灰蛊

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25px  此article介紹的是the doomsday scenario。For the video game, see Grey Goo.

Gray goo (also can be spelled as: grey goo) is a hypothetical global catastrophic scenario involving molecular nanotechnology in which out-of-control self-replicating machines consume all biomass on Earth while building more of themselves, a scenario that has been called ecophagy (the literal consumption of the ecosystem). The original idea assumed machines were designed to have this capability, while popularizations have assumed that machines might somehow gain this capability by accident.

Gray goo (also can be spelled as: grey goo) is a hypothetical global catastrophic scenario involving molecular nanotechnology in which out-of-control self-replicating machines consume all biomass on Earth while building more of themselves, a scenario that has been called ecophagy (the literal consumption of the ecosystem). The original idea assumed machines were designed to have this capability, while popularizations have assumed that machines might somehow gain this capability by accident.

灰色粘性物质(也可以拼写为: 灰色粘性物质)是一个假想的全球性灾难场景，其中包括失控的自我复制机器消耗地球上所有的生物质，同时建造更多的自己，这种场景被称为生态食用(生态系统的字面消耗)。最初的想法是假设机器被设计成具有这种能力，而普及化则是假设机器可能无意中获得这种能力。

Self-replicating machines of the macroscopic variety were originally described by mathematician John von Neumann, and are sometimes referred to as von Neumann machines or clanking replicators. The term gray goo was coined by nanotechnology pioneer K. Eric Drexler in his 1986 book Engines of Creation. In 2004, he stated "I wish I had never used the term 'gray goo'." Engines of Creation mentions "gray goo" as a thought experiment in two paragraphs and a note, while the popularized idea of gray goo was first publicized in a mass-circulation magazine, Omni, in November 1986.

Self-replicating machines of the macroscopic variety were originally described by mathematician John von Neumann, and are sometimes referred to as von Neumann machines or clanking replicators. The term gray goo was coined by nanotechnology pioneer K. Eric Drexler in his 1986 book Engines of Creation. In 2004, he stated "I wish I had never used the term 'gray goo'." Engines of Creation mentions "gray goo" as a thought experiment in two paragraphs and a note, while the popularized idea of gray goo was first publicized in a mass-circulation magazine, Omni, in November 1986.Nanotechnology: Molecular Machines that Mimic Life, OMNI, Vol. 9 No. 6, November 1986, p. 56ff.

宏观多样性的自我复制机器最初由数学家约翰·冯·诺伊曼描述，有时被称为冯 · 诺依曼机器或叮当作响的复制机。灰色粘性物质这个术语是由纳米技术先驱 k · 埃里克 · 德雷克斯勒在他1986年出版的《创造的引擎》一书中创造的。2004年，他说: “我希望我从来没有用过‘ gray goo’这个词。”创造的引擎提到“灰色粘性物质”作为一个思想实验，在两个段落和一个说明，而灰色粘性物质的流行的想法首次公布在大规模发行的杂志，Omni，在1986年11月。纳米技术: 模拟生命的分子机器，OMNI，Vol。9不。6，November 1986，p. 56 ff.

Definition

The term was first used by molecular nanotechnology pioneer K. Eric Drexler in Engines of Creation (1986). In Chapter 4, Engines Of Abundance, Drexler illustrates both exponential growth and inherent limits (not gray goo) by describing "dry" nanomachines that can function only if given special raw materials:

Imagine such a replicator floating in a bottle of chemicals, making copies of itself...the first replicator assembles a copy in one thousand seconds, the two replicators then build two more in the next thousand seconds, the four build another four, and the eight build another eight. At the end of ten hours, there are not thirty-six new replicators, but over 68 billion. In less than a day, they would weigh a ton; in less than two days, they would outweigh the Earth; in another four hours, they would exceed the mass of the Sun and all the planets combined — if the bottle of chemicals hadn't run dry long before.

The term was first used by molecular nanotechnology pioneer K. Eric Drexler in Engines of Creation (1986). In Chapter 4, Engines Of Abundance, Drexler illustrates both exponential growth and inherent limits (not gray goo) by describing "dry" nanomachines that can function only if given special raw materials:

= = 定义 = = 这个词最早是由分子纳米技术的先驱 k. Eric Drexler 在《创造的发动机》(1986)中使用的。在《丰饶的引擎》第四章中，德雷克斯勒通过描述只有在特殊原材料条件下才能发挥作用的“干”纳米机械，阐明了指数增长和固有的局限性(不是灰色粘性物质) :

According to Drexler, the term was popularized by an article in science fiction magazine Omni, which also popularized the term "nanotechnology" in the same issue. Drexler says arms control is a far greater issue than gray goo "nanobugs".

According to Drexler, the term was popularized by an article in science fiction magazine Omni, which also popularized the term "nanotechnology" in the same issue. Drexler says arms control is a far greater issue than gray goo "nanobugs".Dr Eric Drexler - Nanotechnology: The Big Picture

根据德雷克斯勒的说法，这个术语是因为科幻杂志《 Omni 》上的一篇文章而流行起来的，这篇文章也在同一期杂志上推广了“纳米技术”这个术语。德雷克斯勒说，军备控制是一个比灰色粘性物质“纳米虫”更大的问题

In a History Channel broadcast, a contrasting idea (a kind of gray goo) is referred to in a futuristic End time scenario:

In a common practice, billions of nanobots are released to clean up an oil spill off the coast of Louisiana. However, due to a programming error, the nanobots devour all carbon based objects, instead of just the hydrocarbons of the oil. The nanobots destroy everything, all the while, replicating themselves. Within days, the planet is turned to dust.

In a History Channel broadcast, a contrasting idea (a kind of gray goo) is referred to in a futuristic End time scenario:

在历史频道的一次广播中，一个对比鲜明的想法(一种灰色粘性物质)出现在一个未来世界末日的场景中:

Drexler describes gray goo in Chapter 11 of Engines of Creation:

Early assembler-based replicators could beat the most advanced modern organisms. 'Plants' with 'leaves' no more efficient than today's solar cells could out-compete real plants, crowding the biosphere with an inedible foliage. Tough, omnivorous 'bacteria' could out-compete real bacteria: they could spread like blowing pollen, replicate swiftly, and reduce the biosphere to dust in a matter of days. Dangerous replicators could easily be too tough, small, and rapidly spreading to stop — at least if we made no preparation. We have trouble enough controlling viruses and fruit flies.

Drexler describes gray goo in Chapter 11 of Engines of Creation:

德雷克斯勒在《创造的引擎》第11章中描述了灰色粘性物质:

Drexler notes that the geometric growth made possible by self-replication is inherently limited by the availability of suitable raw materials. Drexler used the term "gray goo" not to indicate color or texture, but to emphasize the difference between "superiority" in terms of human values and "superiority" in terms of competitive success:

Drexler notes that the geometric growth made possible by self-replication is inherently limited by the availability of suitable raw materials. Drexler used the term "gray goo" not to indicate color or texture, but to emphasize the difference between "superiority" in terms of human values and "superiority" in terms of competitive success:

德雷克斯勒指出，由自我复制公司提供的几何增长是受到合适原材料的固有限制的。德雷克斯勒使用“灰色粘性”一词并不是为了表示颜色或质地，而是为了强调人类价值观方面的“优越性”和竞争成功方面的“优越性”之间的区别:

Though masses of uncontrolled replicators need not be grey or gooey, the term "grey goo" emphasizes that replicators able to obliterate life might be less inspiring than a single species of crabgrass. They might be "superior" in an evolutionary sense, but this need not make them valuable.

Bill Joy, one of the founders of Sun Microsystems, discussed some of the problems with pursuing this technology in his now-famous 2000 article in Wired magazine, titled "Why The Future Doesn't Need Us". In direct response to Joy's concerns, the first quantitative technical analysis of the ecophagy scenario was published in 2000 by nanomedicine pioneer Robert Freitas.

Bill Joy, one of the founders of Sun Microsystems, discussed some of the problems with pursuing this technology in his now-famous 2000 article in Wired magazine, titled "Why The Future Doesn't Need Us". In direct response to Joy's concerns, the first quantitative technical analysis of the ecophagy scenario was published in 2000 by nanomedicine pioneer Robert Freitas.

昇阳电脑的创始人之一 Bill Joy 在2000年《连线》杂志上发表了一篇题为《为什么未来不需要我们》的文章，讨论了追求这项技术的一些问题。为了直接回应乔伊的担忧，纳米医学先驱罗伯特 · 弗雷塔斯于2000年发表了第一份生态食用情景的定量技术分析报告。

Risks and precautions

Drexler more recently conceded that there is no need to build anything that even resembles a potential runaway replicator. This would avoid the problem entirely. In a paper in the journal Nanotechnology, he argues that self-replicating machines are needlessly complex and inefficient. His 1992 technical book on advanced nanotechnologies Nanosystems: Molecular Machinery, Manufacturing, and Computation describes manufacturing systems that are desktop-scale factories with specialized machines in fixed locations and conveyor belts to move parts from place to place. None of these measures would prevent a party from creating a weaponized gray goo, were such a thing possible.

Drexler more recently conceded that there is no need to build anything that even resembles a potential runaway replicator. This would avoid the problem entirely. In a paper in the journal Nanotechnology, he argues that self-replicating machines are needlessly complex and inefficient. His 1992 technical book on advanced nanotechnologies Nanosystems: Molecular Machinery, Manufacturing, and Computation describes manufacturing systems that are desktop-scale factories with specialized machines in fixed locations and conveyor belts to move parts from place to place. None of these measures would prevent a party from creating a weaponized gray goo, were such a thing possible.

= = 风险与防范 = = 德雷克斯勒最近承认，没有必要建造任何类似于潜在失控复制因子的东西。这将完全避免这个问题。在《纳米技术》杂志的一篇论文中，他认为自我复制的机器不必要地复杂和低效。他在1992年出版的技术书籍《纳米技术: 分子机械、制造和计算》(Nanosystems: Molecular Machinery，Manufacturing，and computing)中描述了桌面工厂的制造系统，这些工厂拥有固定位置的专用机器和将零件从一个地方运送到另一个地方的传送带。所有这些措施都不能阻止一个政党创造一个武器化的灰色粘性物质，这样的事情是可能的。

Prince Charles called upon the British Royal Society to investigate the "enormous environmental and social risks" of nanotechnology in a planned report, leading to much media commentary on gray goo. The Royal Society's report on nanoscience was released on 29 July 2004, and declared the possibility of self-replicating machines to lie too far in the future to be of concern to regulators.

Prince Charles called upon the British Royal Society to investigate the "enormous environmental and social risks" of nanotechnology in a planned report, leading to much media commentary on gray goo. The Royal Society's report on nanoscience was released on 29 July 2004, and declared the possibility of self-replicating machines to lie too far in the future to be of concern to regulators.

查尔斯王子在一份计划中的报告中呼吁英国皇家学会对纳米技术的“巨大环境和社会风险”进行调查，这引起了媒体对灰粘性物的大量评论。英国皇家学会(Royal Society)于2004年7月29日发布了一份关于纳米科学的报告，其中宣布，可自我复制的机器的可能性过于遥远，不值得监管机构关注。

More recent analysis in the paper titled Safe Exponential Manufacturing from the Institute of Physics (co-written by Chris Phoenix, Director of Research of the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology, and Eric Drexler), shows that the danger of gray goo is far less likely than originally thought. However, other long-term major risks to society and the environment from nanotechnology have been identified. Drexler has made a somewhat public effort to retract his gray goo hypothesis, in an effort to focus the debate on more realistic threats associated with knowledge-enabled nanoterrorism and other misuses.

More recent analysis in the paper titled Safe Exponential Manufacturing from the Institute of Physics (co-written by Chris Phoenix, Director of Research of the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology, and Eric Drexler), shows that the danger of gray goo is far less likely than originally thought. However, other long-term major risks to society and the environment from nanotechnology have been identified. Drexler has made a somewhat public effort to retract his gray goo hypothesis, in an effort to focus the debate on more realistic threats associated with knowledge-enabled nanoterrorism and other misuses.

最近，物理研究所发表了一篇题为《安全的指数制造》的论文(由负责纳米技术研究中心主任克里斯 · 菲尼克斯和埃里克 · 德雷克斯勒共同撰写) ，其中更多的分析表明，灰色粘性物质的危险性远远低于最初的想象。然而，纳米技术对社会和环境造成的其他长期主要风险已被确定。德雷克斯勒做了一些公开的努力来收回他的灰色粘性假说，试图把争论集中在与知识支持的纳米恐怖主义和其他滥用相关的更现实的威胁上。

In Safe Exponential Manufacturing, which was published in a 2004 issue of Nanotechnology, it was suggested that creating manufacturing systems with the ability to self-replicate by the use of their own energy sources would not be needed. The Foresight Institute also recommended embedding controls in the molecular machines. These controls would be able to prevent anyone from purposely abusing nanotechnology, and therefore avoid the gray goo scenario.

In Safe Exponential Manufacturing, which was published in a 2004 issue of Nanotechnology, it was suggested that creating manufacturing systems with the ability to self-replicate by the use of their own energy sources would not be needed. The Foresight Institute also recommended embedding controls in the molecular machines. These controls would be able to prevent anyone from purposely abusing nanotechnology, and therefore avoid the gray goo scenario.

在2004年《纳米技术》杂志上发表的《安全指数制造》中，有人提出，不需要建立能够通过使用自己的能源自我复制的制造系统。前瞻学会还建议在分子机器中嵌入控制器。这些控制将能够防止任何人故意滥用纳米技术，从而避免灰色粘性场景。

= 伦理与混乱 =

Gray goo is a useful construct for considering low-probability, high-impact outcomes from emerging technologies. Thus, it is a useful tool in the ethics of technology. Daniel A. Vallero applied it as a worst-case scenario thought experiment for technologists contemplating possible risks from advancing a technology. This requires that a decision tree or event tree include even extremely low probability events if such events may have an extremely negative and irreversible consequence, i.e. application of the precautionary principle. Dianne Irving admonishes that "any error in science will have a rippling effect". Vallero adapted this reference to chaos theory to emerging technologies, wherein slight permutations of initial conditions can lead to unforeseen and profoundly negative downstream effects, for which the technologist and the new technology's proponents must be held accountable.

Gray goo is a useful construct for considering low-probability, high-impact outcomes from emerging technologies. Thus, it is a useful tool in the ethics of technology. Daniel A. Vallero applied it as a worst-case scenario thought experiment for technologists contemplating possible risks from advancing a technology. This requires that a decision tree or event tree include even extremely low probability events if such events may have an extremely negative and irreversible consequence, i.e. application of the precautionary principle. Dianne Irving admonishes that "any error in science will have a rippling effect". Vallero adapted this reference to chaos theory to emerging technologies, wherein slight permutations of initial conditions can lead to unforeseen and profoundly negative downstream effects, for which the technologist and the new technology's proponents must be held accountable.

灰色粘性是一个有用的构想，考虑低概率，高影响的结果，从新兴技术。因此，它是技术伦理学的一个有用的工具。应用它作为技术专家思考技术进步可能带来的风险的绝境求生手册思想实验。这就要求一个决策树或事件树包含甚至是极低概率的事件，如果这些事件可能有一个极其消极和不可逆的后果，例如。预防原则的申请。Dianne Irving 告诫说“科学上的任何错误都会产生涟漪效应”。瓦勒罗将这种参考混沌理论应用于新兴技术，其中初始条件的轻微排列可能导致不可预见的深刻的负面下游效应，对此技术专家和新技术的支持者必须负责。

In fiction

Main article: Self-replicating machines in fiction

See also

• Alkahest
• Astrochicken
• Claytronics
• Ice-nine
• Microswimmer
• Molecular machines
• Paperclip maximizer
• Programmable matter
• Self-replicating machine
• Self-reconfiguring modular robot
• Smartdust
• Synthetic biology
• Utility fog

• Alkahest
• Astrochicken
• Claytronics
• Ice-nine
• Microswimmer
• Molecular machines
• Paperclip maximizer
• Programmable matter
• Self-replicating machine
• Self-reconfiguring modular robot
• Smartdust
• Synthetic biology
• Utility fog

分子游泳运动员分子游泳运动员回形针最大化可程式化材料自我复制机械自重构智能尘合成生物学效用迷雾

Further reading

• Lynn Margulis and Dorion Sagan—What Is Life? (1995). Simon & Schuster.
• Bill Bryson A Short History of Nearly Everything (2003)
• Green Goo—Life in the Era of Humane Genocide by Nick Szabo
• Green Goo: Nanotechnology Comes Alive!
• Green Goo: The New Nanothreat from Wired

= 进一步阅读 = =

• Lynn Margulis 和 Dorion sagan ー生命是什么？(1995).Simon & Schuster.
• Bill Bryson a Short History of Nearly Everything (2003)
• Green Goo ー life in the Era of Humane Genocide by Nick Szabo
• Green Goo: Nanotechnology Comes Alive！
• Green Goo: The New Nanothreat from Wired

External links

• Some Limits to Global Ecophagy by Biovorous Nanoreplicators, with Public Policy Recommendations
• Safe exponential manufacturing Paper critical of "grey goo," summarized in article Nanotechnology pioneer slays "grey goo" myths
• Online edition of the Royal Society's report Nanoscience and nanotechnologies: opportunities and uncertainties
• UK Government & Royal Society commission on Nanotechnology and Nanoscience
• Nanotechnology: Drexler and Smalley make the case for and against 'molecular assemblers' (Richard Smalley argues that laws of chemistry imply it will be impossible to ever create "self-replicating nanobots" whose abilities to assemble molecules are significantly different than those of biological self-replicators. Some pro-nanobot responses to Smalley's argument can be found at Debate About Assemblers — Smalley Rebuttal, The Drexler-Smalley debate on molecular assembly, Of Chemistry, Nanobots, and Policy, and Is the Revolution Real?)
• Nanotechnology and the Grey Goo Problem, BBC

• Some Limits to Global Ecophagy by Biovorous Nanoreplicators, with Public Policy Recommendations
• Safe exponential manufacturing Paper critical of "grey goo," summarized in article Nanotechnology pioneer slays "grey goo" myths
• Online edition of the Royal Society's report Nanoscience and nanotechnologies: opportunities and uncertainties
• UK Government & Royal Society commission on Nanotechnology and Nanoscience
• Nanotechnology: Drexler and Smalley make the case for and against 'molecular assemblers' (Richard Smalley argues that laws of chemistry imply it will be impossible to ever create "self-replicating nanobots" whose abilities to assemble molecules are significantly different than those of biological self-replicators. Some pro-nanobot responses to Smalley's argument can be found at Debate About Assemblers — Smalley Rebuttal, The Drexler-Smalley debate on molecular assembly, Of Chemistry, Nanobots, and Policy, and Is the Revolution Real?)
• Nanotechnology and the Grey Goo Problem, BBC

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = .一些支持纳米机器人的反应可以在关于汇编者的辩论中找到ーー斯莫利反驳、德雷克斯勒-斯莫利关于分子组装的辩论、化学、纳米机器人和政策、以及革命是真的吗?)

• 纳米技术与灰色粘性物问题，BBC

Category:Artificial life Category:Doomsday scenarios Category:1980s neologisms Category:Nanotechnology Category:Robotics concepts Category:Self-replicating machines Category:Thought experiments in ethics

类别: 人工生命类别: 末日情景类别: 1980年代新词类别: 纳米技术类别: 机器人概念类别: 自我复制机器类别: 伦理学中的思想实验

This page was moved from wikipedia:en:Gray goo. Its edit history can be viewed at 灰蛊/edithistory