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第55行： − 马丁·福特 Martin Ford的《隧道中的灯光：自动化，加速技术和未来经济 The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future》+ − + − [[Image:PPTMooresLawai.jpg|thumb|Ray Kurzweil writes that, due to [[paradigm shift]]s, a trend of exponential growth extends [[Moore's law]] from [[integrated circuits]] to earlier [[transistor]]s, [[vacuum tube]]s, [[relay]]s, and [[electromechanics|electromechanical]] computers. He predicts that the exponential growth will continue, and that in a few decades the computing power of all computers will exceed that of ("unenhanced") human brains, with superhuman [[artificial intelligence]] appearing around the same time.|链接=Special:FilePath/PPTMooresLawai.jpg]] − − [[图片：PPTMooresLawai.jpg|thumb | Ray Kurzweil 写道，由于[[范式转换]]s，指数增长的趋势将[[摩尔定律]]从[[集成电路]]扩展到早期的[[晶体管]]、[[真空管]]、[[继电器]]和[[机电机械]]计算机。他预测，这种指数增长将继续下去，在几十年内，所有计算机的计算能力将超过（“未增强的”）人脑，同时出现超人[[人工智能]] − − − − [[资料图：摩尔超过120的定律年.png|拇指|左|摩尔定律120年的更新版本（基于[[Ray Kurzweil | Kurzweil's]][[c:文件：PPTMooresLawai.jpg|图形]]）。最近的7个数据点都是[[Nvidia GPU | Nvidia GPU]].]] − 第72行：
第64行： − + − − [[图片：ParadigmShiftsFrr15Events.svg|thumb |根据Kurzweil的说法，他对关键的[[人类历史|历史]]事件的15个[[范式转移]]列表的[[对数标度|对数图]]显示了[[指数增长|指数]]趋势]] − 第142行：
第131行： − + − − [[档案：主要进化过渡数字.jpg|thumb |直立=1.6 |生物圈中信息和复制因子的示意时间线：Gillings等人在信息处理中的“[[进化中的主要转变|主要进化转变]]”。<ref name="InfoBiosphere2016" />]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-99|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[99]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]] − − [[File:Biological vs. digital information.jpg|thumb|Amount of digital information worldwide (5{{e|21}} bytes) versus human genome information worldwide (10<sup>19</sup> bytes) in 2014.<ref name="InfoBiosphere2016" />|链接=Special:FilePath/Biological_vs._digital_information.jpg]] − − [[档案：生物vs。数字信息.jpg|2014年，全球数字信息总量（5{e | 21}字节）与全球人类基因组信息（10<sup>19</sup>字节）的对比。<ref name="InfoBiosphere2016" />]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-99|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[99]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]] 第272行：
第255行： − + − − | year=2008 − − 2008年 − − TODO: end here − − === Citations引用 === − − |url = http://berglas.org/Articles/AIKillGrandchildren/AIKillGrandchildren.html − − Http://berglas.org/articles/aikillgrandchildren/aikillgrandchildren.html − − − − − − }} − − }} − − <ref name="Allen">{{Citation |url = http://www.technologyreview.com/view/425733/paul-allen-the-singularity-isnt-near |title= Paul Allen: The Singularity Isn't Near |access-date=2015-04-12 }}</ref> − − − − | first = Nick − − 第一 = 尼克 − − <ref name="JoyFuture">{{Citation | first=Bill | last=Joy | author-link=Bill Joy | title=Why the future doesn't need us | journal=[[Wired (magazine)|Wired Magazine]] | volume=8 | date= April 2000 | issue=4 |url = https://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html | access-date=2007-08-07 | isbn=978-0-670-03249-5 | publisher=Viking Adult }}</ref> − − | last = Bostrom − − 博斯特罗姆 − − − − | author-link = Nick Bostrom − − 作者: 尼克 · 博斯特罗姆 − − <ref name="PZMyers">{{Citation |url=http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2009/02/singularly_silly_singularity.php |title=Singularly Silly Singularity |access-date=2009-04-13 |first1=PZ |last1=Myers |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090228161422/http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2009/02/singularly_silly_singularity.php |archive-date=2009-02-28 }}</ref> − − | title=Existential Risks − − 存在风险 − − − − | journal=Journal of Evolution and Technology − − 进化与技术杂志 − − <ref name="Singularity Myth">[http://www.growth-dynamics.com/articles/Kurzweil.htm Modis, Theodore. ''The Singularity Myth''] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121030072409/http://www.growth-dynamics.com/articles/Kurzweil.htm |date=2012-10-30 }}</ref> − − | year=2002 − − 2002年 − − − − | volume=9 − − | volume = 9 − − <ref name="agi-conf">[[Anders Sandberg|Sandberg, Anders]]. [http://agi-conf.org/2010/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/agi10singmodels2.pdf An overview of models of technological singularity]</ref> − − |url = http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html − − Http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html − − − − | access-date=2007-08-07 − − | access-date = 2007-08-07 − − <ref name="catastrophic">{{cite web|url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/3854/global-catastrophic-risks-report.pdf|title=GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISKS SURVEY (2008) Technical Report 2008/1 Published by Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University. Anders Sandberg and Nick Bostrom|url-status=dead|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20110516021945/http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/3854/global-catastrophic-risks-report.pdf|archivedate=2011-05-16}}</ref> − − }} − − }} − − − − <ref name="cnet">Krazit, Tom. [http://news.cnet.com/2100-1006_3-6119618.html Intel pledges 80 cores in five years], ''CNET News'', 26 September 2006.</ref> − − | last = Hibbard − − | last = Hibbard − − − − | first = Bill − − | 第一 = 比尔 − − <ref name="dreyfus">{{Harvnb|Dreyfus|Dreyfus|2000|p=xiv}}: 'The truth is that human intelligence can never be replaced with machine intelligence simply because we are not ourselves "thinking machines" in the sense in which that term is commonly understood.' {{Harvtxt|Hawking|1998}}: 'Some people say that computers can never show true intelligence whatever that may be. But it seems to me that if very complicated chemical molecules can operate in humans to make them intelligent then equally complicated electronic circuits can also make computers act in an intelligent way. And if they are intelligent they can presumably design computers that have even greater complexity and intelligence.'</ref> − − | author-link = Bill Hibbard − − | 作者链接 = Bill Hibbard − − − − | title = Ethical Artificial Intelligence − − | title = Ethical Artificial Intelligence − − <ref name="episode">{{IMDb title|847969|Episode dated 23 August 2006}}</ref> − − | date = 5 November 2014 − − | 日期 = 2014年11月5日 − − − − | eprint=1411.1373 − − 1411.1373 − − <ref name="google">Ray Kurzweil, ''[[The Age of Spiritual Machines]]'', Viking; 1999, {{ISBN|978-0-14-028202-3}}. pp. [https://books.google.com/books?id=ldAGcyh0bkUC&pg=PA630 30, 32]</ref> − − | class = cs.AI − − 2012年10月12日 | class = cs.AI − − − − | ref=harv − − = harv − − <ref name="google13">Theodore Modis, [http://www.growth-dynamics.com/articles/TedWEB.htm Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change], ''Technological Forecasting & Social Change'', 69, No 4, 2002 {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120615054939/http://www.growth-dynamics.com/articles/TedWEB.htm |date=June 15, 2012 }}</ref> − − }} − − <ref name="google4">Dooling, Richard. ''[[Rapture for the Geeks|Rapture for the Geeks: When AI Outsmarts IQ]]'' (2008), [https://books.google.com/books?id=VbBRsv1lxsUC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA88 p. 88]</ref>+ − − − − <ref name="google5">Dooling, Richard. ''[[Rapture for the Geeks|Rapture for the Geeks: When AI Outsmarts IQ]]'' (2008), [https://books.google.com/books?id=VbBRsv1lxsUC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA89 p. 89]</ref> − − − − <ref name="hplusmagazine">{{cite web|url=http://www.hplusmagazine.com/articles/nano/singularity-nanotech-or-ai |title=h+ Magazine | Covering technological, scientific, and cultural trends that are changing human beings in fundamental ways |publisher=Hplusmagazine.com |accessdate=2011-09-09}}</ref> − − − − <ref name="ieee">{{cite web|url=https://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/whos-who-in-the-singularity |title=Who's Who In The Singularity – IEEE Spectrum |publisher=Spectrum.ieee.org |accessdate=2011-09-09}}</ref> − − − − <ref name="mathematical">{{cite journal|url=https://www.ams.org/journals/bull/1958-64-03/S0002-9904-1958-10189-5/S0002-9904-1958-10189-5.pdf | last=Ulam|first=Stanislaw |title=Tribute to John von Neumann|publisher=Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society|volume=64, #3, part 2|date=May 1958|page=5}}</ref> − − − − <ref name="moreblades">{{Citation |title=More blades good |author=Anonymous |newspaper=The Economist |date=18 March 2006 |url=http://www.economist.com/science/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5624861 |location=London |page=85 |volume=378 |issue=8469 }}</ref> − − − − <ref name="nickbostrom">{{cite web |url = http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html |title=Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards |website=nickbostrom.com }}</ref> − − − − <ref name="nytimes">{{cite news |url = https://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/05/science/05legal.html |newspaper = The New York Times | first=John | last=Markoff | title=Armies of Expensive Lawyers, Replaced by Cheaper Software | date=2011-03-04}}</ref> − − − − <ref name="singularity">Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near, pp. 135–136. Penguin Group, 2005.</ref> − − − − <ref name="singularity2">Ray Kurzweil, ''The Singularity is Near'', Penguin Group, 2005</ref> − − − − <ref name="singularity3">Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near, p. 9. Penguin Group, 2005</ref> − − Category:Eschatology − − 类别: 末世论 − − − − Category:Futures studies − − 类别: 未来研究 − − <ref name="singularityu">[http://singularityu.org/ Singularity University] at its official website</ref> − − Category:Philosophy of artificial intelligence − − 范畴: 人工智能哲学 − − − − Category:Existential risk from artificial general intelligence − − 类别: 来自人工一般智能的世界末日 − − <noinclude> − <small>This page was moved from [[wikipedia:en:Technological singularity]]. Its edit history can be viewed at [[技术奇点/edithistory]]</small></noinclude>+ − +
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'''技术奇点 Technological singularity'''——简称奇点 Singularity<ref>Cadwalladr, Carole (2014). "[https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/feb/22/robots-google-ray-kurzweil-terminator-singularity-artificial-intelligence Are the robots about to rise? Google's new director of engineering thinks so…]" ''The Guardian''. Guardian News and Media Limited.</ref>是一个假设的时间点。在该时间点上，技术的增长变得不可控制和不可逆转，从而导致人类文明发生无法预见的变化。<ref>{{cite web |title=Collection of sources defining "singularity" |url=http://www.singularitysymposium.com/definition-of-singularity.html |website=singularitysymposium.com |accessdate=17 April 2019}}</ref><ref name="Singularity hypotheses">{{cite book |author1=Eden, Amnon H. |author2=Moor, James H. |title=Singularity hypotheses: A Scientific and Philosophical Assessment |date=2012 |publisher=Springer |location=Dordrecht |isbn=9783642325601 |pages=1–2}}</ref>根据奇点假说（也被称为智能爆炸 intelligence explosion）最流行的版本：一个可升级的智能体终将进入一种自我完善循环的'''失控反应 runaway reaction'''”。每个新的、更智能的世代将出现得越来越快，导致智能的“爆炸”，并产生一种在实质上远超所有人类智能的超级智能。
'''技术奇点 Technological singularity'''——简称奇点 Singularity<ref>Cadwalladr, Carole (2014). "[https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/feb/22/robots-google-ray-kurzweil-terminator-singularity-artificial-intelligence Are the robots about to rise? Google's new director of engineering thinks so…]" ''The Guardian''. Guardian News and Media Limited.</ref>是一个假设的时间点。在该时间点上，技术的增长变得不可控制和不可逆转，从而导致人类文明发生无法预见的变化。<ref>{{cite web |title=Collection of sources defining "singularity" |url=http://www.singularitysymposium.com/definition-of-singularity.html |website=singularitysymposium.com |accessdate=17 April 2019}}</ref><ref name="Singularity hypotheses">{{cite book |author1=Eden, Amnon H. |author2=Moor, James H. |title=Singularity hypotheses: A Scientific and Philosophical Assessment |date=2012 |publisher=Springer |location=Dordrecht |isbn=9783642325601 |pages=1–2}}</ref>根据奇点假说（也被称为智能爆炸 intelligence explosion）最流行的版本：一个可升级的智能体终将进入一种自我完善循环的'''失控反应 runaway reaction'''”。每个新的、更智能的世代将出现得越来越快，导致智能的“爆炸”，并产生一种在实质上远超所有人类智能的超级智能。
第一次在科技领域使用“奇点”这一概念的人是冯·诺依曼 John von Neumann<ref>''The Technological Singularity'' by Murray Shanahan, (MIT Press, 2015), page 233</ref>。Stanislaw Ulam报告了一次与冯·诺依曼的讨论。“围绕技术的加速进步和人类生活模式的改变，这让我们看到了人类历史上一些本质上的奇点。<ref name="mathematical" />一旦超越了这些奇点，我们所熟知的人类事务就将无法继续下去了”。后来的作者也赞同这一观点。<ref name="Singularity hypotheses" /><ref name="chalmers">{{Cite journal|last=Chalmers|first=David|date=2010|title=The singularity: a philosophical analysis|url=|journal=Journal of Consciousness Studies|volume=17|issue=9–10|pages=7–65|via=}}</ref>
第一次在科技领域使用“奇点”这一概念的人是冯·诺依曼 John von Neumann<ref>''The Technological Singularity'' by Murray Shanahan, (MIT Press, 2015), page 233</ref>。Stanislaw Ulam报告了一次与冯·诺依曼的讨论。“围绕技术的加速进步和人类生活模式的改变，这让我们看到了人类历史上一些本质上的奇点。<ref name="Stanislaw Ulam">Ulam, Stanislaw (May 1958). "Tribute to John von Neumann" (PDF). Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society. 64, #3, part 2: 5. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2021-02-15. Retrieved 2018-11-07.</ref>一旦超越了这些奇点，我们所熟知的人类事务就将无法继续下去了”。后来的作者也赞同这一观点。<ref name="Singularity hypotheses" /><ref name="chalmers">{{Cite journal|last=Chalmers|first=David|date=2010|title=The singularity: a philosophical analysis|url=|journal=Journal of Consciousness Studies|volume=17|issue=9–10|pages=7–65|via=}}</ref>
I. J.古德的“智能爆炸”模型预测未来的超级智能将触发一个奇点。<ref name="vinge1993">Vinge, Vernor. [http://mindstalk.net/vinge/vinge-sing.html "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era"], in ''Vision-21: Interdisciplinary Science and Engineering in the Era of Cyberspace'', G. A. Landis, ed., NASA Publication CP-10129, pp. 11–22, 1993.</ref>
I. J.古德的“智能爆炸”模型预测未来的超级智能将触发一个奇点。<ref name="vinge1993">Vinge, Vernor. [http://mindstalk.net/vinge/vinge-sing.html "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era"], in ''Vision-21: Interdisciplinary Science and Engineering in the Era of Cyberspace'', G. A. Landis, ed., NASA Publication CP-10129, pp. 11–22, 1993.</ref>
“奇点”的概念和术语是由Vernor Vinge在他1993年的文章《即将到来的技术奇点 The Coming Technological Singularity》中得到推广的。他在文中写道，这将标志着人类时代的终结，因为新的超级智能将持续自我升级，并以不可思议的速度在技术上进步。他写道，如果奇点发生在2005年之前或2030年之后，他会感到惊讶。<ref name="vinge1993" />
“奇点”的概念和术语是由Vernor Vinge在他1993年的文章《即将到来的技术奇点 The Coming Technological Singularity》中得到推广的。他在文中写道，这将标志着人类时代的终结，因为新的超级智能将持续自我升级，并以不可思议的速度在技术上进步。他写道，如果奇点发生在2005年之前或2030年之后，他会感到惊讶。<ref name="vinge1993" />
斯蒂芬·霍金 Stephen Hawking和埃隆·马斯克 Elon Musk等公众人物对完全人工智能（AI）可能导致人类灭绝表示担忧。<ref>{{cite news|last1=Sparkes|first1=Matthew|title=Top scientists call for caution over artificial intelligence|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/11342200/Top-scientists-call-for-caution-over-artificial-intelligence.html|accessdate=24 April 2015|work=[[The Daily Telegraph|The Telegraph (UK)]]|date=13 January 2015}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-30290540|title=Hawking: AI could end human race|date=2 December 2014|publisher=BBC|accessdate=11 November 2017}}</ref>奇点的后果及其对人类的潜在利益或伤害一直存在激烈的争论。
斯蒂芬·霍金 Stephen Hawking和埃隆·马斯克 Elon Musk等公众人物对完全人工智能（AI）可能导致人类灭绝表示担忧。<ref>{{cite news|last1=Sparkes|first1=Matthew|title=Top scientists call for caution over artificial intelligence|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/11342200/Top-scientists-call-for-caution-over-artificial-intelligence.html|accessdate=24 April 2015|work=The Daily Telegraph|date=13 January 2015}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-30290540|title=Hawking: AI could end human race|date=2 December 2014|publisher=BBC|accessdate=11 November 2017}}</ref>奇点的后果及其对人类的潜在利益或伤害一直存在激烈的争论。
2012年到2013年期间，Nick Bostrom和 Vincent c. Müller对人工智能研究人员进行了四次调查。结果显示，通用人工智能（artificial general intelligence，AGI）在2040年至2050年被成功开发出来的概率估计的中位数为50%。<ref name="newyorker">{{cite news|last1=Khatchadourian|first1=Raffi|title=The Doomsday Invention|url=https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/11/23/doomsday-invention-artificial-intelligence-nick-bostrom|accessdate=31 January 2018|work=The New Yorker|date=16 November 2015}}</ref><ref>Müller, V. C., & Bostrom, N. (2016). "Future progress in artificial intelligence: A survey of expert opinion". In V. C. Müller (ed): ''Fundamental issues of artificial intelligence'' (pp. 555–572). Springer, Berlin. http://philpapers.org/rec/MLLFPI</ref>
2012年到2013年期间，Nick Bostrom和 Vincent c. Müller对人工智能研究人员进行了四次调查。结果显示，通用人工智能（artificial general intelligence，AGI）在2040年至2050年被成功开发出来的概率估计的中位数为50%。<ref name="newyorker">{{cite news|last1=Khatchadourian|first1=Raffi|title=The Doomsday Invention|url=https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/11/23/doomsday-invention-artificial-intelligence-nick-bostrom|accessdate=31 January 2018|work=The New Yorker|date=16 November 2015}}</ref><ref>Müller, V. C., & Bostrom, N. (2016). "Future progress in artificial intelligence: A survey of expert opinion". In V. C. Müller (ed): ''Fundamental issues of artificial intelligence'' (pp. 555–572). Springer, Berlin. http://philpapers.org/rec/MLLFPI</ref>
很难直接将基于硅的硬件与神经元相比较。但是Berglas（2008）<ref name=:"Berglas">Berglas, Anthony (2008), Artificial Intelligence will Kill our Grandchildren, archived from the original on 2014-07-23, retrieved 2008-06-13</ref>指出计算机语音识别正在接近人类的能力，而且这种能力似乎只需要0.01%的脑容量。这个类比表明，现代计算机硬件与人脑一样强大，只差几个数量级。
很难直接将基于硅的硬件与神经元相比较。但是Berglas（2008）<ref name=:"Berglas">Berglas, Anthony (2008), Artificial Intelligence will Kill our Grandchildren, archived from the original on 2014-07-23, retrieved 2008-06-13</ref>指出计算机语音识别正在接近人类的能力，而且这种能力似乎只需要0.01%的脑容量。这个类比表明，现代计算机硬件与人脑一样强大，只差几个数量级。
====指数增长====
====指数增长====
[[文件:Moore's Law over 120 Years.jpg|缩略图|右|120年来摩尔定律的更新版本（基于库兹韦尔的图表）。 最新的7个数据点都是NVIDIA图形处理器。]]
[[文件:PPTMooresLawai.jpg|缩略图|右|雷·库兹韦尔（Ray Kurzweil）写道，由于范式的转变，指数增长的趋势将摩尔定律从集成电路扩展到更早的晶体管、真空管、继电器和机电计算机。他预测，指数级增长将持续下去，几十年后，所有计算机的计算能力都将超过（未增强的）人脑，与超人人工智能的出现时间大致相同。]]
[[File:Moore's Law over 120 Years.png|thumb|left|An updated version of Moore's law over 120 Years (based on [[Ray Kurzweil|Kurzweil's]] [[c:File:PPTMooresLawai.jpg|graph]]). The 7 most recent data points are all [[Nvidia GPUs|NVIDIA GPUs]].|链接=Special:FilePath/Moore's_Law_over_120_Years.png]]
摩尔定律所建议的计算技术的指数增长通常被认为是在相对不远的将来出现奇点的一个理由，许多作者已经提出了摩尔定律的推广。计算机科学家和未来主义者Hans Moravec在1998年的一本书中提到<ref>{{cite book|author=Moravec, Hans|title=Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind|year=1999|publisher=Oxford U. Press|page=61|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=fduW6KHhWtQC&pg=PA61|isbn=978-0-19-513630-2}}</ref>指数型增长曲线可以沿着集成电路之前的早期计算技术进行延伸。
摩尔定律所建议的计算技术的指数增长通常被认为是在相对不远的将来出现奇点的一个理由，许多作者已经提出了摩尔定律的推广。计算机科学家和未来主义者Hans Moravec在1998年的一本书中提到<ref>{{cite book|author=Moravec, Hans|title=Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind|year=1999|publisher=Oxford U. Press|page=61|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=fduW6KHhWtQC&pg=PA61|isbn=978-0-19-513630-2}}</ref>指数型增长曲线可以沿着集成电路之前的早期计算技术进行延伸。
====加速变革====
====加速变革====
[[Image:ParadigmShiftsFrr15Events.svg|thumb|According to Kurzweil, his [[logarithmic scale|logarithmic graph]] of 15 lists of [[paradigm shift]]s for key [[human history|historic]] events shows an [[exponential growth|exponential]] trend|链接=Special:FilePath/ParadigmShiftsFrr15Events.svg]]
[[文件:ParadigmShiftsFrr15Events.jpg|缩略图|右|根据库兹韦尔的说法，他的15个关键历史事件范式转变列表的对数图显示出指数趋势。]]
一些奇点论的支持者认为，通过对过去趋势的推断，特别是那些缩减技术进步的差距有关的趋势，奇点是不可避免的。技术进步的背景下，较早使用“奇点”一词时，Stanislaw Ulam讲述了与冯·诺伊曼关于加速变革的一次谈话：
一些奇点论的支持者认为，通过对过去趋势的推断，特别是那些缩减技术进步的差距有关的趋势，奇点是不可避免的。技术进步的背景下，较早使用“奇点”一词时，Stanislaw Ulam讲述了与冯·诺伊曼关于加速变革的一次谈话：
::一次围绕不断加速的技术进步和生活方式变化的对话，它使得人类历史上出现了一些基本的奇点，超过了这些奇点，如我们所知的那些人类的事务，将无法继续下去。<ref name=mathematical/>
::一次围绕不断加速的技术进步和生活方式变化的对话，它使得人类历史上出现了一些基本的奇点，超过了这些奇点，如我们所知的那些人类的事务，将无法继续下去。<ref name=mathematical/>
===社会生物进化的下一步===
===社会生物进化的下一步===
[[File:Major Evolutionary Transitions digital.jpg|thumb|upright=1.6|Schematic Timeline of Information and Replicators in the Biosphere: Gillings et al.'s "[[The Major Transitions in Evolution|major evolutionary transitions]]" in information processing.<ref name="InfoBiosphere2016" />|链接=Special:FilePath/Major_Evolutionary_Transitions_digital.jpg]]
[[文件:Major Evolutionary Transitions digital.jpg|缩略图|右|生物圈中信息和复制因子的时间线示意图：Gillings等人在信息处理中的“重大进化转变”。<ref name="InfoBiosphere2016" />]]
虽然技术奇点通常被视为一个突发事件，但一些学者认为目前的变化速度已经符合这种描述。
虽然技术奇点通常被视为一个突发事件，但一些学者认为目前的变化速度已经符合这种描述。
* 技术失业——由技术变革引起的失业
* 技术失业——由技术变革引起的失业
== References ==
==参考文献==
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[[Category:人工智能哲学]]
[[Category:未来研究]]
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[[Category:末世论]]