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第1行： − In futures studies and the history of technology, accelerating change is a perceived increase in the rate of technological change throughout history, which may suggest faster and more profound change in the future and may or may not be accompanied by equally profound social and cultural change. − 在未来研究（ [[futures studies]]）和技术史研究（[[history of technology]]）中，加速变化指随着历史的发展，人们觉察到技术变革的速率越来越快的现象。这种技术加速变革的趋势意味着，在未来，技术会以更快的速度发展，对人类文明的影响也更加深远，而社会的组织方式和文化变革也许追赶不上。+ − In 1910 during the town planning conference of London [[Daniel Burnham]] noted, "But it is not merely in the number of facts or sorts of knowledge that progress lies: it is still more in the geometric ratio of sophistication, in the [[geometric growth|geometric widening]] of the sphere of knowledge, which every year is taking in a larger percentage of people as time goes on."<ref name="Transactions">{{Cite book|url=https://archive.org/details/transactions00town|title=Transactions|first1=England)|last1=Town Planning Conference (1910 : London|last2=Royal Institute of British Architects|date=8 July 2018|publisher=London : Royal Institute of British Architects|via=Internet Archive}}</ref> And later on, "It is the argument with which I began, that a mighty change having come about in fifty years, and our pace of development having immensely accelerated, our sons and grandsons are going to demand and get results that would stagger us."<ref name="Transactions"/> − 1910年在伦敦城市规划会议上，丹尼尔 · 伯纳姆（[[Daniel Burnham]]）指出:“进步的基础，不仅仅只是事实或知识在数量上的堆砌，而是这些知识所呈现出的指数级的复杂度，和知识所涉足的领域的几何级数性的扩展，随着时间的推移，越来越多的人会参与到知识的创造过程中。” 在他发言的最后，他再次强调，“正如我一开始所提出来的观点，接下来的50年，会发生巨大的变化，发展的步伐会大大加快。等到我们的儿辈孙辈那个时候，他们对社会对变化的渴求，对技术的可能性的憧憬和要求，一定会令今天在座的我们震惊。” − In 1938, [[Buckminster Fuller]] introduced the word [[ephemeralization]] to describe the trends of "doing more with less" in chemistry, health and other areas of [[industrial development]].<ref>[[Buckminster Fuller|R. Buckminster Fuller]], ''[[Nine Chains to the Moon]]'', [[Southern Illinois University Press]] [1938] 1963 pp. 276–79.</ref> In 1946, Fuller published a chart of the discoveries of the chemical elements over time to highlight the development of accelerating acceleration in human knowledge acquisition.<ref>[[Buckminster Fuller|R. Buckminster Fuller]], ''[[Synergetics (Fuller)]]'', http://www.rwgrayprojects.com/synergetics/s04/figs/f1903.html</ref>+ − In 1938, Buckminster Fuller introduced the word ephemeralization to describe the trends of "doing more with less" in chemistry, health and other areas of industrial development. In 1946, Fuller published a chart of the discoveries of the chemical elements over time to highlight the development of accelerating acceleration in human knowledge acquisition.R. Buckminster Fuller, Synergetics (Fuller), http://www.rwgrayprojects.com/synergetics/s04/figs/f1903.html+ − 1938年，巴克敏斯特·富勒（Buckminster Fuller）引入了Ephermeralization这个概念来描述化学、医疗保健和其他工业发展领域中“少花钱多办事”的趋势。1946年，富勒发表了一张化学元素发现的时间表，展示了人类加速获取的知识的趋势。http://www.rwgrayprojects.com/Synergetics/s04/figs/f1903.html+ + − In 1958, [[Stanislaw Ulam]] wrote in reference to a conversation with [[John von Neumann]]: {{quote|One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.<ref name="mathematical">}}+ − In 1958, Stanislaw Ulam wrote in reference to a conversation with John von Neumann: "One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue". − 1958年，Stanislaw Ulam 在致敬约翰·冯·诺伊曼的文中，回忆起他们之间的一次谈话：“那次谈话就围绕了，日益加快的技术进步和人类生活方式的变革。这些现象让人感觉，人类在这场旷日持久的科技竞赛中，正在接近本性基点（essential singularity）的界限。一旦跨越这个界限，人类活动便无法维系。”+ − + − In a series of published articles from 1974–1979, and then in his 1988 book ''Mind Children'', computer scientist and futurist [[Hans Moravec]] generalizes [[Moore's law]] to make predictions about the future of artificial life. Moore's law describes an [[exponential growth]] pattern in the complexity of integrated semiconductor circuits. Moravec extends this to include technologies from long before the integrated circuit to future forms of technology. Moravec outlines a timeline and a scenario<ref>{{cite journal| url=http://www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm| journal=Journal of Evolution and Technology| date=1998| volume=1| title=When will computer hardware match the human brain?| first=Hans| last=Moravec| access-date=2006-06-23| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060615031852/http://transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm| archive-date=15 June 2006| url-status=dead}}</ref><ref>{{cite web| url=http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/general.articles/1993/Robot93.html| title= The Age of Robots|date=June 1993| first=Hans| last=Moravec| access-date=2006-06-23| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20060615055406/http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/general.articles/1993/Robot93.html| archive-date= 15 June 2006 | url-status= live}}</ref> in which robots will evolve into a new series of artificial species, starting around 2030–2040.<ref>{{cite web| url=http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/robot.papers/2004/Predictions.html| title=Robot Predictions Evolution| first=Hans| last=Moravec|date=April 2004| access-date=2006-06-23| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20060616045535/http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/robot.papers/2004/Predictions.html| archive-date= 16 June 2006 | url-status= live}}</ref> − In ''Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind'', published in 1998, Moravec further considers the implications of evolving [[robot intelligence]], generalizing [[Moore's Law]] to technologies predating the [[integrated circuit]], and also plotting the exponentially increasing computational power of the brains of animals in evolutionary history. Extrapolating these trends, he speculates about a coming "mind fire" of rapidly expanding [[superintelligence]] similar to the [[intelligence explosion|explosion of intelligence]] predicted by Vinge. − 计算机科学家和未来学家汉斯 · 莫拉维克在他1974-1979年发表的一系列文章中，以及1988年出版的《思想的孩子》一书中，将摩尔定律做了推广延伸。并据此预测了人工生命的未来发展趋势。严格来说，摩尔定律是特指半导体集成电路的复杂程度随着时间的推移，呈现出指数增长的规律。莫拉维克把摩尔定律的使用范围推广到半导体集成电路之外的技术领域，包括集成电路出现之前的一些技术，以及未来可能出现的新的技术形式。他绘制了一个时间技术演化表，从表中反映出的规律来看，他认为到2030-2040年开始，机器人将进化成一系列新的人工物种。莫拉维克在1998年出版的《机器人: 从纯粹的机器到超验的思维》一书中，进一步分析了机器智能的演化的含义，发现了动物大脑的算力在演化时间轴上的增长速度与摩尔定律相似。据此，他认为这些趋势预示着与Vinge预测的智能爆炸相似的超级智能-心灵之火”即将到来。+ − − == James Burke's ''Connections （詹姆斯 · 伯克的联结）'' == − {{Main|Connections (British documentary)}}In his TV series Connections (1978)—and sequels Connections² (1994) and Connections³ (1997)—James Burke explores an "Alternative View of Change" (the subtitle of the series) that rejects the conventional linear and teleological view of historical progress. Burke contends that one cannot consider the development of any particular piece of the modern world in isolation. Rather, the entire gestalt of the modern world is the result of a web of interconnected events, each one consisting of a person or group acting for reasons of their own motivations (e.g., profit, curiosity, religious) with no concept of the final, modern result to which the actions of either them or their contemporaries would lead. The interplay of the results of these isolated events is what drives history and innovation, and is also the main focus of the series and its sequels. − − 詹姆斯 · 伯克的《关联》在他的电视连续剧《关联》(1978)以及1994，1997版的续集中探讨了非线性的，无目的“另类变革观”(该剧的副标题) 的历史观。伯克认为，在现代，任何特定部分的发展，都不能孤立对待，而应当把现代世界当作是一个由相互交织的事件网络组成的整体。这个事件网络，由一个个相对孤立的事件组成，每个事件是当事人或者团体为了实现他们各自的目的（比如，利益驱使，好奇心驱使，宗教原因）而付出的行动。个体或者团体，在决策或行动时，是完全不考虑他这些行为在更大的范围内会造成什么影响。而恰恰是这些孤立的事件，在现实中铺展开来时，其影响波及到其它事件，而改变了历史，创造了新的可能。这也正是伯克在连续剧《关联》及其续集中所探讨的核心问题。 − − Burke also explores three corollaries to his initial thesis. The first is that, if history is driven by individuals who act only on what they know at the time, and not because of any idea as to where their actions will eventually lead, then predicting the future course of technological progress is merely conjecture. Therefore, if we are astonished by the connections Burke is able to weave among past events, then we will be equally surprised to what the events of today eventually will lead, especially events we weren't even aware of at the time. − − The second and third corollaries are explored most in the introductory and concluding episodes, and they represent the downside of an interconnected history. If history progresses because of the synergistic interaction of past events and innovations, then as history does progress, the number of these events and innovations increases. This increase in possible connections causes the process of innovation to not only continue, but to accelerate. Burke poses the question of what happens when this rate of innovation, or more importantly change itself, becomes too much for the average person to handle, and what this means for individual power, liberty, and privacy. − + − In his book "Mindsteps to the Cosmos" (HarperCollins, August 1983), [[Gerald Hawkins|Gerald S. Hawkins]] elucidated his notion of 'mindsteps', dramatic and irreversible changes to [[paradigms]] or world views. He identified five distinct mindsteps in human history, and the technology that accompanied these "new world views": the invention of imagery, writing, mathematics, printing, the telescope, rocket, radio, TV, computer... "Each one takes the collective mind closer to reality, one stage further along in its understanding of the relation of humans to the cosmos." He noted: "The waiting period between the mindsteps is getting shorter. One can't help noticing the acceleration." Hawkins' empirical 'mindstep equation' quantified this, and gave dates for future mindsteps. The date of the next mindstep (5; the series begins at 0) is given as 2021, with two further, successively closer mindsteps in 2045 and 2051, until the limit of the series in 2053. His speculations ventured beyond the technological: − 杰拉德 · s · 霍金斯(Gerald s. Hawkins)在他的著作《通向宇宙奥秘的认知阶梯》(Mindsteps to the Cosmos，HarperCollins，1983年8月)中阐明了他的“认知阶梯”(Mindsteps)概念，即思维范式或世界观发生巨大的且不可逆转的变化。他认为人类历史上曾经历了五次“认知阶梯”式跨越，每一次认知跨越都伴随着技术的进步：图像操控能力、文字书写、数学、印刷术、望远镜、火箭、无线电、电视、计算机... ... “每一次进步都让人类整个群体的认知更接近客观存在的现实，帮助人们更好地理解人与宇宙之间的关系。”他指出: “这样的认知阶梯式的跨越所需要的时间越来越短，人们很难注意不到它正在加快。”霍金斯发明了一个经验性的方程来量化“认知阶梯”之间的时间间隔。由这个方程可以推算出人类跨越下一个认知阶梯，也就是人类历史上的第五个认知阶梯，将会发生在2021年。紧随其后的认知第六次和第七次将会发生在2045年和2051年。到2053年，人类集体的认知的能力达到极限。+ − [[Image:PPTMASSuseInventionsLogPRINT.jpg|thumb|right|200px|Mass use of inventions: Years until use by a quarter of US population|链接=Special:FilePath/PPTMASSuseInventionsLogPRINT.jpg]]+ − thumb|right|200px|Mass use of inventions: Years until use by a quarter of US population+ − 大量的发明使用: 直到四分之一的美国人使用为止+ − ==Vinge's exponentially accelerating change== − The mathematician [[Vernor Vinge]] popularized his ideas about exponentially accelerating technological change in the science fiction novel ''[[Marooned in Realtime]]'' (1986), set in a world of rapidly accelerating progress leading to the emergence of more and more sophisticated technologies separated by shorter and shorter time intervals, until a point beyond human comprehension is reached. His subsequent [[Hugo award]]-winning novel ''[[A Fire Upon the Deep]]'' (1992) starts with an imaginative description of the evolution of a [[superintelligence]] passing through exponentially accelerating developmental stages ending in a [[Transcendence (religion)|transcendent]], almost [[omnipotent]] power unfathomable by mere humans. His already mentioned influential 1993 paper on the [[technological singularity]] compactly summarizes the basic ideas. − 数学家弗诺·文奇(Vernor Vinge)在科幻小说《实时放逐》(1986)中讲述了一个技术以指数级的速度突飞猛进，导致越来越多越来越复杂的新技术越来越快的速度出现在人们的生活中，直到技术的发展超越了人类理解能力的极限。随后，他在斩获雨果奖的小说《深渊之火》(1992)中，通过丰富的想象，揭开了一个超级智能文明访问正值科技暴涨，无所不能的人类文明。他在1993年发表的《技术奇点》的文章中也提纲挈领地概述了这个故事。+ − ==Kurzweil's The Law of Accelerating Returns== − − = 库兹韦尔加速回报定律 = − − In his 1999 book ''[[The Age of Spiritual Machines]]'', [[Ray Kurzweil]] proposed "The Law of Accelerating Returns", according to which the rate of change in a wide variety of evolutionary systems (including but not limited to the growth of technologies) tends to increase exponentially.<ref name=":0">Ray Kurzweil, ''The Age of Spiritual Machines'', Viking, 1999, [https://books.google.com/books?id=ldAGcyh0bkUC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA630#v=onepage&q&f=false p. 30] and [https://books.google.com/books?id=ldAGcyh0bkUC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA632#v=onepage&q&f=false p. 32]</ref> He gave further focus to this issue in a 2001 essay entitled "The Law of Accelerating Returns".<ref name=":1">[http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns ''The Law of Accelerating Returns'']. [[Ray Kurzweil]], March 7, 2001.</ref> In it, Kurzweil, after Moravec, argued for extending Moore's Law to describe [[exponential growth]] of diverse forms of [[technology|technological]] progress. Whenever a technology approaches some kind of a barrier, according to Kurzweil, a new technology will be invented to allow us to cross that barrier. He cites numerous past examples of this to substantiate his assertions. He predicts that such [[paradigm shift]]s have and will continue to become increasingly common, leading to "technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history". He believes the Law of Accelerating Returns implies that a [[technological singularity]] will occur before the end of the 21st century, around 2045. The essay begins: − − 1999年，库兹韦尔(Ray Kurzweil)出版了《精神机器时代》(The Age of Spiritual Machines)，在书中他提出了“加速回报法则”(The Law of Accelerating Returns) 。这个法则描述了各种具有进化能力的系统(包括但不限于技术增长)，其发展的速度呈现出指数增长的规律。<ref name=":0" /> 2001年，库兹韦尔发表了题为《加速回报法则》的论文，专门讨论了这个问题。<ref name=":1" /> 在这篇论文中，库兹韦尔采用了和莫拉维克一样的方法，把摩尔定律扩展到更加普遍性的技术发展行业。库兹韦尔认为，每当一项技术接近某种障碍时，就会有一项新技术发明问世，跨越技术障碍。他援引了大量的例子来说明他的论点。他预言这种范式转移的情况已经非常普遍了，未来会越来越明显，到某一个节点“技术变革异常迅速而深刻，人类历史将会由此断裂”。他认为，加速回报定律意味着技术奇点将在2045年左右出现。 − − − The Law of Accelerating Returns has in many ways altered public perception of Moore's law. It is a common (but mistaken) belief that Moore's law makes predictions regarding all forms of technology, when really it only concerns semiconductor circuits. Many futurists still use the term "Moore's law" to describe ideas like those put forth by Moravec, Kurzweil and others. − According to Kurzweil, since the beginning of [[evolution]], more complex life forms have been evolving exponentially faster, with shorter and shorter intervals between the emergence of radically new life forms, such as human beings, who have the capacity to engineer (i.e. intentionally design with efficiency) a new trait which replaces relatively blind evolutionary mechanisms of selection for efficiency. By extension, the rate of technical progress amongst humans has also been exponentially increasing, as we discover more effective ways to do things, we also discover more effective ways to learn, i.e. [[language]], numbers, written language, [[philosophy]], [[scientific method]], instruments of observation, tallying devices, mechanical calculators, computers, each of these major advances in our ability to account for information occur increasingly close together. Already within the past sixty years, life in the industrialized world has changed almost beyond recognition except for living memories from the first half of the 20th century. This pattern will culminate in unimaginable technological progress in the 21st century, leading to a singularity. Kurzweil elaborates on his views in his books ''The Age of Spiritual Machines'' and ''[[The Singularity Is Near]]''. − 库兹韦尔说，自进化历史开端开始以来，新的复杂生命的形态就是指数级的速度在进化，演化出全新的生命形态所需要的时间越来越短。以人类为例，我们有改造环境的能力，能够有目的性地高效设计。这个新出现的生命特征，取代了相对盲目的通过进化机制来进行效率筛选。推而广之，人类技术进步的速度也在指数级增长，随着人们发明的高效的工具的增多，我们也发现了如何更有效地学习的工具：语言，数字，书写，哲学，科学方法，观察工具，计数装置，机械计算器，计算机等等。这些记录信息的工具的出现时间，越往后越短。在过去的60年里，工业化国家的生活已经发生了翻天覆地的变化，20世纪上半叶生活只存在记忆中了。在21世纪，技术进步会继续加速发展，直到达到巅峰的奇点。这些观点，库兹韦尔在《精神机器时代》和《奇点迫近》有详细阐述。+ − + − Applying a scientific approach, we will notice in natural science that it is typical that processes characterized by exponential acceleration in their initial stages go into the saturation phase. This clearly makes it possible to realize that if an increase with acceleration is observed over a certain period of time, this does not mean an endless continuation of this process. On the contrary, in many cases this means an early exit to the plateau of speed. The processes occurring in natural science allow us to suggest that the observed picture of accelerating scientific and technological progress, after some time (in physical processes, as a rule, is short) will be replaced by a slowdown and a complete stop? Despite the possible termination / attenuation of the acceleration of the progress of science and technology in the foreseeable future, progress itself, and as a result, social transformations, will not stop or even slow down - it will continue with the achieved (possibly huge) speed, which has become constant.<ref name=":2">[https://philosophyjournal.spbu.ru/article/view/3182/2943 Shestakova I.' To the Question of the Limits of Progress: Is a Singularity Possible?.]</ref>+ − 如果我们用科学的方法去分析自然科学中存在的一个过程，我们不难发现，那些最初阶段表现出指数增长这一特性的过程，最后都会进入饱和的状态。也就是说，如果我们观察到一个事物在一段时间以指数级的速度增长，这并不意味着这一过程会无休止地继续下去。相反，在许多情况下，这意味着提前达到饱和。从我们在自然科学中发现的规律来看，事物在一段时间的加速增长后(在物理过程中，这个阶段往往都是短暂的)，将会减缓甚至完全停滞？尽管在可预见的将来，科学和技术的加速进步可能会减缓，终结，但人类不会停止追求进步的脚步，因此社会社会变革也会持续以目前所达到的速度继续向前。<ref name=":2" /> − Accelerating change may not be restricted to the [[Anthropocene]] Epoch,<ref>{{Cite journal|title=The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration|journal=The Anthropocene Review|volume=2|pages=81–98|doi=10.1177/2053019614564785|year = 2015|last1 = Steffen|first1 = Will|last2=Broadgate|first2=Wendy|last3=Deutsch|first3=Lisa|last4=Gaffney|first4=Owen|last5=Ludwig|first5=Cornelia|hdl=1885/66463|s2cid=131524600|url=https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/66463/8/01_Steffen_GREAT%20ACCELERATION_2015.pdf|hdl-access=free}}</ref> but a general and predictable developmental feature of the universe.<ref name="auto">{{Cite book| publisher = Government Printing Office, NASA SP-2009-4802| pages = 201–295| editor1 = S. J. Dick| editor2 = Mark L. Lupisella| last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = Cosmos and Culture: Cultural Evolution in a Cosmic Context| chapter = Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture.| location = Washington D.C.| date = 2009| chapter-url = http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartEvoDevoUniv2008.pdf| access-date = 2017-03-15| archive-date = 2017-01-24| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20170124023933/http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartEvoDevoUniv2008.pdf| url-status = dead}}</ref> The physical processes that generate an acceleration such as Moore's law are positive feedback loops giving rise to exponential or superexponential technological change.<ref name=":3">{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.07.006| issn = 0040-1625| volume = 78| issue = 8| pages = 1356–1364| last1 = Nagy| first1 = Béla| last2 = Farmer| first2 = J. Doyne| last3 = Trancik| first3 = Jessika E.| last4 = Gonzales| first4 = John Paul| title = Superexponential Long-Term Trends in Information Technology| journal = Technological Forecasting and Social Change| access-date = 2013-07-09| date = October 2011| url = http://www.santafe.edu/media/workingpapers/10-11-030.pdf| hdl = 1721.1/105411| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20140410202145/http://www.santafe.edu/media/workingpapers/10-11-030.pdf| archive-date = 2014-04-10| url-status = dead| hdl-access = free}}</ref> These dynamics lead to increasingly efficient and dense configurations of Space, Time, Energy, and Matter (STEM efficiency and density, or STEM "compression").<ref name="auto1">{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.actaastro.2011.11.006| issn = 0094-5765| volume = 78| pages = 55–68| last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = The Transcension Hypothesis: Sufficiently advanced civilizations invariably leave our universe, and implications for METI and SETI| journal = Acta Astronautica| url = http://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html| bibcode = 2012AcAau..78...55S| year = 2012| citeseerx = 10.1.1.695.2737| access-date = 2014-01-04| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20130922181839/http://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html| archive-date = 2013-09-22| url-status = dead}}</ref> At the physical limit, this developmental process of accelerating change leads to black hole density organizations, a conclusion also reached by studies of the ultimate physical limits of computation in the universe.<ref name=":4">{{Cite journal| volume = 406| issue = 6799| pages = 1047–1054| last = Lloyd| first = S.| title = Ultimate Physical Limits to Computation| journal = Nature| date = 2000| arxiv = quant-ph/9908043| bibcode = 2000Natur.406.1047L| doi = 10.1038/35023282| pmid = 10984064| s2cid = 75923}}</ref><ref name=":5">{{Cite book| publisher = Penguin Books| last = Kurzweil| first = R.| title = The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology| url = https://archive.org/details/singularityisnea00kurz_214| url-access = limited| date = 2005| page=[https://archive.org/details/singularityisnea00kurz_214/page/n361 362]}}</ref>+ − 这种加速变化的现象可能不局限于人类世，也许这是宇宙普遍的、可预见的发展特征。<ref name="auto" /> 产生加速变化的物理过程，如摩尔定律，实质上是一个正反馈体系。<ref name=":3" /> 这样的动力机制导致了日益高效和密集的对空间、时间、能量和物质(STEM 效率和密度，STEM“压缩”)的配置。<ref name="auto1" /> 在物理世界，这种加速变化的发展过程最终会导致黑洞密度的组织。研究宇宙中物理计算的极限的研究者也得出了同样的结论。<ref name=":4" /><ref name=":5" />+ − Applying this vision to the [[search for extraterrestrial intelligence]] leads to the idea that advanced intelligent life reconfigures itself into a black hole. Such advanced life forms would be interested in inner space, rather than outer space and interstellar expansion.<ref name=":6">{{Cite journal| issn = 0007-084X| volume = 61| issue = 7| pages = 246–254| last = Ćirković| first = Milan M.| title = Against the Empire| journal = Journal of the British Interplanetary Society| date = 2008| arxiv = 0805.1821| bibcode = 2008JBIS...61..246C}}</ref> They would thus in some way transcend reality, not be observable and it would be a solution to [[Fermi paradox|Fermi's paradox]] called the "transcension hypothesis".<ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer International Publishing| isbn = 978-3-319-13235-8 | last = Webb| first = Stephen| title = If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... Where Is Everybody?| location = Cham| series = Science and Fiction| date = 2015| pages = 203–206}}</ref><ref name="auto" /><ref name="auto1" /> Another solution is that the black holes we observe could actually be interpreted as intelligent super-civilizations feeding on stars, or "stellivores".<ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer International Publishing| isbn = 978-3-319-13235-8 | last = Webb| first = Stephen| title = If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... Where Is Everybody?| location = Cham| series = Science and Fiction| date = 2015| pages = 196–200}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.actaastro.2016.06.038| issn = 0094-5765| volume = 128| pages = 251–256| last = Vidal| first = C.| title = Stellivore extraterrestrials? Binary stars as living systems| journal = Acta Astronautica| date = 2016| bibcode = 2016AcAau.128..251V| url = https://zenodo.org/record/164853}}</ref> + − This dynamics of evolution and development is an invitation to study the universe itself as evolving, developing.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.evodevouniverse.com|title=Evo Devo Universe Community|access-date=2018-04-25}}</ref> If the universe is a kind of superorganism, it may possibly tend to reproduce, naturally<ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 9| issue = 1| pages = 173–191| last = Smolin| first = Lee| title = Did the universe evolve?| journal = Classical and Quantum Gravity| date = 1992| bibcode = 1992CQGra...9..173S| doi = 10.1088/0264-9381/9/1/016}}</ref> or artificially, with intelligent life playing a role.<ref>{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1007/s10699-010-9182-y| issn = 1233-1821| volume = 15| issue = 4| pages = 369–373| last = Crane| first = Louis| title = Possible Implications of the Quantum Theory of Gravity: An Introduction to the Meduso-Anthropic Principle| journal = Foundations of Science| date = 2010| arxiv = hep-th/9402104| s2cid = 118422569}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 36| issue = 3| pages = 193–203| last = Harrison| first = E. R.| title = The Natural Selection of Universes Containing Intelligent Life| journal = Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society| date = 1995| bibcode = 1995QJRAS..36..193H}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 5| issue = 3| pages = 34–45| last = Gardner| first = J. N.| title = The Selfish Biocosm: complexity as cosmology| journal = Complexity| date = 2000| doi=10.1002/(sici)1099-0526(200001/02)5:3<34::aid-cplx7>3.0.co;2-8| bibcode = 2000Cmplx...5c..34G}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Government Printing Office, NASA SP-2009-4802| pages = 201–295| editor1 = S. J. Dick |editor2= Mark L. Lupisella | last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = Cosmos and Culture: Cultural Evolution in a Cosmic Context| chapter = Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture.| location = Washington D.C.| date = 2009}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer| isbn = 978-3-319-05061-4| last = Vidal| first = C.| title = The Beginning and the End: The Meaning of Life in a Cosmological Perspective| location = New York| date = 2014| arxiv = 1301.1648| bibcode = 2013PhDT.........2V| doi = 10.1007/978-3-319-05062-1| series = The Frontiers Collection| s2cid = 118419030| url = http://cds.cern.ch/record/1748203| type = Submitted manuscript}}</ref> − 如果我们把这一推想运用到地外文明的搜索努力中，我们就会得到高级智能生命是以黑洞的形式存在的。这样的高级生命形态可能不会过多地关注星外空间和星际扩张，而会更加关注黑洞的内部空间。<ref name=":6" /> 因此，它们将在某种程度上超越我们所理解的现实，而隐匿于我们的观察范围之外。这个理论，被冠名为“超越假说”，很好地解开了费米悖论。除了超越假说，另一个解决方案就是假设我们观察到的黑洞实际上可以理解为是一个吞食恒星的智能超文明，或“星食动物”。这种演化发展动力学鼓励研究者将宇宙自身当做是一个不断演化和发展的超体生命。如果宇宙是某种超体生命，它可能也会自然地或借助人工进行繁殖，而生活于其间的智能生命不可或缺。 − ==Other estimates==+ − Dramatic changes in the rate of economic growth have occurred in the past because of some technological advancement. Based on population growth, the economy doubled every 250,000 years from the [[Paleolithic]] era until the [[Neolithic Revolution]]. The new agricultural economy doubled every 900 years, a remarkable increase. In the current era, beginning with the Industrial Revolution, the world's economic output doubles every fifteen years, sixty times faster than during the agricultural era. If the rise of superhuman intelligence causes a similar revolution, argues Robin Hanson, then one would expect the economy to double at least quarterly and possibly on a weekly basis.<ref name="Hanson">{{Citation |url=http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/robotics-software/economics-of-the-singularity |title=Economics Of The Singularity |author=Robin Hanson |work=IEEE Spectrum Special Report: The Singularity |access-date=2020-04-23 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110811005825/http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/robotics-software/economics-of-the-singularity |archive-date=2011-08-11 |url-status=dead }} & [http://hanson.gmu.edu/longgrow.pdf Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes]</ref> − 在过去，技术的进步带来了巨大的经济腾飞。如果用人口增长这个指标来衡量经济水平的话，旧石器时代到新石器时代，经济每25万年翻一番。新的农业技术的出现，让经济显著增长，每900年就翻一番。在当代，从工业革命开始，世界经济总值每15年就翻一番，比农业文明时代快60倍。罗宾 · 汉森(Robin Hanson)认为，如果超级智能的增长引发一场类似的革命的话，那么经济总量可能每季度甚至每周就能翻一番。<ref name="Hanson" /> − In his 1981 book [[Critical Path (book)|Critical Path]], futurist and inventor [[R. Buckminster Fuller]] estimated that if we took all the knowledge that mankind had accumulated and transmitted by the year One CE as equal to one unit of information, it probably took about 1500 years (or until the sixteenth century) for that amount of knowledge to double. The next doubling of knowledge from two to four 'knowledge units' took only 250 years, until about 1750 CE. By 1900, one hundred and fifty years later, knowledge had doubled again to 8 units. The observed speed at which information doubled was getting faster and faster.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Fuller |first1=Buckminster |title=Critical Path |url=https://archive.org/details/criticalpath00full |url-access=registration |date=1981 |isbn=0312174918}}</ref>+ − In modern times, exponential knowledge progressions therefore change at an ever-increasing rate. Depending on the progression, this tends to lead toward explosive growth at some point. A simple exponential curve that represents this accelerating change phenomenon could be modeled by a [[Exponential function|doubling function]]. This fast rate of knowledge doubling leads up to the basic proposed [[hypothesis]] of the [[technological singularity]]: the rate at which technology progression surpasses human biological evolution. − 在他1981年出版的《关键路径》一书中，未来学家和发明家巴克敏斯特·富勒估计，如果我们把人类在公元一年前积累和传播的所有知识当作等于一个信息单位，那么大约需要1500年(或者直到16世纪) ，这个知识量才会翻倍。接下来的知识从两个翻倍到四个知识单位只用了250年，直到公元1750年左右。到1900年，150年后，知识再次翻倍，达到8个单位。观察到的信息翻倍的速度越来越快。在现代，知识的指数级数因此以不断增长的速度变化。根据进展，这往往导致爆炸性增长在某一点。代表这种加速变化现象的简单指数曲线可以用倍增函数来模拟。这种知识快速翻倍的速度导致了技术奇异点的基本假设: 技术进步超过人类生物进化的速度。+ + − + − Both [[Theodore Modis]] and Jonathan Huebner have argued—each from different perspectives—that the rate of technological innovation has not only ceased to rise, but is actually now declining.<ref name="auto2">{{Cite journal |last=Korotayev |first=Andrey |year=2018 |title=The 21st Century Singularity and its Big History Implications: A re-analysis |journal=Journal of Big History |volume=2 |issue=3 |pages=71–118|doi=10.22339/jbh.v2i3.2320 |doi-access=free }}</ref>+ − − 西奥多 · 莫迪斯和乔纳森 · 休布纳分别从不同的角度分析了技术革新的速度，他们认为技术创新的速度已经开始下降了。<ref name="auto2" /> − − ==Gallery== − Kurzweil created the following graphs to illustrate his beliefs concerning and his justification for his Law of Accelerating Returns. − − Kurzweil created the following graphs to illustrate his beliefs concerning and his justification for his Law of Accelerating Returns. − − Image:PPTExponentialGrowthof Computing.jpg|Computer power grows exponentially − Image:PPTSuperComputersPRINT.jpg|Exponential growth in supercomputer power − − − 库兹韦尔创作了下列图表来说明他对加速返回定律的看法和理由。图片来源: pptexponentialgrowthofcomputing.jpg | 计算机能力呈指数增长图片来源: PPTSuperComputersPRINT.jpg | 指数增长 − <!-- Please keep entries in alphabetical order & add a short description [[WP:SEEALSO]] (SD provided by annotated link)--> − {{div col}} − * {{annotated link|Accelerando|''Accelerando''}} − * {{annotated link|Accelerationism}} − * {{annotated link|Diminishing returns}} − * {{annotated link|Future Shock|''Future Shock''}} − * {{annotated link|Logarithmic timeline}} − * {{annotated link|Novelty theory}} − * {{annotated link|Simulated reality}} − * {{annotated link|Zimmerman's law}} − {{div col end}} − <!-- please keep entries in alphabetical order --> − − − − * − * − * − * − * − * − * − * − − − − ==See also== − + + + + + + + + 第173行：
第107行： − + − + − + − + − *TechCast Article Series, Al Leedahl, Accelerating Change+ − *History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies. Edited by Peter Turchin, Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev, and Victor C. de Munck. Moscow: KomKniga, 2006. + − *Kurzweil, Ray (2001), Essay: The Law of Accelerating Returns+ − * .+ − * Link, Stefan J. Forging Global Fordism: Nazi Germany, Soviet Russia, and the Contest over the Industrial Order (2020) excerpt+ − + − 历史与数学: 复杂社会的历史动力与发展。编辑: Peter Turchin，Leonid Grinin，安德烈·科罗塔耶夫，Victor c. de Munck。莫斯科: KomKniga，2006年。 − * 库兹韦尔，雷(2001) ，论文: 加速回报法则 − * 。= = 进一步阅读 = = = − * Link，Stefan j。锻造全球福特主义: 纳粹德国，苏联，争夺工业秩序(2020年)摘录 − − − − − − − − * [http://tqe.quaker.org/2005/TQE117-EN-RoyalMail.html The Royal Mail Coach: Metaphor for a Changing World] − − * Accelerating Change, TechCast Article Series, Al Leedahl. − * Kurzweil's official site − * The Law of Accelerating Returns by Ray Kurzweil − * Is History Converging? Again? by Juergen Schmidhuber: singularity predictions as a side-effect of memory compression? − * Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends − * The Royal Mail Coach: Metaphor for a Changing World − − = = = 外部链接 = = − * 加速变革，TechCast 文章系列，Al Leedahl。 − * 库兹韦尔的官方网站 − * 加速回报法则作者: 雷 · 库兹韦尔 − * 历史在融合吗？又来了？奇点预测是记忆压缩的副作用吗？ − * 世俗周期与千禧潮流 − * 皇家邮政教练: 变化世界的隐喻 − − {{emerging technologies|topics=yes}} 第224行：
第129行： − − Category:Evolution − Category:Futures studies − Category:Social change − Category:History of technology − Category:Sociological theories − Category:Technological change − Category:Theories of history − − 范畴: 进化范畴: 期货研究范畴: 社会变革范畴: 技术史范畴: 社会学理论范畴: 技术变革范畴: 历史理论 − − <noinclude> − − <small>This page was moved from [[wikipedia:en:Accelerating change]]. Its edit history can be viewed at [[加速变化/edithistory]]</small></noinclude>
无编辑摘要
在未来研究[[wikipedia:Futures_studies|futures studies]]和技术史研究[[wikipedia:History_of_technology|history of technology]] 中，加速变化指随着历史的发展，技术变革的速率越来越快的现象。这种技术加速变革的趋势隐含着，在未来某个时候，社会和文化变革的速度也许赶不上不断加快和不断深化的技术变革速度。
== 早期观察 ==
== 早期观察 ==
1910年在伦敦城市规划会议上，丹尼尔 · 伯纳姆[[wikipedia:Daniel_Burnham|Daniel Burnham]]指出:“进步的基础，不仅仅只是事实或知识在数量上的堆砌，而是这些知识所呈现出的指数级的复杂度，和知识所涉足的领域的几何级数性的扩展，随着时间的推移，越来越多的人会参与到知识的创造过程中。” 在他发言的最后，他再次强调，“正如我一开始所提出来的观点，接下来的50年，会发生巨大的变化，发展的步伐会大大加快。等到我们的儿辈孙辈那个时候，他们对社会对变化的渴求，对技术的可能性的憧憬和要求，一定会令今天在座的我们震惊。”<ref name="Transactions">{{Cite book|url=https://archive.org/details/transactions00town|title=Transactions|first1=England)|last1=Town Planning Conference (1910 : London|last2=Royal Institute of British Architects|date=8 July 2018|publisher=London : Royal Institute of British Architects|via=Internet Archive}}</ref>
1938年，巴克敏斯特·富勒[[wikipedia:Buckminster_Fuller|Buckminster Fuller]]引入了[[wikipedia:Ephemeralization|Ephermeralization]]这个概念来描述化学、医疗保健和其他工业发展领域中“少花钱多办事”的趋势。<ref>[[Buckminster Fuller|R. Buckminster Fuller]], ''[[Nine Chains to the Moon]]'', [[Southern Illinois University Press]] [1938] 1963 pp. 276–79.</ref> 1946年，富勒发表了一张化学元素发现的时间表，展示了人类加速获取的知识的趋势。<ref>[[Buckminster Fuller|R. Buckminster Fuller]], ''[[Synergetics (Fuller)]]'', http://www.rwgrayprojects.com/synergetics/s04/figs/f1903.html</ref>
1958年，[[wikipedia:Stanislaw_Ulam|Stanislaw Ulam]]追忆冯''·'' 诺依曼[./Https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John%20von%20Neumann John von Neumann]的文中，回忆起他们之间的某次交谈：“在这次交谈中，我们围绕着不断加速的技术进步和人类生活方式的变革。从这些现象上来看，人类在这场旷日持久的科技竞赛中似乎正在迫近关键奇点，在这之后，我们熟悉的人类活动也许就要终结了。<ref name="mathematical">Ulam, Stanislaw (May 1958). "[https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-5-JeCa2Z7hbWcxTGsyU09HSTg/edit?pli=1 Tribute to John von Neumann]". 64, nr 3, part 2. Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society: 5.
</ref>
==''莫拉维克的思想之子 Minds Children'' ==
计算机科学家和未来学家汉斯 · 莫拉维克在他1974-1979年发表的一系列文章中，以及1988年出版的《思想的孩子》一书中，将摩尔定律做了推广延伸。并据此预测了人工生命的未来发展趋势。严格来说，摩尔定律是特指半导体集成电路的复杂程度随着时间的推移，呈现出指数增长的规律。莫拉维克把摩尔定律的使用范围推广到半导体集成电路之外的技术领域，包括集成电路出现之前的一些技术，以及未来可能出现的新的技术形式。<ref>{{cite web| url=http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/general.articles/1993/Robot93.html| title= The Age of Robots|date=June 1993| first=Hans| last=Moravec| access-date=2006-06-23| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20060615055406/http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/general.articles/1993/Robot93.html| archive-date= 15 June 2006 | url-status= live}}</ref> 他绘制了一个时间技术演化表，从表中反映出的规律来看，他认为到2030-2040年开始，机器人将进化成一系列新的人工物种。<ref>{{cite web| url=http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/robot.papers/2004/Predictions.html| title=Robot Predictions Evolution| first=Hans| last=Moravec|date=April 2004| access-date=2006-06-23| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20060616045535/http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/robot.papers/2004/Predictions.html| archive-date= 16 June 2006 | url-status= live}}</ref>莫拉维克在1998年出版的《机器人: 从纯粹的机器到超验的思维》一书中，进一步分析了机器智能的演化的含义，发现了动物大脑的算力在演化时间轴上的增长速度与摩尔定律相似。据此，他认为这些趋势预示着与Vinge预测的智能爆炸相似的超级智能-心灵之火”即将到来。
==Moravec's ''Mind Children (莫拉维克的思想之子）''==
==''詹姆斯 · 伯克的关联'' James Burke's ''Connections'' ==
[[wikipedia:James_Burke_(science_historian)|詹姆斯 · 伯克]]的《关联》在他的电视连续剧《关联》[[wikipedia:Connections_(British_documentary)|Connections]] (1978)以及1994，1997版的续集中探讨了非线性的，无目的“另类变革观”(该剧的副标题) 的历史观。伯克认为，在现代，任何特定部分的发展，都不能孤立对待，而应当把现代世界当作是一个由相互交织的事件网络组成的整体。这个事件网络，由一个个相对孤立的事件组成，每个事件是当事人或者团体为了实现他们各自的目的（比如，利益驱使，好奇心驱使，宗教原因）而付出的行动。个体或者团体，在决策或行动时，是完全不考虑他这些行为在更大的范围内会造成什么影响。而恰恰是这些孤立的事件，在现实中铺展开来时，其影响波及到其它事件，而改变了历史，创造了新的可能。这也正是伯克在连续剧《关联》及其续集中所探讨的核心问题。
伯克还探讨了伴随非线性历史观这个主要论点而来的三个推论。首先，如果历史是由一个个个体所驱动，而这些个体都是依据当时所知的不全面的信息而行动，而不是为了实现某个目的。那么，我们只能猜测而不能预测未来技术进步的进程。因此，通过了解伯克在剧中展现的去过事件之间风云交织的关系，可以推断今天发生的这些事情可能会在将来带来多么让人不可思议的后果。
伯克还探讨了伴随非线性历史观这个主要论点而来的三个推论。首先，如果历史是由一个个个体所驱动，而这些个体都是依据当时所知的不全面的信息而行动，而不是为了实现某个目的。那么，我们只能猜测而不能预测未来技术进步的进程。因此，通过了解伯克在剧中展现的去过事件之间风云交织的关系，可以推断今天发生的这些事情可能会在将来带来多么让人不可思议的后果。
而第二个和第三个推论，分别在导言部分和结尾部分重点讨论，主要展现的是伴随这样一个高度互联的历史而来的各种弊端。如果历史的演进确实表明，过去的事件和创新之间的是一个协同关系。那么，随着历史的演进，这些事件和创新的数量也会随之增加。因此，不断增加的事件之间的关联也会增加。这不仅会带来源源不断的创新，而且会导致创新的速度加快。伯克在这里提出了一个问题：如果创新的速度太快，创新给人们的生活带来太大的变化，以至于让绝大多数的普通人无力应对。到那时候，我们又该如何理解个人权力、自由和隐私呢？
而第二个和第三个推论，分别在导言部分和结尾部分重点讨论，主要展现的是伴随这样一个高度互联的历史而来的各种弊端。如果历史的演进确实表明，过去的事件和创新之间的是一个协同关系。那么，随着历史的演进，这些事件和创新的数量也会随之增加。因此，不断增加的事件之间的关联也会增加。这不仅会带来源源不断的创新，而且会导致创新的速度加快。伯克在这里提出了一个问题：如果创新的速度太快，创新给人们的生活带来太大的变化，以至于让绝大多数的普通人无力应对。到那时候，我们又该如何理解个人权力、自由和隐私呢？
== Gerald Hawkins' ''Mindsteps （霍金斯的认知阶梯）'' ==
==''霍金斯的认知阶梯'' Gerald Hawkins' ''Mindsteps'' ==
杰拉德·霍金斯 [[wikipedia:Gerald_Hawkins|Gerald Hawkins]] 在他的著作《通向宇宙奥秘的认知阶梯》(Mindsteps to the Cosmos，HarperCollins，1983年8月)中阐明了他的“认知阶梯”Mindsteps 概念，即思维范式或世界观发生巨大的且不可逆转的变化。他认为人类历史上曾经历了五次“认知阶梯”式跨越，每一次认知跨越都伴随着技术的进步：图像操控能力、文字书写、数学、印刷术、望远镜、火箭、无线电、电视、计算机... ... “每一次进步都让人类整个群体的认知更接近客观存在的现实，帮助人们更好地理解人与宇宙之间的关系。”他指出: “这样的认知阶梯式的跨越所需要的时间越来越短，人们很难注意不到它正在加快。”霍金斯发明了一个经验性的方程来量化“认知阶梯”之间的时间间隔。由这个方程可以推算出人类跨越下一个认知阶梯，也就是人类历史上的第五个认知阶梯，将会发生在2021年。紧随其后的认知第六次和第七次将会发生在2045年和2051年。到2053年，人类集体的认知的能力达到极限。
{{quote|The mindsteps... appear to have certain things in common - a new and unfolding human perspective, related inventions in the area of memes and communications, and a long formulative waiting period before the next mindstep comes along. None of the mindsteps can be said to have been truly anticipated, and most were resisted at the early stages. In looking to the future we may equally be caught unawares. We may have to grapple with the presently inconceivable, with mind-stretching discoveries and concepts.}}
{{quote|The mindsteps... appear to have certain things in common - a new and unfolding human perspective, related inventions in the area of memes and communications, and a long formulative waiting period before the next mindstep comes along. None of the mindsteps can be said to have been truly anticipated, and most were resisted at the early stages. In looking to the future we may equally be caught unawares. We may have to grapple with the presently inconceivable, with mind-stretching discoveries and concepts.}}
==文奇 指数级加速 Vinge's exponentially accelerating change==
数学家弗诺·文奇 [[wikipedia:Vernor_Vinge|Vernor Vinge]] 在科幻小说《实时放逐》M[[wikipedia:Marooned_in_Realtime|arooned in Realtime]] (1986)中讲述了一个技术以指数级的速度突飞猛进，导致越来越多越来越复杂的新技术越来越快的速度出现在人们的生活中，直到技术的发展超越了人类理解能力的极限。随后，他在斩获雨果奖的小说《深渊之火》[[wikipedia:A_Fire_Upon_the_Deep|A Fire Upon Deep]] (1992)中，通过丰富的想象，揭开了一个[[wikipedia:Superintelligence|超级智能]]文明访问正值科技暴涨，无所不能的人类文明。他在1993年发表的《技术奇点》[[wikipedia:Technological_singularity|Technological Singularity]] 的文章中也提纲挈领地概述了这个故事。
==库兹韦尔加速回报定律 Kurzweil's The Law of Accelerating Returns==
1999年，库兹韦尔 [[wikipedia:Ray_Kurzweil|Ray Kurzweil]] 出版了《精神机器时代》[[wikipedia:The_Age_of_Spiritual_Machines|The Age of Spiritual Machines]]，在书中他提出了“加速回报法则”The Law of Accelerating Returns。这个法则描述了各种具有进化能力的系统(包括但不限于技术增长)，其发展的速度呈现出指数增长的规律。<ref name=":0">Ray Kurzweil, ''The Age of Spiritual Machines'', Viking, 1999, [https://books.google.com/books?id=ldAGcyh0bkUC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA630#v=onepage&q&f=false p. 30] and [https://books.google.com/books?id=ldAGcyh0bkUC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA632#v=onepage&q&f=false p. 32]</ref> 2001年，库兹韦尔发表了题为《加速回报法则》的论文，专门讨论了这个问题。<ref name=":1">[http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns ''The Law of Accelerating Returns'']. [[Ray Kurzweil]], March 7, 2001.</ref> 在这篇论文中，库兹韦尔采用了和莫拉维克一样的方法，把摩尔定律扩展到更加普遍性的技术发展行业。库兹韦尔认为，每当一项技术接近某种障碍时，就会有一项新技术发明问世，跨越技术障碍。他援引了大量的例子来说明他的论点。他预言这种范式转移的情况已经非常普遍了，未来会越来越明显，到某一个节点“技术变革异常迅速而深刻，人类历史将会由此断裂”。他认为，加速回报定律意味着技术奇点将在2045年左右出现。
库兹韦尔的加速回报定律流行较广，改变了人们对摩尔定律的认识。公众误以为摩尔定律是关于各种形式的技术进展的预测规律。但摩尔定律只是对半导体集成电路的发展规律做了预测。但许多未来学家仍然用“摩尔定律”来描述莫拉维克、库兹韦尔和其他人提出的想法。
库兹韦尔的加速回报定律流行较广，改变了人们对摩尔定律的认识。公众误以为摩尔定律是关于各种形式的技术进展的预测规律。但摩尔定律只是对半导体集成电路的发展规律做了预测。但许多未来学家仍然用“摩尔定律”来描述莫拉维克、库兹韦尔和其他人提出的想法。
库兹韦尔说，自进化历史开端开始以来，新的复杂生命的形态就是指数级的速度在进化，演化出全新的生命形态所需要的时间越来越短。以人类为例，我们有改造环境的能力，能够有目的性地高效设计。这个新出现的生命特征，取代了相对盲目的通过进化机制来进行效率筛选。推而广之，人类技术进步的速度也在指数级增长，随着人们发明的高效的工具的增多，我们也发现了如何更有效地学习的工具：语言，数字，书写，哲学，科学方法，观察工具，计数装置，机械计算器，计算机等等。这些记录信息的工具的出现时间，越往后越短。在过去的60年里，工业化国家的生活已经发生了翻天覆地的变化，20世纪上半叶生活只存在记忆中了。在21世纪，技术进步会继续加速发展，直到达到巅峰的奇点。这些观点，库兹韦尔在《精神机器时代》和《奇点迫近》[[wikipedia:The_Singularity_Is_Near|The Singularity is Near]] 有详细阐述。
==Limits of accelerating change （加速变化的极限）==
==加速变化的极限 Limits of accelerating change ==
如果我们用科学的方法去分析自然科学中存在的一个过程，我们不难发现，那些最初阶段表现出指数增长这一特性的过程，最后都会进入饱和的状态。也就是说，如果我们观察到一个事物在一段时间以指数级的速度增长，这并不意味着这一过程会无休止地继续下去。相反，在许多情况下，这意味着提前达到饱和。从我们在自然科学中发现的规律来看，事物在一段时间的加速增长后(在物理过程中，这个阶段往往都是短暂的)，将会减缓甚至完全停滞？尽管在可预见的将来，科学和技术的加速进步可能会减缓，终结，但人类不会停止追求进步的脚步，因此社会社会变革也会持续以目前所达到的速度继续向前。<ref name=":2">[https://philosophyjournal.spbu.ru/article/view/3182/2943 Shestakova I.' To the Question of the Limits of Progress: Is a Singularity Possible?.]</ref>
这种加速变化的现象可能不局限于人类世，也许这是宇宙普遍的、可预见的发展特征。<ref name="auto">{{Cite book| publisher = Government Printing Office, NASA SP-2009-4802| pages = 201–295| editor1 = S. J. Dick| editor2 = Mark L. Lupisella| last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = Cosmos and Culture: Cultural Evolution in a Cosmic Context| chapter = Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture.| location = Washington D.C.| date = 2009| chapter-url = http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartEvoDevoUniv2008.pdf| access-date = 2017-03-15| archive-date = 2017-01-24| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20170124023933/http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartEvoDevoUniv2008.pdf| url-status = dead}}</ref> 产生加速变化的物理过程，如摩尔定律，实质上是一个正反馈体系。<ref name=":3">{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.07.006| issn = 0040-1625| volume = 78| issue = 8| pages = 1356–1364| last1 = Nagy| first1 = Béla| last2 = Farmer| first2 = J. Doyne| last3 = Trancik| first3 = Jessika E.| last4 = Gonzales| first4 = John Paul| title = Superexponential Long-Term Trends in Information Technology| journal = Technological Forecasting and Social Change| access-date = 2013-07-09| date = October 2011| url = http://www.santafe.edu/media/workingpapers/10-11-030.pdf| hdl = 1721.1/105411| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20140410202145/http://www.santafe.edu/media/workingpapers/10-11-030.pdf| archive-date = 2014-04-10| url-status = dead| hdl-access = free}}</ref> 这样的动力机制导致了日益高效和密集的对空间、时间、能量和物质(STEM 效率和密度，STEM“压缩”)的配置。<ref name="auto1">{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.actaastro.2011.11.006| issn = 0094-5765| volume = 78| pages = 55–68| last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = The Transcension Hypothesis: Sufficiently advanced civilizations invariably leave our universe, and implications for METI and SETI| journal = Acta Astronautica| url = http://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html| bibcode = 2012AcAau..78...55S| year = 2012| citeseerx = 10.1.1.695.2737| access-date = 2014-01-04| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20130922181839/http://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html| archive-date = 2013-09-22| url-status = dead}}</ref> 在物理世界，这种加速变化的发展过程最终会导致黑洞密度的组织。研究宇宙中物理计算的极限的研究者也得出了同样的结论。<ref name=":4">{{Cite journal| volume = 406| issue = 6799| pages = 1047–1054| last = Lloyd| first = S.| title = Ultimate Physical Limits to Computation| journal = Nature| date = 2000| arxiv = quant-ph/9908043| bibcode = 2000Natur.406.1047L| doi = 10.1038/35023282| pmid = 10984064| s2cid = 75923}}</ref><ref name=":5">{{Cite book| publisher = Penguin Books| last = Kurzweil| first = R.| title = The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology| url = https://archive.org/details/singularityisnea00kurz_214| url-access = limited| date = 2005| page=[https://archive.org/details/singularityisnea00kurz_214/page/n361 362]}}</ref>
如果我们把这一推想运用到地外文明的搜索努力中，我们就会得到高级智能生命是以黑洞的形式存在的。这样的高级生命形态可能不会过多地关注星外空间和星际扩张，而会更加关注黑洞的内部空间。<ref name=":6">{{Cite journal| issn = 0007-084X| volume = 61| issue = 7| pages = 246–254| last = Ćirković| first = Milan M.| title = Against the Empire| journal = Journal of the British Interplanetary Society| date = 2008| arxiv = 0805.1821| bibcode = 2008JBIS...61..246C}}</ref> 因此，它们将在某种程度上超越我们所理解的现实，而隐匿于我们的观察范围之外。这个理论，被冠名为“超越假说”<ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer International Publishing| isbn = 978-3-319-13235-8 | last = Webb| first = Stephen| title = If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... Where Is Everybody?| location = Cham| series = Science and Fiction| date = 2015| pages = 203–206}}</ref><ref name="auto" /><ref name="auto1" />，很好地解开了费米悖论。除了超越假说，另一个解决方案就是假设我们观察到的黑洞实际上可以理解为是一个吞食恒星的智能超文明，或“星食动物”<ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer International Publishing| isbn = 978-3-319-13235-8 | last = Webb| first = Stephen| title = If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... Where Is Everybody?| location = Cham| series = Science and Fiction| date = 2015| pages = 196–200}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.actaastro.2016.06.038| issn = 0094-5765| volume = 128| pages = 251–256| last = Vidal| first = C.| title = Stellivore extraterrestrials? Binary stars as living systems| journal = Acta Astronautica| date = 2016| bibcode = 2016AcAau.128..251V| url = https://zenodo.org/record/164853}}</ref>。这种演化发展动力学鼓励研究者将宇宙自身当做是一个不断演化和发展的超体生命<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.evodevouniverse.com|title=Evo Devo Universe Community|access-date=2018-04-25}}</ref> 。如果宇宙是某种超体生命，它可能也会以自然方式<ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 9| issue = 1| pages = 173–191| last = Smolin| first = Lee| title = Did the universe evolve?| journal = Classical and Quantum Gravity| date = 1992| bibcode = 1992CQGra...9..173S| doi = 10.1088/0264-9381/9/1/016}}</ref>或借助人工进行繁殖，而生活于其间的智能生命不可或缺。<ref>{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1007/s10699-010-9182-y| issn = 1233-1821| volume = 15| issue = 4| pages = 369–373| last = Crane| first = Louis| title = Possible Implications of the Quantum Theory of Gravity: An Introduction to the Meduso-Anthropic Principle| journal = Foundations of Science| date = 2010| arxiv = hep-th/9402104| s2cid = 118422569}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 36| issue = 3| pages = 193–203| last = Harrison| first = E. R.| title = The Natural Selection of Universes Containing Intelligent Life| journal = Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society| date = 1995| bibcode = 1995QJRAS..36..193H}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 5| issue = 3| pages = 34–45| last = Gardner| first = J. N.| title = The Selfish Biocosm: complexity as cosmology| journal = Complexity| date = 2000| doi=10.1002/(sici)1099-0526(200001/02)5:3<34::aid-cplx7>3.0.co;2-8| bibcode = 2000Cmplx...5c..34G}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Government Printing Office, NASA SP-2009-4802| pages = 201–295| editor1 = S. J. Dick |editor2= Mark L. Lupisella | last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = Cosmos and Culture: Cultural Evolution in a Cosmic Context| chapter = Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture.| location = Washington D.C.| date = 2009}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer| isbn = 978-3-319-05061-4| last = Vidal| first = C.| title = The Beginning and the End: The Meaning of Life in a Cosmological Perspective| location = New York| date = 2014| arxiv = 1301.1648| bibcode = 2013PhDT.........2V| doi = 10.1007/978-3-319-05062-1| series = The Frontiers Collection| s2cid = 118419030| url = http://cds.cern.ch/record/1748203| type = Submitted manuscript}}</ref>
==其它的预测模型==
在过去，技术的进步带来了巨大的经济腾飞。如果用人口增长这个指标来衡量经济水平的话，旧石器时代到新石器时代，经济每25万年翻一番。新的农业技术的出现，让经济显著增长，每900年就翻一番。在当代，从工业革命开始，世界经济总值每15年就翻一番，比农业文明时代快60倍。罗宾 · 汉森(Robin Hanson)认为，如果超级智能的增长引发一场类似的革命的话，那么经济总量可能每季度甚至每周就能翻一番。<ref name="Hanson">{{Citation |url=http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/robotics-software/economics-of-the-singularity |title=Economics Of The Singularity |author=Robin Hanson |work=IEEE Spectrum Special Report: The Singularity |access-date=2020-04-23 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110811005825/http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/robotics-software/economics-of-the-singularity |archive-date=2011-08-11 |url-status=dead }} & [http://hanson.gmu.edu/longgrow.pdf Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes]</ref>
未来学家和发明家巴克敏斯特·富勒在1981年发表的《关键路径》书中，提出了一个通过信息增量来估算技术发展速度的模型。如果我们把人类在公元元年前积累和流通的的所有知识当作等于一个信息单位，那么大约1500年，也就是直到16世纪，这个知识量才增长了一倍。到1750年，也就是时隔250年后，知识从两个信息单位翻倍到了四个单位。而那之后的150年，知识再度翻倍，达到8个单位。可以看到，信息翻倍的速度越来越快。<ref>{{cite book |last1=Fuller |first1=Buckminster |title=Critical Path |url=https://archive.org/details/criticalpath00full |url-access=registration |date=1981 |isbn=0312174918}}</ref>而在现代，知识的增长更是到了前所未有的速度。这样一种发展趋势往往会在某个时刻达到爆炸性增长。这种加速变化的现象可以通过简单的倍增指数曲线来模拟。正是知识快速翻倍的现象让人们认为推测可能存在技术奇点: 技术进步的速度超过人类生物进化的速度。
==加速变化理论的批评 Criticisms==
西奥多 · 莫迪斯[[wikipedia:Theodore_Modis|Theodore Modis]]和乔纳森 · 休布纳 Jonathan Huebner分别从不同的角度分析了技术革新的速度，他们认为技术创新的速度已经开始下降了。<ref name="auto2">{{Cite journal |last=Korotayev |first=Andrey |year=2018 |title=The 21st Century Singularity and its Big History Implications: A re-analysis |journal=Journal of Big History |volume=2 |issue=3 |pages=71–118|doi=10.22339/jbh.v2i3.2320 |doi-access=free }}</ref>
==Criticisms==
==图库 Gallery==
库兹韦尔画了下面两张图来阐述加速回报定律的真义。
<gallery>
<gallery>
Image:PPTExponentialGrowthof Computing.jpg|Computer power grows exponentially
Image:PPTExponentialGrowthof Computing.jpg|Computer power grows exponentially
Image:PPTSuperComputersPRINT.jpg|Exponential growth in [[supercomputer]] power
Image:PPTSuperComputersPRINT.jpg|Exponential growth in [[supercomputer]] power
</gallery>
</gallery>
==See also==
==See also==
* ''[[wikipedia:Accelerando|Accelerando]]''
* [[wikipedia:Accelerationism|Accelerationism]] – Range of ideas that capitalism should be intensified to create radical social change
* [[wikipedia:Diminishing_returns|Diminishing returns]] – Economic Theory
* ''[[wikipedia:Future_Shock|Future Shock]]'' – Book by Alvin Toffler
* [[wikipedia:Logarithmic_timeline|Logarithmic timeline]]
* [[wikipedia:Terence_McKenna#Novelty_theory_and_Timewave_Zero|Novelty theory]]
* [[wikipedia:Simulated_reality|Simulated reality]] – Hypothesis that reality could be simulated
* [[wikipedia:Phil_Zimmermann#Zimmermann's_Law|Zimmerman's law]]
*
*
{{Reflist|30em}}
{{Reflist|30em}}
==References==
==参考书目 References==
*TechCast Article Series, Al Leedahl, [https://web.archive.org/web/20110304064527/http://www.techcast.org/Upload/PDFs/633427424769769211_TCAlLeedahl-AcceleratingChange.pdf Accelerating Change]
*TechCast Article Series, Al Leedahl, [https://web.archive.org/web/20110304064527/http://www.techcast.org/Upload/PDFs/633427424769769211_TCAlLeedahl-AcceleratingChange.pdf Accelerating Change]
*[http://edurss.ru/cgi-bin/db.pl?cp=&page=Book&id=53185&lang=en&blang=en&list=Found History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies]. Edited by [[Peter Turchin]], [[Leonid Grinin]], [[Andrey Korotayev]], and Victor C. de Munck. Moscow: KomKniga, 2006. {{ISBN|5-484-01002-0}}
*[http://edurss.ru/cgi-bin/db.pl?cp=&page=Book&id=53185&lang=en&blang=en&list=Found History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies]. Edited by [[Peter Turchin]], [[Leonid Grinin]], [[Andrey Korotayev]], and Victor C. de Munck. Moscow: KomKniga, 2006.
*Kurzweil, Ray (2001), [https://web.archive.org/web/20070517200550/http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=%2Farticles%2Fart0134.html Essay: The Law of Accelerating Returns]
*Kurzweil, Ray (2001), [https://web.archive.org/web/20070517200550/http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=%2Farticles%2Fart0134.html Essay: The Law of Accelerating Returns]
* {{cite book |author-link=Francis Heylighen |last=Heylighen |first=Francis |date=2007 |chapter=Accelerating socio-technological evolution: from ephemeralization and stigmergy to the Global Brain |chapter-url=http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/Papers/AcceleratingEvolution.pdf |editor1-link=George Modelski |editor1-first=George |editor1-last=Modelski |editor2-first=Tessaleno |editor2-last=Devezas |editor3-first=William |editor3-last=Thompson |title=Globalization as evolutionary process: Modeling global change |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=JHKTAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA284 |place=London | publisher=Routledge | series=Rethinking Globalizations |isbn=978-0-415-77361-4 |pages=284–335}} {{ISBN|978-1-135-97764-1}}.
* {{cite book |author-link=Francis Heylighen |last=Heylighen |first=Francis |date=2007 |chapter=Accelerating socio-technological evolution: from ephemeralization and stigmergy to the Global Brain |chapter-url=http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/Papers/AcceleratingEvolution.pdf |editor1-link=George Modelski |editor1-first=George |editor1-last=Modelski |editor2-first=Tessaleno |editor2-last=Devezas |editor3-first=William |editor3-last=Thompson |title=Globalization as evolutionary process: Modeling global change |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=JHKTAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA284 |place=London | publisher=Routledge | series=Rethinking Globalizations |isbn=978-0-415-77361-4 |pages=284–335}}
==Further reading==
==扩展阅读 Further reading==
* Link, Stefan J. ''Forging Global Fordism: Nazi Germany, Soviet Russia, and the Contest over the Industrial Order'' (2020) [https://www.amazon.com/Forging-Global-Fordism-Germany-Industrial/dp/0691177546/ excerpt]
* Link, Stefan J. ''Forging Global Fordism: Nazi Germany, Soviet Russia, and the Contest over the Industrial Order'' (2020) [https://www.amazon.com/Forging-Global-Fordism-Germany-Industrial/dp/0691177546/ excerpt]
==外部链接 External links==
* 加速变革 [https://web.archive.org/web/20110304064527/http://www.techcast.org/Upload/PDFs/633427424769769211_TCAlLeedahl-AcceleratingChange.pdf Accelerating Change], TechCast Article Series, Al Leedahl.
* 库兹韦尔的官方网站 [http://www.kurzweilai.net/ Kurzweil's official site]
* 加速回报法则 [https://web.archive.org/web/20100619033859/http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1 The Law of Accelerating Returns] by [[Ray Kurzweil]]
* 历史在融合吗？[http://www.idsia.ch/~juergen/history.html Is History Converging? Again?] by [[Juergen Schmidhuber]]: singularity predictions as a side-effect of memory compression?
* 俗务周期与千禧潮流 [http://repositories.cdlib.org/imbs/socdyn/wp/wp6/ Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends]
==External links==
* [https://web.archive.org/web/20110304064527/http://www.techcast.org/Upload/PDFs/633427424769769211_TCAlLeedahl-AcceleratingChange.pdf Accelerating Change], TechCast Article Series, Al Leedahl.
* [http://www.kurzweilai.net/ Kurzweil's official site]
* [https://web.archive.org/web/20100619033859/http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1 The Law of Accelerating Returns] by [[Ray Kurzweil]]
* [http://www.idsia.ch/~juergen/history.html Is History Converging? Again?] by [[Juergen Schmidhuber]]: singularity predictions as a side-effect of memory compression?
* [http://repositories.cdlib.org/imbs/socdyn/wp/wp6/ Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends]
[[Category:Evolution]]
[[Category:Evolution]]
[[Category:Technological change]]
[[Category:Technological change]]
[[Category:Theories of history]]
[[Category:Theories of history]]
[[Category:待整理页面]]
[[Category:待整理页面]]