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添加2,300字节 、 2020年11月24日 (二) 23:01
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[[File:SIRD.svg|thumb|SIRD模型示意图,初始值<math>S(0)=997,I(0)=3, R(0)=0</math>,感染率<math>\beta=0.4</math>,康复率<math>\gamma=0.035</math>,死亡率 <math>\mu=0.005</math>]]
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[[File:SIRD.svg|thumb|Diagram of the SIRD model with initial values <math>S(0)=997, I(0)=3, R(0)=0</math> and the rates for infection <math>\beta=0.4</math>, recovery <math>\gamma=0.035</math> and mortality <math>\mu=0.005</math>]]
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Diagram of the SIRD model with initial values <math>S(0)=997, I(0)=3, R(0)=0</math> and the rates for infection <math>\beta=0.4</math>, recovery <math>\gamma=0.035</math> and mortality <math>\mu=0.005</math>
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[[File:SIRD model anim.gif|thumb|SIRD模型动画,初始值<math display="inline">S(0)=997I(0)=3, R(0)=0</math>,初始感染率 <math display="inline">\beta=0.5</math>和恒定康复率 <math display="inline">\gamma=0.035</math> 和死亡率<math display="inline">\mu=0.005</math>。如果既没有药物也没有疫苗可用,只有通过适当的措施(例如“社会距离”)才有可能降低感染率(通常称为“平缓曲线”)。这个动画展示了降低感染率76% 的效果(<math display="inline">\beta=0.5</math>下降到<math display="inline">\beta=0.12</math>)。]]
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[图6:Diagram of the SIRD model with initial values <math>S(0)=997, I(0)=3, R(0)=0</math> and the rates for infection <math>\beta=0.4</math>, recovery <math>\gamma=0.035</math> and mortality <math>\mu=0.005</math>SIRD模型示意图,初始值<math>S(0)=997,I(0)=3, R(0)=0</math>,感染率<math>\beta=0.4</math>,康复率<math>\gamma=0.035</math>,死亡率 <math>\mu=0.005</math>]
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[[File:SIRD model anim.gif|thumb|Animation of the SIRD model with initial values <math display="inline">S(0)=997, I(0)=3, R(0)=0</math>, initial rate for infection <math display="inline">\beta=0.5</math> and constant rates for recovery <math display="inline">\gamma=0.035</math> and mortality <math display="inline">\mu=0.005</math>. If there is neither medicine nor vaccination available, it is only possible to reduce the infection rate (often referred to as „flattening the curve“) by appropriate measures (e.&nbsp;g. „social distancing“). This animation shows the impact of reducing the infection rate by 76&nbsp;% (from <math display="inline">\beta=0.5</math> down to <math display="inline">\beta=0.12</math>).]]
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[图7:Animation of the SIRD model with initial values <math display="inline">S(0)=997, I(0)=3, R(0)=0</math>, initial rate for infection <math display="inline">\beta=0.5</math> and constant rates for recovery <math display="inline">\gamma=0.035</math> and mortality <math display="inline">\mu=0.005</math>. If there is neither medicine nor vaccination available, it is only possible to reduce the infection rate (often referred to as „flattening the curve“) by appropriate measures (e.&nbsp;g. „social distancing“). This animation shows the impact of reducing the infection rate by 76&nbsp;% (from <math display="inline">\beta=0.5</math> down to <math display="inline">\beta=0.12</math>)SIRD模型动画,初始值<math display="inline">S(0)=997I(0)=3, R(0)=0</math>,初始感染率 <math display="inline">\beta=0.5</math>和恒定康复率 <math display="inline">\gamma=0.035</math> 和死亡率<math display="inline">\mu=0.005</math>。如果既没有药物也没有疫苗可用,只有通过适当的措施(例如“社会距离”)才有可能降低感染率(通常称为“平缓曲线”)。这个动画展示了降低感染率76% 的效果(从 <math display="inline">\beta=0.5</math>下降到<math display="inline">\beta=0.12</math>)。]
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The ''Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased-Model'' differentiates between ''Recovered'' (meaning specifically individuals having survived the disease and now immune) and ''Deceased''.{{cn|date=June 2020}} This model uses the following system of differential equations:
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这里<math>\beta, \gamma, \mu</math>分别是感染率,康复率和死亡率。<ref>The first and second differential equations are transformed and brought to the same form as for the ''SIR model'' above.</ref>
 
这里<math>\beta, \gamma, \mu</math>分别是感染率,康复率和死亡率。<ref>The first and second differential equations are transformed and brought to the same form as for the ''SIR model'' above.</ref>
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===MSIR模型===
 
===MSIR模型===
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