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第83行： − − Whether or not an intelligence explosion occurs depends on three factors. The first accelerating factor is the new intelligence enhancements made possible by each previous improvement. Contrariwise, as the intelligences become more advanced, further advances will become more and more complicated, possibly overcoming the advantage of increased intelligence. Each improvement should beget at least one more improvement, on average, for movement towards singularity to continue. Finally, the laws of physics will eventually prevent any further improvements. − − 智力爆发是否发生取决于三个因素。第一个加速其到来的因素是新的智能增强，它使以前的每一次改进成为可能。相反，随着智能变得越来越先进，进一步的发展将变得越来越复杂，可能会抵消智能增长的优势。平均而言，每一项改进都应该至少再带来一项改进，以便继续朝着奇点的方向前进。最后，物理定律的限制会终止任何改进。 第94行：
第90行： − There are two logically independent, but mutually reinforcing, causes of intelligence improvements: increases in the speed of computation, and improvements to the algorithms used. The former is predicted by Moore's Law and the forecasted improvements in hardware, and is comparatively similar to previous technological advances. But there are some AI researchers who believe software is more important than hardware. − − 智能进步有两个逻辑上相互独立但又相辅相成的原因: 计算速度的提高和所用算法的改进。前者是由摩尔定律和硬件改进所预测的，并且与先前的技术进步相似。但也有一些人工智能研究人员认为软件的改进比硬件更重要。 第102行：
第95行： − A 2017 email survey of authors with publications at the 2015 NeurIPS and ICML machine learning conferences asked about the chance of an intelligence explosion. Of the respondents, 12% said it was "quite likely", 17% said it was "likely", 21% said it was "about even", 24% said it was "unlikely" and 26% said it was "quite unlikely". − − 2017年的一份电子邮件调查显示，在2015年的 NeurIPS 和 ICML 机器学习会议上发表文章的作者询问了智能爆炸的可能性。在受访者中，12% 的人认为“很有可能” ，17% 的人认为“有可能” ，21% 的人认为“可能性中等” ，24% 的人认为“不太可能” ，26% 的人认为“很不可能”。 第111行：
第101行： − − Both for human and artificial intelligence, hardware improvements increase the rate of future hardware improvements. Simply put, Moore's Law suggests that if the first doubling of speed took 18 months, the second would take 18 subjective months; or 9 external months, whereafter, four months, two months, and so on towards a speed singularity. An upper limit on speed may eventually be reached, although it is unclear how high this would be. Jeff Hawkins has stated that a self-improving computer system would inevitably run into upper limits on computing power: "in the end there are limits to how big and fast computers can run. We would end up in the same place; we'd just get there a bit faster. There would be no singularity." − − 无论对于人类还是人工智能，硬件改进都会提高未来硬件改进的速度。简单地说，摩尔定律表明，如果第一次速度翻倍需要18个月，第二次则需要18个主观月或9个外部月，之后，4个月、2个月……依此类推，走向速度奇点。最终可能会达到速度的上限，尽管现在还不清楚这会有多高。Jeff Hawkins曾表示，一个自我完善的计算机系统不可避免地会遇到计算能力的上限：“最终，计算机的大小和运行速度都是有限的。我们最终会处在同一个地方，只是会更快地到达那里。不会有奇点。” − − − − − It is difficult to directly compare silicon-based hardware with neurons. But notes that computer speech recognition is approaching human capabilities, and that this capability seems to require 0.01% of the volume of the brain. This analogy suggests that modern computer hardware is within a few orders of magnitude of being as powerful as the human brain. − − 很难直接将硅构成的硬件与神经元进行比较。但是注意，计算机语音识别技术正在接近人的能力，这种能力似乎需要0.01% 的大脑容量。这个类比表明，现代计算机硬件达到与人脑一样强大只有几个数量级的距离。 − − − − − Ray Kurzweil writes that, due to [[paradigm shifts, a trend of exponential growth extends Moore's law from integrated circuits to earlier transistors, vacuum tubes, relays, and electromechanical computers. He predicts that the exponential growth will continue, and that in a few decades the computing power of all computers will exceed that of ("unenhanced") human brains, with superhuman artificial intelligence appearing around the same time.]] − − 雷 · 库兹韦尔Ray Kurzweil写道，由于[[范式的转变，指数增长的趋势将摩尔定律从集成电路扩展到早期的晶体管、真空管、继电器和机电计算机。他预测，这种指数增长将继续下去，在几十年内，所有计算机的计算能力将超过（“未增强的”）人脑，超人人工智能将同时出现]] − − − − Kurzweil's graph). The 7 most recent data points are all NVIDIA GPUs.]] − − Kurzweil's graph).最近的7个数据点都是 NVIDIA GPU。]
→Other manifestations其他表现形式
==Other manifestations其他表现形式==
==Other manifestations其他表现形式==
===Emergence of superintelligence超级智能的出现===
===Emergence of superintelligence超级智能的出现===
{{进一步{超级智能}}
{{进一步{超级智能}}
A superintelligence, hyperintelligence, or superhuman intelligence is a hypothetical [[intelligent agent|agent]] that possesses intelligence far surpassing that of the brightest and most gifted human minds. "Superintelligence" may also refer to the form or degree of intelligence possessed by such an agent. [[John von Neumann]], [[Vernor Vinge]] and [[Ray Kurzweil]] define the concept in terms of the technological creation of super intelligence. They argue that it is difficult or impossible for present-day humans to predict what human beings' lives would be like in a post-singularity world.<ref name="vinge1993"/><ref name="singularity"/>
A superintelligence, hyperintelligence, or superhuman intelligence is a hypothetical [[intelligent agent|agent]] that possesses intelligence far surpassing that of the brightest and most gifted human minds. "Superintelligence" may also refer to the form or degree of intelligence possessed by such an agent. [[John von Neumann]], [[Vernor Vinge]] and [[Ray Kurzweil]] define the concept in terms of the technological creation of super intelligence. They argue that it is difficult or impossible for present-day humans to predict what human beings' lives would be like in a post-singularity world.<ref name="vinge1993"/><ref name="singularity"/>
超级智能、超智能或超人智能是一种假设的[[智能体|智能体]]，其拥有的智能远远超过最聪明和最有天赋的人类头脑。“超级智能”也可以指这种主体所拥有的智能的形式或程度。[[John von Neumann]]，[[Vernor Vinge]]和[[Ray Kurzweil]]定义了超级智能的技术创造这一概念。他们认为，现在的人类很难或不可能预测人类在后奇点世界的生活会是什么样子。<ref name="vinge1993"/><ref name="singularity"/>
超级智能、超智能或超人智能是一种假设的[[智能体|智能体]]，其拥有的智能远远超过最聪明和最有天赋的人类头脑。“超级智能”也可以指这种主体所拥有的智能的形式或程度。[[John von Neumann]]，[[Vernor Vinge]]和[[Ray Kurzweil]]定义了超级智能的技术创造这一概念。他们认为，现在的人类很难或不可能预测人类在后奇点世界的生活会是什么样子。<ref name="vinge1993"/><ref name="singularity"/>
Technology forecasters and researchers disagree about if or when human intelligence is likely to be surpassed. Some argue that advances in [[artificial intelligence]] (AI) will probably result in general reasoning systems that lack human cognitive limitations. Others believe that humans will evolve or directly modify their biology so as to achieve radically greater intelligence. A number of [[futures studies]] scenarios combine elements from both of these possibilities, suggesting that humans are likely to [[brain–computer interface|interface with computers]], or [[mind uploading|upload their minds to computers]], in a way that enables substantial intelligence amplification.
Technology forecasters and researchers disagree about if or when human intelligence is likely to be surpassed. Some argue that advances in [[artificial intelligence]] (AI) will probably result in general reasoning systems that lack human cognitive limitations. Others believe that humans will evolve or directly modify their biology so as to achieve radically greater intelligence. A number of [[futures studies]] scenarios combine elements from both of these possibilities, suggesting that humans are likely to [[brain–computer interface|interface with computers]], or [[mind uploading|upload their minds to computers]], in a way that enables substantial intelligence amplification.
===Non-AI singularity非人工智能奇点===
===Non-AI singularity非人工智能奇点===
Some writers use "the singularity" in a broader way to refer to any radical changes in our society brought about by new technologies such as [[molecular nanotechnology]],<ref name="hplusmagazine"/><ref name="yudkowsky.net"/><ref name="agi-conf"/> although Vinge and other writers specifically state that without superintelligence, such changes would not qualify as a true singularity.<ref name="vinge1993" />
Some writers use "the singularity" in a broader way to refer to any radical changes in our society brought about by new technologies such as [[molecular nanotechnology]],<ref name="hplusmagazine"/><ref name="yudkowsky.net"/><ref name="agi-conf"/> although Vinge and other writers specifically state that without superintelligence, such changes would not qualify as a true singularity.<ref name="vinge1993" />
一些<font color = "32cd32">作家writers</font>更宽泛地使用“奇点”的概念，用来指代任何我们社会中由新技术带来的剧烈变化，如[[分子纳米技术]]，<ref name="hplusmagazine"/><ref name="yudkowsky.net"/><ref name="agi-conf"/>尽管Vinge和其他<font color = "32cd32">作家</font>明确指出，如果没有超级智能，这些改变将不是真正的奇点。<ref name="vinge1993" />
一些<font color = "32cd32">作家writers</font>更宽泛地使用“奇点”的概念，用来指代任何我们社会中由新技术带来的剧烈变化，如[[分子纳米技术]]，<ref name="hplusmagazine"/><ref name="yudkowsky.net"/><ref name="agi-conf"/>尽管Vinge和其他<font color = "32cd32">作家</font>明确指出，如果没有超级智能，这些改变将不是真正的奇点。<ref name="vinge1993" />
===Speed superintelligence速度超智能===
===Speed superintelligence速度超智能===
A speed superintelligence describes an AI that can do everything that a human can do, where the only difference is that the machine runs faster.<ref>{{cite book |doi=10.1007/978-3-662-54033-6_2 |year=2017 |publisher=Springer Berlin Heidelberg |pages=11–23 |author=Kaj Sotala and Roman Yampolskiy |title=The Technological Singularity |chapter=Risks of the Journey to the Singularity |series=The Frontiers Collection |isbn=978-3-662-54031-2 |conference=The Frontiers Collection }}</ref> For example, with a million-fold increase in the speed of information processing relative to that of humans, a subjective year would pass in 30 physical seconds.<ref name="singinst.org"/> Such a difference in information processing speed could drive the singularity.<ref>{{cite book |doi=10.1002/9781118922590.ch16 |year=2016 |publisher=John Wiley \& Sons, Inc |pages=171–224 |author=David J. Chalmers |title=Science Fiction and Philosophy |chapter=The Singularity |isbn=9781118922590 |conference=Science Fiction and Philosophy }}</ref>
A speed superintelligence describes an AI that can do everything that a human can do, where the only difference is that the machine runs faster.<ref>{{cite book |doi=10.1007/978-3-662-54033-6_2 |year=2017 |publisher=Springer Berlin Heidelberg |pages=11–23 |author=Kaj Sotala and Roman Yampolskiy |title=The Technological Singularity |chapter=Risks of the Journey to the Singularity |series=The Frontiers Collection |isbn=978-3-662-54031-2 |conference=The Frontiers Collection }}</ref> For example, with a million-fold increase in the speed of information processing relative to that of humans, a subjective year would pass in 30 physical seconds.<ref name="singinst.org"/> Such a difference in information processing speed could drive the singularity.<ref>{{cite book |doi=10.1002/9781118922590.ch16 |year=2016 |publisher=John Wiley \& Sons, Inc |pages=171–224 |author=David J. Chalmers |title=Science Fiction and Philosophy |chapter=The Singularity |isbn=9781118922590 |conference=Science Fiction and Philosophy }}</ref>
速度超级智能描述了一个人工智能，它可以做任何人类能做的事情，唯一的区别是这个机器运行得更快。例如，与人类相比，它信息处理的速度提高了一百万倍，一个主观年将在30个物理秒内过去。
速度超级智能描述了一个人工智能，它可以做任何人类能做的事情，唯一的区别是这个机器运行得更快。例如，与人类相比，它信息处理的速度提高了一百万倍，一个主观年将在30个物理秒内过去。
==Plausibility合理性==
==Plausibility合理性==