帕金森定理

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文件:Parkinson's Law Book.jpg
UK First edition book cover

Parkinson's law is the adage that "work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion."[1] It is sometimes applied to the growth of bureaucracy in an organization.



thumb|right|UK First edition book cover Parkinson's law is the adage that "work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion." It is sometimes applied to the growth of bureaucracy in an organization.

第一版《帕金森定律》一书的封面上有这样一句格言: “工作的扩展是为了填补完成它所需要的时间。”它有时被应用于一个组织中官僚主义的增长。

History

Articulated by Cyril Northcote Parkinson as part of the first sentence of an essay published in The Economist in 1955 and since republished online,[1][2] it was reprinted with other essays in the book Parkinson's Law: The Pursuit of Progress (London, John Murray, 1958). He derived the dictum from his extensive experience in the British Civil Service.

Articulated by Cyril Northcote Parkinson as part of the first sentence of an essay published in The Economist in 1955 and since republished online, it was reprinted with other essays in the book Parkinson's Law: The Pursuit of Progress (London, John Murray, 1958). He derived the dictum from his extensive experience in the British Civil Service.

历史 = = 西里尔 · 诺斯科特 · 帕金森1955年在《经济学人》上发表的一篇文章的第一句话中提到了这个问题,后来又在网上重新发表,这篇文章和其他文章一起被重印在《帕金森定律: 追求进步》一书中(伦敦,约翰 · 默里,1958年)。他的格言来自于他在英国公务员队伍中的丰富经验。

A current form of the law is not the one to which Parkinson referred by that name in the article, but rather a mathematical equation describing the rate at which bureaucracies expand over time. Much of the essay is dedicated to a summary of purportedly scientific observations supporting the law, such as the increase in the number of employees at the Colonial Office while the British Empire declined (he showed that it had its greatest number of staff when it was folded into the Foreign Office due to a lack of colonies to administer). He explained this growth using two forces: (1) "An official wants to multiply subordinates, not rivals," and (2) "Officials make work for each other." He noted that the number employed in a bureaucracy rose by 5–7% per year "irrespective of any variation in the amount of work (if any) to be done."

A current form of the law is not the one to which Parkinson referred by that name in the article, but rather a mathematical equation describing the rate at which bureaucracies expand over time. Much of the essay is dedicated to a summary of purportedly scientific observations supporting the law, such as the increase in the number of employees at the Colonial Office while the British Empire declined (he showed that it had its greatest number of staff when it was folded into the Foreign Office due to a lack of colonies to administer). He explained this growth using two forces: (1) "An official wants to multiply subordinates, not rivals," and (2) "Officials make work for each other." He noted that the number employed in a bureaucracy rose by 5–7% per year "irrespective of any variation in the amount of work (if any) to be done."

帕金森在文章中提到的定律并不是现在这种形式,而是描述官僚机构随着时间的推移扩张速度的数学方程式。这篇文章的大部分是用来总结支持这项法律的据称是科学的观察,例如在大英帝国衰落期间,殖民局雇员人数的增加(他表明,由于缺乏殖民地管理,殖民局并入外交部时,其员工人数最多)。他用两种力量解释了这种增长: (1)“一个官员想要增加下属,而不是竞争对手”和(2)“官员让彼此工作。”他指出,在官僚机构工作的人数每年增加5-7% ,“而不考虑任何工作量的变化(如果有的话)。”

Parkinson's Law was translated into many languages. It was highly popular in the Soviet Union and its sphere of influence.[3] In 1986, Alessandro Natta complained about the swelling bureaucracy in Italy. Mikhail Gorbachev responded that "Parkinson's law works everywhere."[4]

Parkinson's Law was translated into many languages. It was highly popular in the Soviet Union and its sphere of influence. In 1986, Alessandro Natta complained about the swelling bureaucracy in Italy. Mikhail Gorbachev responded that "Parkinson's law works everywhere."

帕金森定律被翻译成多种语言。它在苏联和苏维埃势力范围非常受欢迎。1986年,阿雷桑德罗·纳塔抱怨意大利日益膨胀的官僚主义。米哈伊尔·戈尔巴乔夫回答说: “帕金森定律在任何地方都适用。”

Corollaries

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The first-referenced meaning of the law has dominated, and sprouted several corollaries, the best known being the Stock–Sanford模板:Who corollary to Parkinson's law: /* Styling for Template:Quote */ .templatequote { overflow: hidden; margin: 1em 0; padding: 0 40px; } .templatequote .templatequotecite {

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The first-referenced meaning of the law has dominated, and sprouted several corollaries, the best known being the Stock–Sanford corollary to Parkinson's law:


该定律的第一个参考意义占据了主导地位,并产生了若干推论,其中最著名的是斯托克-桑福德推论的帕金森定律:

Other corollaries include Horstman's corollary to Parkinson's law, coined by Mark Horstman of website manager-tools.com:[5]

Other corollaries include Horstman's corollary to Parkinson's law, coined by Mark Horstman of website manager-tools.com:

其他推论包括霍斯特曼对帕金森定律的推论,这是由 manager-tools.com 网站的 Mark Horstman 提出的:

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the Asimov corollary to Parkinson's law:

the Asimov corollary to Parkinson's law:

阿西莫夫对帕金森定律的推论:

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as well as corollaries relating to computers, such as:

as well as corollaries relating to computers, such as:

以及与计算机有关的推论,例如:

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Generalization

The law can be generalized further as: /* Styling for Template:Quote */ .templatequote { overflow: hidden; margin: 1em 0; padding: 0 40px; } .templatequote .templatequotecite {

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The law can be generalized further as:


= = 概括 = = 这个定律可以进一步概括为:

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An extension is often added:


一个扩展通常会被添加:

This generalization has come to resemble what some economists regard as the law of demand – namely, the lower the price of a service or commodity, the greater the quantity demanded. This is also referred to as induced demand.

This generalization has come to resemble what some economists regard as the law of demand – namely, the lower the price of a service or commodity, the greater the quantity demanded. This is also referred to as induced demand.

这种概括已经开始类似于一些经济学家所认为的需求定律——也就是说,服务或商品的价格越低,需求量就越大。这也被称为诱导需求。

Formula

Observing that the promotion of employees necessitated the hiring of subordinates, and that time used answering minutes requires more work; Parkinson states: "In any public administrative department not actually at war the staff increase may be expected to follow this formula" (for a given year) [1]

Observing that the promotion of employees necessitated the hiring of subordinates, and that time used answering minutes requires more work; Parkinson states: "In any public administrative department not actually at war the staff increase may be expected to follow this formula" (for a given year)

= = Formula = = 注意到雇员的晋升需要雇用下属,而回答会议记录所用的时间需要做更多的工作; 帕金森说:”在任何实际上没有处于战争状态的公共行政部门,工作人员的增加可能会遵循这一公式”(某一年)

[math]\displaystyle{ x=\frac{2k^m+P}{n} }[/math]

x=\frac{2k^m+P}{n}

2 k ^ m + p }{ n }

  • x – number of new employees to be hired annually
  • k – number of employees who want to be promoted by hiring new employees
  • m – number of working hours per person for the preparation of internal memoranda (micropolitics)
  • P – difference: age at hiring − age at retirement
  • n – number of administrative files actually completed
  • x – number of new employees to be hired annually
  • k – number of employees who want to be promoted by hiring new employees
  • m – number of working hours per person for the preparation of internal memoranda (micropolitics)
  • P – difference: age at hiring − age at retirement
  • n – number of administrative files actually completed


  • x ー每年雇用的新雇员人数
  • k ー希望通过雇用新雇员来提升的雇员人数
  • m ー每人拟订内部备忘录(微观政治)的工作时数
  • p ー差别: 雇用年龄ー退休年龄
  • n ー实际完成的行政档案数目

Related efficiency

Parkinson also proposed a rule about the efficiency of administrative councils. He defined a "coefficient of inefficiency" with the number of members as the main determining variable. This is a semi-humorous attempt to define the size at which a committee or other decision-making body becomes completely inefficient.

Parkinson also proposed a rule about the efficiency of administrative councils. He defined a "coefficient of inefficiency" with the number of members as the main determining variable. This is a semi-humorous attempt to define the size at which a committee or other decision-making body becomes completely inefficient.

还提出了一项关于行政委员会效率的规则。他定义了一个以成员数量为主要决定变量的“无效率系数”。这是一种半幽默的尝试,试图界定一个委员会或其他决策机构变得完全低效的规模。

In Parkinson's Law: The Pursuit of Progress, London: John Murray, 1958 a chapter is devoted to the basic question of what he called comitology: how committees, government cabinets, and other such bodies are created and eventually grow irrelevant (or are initially designed as such). (The word comitology has recently been independently invented by the European Union for a different non-humorous meaning.)[6][7]

In a chapter is devoted to the basic question of what he called comitology: how committees, government cabinets, and other such bodies are created and eventually grow irrelevant (or are initially designed as such). (The word comitology has recently been independently invented by the European Union for a different non-humorous meaning.)Oxford English Dictionary

在一章中,他专门讨论了他所谓的 comitology 的基本问题: 委员会、政府内阁和其他这样的机构是如何创建的,并最终变得无关紧要(或者最初是这样设计的)。(comitology 这个词最近被欧盟独立地发明出来,用来表达一个不同的非幽默的意思。)牛津英语词典

Empirical evidence is drawn from historical and contemporary government cabinets. Most often, the minimal size of a state's most powerful and prestigious body is five members. From English history, Parkinson notes a number of bodies that lost power as they grew:

  • The first cabinet was the Council of the Crown, now the House of Lords, which grew from an unknown number to 29, to 50 before 1600, by which time it had lost much of its power.
  • A new body was appointed in 1257, the "Lords of the King's Council", numbering fewer than 10. The body grew, and ceased to meet when it had 172 members.
  • The third incarnation was the Privy Council, initially also numbering fewer than 10 members, rising to 47 in 1679.
  • In 1715, the Privy Council lost power to the Cabinet Council with eight members, rising to 20 by 1725.
  • Around 1740, the Cabinet Council was superseded by an inner group, called the Cabinet, initially with five members. At the time of Parkinson's study (the 1950s), the Cabinet was still the official governing body. Parkinson observed that, from 1939 on, there was an effort to save the Cabinet as an institution. The membership had been fluctuating from a high of 23 members in 1939, down to 18 in 1954.

Empirical evidence is drawn from historical and contemporary government cabinets. Most often, the minimal size of a state's most powerful and prestigious body is five members. From English history, Parkinson notes a number of bodies that lost power as they grew:

  • The first cabinet was the Council of the Crown, now the House of Lords, which grew from an unknown number to 29, to 50 before 1600, by which time it had lost much of its power.
  • A new body was appointed in 1257, the "Lords of the King's Council", numbering fewer than 10. The body grew, and ceased to meet when it had 172 members.
  • The third incarnation was the Privy Council, initially also numbering fewer than 10 members, rising to 47 in 1679.
  • In 1715, the Privy Council lost power to the Cabinet Council with eight members, rising to 20 by 1725.
  • Around 1740, the Cabinet Council was superseded by an inner group, called the Cabinet, initially with five members. At the time of Parkinson's study (the 1950s), the Cabinet was still the official governing body. Parkinson observed that, from 1939 on, there was an effort to save the Cabinet as an institution. The membership had been fluctuating from a high of 23 members in 1939, down to 18 in 1954.

经验证明是从历史和当代的政府内阁中抽取的。最常见的情况是,一个国家最有权力和声望的机构的最小规模是五个成员。从英国历史上,帕金森注意到许多机构随着权力的增长而失去权力:

  • 第一个内阁是皇家委员会,现在是上议院,它在1600年前从一个不知名的数字增长到29个,到50个,到那时它已经失去了大部分权力。
  • 1257年设立了一个不到10人的新机构,称为”国王议会上议院”。这个团体不断成长,当它有172个成员的时候,它就不再聚会了。
  • 第三届枢密院最初也只有不到10名成员,1679年增至47名。
  • 1715年,枢密院以8名成员失去了内阁委员会的权力,到1725年增加到20名。
  • 大约在1740年,内阁会议被一个名为内阁的内部小组所取代,最初有五名成员。在帕金森研究的时候(20世纪50年代) ,内阁仍然是官方的管理机构。帕金森注意到,从1939年开始,人们努力挽救内阁这一机构。成员国数量从1939年的23个上升到1954年的18个。

A detailed mathematical expression is proposed by Parkinson for the coefficient of inefficiency, featuring many possible influences. In 2008, an attempt was made to empirically verify the proposed model.[8] Parkinson's conjecture that membership exceeding a number "between 19.9 and 22.4" makes a committee manifestly inefficient seems well justified by the evidence proposed. Less certain is the optimal number of members, which must lie between three (a logical minimum) and 20. (Within a group of 20, individual discussions may occur, diluting the power of the leader.) That it may be eight seems arguable but is not supported by observation: no contemporary government in Parkinson's data set had eight members, and only the unfortunate king Charles I of England had a Committee of State of that size.

A detailed mathematical expression is proposed by Parkinson for the coefficient of inefficiency, featuring many possible influences. In 2008, an attempt was made to empirically verify the proposed model.. Parkinson's conjecture that membership exceeding a number "between 19.9 and 22.4" makes a committee manifestly inefficient seems well justified by the evidence proposed. Less certain is the optimal number of members, which must lie between three (a logical minimum) and 20. (Within a group of 20, individual discussions may occur, diluting the power of the leader.) That it may be eight seems arguable but is not supported by observation: no contemporary government in Parkinson's data set had eight members, and only the unfortunate king Charles I of England had a Committee of State of that size.

帕金森提出了无效系数的详细数学表达式,具有许多可能的影响。在2008年,试图通过实证检验所提出的模型。.帕金森推测,成员数目超过“19.9到22.4”,使委员会显然效率低下,似乎是有充分理由的证据提出。不太确定的是最佳成员数,它必须介于3个(逻辑上的最小值)和20个之间。(在一个20人的小组里,可能会发生个别的讨论,这会削弱领导者的权力。)可能是8个似乎有争议,但没有得到观察的支持: 在帕金森的数据集中,没有一个当代政府有8个成员,只有不幸的英格兰国王查理一世有这么大的国家委员会。

Other topics

Other chapters relate to what time to arrive at a cocktail party, how best to select applicants, what is the best age to retire, and "injelitance": the disastrous rise to authority of individuals with an unusually high combination of incompetence and jealousy expressed in the chemical formula I3J5.

Other chapters relate to what time to arrive at a cocktail party, how best to select applicants, what is the best age to retire, and "injelitance": the disastrous rise to authority of individuals with an unusually high combination of incompetence and jealousy expressed in the chemical formula I3J5.

= = 其他主题 = = 其他章节涉及到什么时间到达鸡尾酒会,如何最好地选择申请人,什么是最佳退休年龄,以及“伤害”: 灾难性的崛起的个人权威与不称职和嫉妒的高度组合在化学式 i3j5中表达。

He also wrote the book Mrs. Parkinson's Law: and Other Studies in Domestic Science.

He also wrote the book Mrs. Parkinson's Law: and Other Studies in Domestic Science.

他还写了《帕金森夫人定律: 和其他家庭科学研究》一书。

See also

  • Gustafson's law
  • Hofstadter's law
  • Lewis–Mogridge Position
  • Induced demand
  • Jevons paradox
  • List of eponymous laws
  • Parkinson's law of triviality
  • Peter principle
  • Planning fallacy
  • Snackwell effect
  • Student syndrome
  • Time management
  • Time to completion

= = = 古斯塔夫森定律

  • 刘易斯-莫格里奇定律
  • 诱导需求
  • 杰文斯悖论
  • 同名定律
  • 帕金森定律
  • 彼得原理
  • 规划谬误 · 斯纳克韦尔效应
  • 学生综合症
  • 时间管理
  • 完成时间

References

模板:Reflist

Further reading

  • .
  • Planet Money Episode 877: "The Laws Of The Office", 21 November 2018, NPR

= 进一步阅读 = =

  • Planet Money Episode 877: “ The Laws Of The Office”,2018年11月21日,NPR

External links

  • .
  • .
  • C. Northcote Parkinson, Parkinson's Law - extract (1958)

= = 外部链接 =

  • .
  • 帕金森定律西里尔·诺斯古德·帕金森(1958)

模板:Authority control

Category:Adages Category:Fiscal policy Law Category:Organizational theory Category:The Economist Category:Economics laws

类别: 格言类别: 财政政策法律类别: 组织行为学类别: 经济学家类别: 经济学法律


This page was moved from wikipedia:en:Parkinson's law. Its edit history can be viewed at 帕金森定理/edithistory