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→Pandemic analysis
====Pandemic analysis====
====Pandemic analysis====
流行病分析
The [[SIR model]] is one of the most well known algorithms on predicting the spread of global pandemics within an infectious population.
The [[SIR model]] is one of the most well known algorithms on predicting the spread of global pandemics within an infectious population.
The SIR model is one of the most well known algorithms on predicting the spread of global pandemics within an infectious population.
SIR模型是预测全球传染病在感染人群中传播的最著名的算法之一。
=====Susceptible to infected=====
=====Susceptible to infected=====
易感人群
: <math>S = \beta\left(\frac 1 N \right)</math>
: <math>S = \beta\left(\frac 1 N \right)</math>
The formula above describes the "force" of infection for each susceptible unit in an infectious population, where {{math|β}} is equivalent to the transmission rate of said disease.
The formula above describes the "force" of infection for each susceptible unit in an infectious population, where {{math|β}} is equivalent to the transmission rate of said disease.
这个公式描述的是人群中每个易感单元的感染“力”，其中 {{math|β}} 代表的是疾病的传播概率。
To track the change of those susceptible in an infectious population:
To track the change of those susceptible in an infectious population:
跟踪人群中易感人数随时间的变化：
: <math>\Delta S = \beta \times S {1\over N} \, \Delta t</math>
: <math>\Delta S = \beta \times S {1\over N} \, \Delta t</math>
=====Infected to recovered=====
=====Infected to recovered=====
感染到康复
: <math>\Delta I = \mu I \, \Delta t</math>
: <math>\Delta I = \mu I \, \Delta t</math>
Over time, the number of those infected fluctuates by: the specified rate of recovery, represented by <math>\mu</math> but deducted to one over the average infectious period <math>{1\over \tau}</math>, the numbered of infectious individuals, <math>I</math>, and the change in time, <math>\Delta t</math>.
Over time, the number of those infected fluctuates by: the specified rate of recovery, represented by <math>\mu</math> but deducted to one over the average infectious period <math>{1\over \tau}</math>, the numbered of infectious individuals, <math>I</math>, and the change in time, <math>\Delta t</math>.
随着时间的推移，感染人数的波动幅度为: 以<math>\mu</math>来表示特定的恢复率，移除的平均感染期记为<math>{1\over \tau}</math>，感染个体的数量 <math>I</math>，以及时间的变化<math>\Delta t</math>。
=====Infectious period=====
=====Infectious period=====
感染时期
Whether a population will be overcome by a pandemic, with regards to the SIR model, is dependent on the value of <math>R_0</math> or the "average people infected by an infected individual."
Whether a population will be overcome by a pandemic, with regards to the SIR model, is dependent on the value of <math>R_0</math> or the "average people infected by an infected individual."
就 SIR 模型而言，被流行病感染的人口数量，取决于数学<math>R_0</math>基本传染数的数值，是指被感染个体能感染普通人群的人数。比如<math>R_0 = 3</math>，意味着一个感染者平均感染3个未感染者。
: <math>R_0 = \beta\tau = {\beta\over\mu}</math>
: <math>R_0 = \beta\tau = {\beta\over\mu}</math>