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另一个例子是，上市公司的审计师必须就上市公司的财务报表是否“在所有重大方面得到公允陈述”达成正式意见，这需要对事实数据和证据进行广泛的分析，以支持他们的观点。在从事实到观点的飞跃中，总是存在着观点错误的可能性。

另一个例子是，上市公司的审计师必须就上市公司的财务报表是否“在所有重大方面得到公允陈述”达成正式意见，这需要对事实数据和证据进行广泛的分析，以支持他们的观点。在从事实到观点的飞跃中，总是存在着观点错误的可能性。

===Cognitive biases 认知偏差===

===认知偏差===

There are a variety of [[cognitive bias]]es that can adversely affect analysis. For example, [[confirmation bias]] is the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions. In addition, individuals may discredit information that does not support their views.

各种各样的'''认知偏差cognitive biases'''会对分析产生不利影响。例如，'''<font color = '#ff8000'>证实偏见confirmation bias</font>'''是指人们倾向于以确认自己先入之见的方式来寻找或解释信息。此外，人们都可能会质疑那些与他们观点不相符的信息。

 

为了了解和克服这些偏见，分析师可能会接受专门培训。退休的美国中情局分析师Richards Heuer在他的《'''<font color = '#ff8000'>情报分析心理学Psychology of Intelligence Analysis</font>'''》一书中写道，分析师应该清楚地描述他们的预设和推断链，明确结论中包含的不确定性的程度和来源。他强调有助于提出和辩论不同观点的程序。<ref name="Heuer1">{{cite web|url=https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/art3.html|title=Introduction|work=cia.gov}}</ref>

 

Analysts may be trained specifically to be aware of these biases and how to overcome them. In his book ''Psychology of Intelligence Analysis'', retired CIA analyst [[Richards Heuer]] wrote that analysts should clearly delineate their assumptions and chains of inference and specify the degree and source of the uncertainty involved in the conclusions. He emphasized procedures to help surface and debate alternative points of view.<ref name="Heuer1">{{cite web|url=https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/art3.html|title=Introduction|work=cia.gov}}</ref>

 

 

===Innumeracy 数学盲===

===Innumeracy 数学盲===