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第1行： − + − + − − The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect is a 2018 nonfiction book by computer scientist [[Judea Pearl]] and writer Dana Mackenzie. The book explores the subject of causality and causal inference from statistical and philosophical points of view for a general audience. 第30行：
第28行： − + − === Summary ===+ − + − + − + − + − + − + − + − + − + − + − − + − + − The book consists of ten chapters and an introduction.+ − Introduction: Mind over Data+ − The introduction describes the inadequacy of early 20th century statistical methods at making statements about causal relationships between variables. The authors then describe what they term 'The Causal Revolution', which started in the middle of the 20th century, and provided new conceptual and mathematical tools for describing causal relationships.+ − Chapter 1: The Ladder of Causation+ − Chapter 1 introduces the 'ladder of causation' - a diagram used to illustrate the three levels of causal reasoning. The first level is named 'Association', which discusses associations between variables. Questions such as 'is variable X associated with variable Y?' can be answered at this level. However, crucially, causality is not invoked. An example of reasoning on this first level is the observation that a crowing rooster is associated with the sunrise. However, this kind of reasoning cannot describe causal relations, for example, we cannot say whether the sunrise causes the rooster to crow, or whether the rooster causes the sun to rise. Many of the early 20th century statistical tools, such as correlation and regression operate on this level.+ − The second level (or 'rung') on the ladder of causation is labelled 'Intervention'. Reasoning on this level answers questions of the form 'if I make the intervention X, how will this affect the probability of the outcome Y?'. For example, the question 'does smoking increase my chance of lung cancer?' exists on the second level of the ladder of causation. This kind of reasoning invokes causality and can be used to investigate more questions than the reasoning of the first rung.+ − The third rung of the ladder of causation is labelled 'Counterfactuals' and involves answering questions which ask what might have been, had circumstances been different. Such reasoning invokes causality to a greater degree than the previous level. An example counterfactual question given in the book is 'Would Kennedy be alive if Oswald had not killed him?'+ 第103行：
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第113行： − References[edit]+ − − Judea Pearl's information page for The Book of Why, <nowiki>http://bayes.cs.ucla.edu/WHY/</nowiki> − − "Review: The Book of Why Examines the Science of Cause and Effect". The New York Times. 1 June 2018. − − Tim Maudlin (4 September 2019). "The Why of the World". The Boston Review. − − Zoe Hackett (18 January 2019). "The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect". Chemistry World. − + + + + +
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[[文件:The Book of Why.jpg|缩略图|
[[文件:The Book of Why.jpg|缩略图|
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《为什么:因果新科学》是计算机科学家朱迪亚·珀尔和作家达娜·麦肯齐在2018年合著的非小说类书籍。这本书为普通读者从统计和哲学的观点探讨了因果关系和因果推理的问题。
== Contents ==
== Contents ==
* 引言:思维胜于数据
* Introduction: Mind over Data
* 第一章：因果关系之梯
* Chapter 1: The Ladder of Causation
* 第二章：从海盗到豚鼠：因果推断的起源
* Chapter 2: From Buccaneers to Guinea Pigs: The Genesis of Causal Inference
* 第三章：从证据到原因：当贝叶斯牧师遇见福尔摩斯先生
* Chapter 3: From Evidence to Causes: Reverend [Thomas Bayes|Bayes] meets Mr Holmes
* 第四章：混杂和去混杂：或者，消灭潜伏变量
* Chapter 4: Confounding and Deconfounding, or, Slaying the Lurking Variable
* 第五章：烟雾缭绕的争论：消除迷雾，澄清事实
* Chapter 5: The Smoke-filled Debate: Clearing the Air
* 第六章：大量的悖论！
* Chapter 6: Paradoxes Galore!
* 第七章：超越统计调整：征服干预之峰
* Chapter 7: Beyond Adjustment: The Conquest of Mount Intervention
* 第八章：反事实：探索关于“假如”的世界
* Chapter 8: Counterfactuals: Mining worlds that could have been
* 第九章：中介：寻找隐藏的作用机制
* Chapter 9: Mediation: The Search for Mechanism
* 第十章：大数据，人工智能和重要问题
* Chapter 10: Big Data, Artificial Intelligence and the Big Questions
=== Reviews ===
=== 致谢 ===
=== References ===
=== 参考文献 ===
本书包含了10个章节和引言部分。
引言：思维胜于数据
导言描述了20世纪早期统计方法在陈述变量之间的因果关系方面的不足。在此之后，作者描述了他们称之为“因果革命”的事件，它始于20世纪中期，为描述因果关系提供了新的概念和数学工具。
第一章：因果关系之梯
第一章介绍了“因果阶梯”——一个用来说明因果推理三个层次的图表。第一级是“关联”，它讨论变量之间的关联。诸如“变量X与变量Y相关吗?”这个层次上的回答。然而，在第一级中还没有提到因果关系。第一级的例子是观察到公鸡啼叫与日出有关，然而，这种推理不能描述因果关系，因为我们不能说日出是否导致公鸡鸣叫。
因果关系阶梯的第二级被称为“干预”。在这一层面上的推理需要回答“如果我干预X，这将如何影响结果Y的概率?”例如，“吸烟会增加我患肺癌的几率吗?”存在于因果阶梯的第二级。这种推理调用了因果关系，可以用于分析比第一级推理更多的问题。
因果关系阶梯的第三级被称为“反事实”，包括回答一些问题:如果环境不同，会发生什么?这种推理在更大程度上调用了因果关系。书中给出的一个反事实问题是“如果奥斯瓦尔德没有杀死肯尼迪，他还会活着吗?”
Chapter 2: From Buccaneers to Guinea Pigs: The Genesis of Causal Inference
Chapter 2: From Buccaneers to Guinea Pigs: The Genesis of Causal Inference
The final chapter discusses the use of causal reasoning in big data and artificial intelligence (AI) and the philosophical problem that AI would have to reflect on its own actions, which requires counterfactual (and therefore causal) reasoning.
The final chapter discusses the use of causal reasoning in big data and artificial intelligence (AI) and the philosophical problem that AI would have to reflect on its own actions, which requires counterfactual (and therefore causal) reasoning.
Reviews[edit]
== Reviews ==
Scientific Background, excerpts, errata, and a list of 37 reviews of The Book of Why is provided on Judea Pearl's web page
Scientific Background, excerpts, errata, and a list of 37 reviews of The Book of Why is provided on Judea Pearl's web page
Lisa R. Goldberg wrote a detailed, technical review in Notices of the American Mathematical Society.
Lisa R. Goldberg wrote a detailed, technical review in Notices of the American Mathematical Society.
== 参考文献 ==
Lisa R. Goldberg (August 2019). "The Book of Why" (PDF). Notices of the American Mathematical Society.
# Judea Pearl's information page for The Book of Why, <nowiki>http://bayes.cs.ucla.edu/WHY/</nowiki>
# "Review: The Book of Why Examines the Science of Cause and Effect". The New York Times. 1 June 2018.
# Tim Maudlin (4 September 2019). "The Why of the World". The Boston Review.
# Zoe Hackett (18 January 2019). "The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect". Chemistry World.
# Lisa R. Goldberg (August 2019). "The Book of Why" (PDF). Notices of the American Mathematical Society.