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第34行： − + + − 这个概念和术语“奇点”是由 Vernor Vinge 在他1993年的文章《<font color="#ff8000">即将到来的技术奇点The Coming Technological Singularity</font>》中推广的，他在文中写道，这将标志着人类时代的终结，因为新的超级智能将持续自我升级，技术以一种不可思议的速度进步。他写道，如果奇点发生在2005年之前或2030年之后，他会感到惊讶。奇点的结果及其对人类的潜在利益或伤害已经引起了激烈的争论。 + − Public figures such as [[Stephen Hawking]] and [[Elon Musk]] have expressed concern that full [[artificial intelligence]] (AI) could result in human extinction.<ref>{{cite news|last1=Sparkes|first1=Matthew|title=Top scientists call for caution over artificial intelligence|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/11342200/Top-scientists-call-for-caution-over-artificial-intelligence.html|accessdate=24 April 2015|work=[[The Daily Telegraph|The Telegraph (UK)]]|date=13 January 2015}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-30290540|title=Hawking: AI could end human race|date=2 December 2014|publisher=BBC|accessdate=11 November 2017}}</ref> The consequences of the singularity and its potential benefit or harm to the human race have been intensely debated.+ 第51行：
第52行： − − Although technological progress has been accelerating, it has been limited by the basic intelligence of the human brain, which has not, according to Paul R. Ehrlich, changed significantly for millennia. However, with the increasing power of computers and other technologies, it might eventually be possible to build a machine that is significantly more intelligent than humans. − − 虽然技术进步的速度一直在提升，但是它受到人类大脑基本智力的限制，据Paul R. Ehrlich说，几千年来人类大脑并没有发生显著的变化。然而，随着计算机和其他技术能力的增强，最终人们可能会造出一台比人类智慧得多的机器。
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The concept and the term "singularity" were popularized by [[Vernor Vinge]] in his 1993 essay ''The Coming Technological Singularity'', in which he wrote that it would signal the end of the human era, as the new superintelligence would continue to upgrade itself and would advance technologically at an incomprehensible rate. He wrote that he would be surprised if it occurred before 2005 or after 2030.<ref name="vinge1993" />
The concept and the term "singularity" were popularized by [[Vernor Vinge]] in his 1993 essay ''The Coming Technological Singularity'', in which he wrote that it would signal the end of the human era, as the new superintelligence would continue to upgrade itself and would advance technologically at an incomprehensible rate. He wrote that he would be surprised if it occurred before 2005 or after 2030.<ref name="vinge1993" />
The concept and the term "singularity" were popularized by Vernor Vinge in his 1993 essay The Coming Technological Singularity, in which he wrote that it would signal the end of the human era, as the new superintelligence would continue to upgrade itself and would advance technologically at an incomprehensible rate. He wrote that he would be surprised if it occurred before 2005 or after 2030. The consequences of the singularity and its potential benefit or harm to the human race have been intensely debated.
The concept and the term "singularity" were popularized by Vernor Vinge in his 1993 essay The Coming Technological Singularity, in which he wrote that it would signal the end of the human era, as the new superintelligence would continue to upgrade itself and would advance technologically at an incomprehensible rate. He wrote that he would be surprised if it occurred before 2005 or after 2030.
这个概念和术语“奇点”是由 Vernor Vinge 在他1993年的文章《<font color="#ff8000">即将到来的技术奇点The Coming Technological Singularity</font>》中推广的，他在文中写道，这将标志着人类时代的终结，因为新的超级智能将持续自我升级，技术以一种不可思议的速度进步。他写道，如果奇点发生在2005年之前或2030年之后，他会感到惊讶。
Public figures such as [[Stephen Hawking]] and [[Elon Musk]] have expressed concern that full [[artificial intelligence]] (AI) could result in human extinction.<ref>{{cite news|last1=Sparkes|first1=Matthew|title=Top scientists call for caution over artificial intelligence|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/11342200/Top-scientists-call-for-caution-over-artificial-intelligence.html|accessdate=24 April 2015|work=[[The Daily Telegraph|The Telegraph (UK)]]|date=13 January 2015}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-30290540|title=Hawking: AI could end human race|date=2 December 2014|publisher=BBC|accessdate=11 November 2017}}</ref> The consequences of the singularity and its potential benefit or harm to the human race have been intensely debated.
（）奇点的结果及其对人类的潜在利益或伤害已经引起了激烈的争论。
Four polls of AI researchers, conducted in 2012 and 2013 by Nick Bostrom and Vincent C. Müller, suggested a median probability estimate of 50% that artificial general intelligence (AGI) would be developed by 2040–2050.
Four polls of AI researchers, conducted in 2012 and 2013 by Nick Bostrom and Vincent C. Müller, suggested a median probability estimate of 50% that artificial general intelligence (AGI) would be developed by 2040–2050.
==Background 背景==
==Background 背景==