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第42行： − 2012年到2013年，Nick Bostrom 和 Vincent c. Müller 对人工智能研究人员进行了四次调查。结果显示，通用人工智能(artificial general intelligence, AGI)在2040年至2050年被成功开发出来的概率估计的中位数为50%。<ref name="newyorker">{{cite news|last1=Khatchadourian|first1=Raffi|title=The Doomsday Invention|url=https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/11/23/doomsday-invention-artificial-intelligence-nick-bostrom|accessdate=31 January 2018|work=The New Yorker|date=16 November 2015}}</ref><ref>Müller, V. C., & Bostrom, N. (2016). "Future progress in artificial intelligence: A survey of expert opinion". In V. C. Müller (ed): ''Fundamental issues of artificial intelligence'' (pp. 555–572). Springer, Berlin. http://philpapers.org/rec/MLLFPI</ref>+ 第48行：
第48行： − 虽然技术进步一直在加速，但它一直受到人脑基本智力的限制，而根据Paul R.Ehrlich的说法，人类大脑的基本智力在几千年来并没有发生显著变化。<ref name="Paul Ehrlich June 2008">Ehrlich, Paul. [http://www.longnow.org/seminars/02008/jun/27/dominant-animal-human-evolution-and-environment/ The Dominant Animal: Human Evolution and the Environment]</ref>然而，随着计算机和其他技术的日益强大，人类最终有可能制造出一台比人类智能得多的机器<ref name="businessweek">[http://www.businessweek.com/1999/99_35/b3644021.htm Superbrains born of silicon will change everything.] {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100801074729/http://www.businessweek.com/1999/99_35/b3644021.htm |date=August 1, 2010 }}</ref>+ − 如果一种超人类智能被发明出来。无论是通过人类智能的放大还是通过人工智能，它将带来比现在的人类更强的问题解决和发明创造能力。这种人工智能被称为种子人工智能 Seed AI。因为如果人工智能的工程能力能够与它的人类创造者相匹敌或超越，那么它就有潜力自主改进自己的软件和硬件，或者设计出更强大的机器。这台能力更强的机器可以继续设计一台能力更强的机器。这种自我递归改进的迭代可以加速，在物理定律或理论计算设定的任何上限之前，可能会发生巨大的质变。据推测，经过多次迭代，这样的人工智能将远远超过人类的认知能力。+ 第58行：
第58行： − 智能爆炸是构建通用人工智能 artificial general intelligence (AGI) 的可能结果。在技术奇点实现后不久，AGI 将能够进行递归式的自我迭代，从而导致人工超级智能 artificial superintelligence (ASI) 的迅速出现，但其局限性尚不清楚。+ − +
无编辑摘要
Four polls of AI researchers, conducted in 2012 and 2013 by [[Nick Bostrom]] and [[Vincent C. Müller]], suggested a median probability estimate of 50% that [[artificial general intelligence]] (AGI) would be developed by 2040–2050.<ref name="newyorker">{{cite news|last1=Khatchadourian|first1=Raffi|title=The Doomsday Invention|url=https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/11/23/doomsday-invention-artificial-intelligence-nick-bostrom|accessdate=31 January 2018|work=The New Yorker|date=16 November 2015}}</ref><ref>Müller, V. C., & Bostrom, N. (2016). "Future progress in artificial intelligence: A survey of expert opinion". In V. C. Müller (ed): ''Fundamental issues of artificial intelligence'' (pp. 555–572). Springer, Berlin. http://philpapers.org/rec/MLLFPI</ref>
Four polls of AI researchers, conducted in 2012 and 2013 by [[Nick Bostrom]] and [[Vincent C. Müller]], suggested a median probability estimate of 50% that [[artificial general intelligence]] (AGI) would be developed by 2040–2050.<ref name="newyorker">{{cite news|last1=Khatchadourian|first1=Raffi|title=The Doomsday Invention|url=https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/11/23/doomsday-invention-artificial-intelligence-nick-bostrom|accessdate=31 January 2018|work=The New Yorker|date=16 November 2015}}</ref><ref>Müller, V. C., & Bostrom, N. (2016). "Future progress in artificial intelligence: A survey of expert opinion". In V. C. Müller (ed): ''Fundamental issues of artificial intelligence'' (pp. 555–572). Springer, Berlin. http://philpapers.org/rec/MLLFPI</ref>
2012年到2013年期间，Nick Bostrom 和 Vincent c. Müller 对人工智能研究人员进行了四次调查。结果显示，通用人工智能(artificial general intelligence, AGI)在2040年至2050年被成功开发出来的概率估计的中位数为50%。<ref name="newyorker">{{cite news|last1=Khatchadourian|first1=Raffi|title=The Doomsday Invention|url=https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/11/23/doomsday-invention-artificial-intelligence-nick-bostrom|accessdate=31 January 2018|work=The New Yorker|date=16 November 2015}}</ref><ref>Müller, V. C., & Bostrom, N. (2016). "Future progress in artificial intelligence: A survey of expert opinion". In V. C. Müller (ed): ''Fundamental issues of artificial intelligence'' (pp. 555–572). Springer, Berlin. http://philpapers.org/rec/MLLFPI</ref>
==背景==
==背景==
Although technological progress has been accelerating, it has been limited by the basic intelligence of the human brain, which has not, according to [[Paul R. Ehrlich]], changed significantly for millennia.<ref name="Paul Ehrlich June 2008">Ehrlich, Paul. [http://www.longnow.org/seminars/02008/jun/27/dominant-animal-human-evolution-and-environment/ The Dominant Animal: Human Evolution and the Environment]</ref> However, with the increasing power of computers and other technologies, it might eventually be possible to build a machine that is significantly more intelligent than humans.<ref name="businessweek">[http://www.businessweek.com/1999/99_35/b3644021.htm Superbrains born of silicon will change everything.] {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100801074729/http://www.businessweek.com/1999/99_35/b3644021.htm |date=August 1, 2010 }}</ref>
Although technological progress has been accelerating, it has been limited by the basic intelligence of the human brain, which has not, according to [[Paul R. Ehrlich]], changed significantly for millennia.<ref name="Paul Ehrlich June 2008">Ehrlich, Paul. [http://www.longnow.org/seminars/02008/jun/27/dominant-animal-human-evolution-and-environment/ The Dominant Animal: Human Evolution and the Environment]</ref> However, with the increasing power of computers and other technologies, it might eventually be possible to build a machine that is significantly more intelligent than humans.<ref name="businessweek">[http://www.businessweek.com/1999/99_35/b3644021.htm Superbrains born of silicon will change everything.] {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100801074729/http://www.businessweek.com/1999/99_35/b3644021.htm |date=August 1, 2010 }}</ref>
虽然技术进步一直在加速，但它一直受到人脑基本智力的限制，而根据 Paul R.Ehrlich 的说法，人类大脑的基本智力在几千年来并没有发生显著变化。<ref name="Paul Ehrlich June 2008">Ehrlich, Paul. [http://www.longnow.org/seminars/02008/jun/27/dominant-animal-human-evolution-and-environment/ The Dominant Animal: Human Evolution and the Environment]</ref>然而，随着计算机和其他技术的日益强大，人类最终有可能制造出一台比人类智能得多的机器<ref name="businessweek">[http://www.businessweek.com/1999/99_35/b3644021.htm Superbrains born of silicon will change everything.] {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100801074729/http://www.businessweek.com/1999/99_35/b3644021.htm |date=August 1, 2010 }}</ref>
If a superhuman intelligence were to be invented—either through the amplification of human intelligence or through artificial intelligence—it would bring to bear greater problem-solving and inventive skills than current humans are capable of. Such an AI is referred to as Seed AI because if an AI were created with engineering capabilities that matched or surpassed those of its human creators, it would have the potential to autonomously improve its own software and hardware or design an even more capable machine. This more capable machine could then go on to design a machine of yet greater capability. These iterations of recursive self-improvement could accelerate, potentially allowing enormous qualitative change before any upper limits imposed by the laws of physics or theoretical computation set in. It is speculated that over many iterations, such an AI would far surpass human cognitive abilities.
If a superhuman intelligence were to be invented—either through the amplification of human intelligence or through artificial intelligence—it would bring to bear greater problem-solving and inventive skills than current humans are capable of. Such an AI is referred to as Seed AI because if an AI were created with engineering capabilities that matched or surpassed those of its human creators, it would have the potential to autonomously improve its own software and hardware or design an even more capable machine. This more capable machine could then go on to design a machine of yet greater capability. These iterations of recursive self-improvement could accelerate, potentially allowing enormous qualitative change before any upper limits imposed by the laws of physics or theoretical computation set in. It is speculated that over many iterations, such an AI would far surpass human cognitive abilities.
如果一种超人类智能被发明出来。无论是通过人类智能的放大还是通过人工智能，它将带来比现在的人类更强的问题解决和发明创造能力。这种人工智能被称为<font color="#ff8000">种子人工智能 Seed AI</font>。因为如果人工智能的工程能力能够与它的人类创造者相匹敌或超越，那么它就有潜力自主改进自己的软件和硬件，或者设计出更强大的机器。这台能力更强的机器可以继续设计一台能力更强的机器。这种自我递归式改进的迭代可以加速，以至于在物理定律或理论计算设定的任何上限之前产生巨大的质变。据推测，经过多次迭代，这样的人工智能将远远超过人类的认知能力。
==智能爆炸==
==智能爆炸==
Intelligence explosion is a possible outcome of humanity building [[artificial general intelligence]] (AGI). AGI would be capable of recursive self-improvement, leading to the rapid emergence of [[Superintelligence|artificial superintelligence]] (ASI), the limits of which are unknown, shortly after technological singularity is achieved.
Intelligence explosion is a possible outcome of humanity building [[artificial general intelligence]] (AGI). AGI would be capable of recursive self-improvement, leading to the rapid emergence of [[Superintelligence|artificial superintelligence]] (ASI), the limits of which are unknown, shortly after technological singularity is achieved.
智能爆炸是构建<font color="#ff8000">通用人工智能 artificial general intelligence (AGI)</font> 的可能结果。在技术奇点实现后不久，AGI 将能够进行递归式的自我迭代，从而导致<font color="#ff8000">人工超级智能 artificial superintelligence (ASI)</font> 的迅速出现，但其局限性尚不清楚。
[[I. J. Good]] speculated in 1965 that artificial general intelligence might bring about an intelligence explosion. He speculated on the effects of superhuman machines, should they ever be invented:<ref name="stat"/>
[[I. J. Good]] speculated in 1965 that artificial general intelligence might bring about an intelligence explosion. He speculated on the effects of superhuman machines, should they ever be invented:<ref name="stat"/>
1965年，I.J.Good 曾推测人工通用智能可能会带来智能爆炸。他对超人类及其的影响进行了推测，如果他们真的被发明出来的话：<ref name="stat"/>
1965年，I.J.Good 曾推测通用人工智能可能会带来智能爆炸。他对<font color="#ff8000">超人类机器 superhuman machines </font>及其影响进行了推测，如果他们真的被发明出来的话：<ref name="stat"/>
{{quote|Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control.}}
{{quote|Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control.}}