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| ===潜在危害=== | | ===潜在危害=== |
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| Widespread use of artificial intelligence could have [[unintended consequences]] that are dangerous or undesirable. Scientists from the [[Future of Life Institute]], among others, described some short-term research goals to see how AI influences the economy, the laws and ethics that are involved with AI and how to minimize AI security risks. In the long-term, the scientists have proposed to continue optimizing function while minimizing possible security risks that come along with new technologies.<ref>Russel, Stuart., Daniel Dewey, and Max Tegmark. Research Priorities for Robust and Beneficial Artificial Intelligence. AI Magazine 36:4 (2015). 8 December 2016.</ref> | | Widespread use of artificial intelligence could have [[unintended consequences]] that are dangerous or undesirable. Scientists from the [[Future of Life Institute]], among others, described some short-term research goals to see how AI influences the economy, the laws and ethics that are involved with AI and how to minimize AI security risks. In the long-term, the scientists have proposed to continue optimizing function while minimizing possible security risks that come along with new technologies.<ref>Russel, Stuart., Daniel Dewey, and Max Tegmark. Research Priorities for Robust and Beneficial Artificial Intelligence. AI Magazine 36:4 (2015). 8 December 2016.</ref> |
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| 物理学家斯蒂芬·霍金、微软创始人比尔·盖茨和 SpaceX 公司创始人埃隆·马斯克对AI进化到人类无法控制的程度表示担忧,霍金认为这可能“会导致人类末日”。<ref>{{cite news|last1=Rawlinson|first1=Kevin|title=Microsoft's Bill Gates insists AI is a threat|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/31047780|work=BBC News|accessdate=30 January 2015|url-status=live|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20150129183607/http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/31047780|archivedate=29 January 2015|df=dmy-all|date=2015-01-29}}</ref><ref name="Holley">{{Cite news|title = Bill Gates on dangers of artificial intelligence: 'I don't understand why some people are not concerned'|url = https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2015/01/28/bill-gates-on-dangers-of-artificial-intelligence-dont-understand-why-some-people-are-not-concerned/|work= The Washington Post|date = 28 January 2015|access-date = 30 October 2015|issn = 0190-8286|first = Peter|last = Holley|url-status=live|archiveurl = https://web.archive.org/web/20151030054330/https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2015/01/28/bill-gates-on-dangers-of-artificial-intelligence-dont-understand-why-some-people-are-not-concerned/|archivedate = 30 October 2015|df = dmy-all}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|title = Elon Musk: artificial intelligence is our biggest existential threat|url = https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/oct/27/elon-musk-artificial-intelligence-ai-biggest-existential-threat|work= The Guardian|accessdate = 30 October 2015|first = Samuel|last = Gibbs|url-status=live|archiveurl = https://web.archive.org/web/20151030054330/http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/oct/27/elon-musk-artificial-intelligence-ai-biggest-existential-threat|archivedate = 30 October 2015|df = dmy-all|date = 2014-10-27}}</ref> | | 物理学家斯蒂芬·霍金、微软创始人比尔·盖茨和 SpaceX 公司创始人埃隆·马斯克对AI进化到人类无法控制的程度表示担忧,霍金认为这可能“会导致人类末日”。<ref>{{cite news|last1=Rawlinson|first1=Kevin|title=Microsoft's Bill Gates insists AI is a threat|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/31047780|work=BBC News|accessdate=30 January 2015|url-status=live|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20150129183607/http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/31047780|archivedate=29 January 2015|df=dmy-all|date=2015-01-29}}</ref><ref name="Holley">{{Cite news|title = Bill Gates on dangers of artificial intelligence: 'I don't understand why some people are not concerned'|url = https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2015/01/28/bill-gates-on-dangers-of-artificial-intelligence-dont-understand-why-some-people-are-not-concerned/|work= The Washington Post|date = 28 January 2015|access-date = 30 October 2015|issn = 0190-8286|first = Peter|last = Holley|url-status=live|archiveurl = https://web.archive.org/web/20151030054330/https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2015/01/28/bill-gates-on-dangers-of-artificial-intelligence-dont-understand-why-some-people-are-not-concerned/|archivedate = 30 October 2015|df = dmy-all}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|title = Elon Musk: artificial intelligence is our biggest existential threat|url = https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/oct/27/elon-musk-artificial-intelligence-ai-biggest-existential-threat|work= The Guardian|accessdate = 30 October 2015|first = Samuel|last = Gibbs|url-status=live|archiveurl = https://web.archive.org/web/20151030054330/http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/oct/27/elon-musk-artificial-intelligence-ai-biggest-existential-threat|archivedate = 30 October 2015|df = dmy-all|date = 2014-10-27}}</ref> |
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| 在《超级智能》一书中,哲学家尼克·博斯特罗姆提出了一个AI将对人类构成威胁的论点。他认为,如果足够智能的AI选择有目标地行动,它将表现出收敛的行为,如获取资源或保护自己不被关机。如果这个AI的目标没有人性,比如一个AI被告知要尽可能多地计算圆周率的位数,那么它可能会伤害人类,以便获得更多的资源或者防止自身被关闭,最终更好地实现目标。博斯特罗姆还强调了向高级AI充分传达人类价值观存在的困难。他假设了一个例子来说明一种南辕北辙的尝试: 给AI一个让人类微笑的目标。博斯特罗姆认为,如果这种情况下的AI变得非常聪明,它可能会采用大多数人类都会感到恐怖的方法,比如“在人类面部肌肉中插入电极,使其产生持续的笑容” ,因为这将是实现让人类微笑的目标的有效方法。<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.ted.com/talks/nick_bostrom_what_happens_when_our_computers_get_smarter_than_we_are/transcript|title=What happens when our computers get smarter than we are?|first=Nick|last=Bostrom|publisher=[[TED (conference)]]|date=2015}}</ref>AI研究人员斯图亚特.J.罗素在他的《人类相容》一书中回应了博斯特罗姆的一些担忧,同时也提出了一种开发可证明有益的机器可能涉及逆强化学习的方法<ref name="HC"/>{{rp|191–193}},这种机器侧重解决不确定性和顺从人类的问题。<ref name="HC">{{cite book |last=Russell |first=Stuart |date=October 8, 2019 |title=Human Compatible: Artificial Intelligence and the Problem of Control |url= |location=United States |publisher=Viking |page= |isbn=978-0-525-55861-3 |author-link=Stuart J. Russell |oclc=1083694322|title-link=Human Compatible }}</ref>{{rp|173}} | | 在《超级智能》一书中,哲学家尼克·博斯特罗姆提出了一个AI将对人类构成威胁的论点。他认为,如果足够智能的AI选择有目标地行动,它将表现出收敛的行为,如获取资源或保护自己不被关机。如果这个AI的目标没有人性,比如一个AI被告知要尽可能多地计算圆周率的位数,那么它可能会伤害人类,以便获得更多的资源或者防止自身被关闭,最终更好地实现目标。博斯特罗姆还强调了向高级AI充分传达人类价值观存在的困难。他假设了一个例子来说明一种南辕北辙的尝试: 给AI一个让人类微笑的目标。博斯特罗姆认为,如果这种情况下的AI变得非常聪明,它可能会采用大多数人类都会感到恐怖的方法,比如“在人类面部肌肉中插入电极,使其产生持续的笑容” ,因为这将是实现让人类微笑的目标的有效方法。<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.ted.com/talks/nick_bostrom_what_happens_when_our_computers_get_smarter_than_we_are/transcript|title=What happens when our computers get smarter than we are?|first=Nick|last=Bostrom|publisher=[[TED (conference)]]|date=2015}}</ref>AI研究人员斯图亚特.J.罗素在他的《人类相容》一书中回应了博斯特罗姆的一些担忧,同时也提出了一种开发可证明有益的机器可能涉及逆强化学习的方法<ref name="HC"/>{{rp|191–193}},这种机器侧重解决不确定性和顺从人类的问题。<ref name="HC">{{cite book |last=Russell |first=Stuart |date=October 8, 2019 |title=Human Compatible: Artificial Intelligence and the Problem of Control |url= |location=United States |publisher=Viking |page= |isbn=978-0-525-55861-3 |author-link=Stuart J. Russell |oclc=1083694322|title-link=Human Compatible }}</ref>{{rp|173}} |
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| Concern over risk from artificial intelligence has led to some high-profile donations and investments. A group of prominent tech titans including [[Peter Thiel]], Amazon Web Services and Musk have committed $1 billion to [[OpenAI]], a nonprofit company aimed at championing responsible AI development.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.chicagotribune.com/bluesky/technology/ct-tech-titans-against-terminators-20151214-story.html|title=Tech titans like Elon Musk are spending $1 billion to save you from terminators|first=Washington|last=Post|url-status=live|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20160607121118/http://www.chicagotribune.com/bluesky/technology/ct-tech-titans-against-terminators-20151214-story.html|archivedate=7 June 2016|df=dmy-all}}</ref> 人工智能领域内专家们的意见是混杂的,担忧和不担忧超越人类能力的AI的观点都占有很大的分额。<ref>{{cite journal}}</ref> Facebook CEO [[Mark Zuckerberg]] believes AI will "unlock a huge amount of positive things," such as curing disease and increasing the safety of autonomous cars.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-zuckerberg-shares-thoughts-elon-musks-ai-2018-5|title=Mark Zuckerberg responds to Elon Musk's paranoia about AI: 'AI is going to... help keep our communities safe.'|last=|first=|date=25 May 2018|website=Business Insider|access-date=2019-05-06}}</ref> In January 2015, Musk donated $10 million to the [[Future of Life Institute]] to fund research on understanding AI decision making. The goal of the institute is to "grow wisdom with which we manage" the growing power of technology. Musk also funds companies developing artificial intelligence such as [[DeepMind]] and [[Vicarious (company)|Vicarious]] to "just keep an eye on what's going on with artificial intelligence.<ref>{{cite web|title = The mysterious artificial intelligence company Elon Musk invested in is developing game-changing smart computers|url = http://www.techinsider.io/mysterious-artificial-intelligence-company-elon-musk-investment-2015-10|website = Tech Insider|accessdate = 30 October 2015|url-status=live|archiveurl = https://web.archive.org/web/20151030165333/http://www.techinsider.io/mysterious-artificial-intelligence-company-elon-musk-investment-2015-10|archivedate = 30 October 2015|df = dmy-all}}</ref> I think there is potentially a dangerous outcome there."<ref>{{cite web|title = Musk-Backed Group Probes Risks Behind Artificial Intelligence|url = https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-01/musk-backed-group-probes-risks-behind-artificial-intelligence|website = Bloomberg.com|accessdate = 30 October 2015|first = Jack|last = Clark|url-status=live|archiveurl = https://web.archive.org/web/20151030202356/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-01/musk-backed-group-probes-risks-behind-artificial-intelligence|archivedate = 30 October 2015|df = dmy-all}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|title = Elon Musk Is Donating $10M Of His Own Money To Artificial Intelligence Research|url = http://www.fastcompany.com/3041007/fast-feed/elon-musk-is-donating-10m-of-his-own-money-to-artificial-intelligence-research|website = Fast Company|accessdate = 30 October 2015|url-status=live|archiveurl = https://web.archive.org/web/20151030202356/http://www.fastcompany.com/3041007/fast-feed/elon-musk-is-donating-10m-of-his-own-money-to-artificial-intelligence-research|archivedate = 30 October 2015|df = dmy-all|date = 2015-01-15}}</ref> | | Concern over risk from artificial intelligence has led to some high-profile donations and investments. A group of prominent tech titans including [[Peter Thiel]], Amazon Web Services and Musk have committed $1 billion to [[OpenAI]], a nonprofit company aimed at championing responsible AI development.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.chicagotribune.com/bluesky/technology/ct-tech-titans-against-terminators-20151214-story.html|title=Tech titans like Elon Musk are spending $1 billion to save you from terminators|first=Washington|last=Post|url-status=live|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20160607121118/http://www.chicagotribune.com/bluesky/technology/ct-tech-titans-against-terminators-20151214-story.html|archivedate=7 June 2016|df=dmy-all}}</ref> 人工智能领域内专家们的意见是混杂的,担忧和不担忧超越人类能力的AI的观点都占有很大的分额。<ref>{{cite journal}}</ref> Facebook CEO [[Mark Zuckerberg]] believes AI will "unlock a huge amount of positive things," such as curing disease and increasing the safety of autonomous cars.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-zuckerberg-shares-thoughts-elon-musks-ai-2018-5|title=Mark Zuckerberg responds to Elon Musk's paranoia about AI: 'AI is going to... help keep our communities safe.'|last=|first=|date=25 May 2018|website=Business Insider|access-date=2019-05-06}}</ref> In January 2015, Musk donated $10 million to the [[Future of Life Institute]] to fund research on understanding AI decision making. The goal of the institute is to "grow wisdom with which we manage" the growing power of technology. Musk also funds companies developing artificial intelligence such as [[DeepMind]] and [[Vicarious (company)|Vicarious]] to "just keep an eye on what's going on with artificial intelligence.<ref>{{cite web|title = The mysterious artificial intelligence company Elon Musk invested in is developing game-changing smart computers|url = http://www.techinsider.io/mysterious-artificial-intelligence-company-elon-musk-investment-2015-10|website = Tech Insider|accessdate = 30 October 2015|url-status=live|archiveurl = https://web.archive.org/web/20151030165333/http://www.techinsider.io/mysterious-artificial-intelligence-company-elon-musk-investment-2015-10|archivedate = 30 October 2015|df = dmy-all}}</ref> I think there is potentially a dangerous outcome there."<ref>{{cite web|title = Musk-Backed Group Probes Risks Behind Artificial Intelligence|url = https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-01/musk-backed-group-probes-risks-behind-artificial-intelligence|website = Bloomberg.com|accessdate = 30 October 2015|first = Jack|last = Clark|url-status=live|archiveurl = https://web.archive.org/web/20151030202356/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-01/musk-backed-group-probes-risks-behind-artificial-intelligence|archivedate = 30 October 2015|df = dmy-all}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|title = Elon Musk Is Donating $10M Of His Own Money To Artificial Intelligence Research|url = http://www.fastcompany.com/3041007/fast-feed/elon-musk-is-donating-10m-of-his-own-money-to-artificial-intelligence-research|website = Fast Company|accessdate = 30 October 2015|url-status=live|archiveurl = https://web.archive.org/web/20151030202356/http://www.fastcompany.com/3041007/fast-feed/elon-musk-is-donating-10m-of-his-own-money-to-artificial-intelligence-research|archivedate = 30 October 2015|df = dmy-all|date = 2015-01-15}}</ref> |
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| 对人工智能潜在风险的担忧引来了一些大额的捐献和投资。一些科技巨头,如彼得·蒂尔、亚马逊云服务、以及马斯克已经把10亿美金给了OpenAI,一个拥护和聚焦于开发可靠的AI的非盈利公司。<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.chicagotribune.com/bluesky/technology/ct-tech-titans-against-terminators-20151214-story.html|title=Tech titans like Elon Musk are spending $1 billion to save you from terminators|first=Washington|last=Post|url-status=live|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20160607121118/http://www.chicagotribune.com/bluesky/technology/ct-tech-titans-against-terminators-20151214-story.html|archivedate=7 June 2016|df=dmy-all}}</ref> 人工智能领域内专家们的观点是混杂的,担忧和不担忧超人类AI的意见都占有很大的份额。其他技术行业的领导者相信AI在目前的形式下是有益的,并将继续帮助人类。甲骨文首席执行官马克·赫德表示,AI“实际上将创造更多的就业机会,而不是减少就业机会” ,因为管理AI系统需要人力<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://searcherp.techtarget.com/news/252460208/Oracle-CEO-Mark-Hurd-sees-no-reason-to-fear-ERP-AI|title=Oracle CEO Mark Hurd sees no reason to fear ERP AI|website=SearchERP|language=en|access-date=2019-05-06}}</ref> 。Facebook 首席执行官马克·扎克伯格相信AI将“解锁大量正面的东西” ,比如治愈疾病和提高自动驾驶汽车的安全性<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-zuckerberg-shares-thoughts-elon-musks-ai-2018-5|title=Mark Zuckerberg responds to Elon Musk's paranoia about AI: 'AI is going to... help keep our communities safe.'|last=|first=|date=25 May 2018|website=Business Insider|access-date=2019-05-06}}</ref>。2015年1月,马斯克向未来生命研究所捐赠了1000万美元,用于研究AI决策。该研究所的目标是“用智能管理”日益增长的技术力量。马斯克还为 DeepMind 和 Vicarious 等开发AI的公司提供资金,以“跟进AI的发展”<ref>{{cite web|title = The mysterious artificial intelligence company Elon Musk invested in is developing game-changing smart computers|url = http://www.techinsider.io/mysterious-artificial-intelligence-company-elon-musk-investment-2015-10|website = Tech Insider|accessdate = 30 October 2015|url-status=live|archiveurl = https://web.archive.org/web/20151030165333/http://www.techinsider.io/mysterious-artificial-intelligence-company-elon-musk-investment-2015-10|archivedate = 30 October 2015|df = dmy-all}}</ref>因为认为这个领域“可能会产生危险的后果”<ref>{{cite web|title = Musk-Backed Group Probes Risks Behind Artificial Intelligence|url = https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-01/musk-backed-group-probes-risks-behind-artificial-intelligence|website = Bloomberg.com|accessdate = 30 October 2015|first = Jack|last = Clark|url-status=live|archiveurl = https://web.archive.org/web/20151030202356/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-01/musk-backed-group-probes-risks-behind-artificial-intelligence|archivedate = 30 October 2015|df = dmy-all}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|title = Elon Musk Is Donating $10M Of His Own Money To Artificial Intelligence Research|url = http://www.fastcompany.com/3041007/fast-feed/elon-musk-is-donating-10m-of-his-own-money-to-artificial-intelligence-research|website = Fast Company|accessdate = 30 October 2015|url-status=live|archiveurl = https://web.archive.org/web/20151030202356/http://www.fastcompany.com/3041007/fast-feed/elon-musk-is-donating-10m-of-his-own-money-to-artificial-intelligence-research|archivedate = 30 October 2015|df = dmy-all|date = 2015-01-15}}</ref>。 | | 对人工智能潜在风险的担忧引来了一些大额的捐献和投资。一些科技巨头,如彼得·蒂尔、亚马逊云服务、以及马斯克已经把10亿美金给了OpenAI,一个拥护和聚焦于开发可靠的AI的非盈利公司。<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.chicagotribune.com/bluesky/technology/ct-tech-titans-against-terminators-20151214-story.html|title=Tech titans like Elon Musk are spending $1 billion to save you from terminators|first=Washington|last=Post|url-status=live|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20160607121118/http://www.chicagotribune.com/bluesky/technology/ct-tech-titans-against-terminators-20151214-story.html|archivedate=7 June 2016|df=dmy-all}}</ref> 人工智能领域内专家们的观点是混杂的,担忧和不担忧超人类AI的意见都占有很大的份额。其他技术行业的领导者相信AI在目前的形式下是有益的,并将继续帮助人类。甲骨文首席执行官马克·赫德表示,AI“实际上将创造更多的就业机会,而不是减少就业机会” ,因为管理AI系统需要人力<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://searcherp.techtarget.com/news/252460208/Oracle-CEO-Mark-Hurd-sees-no-reason-to-fear-ERP-AI|title=Oracle CEO Mark Hurd sees no reason to fear ERP AI|website=SearchERP|language=en|access-date=2019-05-06}}</ref> 。Facebook 首席执行官马克·扎克伯格相信AI将“解锁大量正面的东西” ,比如治愈疾病和提高自动驾驶汽车的安全性<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-zuckerberg-shares-thoughts-elon-musks-ai-2018-5|title=Mark Zuckerberg responds to Elon Musk's paranoia about AI: 'AI is going to... help keep our communities safe.'|last=|first=|date=25 May 2018|website=Business Insider|access-date=2019-05-06}}</ref>。2015年1月,马斯克向未来生命研究所捐赠了1000万美元,用于研究AI决策。该研究所的目标是“用智能管理”日益增长的技术力量。马斯克还为 DeepMind 和 Vicarious 等开发AI的公司提供资金,以“跟进AI的发展”<ref>{{cite web|title = The mysterious artificial intelligence company Elon Musk invested in is developing game-changing smart computers|url = http://www.techinsider.io/mysterious-artificial-intelligence-company-elon-musk-investment-2015-10|website = Tech Insider|accessdate = 30 October 2015|url-status=live|archiveurl = https://web.archive.org/web/20151030165333/http://www.techinsider.io/mysterious-artificial-intelligence-company-elon-musk-investment-2015-10|archivedate = 30 October 2015|df = dmy-all}}</ref>因为认为这个领域“可能会产生危险的后果”<ref>{{cite web|title = Musk-Backed Group Probes Risks Behind Artificial Intelligence|url = https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-01/musk-backed-group-probes-risks-behind-artificial-intelligence|website = Bloomberg.com|accessdate = 30 October 2015|first = Jack|last = Clark|url-status=live|archiveurl = https://web.archive.org/web/20151030202356/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-01/musk-backed-group-probes-risks-behind-artificial-intelligence|archivedate = 30 October 2015|df = dmy-all}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|title = Elon Musk Is Donating $10M Of His Own Money To Artificial Intelligence Research|url = http://www.fastcompany.com/3041007/fast-feed/elon-musk-is-donating-10m-of-his-own-money-to-artificial-intelligence-research|website = Fast Company|accessdate = 30 October 2015|url-status=live|archiveurl = https://web.archive.org/web/20151030202356/http://www.fastcompany.com/3041007/fast-feed/elon-musk-is-donating-10m-of-his-own-money-to-artificial-intelligence-research|archivedate = 30 October 2015|df = dmy-all|date = 2015-01-15}}</ref>。 |
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− | ====人性贬值 Devaluation of humanity ==== | + | ====人性贬值 ==== |
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| [[Joseph Weizenbaum]] wrote that AI applications cannot, by definition, successfully simulate genuine human empathy and that the use of AI technology in fields such as [[customer service]] or [[psychotherapy]]<ref>In the early 1970s, [[Kenneth Colby]] presented a version of Weizenbaum's [[ELIZA]] known as DOCTOR which he promoted as a serious therapeutic tool. {{Harv|Crevier|1993|pp=132–144}}</ref> was deeply misguided. Weizenbaum was also bothered that AI researchers (and some philosophers) were willing to view the human mind as nothing more than a computer program (a position now known as [[computationalism]]). To Weizenbaum these points suggest that AI research devalues human life.<ref name="Weizenbaum's critique"/> | | [[Joseph Weizenbaum]] wrote that AI applications cannot, by definition, successfully simulate genuine human empathy and that the use of AI technology in fields such as [[customer service]] or [[psychotherapy]]<ref>In the early 1970s, [[Kenneth Colby]] presented a version of Weizenbaum's [[ELIZA]] known as DOCTOR which he promoted as a serious therapeutic tool. {{Harv|Crevier|1993|pp=132–144}}</ref> was deeply misguided. Weizenbaum was also bothered that AI researchers (and some philosophers) were willing to view the human mind as nothing more than a computer program (a position now known as [[computationalism]]). To Weizenbaum these points suggest that AI research devalues human life.<ref name="Weizenbaum's critique"/> |
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| Joseph Weizenbaum wrote that AI applications cannot, by definition, successfully simulate genuine human empathy and that the use of AI technology in fields such as customer service or psychotherapy was deeply misguided. Weizenbaum was also bothered that AI researchers (and some philosophers) were willing to view the human mind as nothing more than a computer program (a position now known as computationalism). To Weizenbaum these points suggest that AI research devalues human life. | | Joseph Weizenbaum wrote that AI applications cannot, by definition, successfully simulate genuine human empathy and that the use of AI technology in fields such as customer service or psychotherapy was deeply misguided. Weizenbaum was also bothered that AI researchers (and some philosophers) were willing to view the human mind as nothing more than a computer program (a position now known as computationalism). To Weizenbaum these points suggest that AI research devalues human life. |
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− | 约瑟夫·维森鲍姆写道,根据定义,AI应用程序不能模拟人类的同理心,并且在诸如客户服务或心理治疗等领域使用AI技术是严重错误。维森鲍姆还对AI研究人员(以及一些哲学家)将人类思维视为一个计算机程序(现在称为计算主义)而感到困扰。对维森鲍姆来说,这些观点表明AI研究贬低了人类的生命价值。
| + | 约瑟夫·维森鲍姆写道,根据定义,AI应用程序不能模拟人类的同理心,并且在诸如客户服务或心理治疗等领域使用AI技术是严重错误<ref>In the early 1970s, [[Kenneth Colby]] presented a version of Weizenbaum's [[ELIZA]] known as DOCTOR which he promoted as a serious therapeutic tool. {{Harv|Crevier|1993|pp=132–144}}</ref> 。维森鲍姆还对AI研究人员(以及一些哲学家)将人类思维视为一个计算机程序(现在称为计算主义)而感到困扰。对维森鲍姆来说,这些观点表明AI研究贬低了人类的生命价值。<ref name="Weizenbaum's critique"/> |
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− | ====社会正义 Social justice==== | + | ====社会正义==== |
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| {{further|Algorithmic bias}} | | {{further|Algorithmic bias}} |
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| One concern is that AI programs may be programmed to be biased against certain groups, such as women and minorities, because most of the developers are wealthy Caucasian men.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/artificial-intelligence-big-data-bias-hiring-loans-key-challenge-11097374|title=Commentary: Bad news. Artificial intelligence is biased|website=CNA}}</ref> Support for artificial intelligence is higher among men (with 47% approving) than women (35% approving). | | One concern is that AI programs may be programmed to be biased against certain groups, such as women and minorities, because most of the developers are wealthy Caucasian men.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/artificial-intelligence-big-data-bias-hiring-loans-key-challenge-11097374|title=Commentary: Bad news. Artificial intelligence is biased|website=CNA}}</ref> Support for artificial intelligence is higher among men (with 47% approving) than women (35% approving). |
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| One concern is that AI programs may be programmed to be biased against certain groups, such as women and minorities, because most of the developers are wealthy Caucasian men. Support for artificial intelligence is higher among men (with 47% approving) than women (35% approving). | | One concern is that AI programs may be programmed to be biased against certain groups, such as women and minorities, because most of the developers are wealthy Caucasian men. Support for artificial intelligence is higher among men (with 47% approving) than women (35% approving). |
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− | 人们担心的一个问题是,AI程序可能会对某些群体存在偏见,比如女性和少数民族,因为大多数开发者都是富有的白人男性。男性对AI的支持率(47%)高于女性(35%)。
| + | 人们担心的一个问题是,AI程序可能会对某些群体存在偏见,比如女性和少数族裔,因为大多数开发者都是富有的白人男性<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/artificial-intelligence-big-data-bias-hiring-loans-key-challenge-11097374|title=Commentary: Bad news. Artificial intelligence is biased|website=CNA}}</ref>。男性对AI的支持率(47%)高于女性(35%)。 |
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| Algorithms have a host of applications in today's legal system already, assisting officials ranging from judges to parole officers and public defenders in gauging the predicted likelihood of recidivism of defendants. COMPAS (an acronym for Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions) counts among the most widely utilized commercially available solutions. It has been suggested that COMPAS assigns an exceptionally elevated risk of recidivism to black defendants while, conversely, ascribing low risk estimate to white defendants significantly more often than statistically expected. | | Algorithms have a host of applications in today's legal system already, assisting officials ranging from judges to parole officers and public defenders in gauging the predicted likelihood of recidivism of defendants. COMPAS (an acronym for Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions) counts among the most widely utilized commercially available solutions. It has been suggested that COMPAS assigns an exceptionally elevated risk of recidivism to black defendants while, conversely, ascribing low risk estimate to white defendants significantly more often than statistically expected. |
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− | 算法在今天的法律体系中已经有了大量的应用,它能协助无论是法官还是假释官员,抑或是评估被告再次犯罪的可能性的公设辩护人。COMPAS(Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions,替代性制裁的惩罚性罪犯管理分析的首字母缩写)是商业上使用最广泛的解决办法之一。有人指出,COMPAS 对黑人被告累犯风险的评估数值非常高,而相反的,白人被告低风险估计的频率明显高于统计学期望。
| + | 算法在今天的法律体系中已经有了大量的应用,它能协助法官以及假释官员,以及哪些负责评估被告再次犯罪可能性的公设辩护人<ref name="propublica.org">{{Cite web|url=https://www.propublica.org/article/how-we-analyzed-the-compas-recidivism-algorithm|title=How We Analyzed the COMPAS Recidivism Algorithm|last=Jeff Larson|first=Julia Angwin|date=2016-05-23|website=ProPublica|language=en|access-date=2019-07-23}}</ref>。COMPAS(Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions,即“替代性制裁的惩罚性罪犯管理分析”的首字母缩写)是商业上使用最广泛的解决方案之一<ref name="propublica.org"/>。有人指出,COMPAS 对黑人被告累犯风险的评估数值非常高,而相反的,白人被告低风险估计的频率明显高于统计学期望。<ref name="propublica.org"/> |
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− | ==== 劳动力需求降低 Decrease in demand for human labor ====
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| + | ==== 劳动力需求降低==== |
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| {{Further|Technological unemployment#21st century}} | | {{Further|Technological unemployment#21st century}} |
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| The relationship between automation and employment is complicated. While automation eliminates old jobs, it also creates new jobs through micro-economic and macro-economic effects.<ref>E McGaughey, 'Will Robots Automate Your Job Away? Full Employment, Basic Income, and Economic Democracy' (2018) [https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3044448 SSRN, part 2(3)]</ref> Unlike previous waves of automation, many middle-class jobs may be eliminated by artificial intelligence; ''[[The Economist]]'' states that "the worry that AI could do to white-collar jobs what steam power did to blue-collar ones during the Industrial Revolution" is "worth taking seriously".<ref>{{cite news|title=Automation and anxiety|url=https://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21700758-will-smarter-machines-cause-mass-unemployment-automation-and-anxiety|accessdate=13 January 2018|work=The Economist|date=9 May 2015}}</ref> Subjective estimates of the risk vary widely; for example, Michael Osborne and [[Carl Benedikt Frey]] estimate 47% of U.S. jobs are at "high risk" of potential automation, while an OECD report classifies only 9% of U.S.<!-- see report p. 33 table 4; 9% is both the OECD average and the US average --> jobs as "high risk".<ref>{{cite news|last1=Lohr|first1=Steve|title=Robots Will Take Jobs, but Not as Fast as Some Fear, New Report Says|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/12/technology/robots-will-take-jobs-but-not-as-fast-as-some-fear-new-report-says.html|accessdate=13 January 2018|work=The New York Times|date=2017}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|date=1 January 2017|title=The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?|journal=Technological Forecasting and Social Change|volume=114|pages=254–280|doi=10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.019|issn=0040-1625|last1=Frey|first1=Carl Benedikt|last2=Osborne|first2=Michael A|citeseerx=10.1.1.395.416}}</ref><ref>Arntz, Melanie, Terry Gregory, and Ulrich Zierahn. "The risk of automation for jobs in OECD countries: A comparative analysis." OECD Social, Employment, and Migration Working Papers 189 (2016). p. 33.</ref> Jobs at extreme risk range from paralegals to fast food cooks, while job demand is likely to increase for care-related professions ranging from personal healthcare to the clergy.<ref>{{cite news|last1=Mahdawi|first1=Arwa|title=What jobs will still be around in 20 years? Read this to prepare your future|url=https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jun/26/jobs-future-automation-robots-skills-creative-health|accessdate=13 January 2018|work=The Guardian|date=26 June 2017}}</ref> Author [[Martin Ford (author)|Martin Ford]] and others go further and argue that many jobs are routine, repetitive and (to an AI) predictable; Ford warns that these jobs may be automated in the next couple of decades, and that many of the new jobs may not be "accessible to people with average capability", even with retraining. Economists point out that in the past technology has tended to increase rather than reduce total employment, but acknowledge that "we're in uncharted territory" with AI.<ref name="guardian jobs debate">{{cite news|last1=Ford|first1=Martin|last2=Colvin|first2=Geoff|title=Will robots create more jobs than they destroy?|url=https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/sep/06/will-robots-create-destroy-jobs|accessdate=13 January 2018|work=The Guardian|date=6 September 2015}}</ref> | | The relationship between automation and employment is complicated. While automation eliminates old jobs, it also creates new jobs through micro-economic and macro-economic effects.<ref>E McGaughey, 'Will Robots Automate Your Job Away? Full Employment, Basic Income, and Economic Democracy' (2018) [https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3044448 SSRN, part 2(3)]</ref> Unlike previous waves of automation, many middle-class jobs may be eliminated by artificial intelligence; ''[[The Economist]]'' states that "the worry that AI could do to white-collar jobs what steam power did to blue-collar ones during the Industrial Revolution" is "worth taking seriously".<ref>{{cite news|title=Automation and anxiety|url=https://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21700758-will-smarter-machines-cause-mass-unemployment-automation-and-anxiety|accessdate=13 January 2018|work=The Economist|date=9 May 2015}}</ref> Subjective estimates of the risk vary widely; for example, Michael Osborne and [[Carl Benedikt Frey]] estimate 47% of U.S. jobs are at "high risk" of potential automation, while an OECD report classifies only 9% of U.S.<!-- see report p. 33 table 4; 9% is both the OECD average and the US average --> jobs as "high risk".<ref>{{cite news|last1=Lohr|first1=Steve|title=Robots Will Take Jobs, but Not as Fast as Some Fear, New Report Says|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/12/technology/robots-will-take-jobs-but-not-as-fast-as-some-fear-new-report-says.html|accessdate=13 January 2018|work=The New York Times|date=2017}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|date=1 January 2017|title=The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?|journal=Technological Forecasting and Social Change|volume=114|pages=254–280|doi=10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.019|issn=0040-1625|last1=Frey|first1=Carl Benedikt|last2=Osborne|first2=Michael A|citeseerx=10.1.1.395.416}}</ref><ref>Arntz, Melanie, Terry Gregory, and Ulrich Zierahn. "The risk of automation for jobs in OECD countries: A comparative analysis." OECD Social, Employment, and Migration Working Papers 189 (2016). p. 33.</ref> Jobs at extreme risk range from paralegals to fast food cooks, while job demand is likely to increase for care-related professions ranging from personal healthcare to the clergy.<ref>{{cite news|last1=Mahdawi|first1=Arwa|title=What jobs will still be around in 20 years? Read this to prepare your future|url=https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jun/26/jobs-future-automation-robots-skills-creative-health|accessdate=13 January 2018|work=The Guardian|date=26 June 2017}}</ref> Author [[Martin Ford (author)|Martin Ford]] and others go further and argue that many jobs are routine, repetitive and (to an AI) predictable; Ford warns that these jobs may be automated in the next couple of decades, and that many of the new jobs may not be "accessible to people with average capability", even with retraining. Economists point out that in the past technology has tended to increase rather than reduce total employment, but acknowledge that "we're in uncharted territory" with AI.<ref name="guardian jobs debate">{{cite news|last1=Ford|first1=Martin|last2=Colvin|first2=Geoff|title=Will robots create more jobs than they destroy?|url=https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/sep/06/will-robots-create-destroy-jobs|accessdate=13 January 2018|work=The Guardian|date=6 September 2015}}</ref> |
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| The relationship between automation and employment is complicated. While automation eliminates old jobs, it also creates new jobs through micro-economic and macro-economic effects. Unlike previous waves of automation, many middle-class jobs may be eliminated by artificial intelligence; The Economist states that "the worry that AI could do to white-collar jobs what steam power did to blue-collar ones during the Industrial Revolution" is "worth taking seriously". Subjective estimates of the risk vary widely; for example, Michael Osborne and Carl Benedikt Frey estimate 47% of U.S. jobs are at "high risk" of potential automation, while an OECD report classifies only 9% of U.S.<!-- see report p. 33 table 4; 9% is both the OECD average and the US average --> jobs as "high risk". Jobs at extreme risk range from paralegals to fast food cooks, while job demand is likely to increase for care-related professions ranging from personal healthcare to the clergy. Author Martin Ford and others go further and argue that many jobs are routine, repetitive and (to an AI) predictable; Ford warns that these jobs may be automated in the next couple of decades, and that many of the new jobs may not be "accessible to people with average capability", even with retraining. Economists point out that in the past technology has tended to increase rather than reduce total employment, but acknowledge that "we're in uncharted territory" with AI. | | The relationship between automation and employment is complicated. While automation eliminates old jobs, it also creates new jobs through micro-economic and macro-economic effects. Unlike previous waves of automation, many middle-class jobs may be eliminated by artificial intelligence; The Economist states that "the worry that AI could do to white-collar jobs what steam power did to blue-collar ones during the Industrial Revolution" is "worth taking seriously". Subjective estimates of the risk vary widely; for example, Michael Osborne and Carl Benedikt Frey estimate 47% of U.S. jobs are at "high risk" of potential automation, while an OECD report classifies only 9% of U.S.<!-- see report p. 33 table 4; 9% is both the OECD average and the US average --> jobs as "high risk". Jobs at extreme risk range from paralegals to fast food cooks, while job demand is likely to increase for care-related professions ranging from personal healthcare to the clergy. Author Martin Ford and others go further and argue that many jobs are routine, repetitive and (to an AI) predictable; Ford warns that these jobs may be automated in the next couple of decades, and that many of the new jobs may not be "accessible to people with average capability", even with retraining. Economists point out that in the past technology has tended to increase rather than reduce total employment, but acknowledge that "we're in uncharted territory" with AI. |
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− | 自动化与就业的关系是复杂的。自动化在减少过时工作的同时,也通过微观经济和宏观经济效应创造了新的就业机会。与以往的自动化浪潮不同,许多中产阶级的工作可能会被AI淘汰; 《经济学家》指出,“AI对白领工作的影响,就像工业革命时期蒸汽动力对蓝领工作的影响一样,需要我们正视”。对风险的主观估计差别很大,例如,迈克尔 · 奥斯本和卡尔 · 贝内迪克特 · 弗雷估计,美国47% 的工作有较高风险被自动化取代 ,而经合组织的报告认为美国仅有9% 的工作处于“高风险”状态。从律师助理到快餐厨师等职业都面临着极大的风险,而个人医疗保健、神职人员等护理相关职业的就业需求可能会增加。作家马丁•福特和其他人进一步指出,许多工作都是常规、重复的,对AI而言是可以预测的。福特警告道,这些工作可能在未来几十年内实现自动化,而且即便对失业人员进行再培训,许多能力一般的人也不能获得新工作。经济学家指出,在过去技术往往会增加而不是减少总就业人数,但他们承认,AI“正处于未知领域”。
| + | 自动化与就业的关系是复杂的。自动化在减少过时工作的同时,也通过微观经济和宏观经济效应创造了新的就业机会<ref>E McGaughey, 'Will Robots Automate Your Job Away? Full Employment, Basic Income, and Economic Democracy' (2018) [https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3044448 SSRN, part 2(3)]</ref>。与以往的自动化浪潮不同,许多中产阶级的工作可能会被AI淘汰。《经济学人》杂志指出,“AI对白领工作的影响,就像工业革命时期蒸汽动力对蓝领工作的影响一样,需要我们正视”<ref>{{cite news|title=Automation and anxiety|url=https://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21700758-will-smarter-machines-cause-mass-unemployment-automation-and-anxiety|accessdate=13 January 2018|work=The Economist|date=9 May 2015}}</ref>。对风险的主观估计差别很大,例如,迈克尔·奥斯本和卡尔·贝内迪克特·弗雷估计,美国47% 的工作有较高风险被自动化取代 ,而经合组织的报告认为美国仅有9% 的工作处于“高风险”状态<ref>{{cite news|last1=Lohr|first1=Steve|title=Robots Will Take Jobs, but Not as Fast as Some Fear, New Report Says|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/12/technology/robots-will-take-jobs-but-not-as-fast-as-some-fear-new-report-says.html|accessdate=13 January 2018|work=The New York Times|date=2017}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|date=1 January 2017|title=The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?|journal=Technological Forecasting and Social Change|volume=114|pages=254–280|doi=10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.019|issn=0040-1625|last1=Frey|first1=Carl Benedikt|last2=Osborne|first2=Michael A|citeseerx=10.1.1.395.416}}</ref><ref>Arntz, Melanie, Terry Gregory, and Ulrich Zierahn. "The risk of automation for jobs in OECD countries: A comparative analysis." OECD Social, Employment, and Migration Working Papers 189 (2016). p. 33.</ref>。从律师助理到快餐厨师等职业都面临着极大的风险,而个人医疗保健、神职人员等护理相关职业的就业需求可能会增加<ref>{{cite news|last1=Mahdawi|first1=Arwa|title=What jobs will still be around in 20 years? Read this to prepare your future|url=https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jun/26/jobs-future-automation-robots-skills-creative-health|accessdate=13 January 2018|work=The Guardian|date=26 June 2017}}</ref>。作家马丁•福特和其他人进一步指出,许多工作都是常规、重复的,对AI而言是可以预测的。福特警告道,这些工作可能在未来几十年内实现自动化,而且即便对失业人员进行再培训,许多能力一般的人也不能获得新工作。经济学家指出,在过去技术往往会增加而不是减少总就业人数,但他们承认,AI“正处于未知领域”<ref name="guardian jobs debate">{{cite news|last1=Ford|first1=Martin|last2=Colvin|first2=Geoff|title=Will robots create more jobs than they destroy?|url=https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/sep/06/will-robots-create-destroy-jobs|accessdate=13 January 2018|work=The Guardian|date=6 September 2015}}</ref>。 |
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− | ====自动化武器 Autonomous weapons ==== | |
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| + | ====自动化武器==== |
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| {{See also|Lethal autonomous weapon}} | | {{See also|Lethal autonomous weapon}} |
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| Currently, 50+ countries are researching battlefield robots, including the United States, China, Russia, and the United Kingdom. Many people concerned about risk from superintelligent AI also want to limit the use of artificial soldiers and drones.<ref>{{cite web|title = Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, and Bill Gates Warn About Artificial Intelligence|url = http://observer.com/2015/08/stephen-hawking-elon-musk-and-bill-gates-warn-about-artificial-intelligence/|website = Observer|accessdate = 30 October 2015|url-status=live|archiveurl = https://web.archive.org/web/20151030053323/http://observer.com/2015/08/stephen-hawking-elon-musk-and-bill-gates-warn-about-artificial-intelligence/|archivedate = 30 October 2015|df = dmy-all|date = 2015-08-19}}</ref> | | Currently, 50+ countries are researching battlefield robots, including the United States, China, Russia, and the United Kingdom. Many people concerned about risk from superintelligent AI also want to limit the use of artificial soldiers and drones.<ref>{{cite web|title = Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, and Bill Gates Warn About Artificial Intelligence|url = http://observer.com/2015/08/stephen-hawking-elon-musk-and-bill-gates-warn-about-artificial-intelligence/|website = Observer|accessdate = 30 October 2015|url-status=live|archiveurl = https://web.archive.org/web/20151030053323/http://observer.com/2015/08/stephen-hawking-elon-musk-and-bill-gates-warn-about-artificial-intelligence/|archivedate = 30 October 2015|df = dmy-all|date = 2015-08-19}}</ref> |
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| Currently, 50+ countries are researching battlefield robots, including the United States, China, Russia, and the United Kingdom. Many people concerned about risk from superintelligent AI also want to limit the use of artificial soldiers and drones. | | Currently, 50+ countries are researching battlefield robots, including the United States, China, Russia, and the United Kingdom. Many people concerned about risk from superintelligent AI also want to limit the use of artificial soldiers and drones. |
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− | 目前,包括美国、中国、俄罗斯和英国在内的50多个国家正在研究战场机器人。许多人担心来自超级智能AI的风险,也希望限制人造士兵和无人机的使用。
| + | 目前,包括美国、中国、俄罗斯和英国在内的50多个国家正在研究战场机器人。许多人在担心来自超级智能AI的风险的同时,也希望限制人造士兵和无人机的使用。<ref>{{cite web|title = Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, and Bill Gates Warn About Artificial Intelligence|url = http://observer.com/2015/08/stephen-hawking-elon-musk-and-bill-gates-warn-about-artificial-intelligence/|website = Observer|accessdate = 30 October 2015|url-status=live|archiveurl = https://web.archive.org/web/20151030053323/http://observer.com/2015/08/stephen-hawking-elon-musk-and-bill-gates-warn-about-artificial-intelligence/|archivedate = 30 October 2015|df = dmy-all|date = 2015-08-19}}</ref> |
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| ===道德机器 Ethical machines === | | ===道德机器 Ethical machines === |