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第1行： − 【说明】本书无中文版，故目录内容是自己翻译的，所看的是英文第二版+ 第272行：
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目录第八章
【负责】周浩杰，如有问题，欢迎交流与提出建议
【负责】周浩杰，如有问题，欢迎交流与提出建议
【说明】本书无中文版，故目录内容是自己翻译的，所看的是英文第二版。
【备注】好难，有些内容理解的不深刻因而写的不太好，我只能抛砖引玉，需要更厉害的人在初版基础上进一步迭代
【备注】好难，有些内容理解的不深刻因而写的不太好，我只能抛砖引玉，需要更厉害的人在初版基础上进一步迭代
6.1.2 统计学中苦恼的事情 A Tale of Statistical Agony 175
6.1.2 统计学中苦恼的事情 A Tale of Statistical Agony 175
6.1.3 Causality versus Exchangeability 177
6.1.3 因果关系和可交换性 Causality versus Exchangeability 177
6.1.4 A Paradox Resolved (Or: What Kind of Machine Is Man?) 180
6.1.4 被解决的悖论（或者说人是什么类型的机器） A Paradox Resolved (Or: What Kind of Machine Is Man?) 180
'''6.2 Why There Is No Statistical Test for Confounding, Why Many Think There Is, and Why They Are Almost Right 182'''
'''6.2 为什么没有关于混杂的统计检验，为什么认为应该有，为什么他们基本正确 Why There Is No Statistical Test for Confounding, Why Many Think There Is, and Why They Are Almost Right 182'''
6.2.1 Introduction 182
6.2.1 简介 Introduction 182
6.2.2 Causal and Associational Definitions 184
6.2.2 因果和关联的定义 Causal and Associational Definitions 184
'''6.3 How the Associational Criterion Fails 185'''
'''6.3 关联准则如何失效 How the Associational Criterion Fails 185'''
6.3.1 Failing Sufficiency via Marginality 185
6.3.1 凭借边缘化使充分性失效 Failing Sufficiency via Marginality 185
6.3.2 Failing Sufficiency via Closed-World Assumptions 186
6.3.2 凭借封闭世界假设使充分性失效 Failing Sufficiency via Closed-World Assumptions 186
6.3.3 Failing Necessity via Barren Proxies 186
6.3.3 凭借无益代理使必要性失效 Failing Necessity via Barren Proxies 186
6.3.4 Failing Necessity via Incidental Cancellations 188
6.3.4 凭借偶然抵消使必要性失效 Failing Necessity via Incidental Cancellations 188
'''6.4 Stable versus Incidental Unbiasedness 189'''
'''6.4 稳定无偏与偶然无偏 Stable versus Incidental Unbiasedness 189'''
6.4.1 Motivation 189
6.4.1 动机 Motivation 189
6.4.2 Formal Definitions 191
6.4.2 形式化定义 Formal Definitions 191
6.4.3 Operational Test for Stable No-Confounding 192
6.4.3 稳定无混杂的运算检验 Operational Test for Stable No-Confounding 192
'''6.5 Confounding, Collapsibility, and Exchangeability 193'''
'''6.5 混杂，可压缩性和可交换性 Confounding, Collapsibility, and Exchangeability 193'''
6.5.1 Confounding and Collapsibility 193
6.5.1 混杂和可压缩性 Confounding and Collapsibility 193
6.5.2 Confounding versus Confounders 194
6.5.2 混杂与混杂因子 Confounding versus Confounders 194
6.5.3 Exchangeability versus Structural Analysis of Confounding 196
6.5.3 可交换性与混杂结构分析 Exchangeability versus Structural Analysis of Confounding 196
'''6.6 Conclusions 199'''
'''6.6 总结 Conclusions 199'''
=== 7 The Logic of Structure-Based Counterfactuals 201 ===
=== 7 结构化反事实的逻辑 The Logic of Structure-Based Counterfactuals 201 ===
'''7.1 Structural Model Semantics 202'''
'''7.1 语义模型的语义学 Structural Model Semantics 202'''
7.1.1 Definitions: Causal Models, Actions, and Counterfactuals 202
7.1.1 定义：因果模型，行动和反事实Definitions: Causal Models, Actions, and Counterfactuals 202
7.1.2 Evaluating Counterfactuals: Deterministic Analysis 207
7.1.2 评估反事实：确定性分析 Evaluating Counterfactuals: Deterministic Analysis 207
7.1.3 Evaluating Counterfactuals: Probabilistic Analysis 212
7.1.3 评估反事实：概率分析 Evaluating Counterfactuals: Probabilistic Analysis 212
7.1.4 The Twin Network Method 213
7.1.4 孪生网络法 The Twin Network Method 213
'''7.2 Applications and Interpretation of Structural Models 215'''
'''7.2 结构模型的应用和解释 Applications and Interpretation of Structural Models 215'''
7.2.1 Policy Analysis in Linear Econometric Models: An Example 215
7.2.1 例子：线性计量经济学模型的策略分析 Policy Analysis in Linear Econometric Models: An Example 215
7.2.2 The Empirical Content of Counterfactuals 217
7.2.2 反事实的实证性内容 The Empirical Content of Counterfactuals 217
7.2.3 Causal Explanations, Utterances, and Their Interpretation 221
7.2.3 因果解释，表达及其解释 Causal Explanations, Utterances, and Their Interpretation 221
7.2.4 From Mechanisms to Actions to Causation 223
7.2.4 从机制到行动再到因果 From Mechanisms to Actions to Causation 223
7.2.5 Simon’s Causal Ordering 226
7.2.5 辛普森的因果顺序 Simon's Causal Ordering 226
'''7.3 Axiomatic Characterization 228'''
'''7.3 公理刻画 Axiomatic Characterization 228'''
7.3.1 The Axioms of Structural Counterfactuals 228
7.3.1 结构反事实的公理 The Axioms of Structural Counterfactuals 228
7.3.2 Causal Effects from Counterfactual Logic: An Example 231
7.3.2 例子：从反事实逻辑来的因果效应 Causal Effects from Counterfactual Logic: An Example 231
7.3.3 Axioms of Causal Relevance 234
7.3.3 因果相关的公理 Axioms of Causal Relevance 234
'''7.4 Structural and Similarity-Based Counterfactuals 238'''
'''7.4 结构化和基于相似的反事实 Structural and Similarity-Based Counterfactuals 238'''
7.4.1 Relations to Lewis’s Counterfactuals 238
7.4.1 与路易斯反事实的关系Relations to Lewis's Counterfactuals 238
7.4.2 Axiomatic Comparison 240
7.4.2 公理系统的比较 Axiomatic Comparison 240
7.4.3 Imaging versus Conditioning 242
7.4.3 成像与条件 Imaging versus Conditioning 242
7.4.4 Relations to the Neyman–Rubin Framework 243
7.4.4 与內曼-鲁宾框架的关系 Relations to the Neyman–Rubin Framework 243
7.4.5 Exogeneity and Instruments: Counterfactual and Graphical Definitions 245
7.4.5 外生性和工具变量：基于反事实和图的定义 Exogeneity and Instruments: Counterfactual and Graphical Definitions 245
'''7.5 Structural versus Probabilistic Causality 249'''
'''7.5 结构因果与概率因果 Structural versus Probabilistic Causality 249'''
7.5.1 The Reliance on Temporal Ordering 249
7.5.1 时序依赖 The Reliance on Temporal Ordering 249
7.5.2 The Perils of Circularity 250
7.5.2 死循环风险 The Perils of Circularity 250
7.5.3 Challenging the Closed-World Assumption, with Children 252
7.5.3 与孩子们一起挑战封闭世界假设 Challenging the Closed-World Assumption, with Children 252
7.5.4 Singular versus General Causes 253
7.5.4 特例因果与一般因果 Singular versus General Causes 253
7.5.5 Summary 256
7.5.5 总结 Summary 256
=== 8 Imperfect Experiments: Bounding Effects and Counterfactuals 259 ===
=== 8 不完美实验：边界效应和反事实 Imperfect Experiments: Bounding Effects and Counterfactuals 259 ===
'''8.1 Introduction 259'''
'''8.1 简介 Introduction 259'''
8.1.1 Imperfect and Indirect Experiments 259
8.1.1 不完美的间接实验 Imperfect and Indirect Experiments 259
8.1.2 Noncompliance and Intent to Treat 261
8.1.2 不依从性和治疗意愿 Noncompliance and Intent to Treat 261
'''8.2 Bounding Causal Effects with Instrumental Variables 262'''
'''8.2 工具变量的边界效应 Bounding Causal Effects with Instrumental Variables 262'''
8.2.1 Problem Formulation: Constrained Optimization 262
8.2.1 问题的形式化描述：约束优化 Problem Formulation: Constrained Optimization 262
8.2.2 Canonical Partitions: The Evolution of Finite-Response Variables 263
8.2.2 正则划分：有限响应变量的演化 Canonical Partitions: The Evolution of Finite-Response Variables 263
8.2.3 Linear Programming Formulation 266
8.2.3 线性规划公式 Linear Programming Formulation 266
8.2.4 The Natural Bounds 268
8.2.4 自然边界 The Natural Bounds 268
8.2.5 Effect of Treatment on the Treated (ETT) 269
8.2.5 治疗效果（ETT） Effect of Treatment on the Treated (ETT) 269
8.2.6 Example: The Effect of Cholestyramine 270
8.2.6 例子：消胆胺的效果 Example: The Effect of Cholestyramine 270
'''8.3 Counterfactuals and Legal Responsibility 271'''
'''8.3 反事实和法律责任 Counterfactuals and Legal Responsibility 271'''
'''8.4 A Test for Instruments 274'''
'''8.4 工具变量测试 A Test for Instruments 274'''
'''8.5 A Bayesian Approach to Noncompliance 275'''
'''8.5 利用解决不依从性 A Bayesian Approach to Noncompliance 275'''
8.5.1 Bayesian Methods and Gibbs Sampling 275
8.5.1 贝叶斯方法和吉布斯采样 Bayesian Methods and Gibbs Sampling 275
8.5.2 The Effects of Sample Size and Prior Distribution 277
8.5.2 采样大小和先验分布的影响 The Effects of Sample Size and Prior Distribution 277
8.5.3 Causal Effects from Clinical Data with Imperfect Compliance 277
8.5.3 不完全依从的临床数据估计因果效应 Causal Effects from Clinical Data with Imperfect Compliance 277
8.5.4 Bayesian Estimate of Single-Event Causation 280
8.5.4 单事件因果的贝叶斯估计 Bayesian Estimate of Single-Event Causation 280
'''8.6 Conclusion 281'''
'''8.6 结论 Conclusion 281'''
=== 9 Probability of Causation: Interpretation and Identification 283 ===
=== 9 Probability of Causation: Interpretation and Identification 283 ===