更改

这种加速变化的现象可能不局限于人类世，也许这是宇宙普遍的、可预见的发展特征。<ref name="auto">{{Cite book| publisher = Government Printing Office, NASA SP-2009-4802| pages = 201–295| editor1 = S. J. Dick| editor2 = Mark L. Lupisella| last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = Cosmos and Culture: Cultural Evolution in a Cosmic Context| chapter = Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture.| location = Washington D.C.| date = 2009| chapter-url = http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartEvoDevoUniv2008.pdf| access-date = 2017-03-15| archive-date = 2017-01-24| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20170124023933/http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartEvoDevoUniv2008.pdf| url-status = dead}}</ref> 产生加速变化的物理过程，如摩尔定律，实质上是一个正反馈体系。<ref name=":3">{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.07.006| issn = 0040-1625| volume = 78| issue = 8| pages = 1356–1364| last1 = Nagy| first1 = Béla| last2 = Farmer| first2 = J. Doyne| last3 = Trancik| first3 = Jessika E.| last4 = Gonzales| first4 = John Paul| title = Superexponential Long-Term Trends in Information Technology| journal = Technological Forecasting and Social Change| access-date = 2013-07-09| date = October 2011| url = http://www.santafe.edu/media/workingpapers/10-11-030.pdf| hdl = 1721.1/105411| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20140410202145/http://www.santafe.edu/media/workingpapers/10-11-030.pdf| archive-date = 2014-04-10| url-status = dead| hdl-access = free}}</ref> 这样的动力机制导致了日益高效和密集的对空间、时间、能量和物质(STEM 效率和密度，STEM“压缩”)的配置。<ref name="auto1">{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.actaastro.2011.11.006| issn = 0094-5765| volume = 78| pages = 55–68| last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = The Transcension Hypothesis: Sufficiently advanced civilizations invariably leave our universe, and implications for METI and SETI| journal = Acta Astronautica| url = http://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html| bibcode = 2012AcAau..78...55S| year = 2012| citeseerx = 10.1.1.695.2737| access-date = 2014-01-04| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20130922181839/http://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html| archive-date = 2013-09-22| url-status = dead}}</ref> 在物理世界，这种加速变化的发展过程最终会导致黑洞密度的组织。研究宇宙中物理计算的极限的研究者也得出了同样的结论。<ref name=":4">{{Cite journal| volume = 406| issue = 6799| pages = 1047–1054| last = Lloyd| first = S.| title = Ultimate Physical Limits to Computation| journal = Nature| date = 2000| arxiv = quant-ph/9908043| bibcode = 2000Natur.406.1047L| doi = 10.1038/35023282| pmid = 10984064| s2cid = 75923}}</ref><ref name=":5">{{Cite book| publisher = Penguin Books| last = Kurzweil| first = R.| title = The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology| url = https://archive.org/details/singularityisnea00kurz_214| url-access = limited| date = 2005| page=[https://archive.org/details/singularityisnea00kurz_214/page/n361 362]}}</ref>

这种加速变化的现象可能不局限于人类世，也许这是宇宙普遍的、可预见的发展特征。<ref name="auto">{{Cite book| publisher = Government Printing Office, NASA SP-2009-4802| pages = 201–295| editor1 = S. J. Dick| editor2 = Mark L. Lupisella| last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = Cosmos and Culture: Cultural Evolution in a Cosmic Context| chapter = Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture.| location = Washington D.C.| date = 2009| chapter-url = http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartEvoDevoUniv2008.pdf| access-date = 2017-03-15| archive-date = 2017-01-24| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20170124023933/http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartEvoDevoUniv2008.pdf| url-status = dead}}</ref> 产生加速变化的物理过程，如摩尔定律，实质上是一个正反馈体系。<ref name=":3">{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.07.006| issn = 0040-1625| volume = 78| issue = 8| pages = 1356–1364| last1 = Nagy| first1 = Béla| last2 = Farmer| first2 = J. Doyne| last3 = Trancik| first3 = Jessika E.| last4 = Gonzales| first4 = John Paul| title = Superexponential Long-Term Trends in Information Technology| journal = Technological Forecasting and Social Change| access-date = 2013-07-09| date = October 2011| url = http://www.santafe.edu/media/workingpapers/10-11-030.pdf| hdl = 1721.1/105411| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20140410202145/http://www.santafe.edu/media/workingpapers/10-11-030.pdf| archive-date = 2014-04-10| url-status = dead| hdl-access = free}}</ref> 这样的动力机制导致了日益高效和密集的对空间、时间、能量和物质(STEM 效率和密度，STEM“压缩”)的配置。<ref name="auto1">{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.actaastro.2011.11.006| issn = 0094-5765| volume = 78| pages = 55–68| last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = The Transcension Hypothesis: Sufficiently advanced civilizations invariably leave our universe, and implications for METI and SETI| journal = Acta Astronautica| url = http://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html| bibcode = 2012AcAau..78...55S| year = 2012| citeseerx = 10.1.1.695.2737| access-date = 2014-01-04| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20130922181839/http://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html| archive-date = 2013-09-22| url-status = dead}}</ref> 在物理世界，这种加速变化的发展过程最终会导致黑洞密度的组织。研究宇宙中物理计算的极限的研究者也得出了同样的结论。<ref name=":4">{{Cite journal| volume = 406| issue = 6799| pages = 1047–1054| last = Lloyd| first = S.| title = Ultimate Physical Limits to Computation| journal = Nature| date = 2000| arxiv = quant-ph/9908043| bibcode = 2000Natur.406.1047L| doi = 10.1038/35023282| pmid = 10984064}}</ref><ref name=":5">{{Cite book| publisher = Penguin Books| last = Kurzweil| first = R.| title = The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology| url = https://archive.org/details/singularityisnea00kurz_214| url-access = limited| date = 2005| page=[https://archive.org/details/singularityisnea00kurz_214/page/n361 362]}}</ref>

如果我们把这一推想运用到地外文明的搜索努力中，我们就会得到高级智能生命是以黑洞的形式存在的。这样的高级生命形态可能不会过多地关注星外空间和星际扩张，而会更加关注黑洞的内部空间。<ref name=":6">{{Cite journal| issn = 0007-084X| volume = 61| issue = 7| pages = 246–254| last = Ćirković| first = Milan M.| title = Against the Empire| journal = Journal of the British Interplanetary Society| date = 2008| arxiv = 0805.1821| bibcode = 2008JBIS...61..246C}}</ref> 因此，它们将在某种程度上超越我们所理解的现实，而隐匿于我们的观察范围之外。这个理论，被冠名为“超越假说”<ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer International Publishing| isbn = 978-3-319-13235-8 | last = Webb| first = Stephen| title = If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... Where Is Everybody?| location = Cham| series = Science and Fiction| date = 2015| pages = 203–206}}</ref><ref name="auto" /><ref name="auto1" />，很好地解开了费米悖论。除了超越假说，另一个解决方案就是假设我们观察到的黑洞实际上可以理解为是一个吞食恒星的智能超文明，或“星食动物”<ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer International Publishing| isbn = 978-3-319-13235-8 | last = Webb| first = Stephen| title = If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... Where Is Everybody?| location = Cham| series = Science and Fiction| date = 2015| pages = 196–200}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.actaastro.2016.06.038| issn = 0094-5765| volume = 128| pages = 251–256| last = Vidal| first = C.| title = Stellivore extraterrestrials? Binary stars as living systems| journal = Acta Astronautica| date = 2016| bibcode = 2016AcAau.128..251V| url = https://zenodo.org/record/164853}}</ref>。这种演化发展动力学鼓励研究者将宇宙自身当做是一个不断演化和发展的超体生命<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.evodevouniverse.com|title=Evo Devo Universe Community|access-date=2018-04-25}}</ref> 。如果宇宙是某种超体生命，它可能也会以自然方式<ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 9| issue = 1| pages = 173–191| last = Smolin| first = Lee| title = Did the universe evolve?| journal = Classical and Quantum Gravity| date = 1992| bibcode = 1992CQGra...9..173S| doi = 10.1088/0264-9381/9/1/016}}</ref>或借助人工进行繁殖，而生活于其间的智能生命不可或缺。<ref>{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1007/s10699-010-9182-y| issn = 1233-1821| volume = 15| issue = 4| pages = 369–373| last = Crane| first = Louis| title = Possible Implications of the Quantum Theory of Gravity: An Introduction to the Meduso-Anthropic Principle| journal = Foundations of Science| date = 2010| arxiv = hep-th/9402104| s2cid = 118422569}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 36| issue = 3| pages = 193–203| last = Harrison| first = E. R.| title = The Natural Selection of Universes Containing Intelligent Life| journal = Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society| date = 1995| bibcode = 1995QJRAS..36..193H}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 5| issue = 3| pages = 34–45| last = Gardner| first = J. N.| title = The Selfish Biocosm: complexity as cosmology| journal = Complexity| date = 2000| doi=10.1002/(sici)1099-0526(200001/02)5:3<34::aid-cplx7>3.0.co;2-8| bibcode = 2000Cmplx...5c..34G}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Government Printing Office, NASA SP-2009-4802| pages = 201–295| editor1 = S. J. Dick |editor2= Mark L. Lupisella | last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = Cosmos and Culture: Cultural Evolution in a Cosmic Context| chapter = Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture.| location = Washington D.C.| date = 2009}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer| isbn = 978-3-319-05061-4| last = Vidal| first = C.| title = The Beginning and the End: The Meaning of Life in a Cosmological Perspective| location = New York| date = 2014| arxiv = 1301.1648| bibcode = 2013PhDT.........2V| doi = 10.1007/978-3-319-05062-1| series = The Frontiers Collection| s2cid = 118419030| url = http://cds.cern.ch/record/1748203| type = Submitted manuscript}}</ref>

如果我们把这一推想运用到地外文明的搜索努力中，我们就会得到高级智能生命是以黑洞的形式存在的。这样的高级生命形态可能不会过多地关注星外空间和星际扩张，而会更加关注黑洞的内部空间。<ref name=":6">{{Cite journal| issn = 0007-084X| volume = 61| issue = 7| pages = 246–254| last = Ćirković| first = Milan M.| title = Against the Empire| journal = Journal of the British Interplanetary Society| date = 2008| arxiv = 0805.1821| bibcode = 2008JBIS...61..246C}}</ref> 因此，它们将在某种程度上超越我们所理解的现实，而隐匿于我们的观察范围之外。这个理论，被冠名为“超越假说”<ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer International Publishing| isbn = 978-3-319-13235-8 | last = Webb| first = Stephen| title = If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... Where Is Everybody?| location = Cham| series = Science and Fiction| date = 2015| pages = 203–206}}</ref><ref name="auto" /><ref name="auto1" />，很好地解开了费米悖论。除了超越假说，另一个解决方案就是假设我们观察到的黑洞实际上可以理解为是一个吞食恒星的智能超文明，或“星食动物”<ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer International Publishing| isbn = 978-3-319-13235-8 | last = Webb| first = Stephen| title = If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... Where Is Everybody?| location = Cham| series = Science and Fiction| date = 2015| pages = 196–200}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.actaastro.2016.06.038| issn = 0094-5765| volume = 128| pages = 251–256| last = Vidal| first = C.| title = Stellivore extraterrestrials? Binary stars as living systems| journal = Acta Astronautica| date = 2016| bibcode = 2016AcAau.128..251V| url = https://zenodo.org/record/164853}}</ref>。这种演化发展动力学鼓励研究者将宇宙自身当做是一个不断演化和发展的超体生命<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.evodevouniverse.com|title=Evo Devo Universe Community|access-date=2018-04-25}}</ref> 。如果宇宙是某种超体生命，它可能也会以自然方式<ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 9| issue = 1| pages = 173–191| last = Smolin| first = Lee| title = Did the universe evolve?| journal = Classical and Quantum Gravity| date = 1992| bibcode = 1992CQGra...9..173S| doi = 10.1088/0264-9381/9/1/016}}</ref>或借助人工进行繁殖，而生活于其间的智能生命不可或缺。<ref>{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1007/s10699-010-9182-y| issn = 1233-1821| volume = 15| issue = 4| pages = 369–373| last = Crane| first = Louis| title = Possible Implications of the Quantum Theory of Gravity: An Introduction to the Meduso-Anthropic Principle| journal = Foundations of Science| date = 2010| arxiv = hep-th/9402104}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 36| issue = 3| pages = 193–203| last = Harrison| first = E. R.| title = The Natural Selection of Universes Containing Intelligent Life| journal = Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society| date = 1995| bibcode = 1995QJRAS..36..193H}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 5| issue = 3| pages = 34–45| last = Gardner| first = J. N.| title = The Selfish Biocosm: complexity as cosmology| journal = Complexity| date = 2000| doi=10.1002/(sici)1099-0526(200001/02)5:3<34::aid-cplx7>3.0.co;2-8| bibcode = 2000Cmplx...5c..34G}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Government Printing Office, NASA SP-2009-4802| pages = 201–295| editor1 = S. J. Dick |editor2= Mark L. Lupisella | last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = Cosmos and Culture: Cultural Evolution in a Cosmic Context| chapter = Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture.| location = Washington D.C.| date = 2009}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer| isbn = 978-3-319-05061-4| last = Vidal| first = C.| title = The Beginning and the End: The Meaning of Life in a Cosmological Perspective| location = New York| date = 2014| arxiv = 1301.1648| bibcode = 2013PhDT.........2V| doi = 10.1007/978-3-319-05062-1| series = The Frontiers Collection| url = http://cds.cern.ch/record/1748203| type = Submitted manuscript}}</ref>

Kurzweil画了下面两张图来阐述加速回报定律的真义。

Kurzweil画了下面两张图来阐述加速回报定律的真义。

<gallery>

<gallery>

文件:PPTExponentialGrowthof Computing.jpeg|Computer power grows exponentially

文件:PPTExponentialGrowthof Computing.jpeg|计算机能力呈指数增长

文件:Moore's Law over 120 Years.png|Exponential growth in [[supercomputer]] power

文件:Moore's Law over 120 Years.png|[[超级计算机]]功率的指数增长

</gallery>

</gallery>

==外部链接 External links==

==外部链接==

* 加速变革 [https://web.archive.org/web/20110304064527/http://www.techcast.org/Upload/PDFs/633427424769769211_TCAlLeedahl-AcceleratingChange.pdf Accelerating Change], TechCast Article Series, Al Leedahl.

* 加速变革 [https://web.archive.org/web/20110304064527/http://www.techcast.org/Upload/PDFs/633427424769769211_TCAlLeedahl-AcceleratingChange.pdf Accelerating Change], TechCast Article Series, Al Leedahl.

* 库兹韦尔的官方网站 [http://www.kurzweilai.net/ Kurzweil's official site]

* 库兹韦尔的官方网站 [http://www.kurzweilai.net/ Kurzweil's official site]

==编者推荐==

==编者推荐==

===集智课程===

===集智文章推荐===

====[]====

*[https://swarma.org/?p=18631 奇点临近？Nature人类行为：文化演化不比生物更快]

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本中文词条由地衣审校，[[用户:薄荷|薄荷]]编辑，如有问题，欢迎在讨论页面留言。