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第1行： − 此词条暂由彩云小译翻译，翻译字数共1792，未经人工整理和审校，带来阅读不便，请见谅。+ − {{Use dmy dates|date=November 2019}}+ − {{short description|Quantitative methods used to simulate climate}}+ − {{about|the theories and mathematics of climate modeling|computer-driven prediction of Earth's climate|General circulation model}}+ − {{broader|Atmospheric model}}+ − [[File:Global Climate Model.png|thumb|right|350px|Climate models are systems of [[differential equation]]s based on the basic laws of [[physics]], [[Fluid dynamics|fluid motion]], and [[chemistry]]. To “run” a model, scientists divide the planet into a 3-dimensional grid, apply the basic equations, and evaluate the results. Atmospheric models calculate [[winds]], [[heat transfer]], [[radiation]], [[relative humidity]], and surface [[hydrology]] within each grid and evaluate interactions with neighboring points.]]+ − + + + + 第13行：
第16行： − + + + + + − + − Numerical climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the important drivers of climate, including atmosphere, oceans, land surface and ice. They are used for a variety of purposes from study of the dynamics of the climate system to projections of future climate. Climate models may also be qualitative (i.e. not numerical) models and also narratives, largely descriptive, of possible futures. − − 数值气候模型使用定量方法来模拟气候的重要驱动因素之间的相互作用，包括大气、海洋、陆地表面和冰。它们被用于从研究气候系统的动态到预测未来气候的各种目的。气候模型也可以是定性的(例如:。而不是数字)模型，以及对未来可能的叙述，主要是描述。 − − Quantitative climate models take account of incoming [[energy]] from the sun as short wave [[electromagnetic radiation]], chiefly [[Visible spectrum|visible]] and short-wave (near) [[infrared]], as well as outgoing long wave (far) [[infrared]] electromagnetic. An imbalance results in a [[First law of thermodynamics|change in temperature]]. − − Quantitative climate models take account of incoming energy from the sun as short wave electromagnetic radiation, chiefly visible and short-wave (near) infrared, as well as outgoing long wave (far) infrared electromagnetic. An imbalance results in a change in temperature. − − 定量气候模型考虑到来自太阳的入射能量为短波电磁辐射，主要是可见光和短波(近)红外线，以及外向长波(远)红外线电磁辐射。不平衡导致温度的变化。 − − Quantitative models vary in complexity: − * A simple [[radiant heat]] transfer model treats the earth as a single point and averages outgoing energy. This can be expanded vertically (radiative-convective models) and/or horizontally − * Finally, (coupled) atmosphere–ocean–[[sea ice]] [[global climate model]]s solve the full equations for mass and [[energy transfer]] and radiant exchange. − * Other types of modelling can be interlinked, such as [[land use]], in [[Earth system model|Earth System Models]], allowing researchers to predict the interaction between climate and [[ecosystems]]. − − Quantitative models vary in complexity: − * A simple radiant heat transfer model treats the earth as a single point and averages outgoing energy. This can be expanded vertically (radiative-convective models) and/or horizontally − * Finally, (coupled) atmosphere–ocean–sea ice global climate models solve the full equations for mass and energy transfer and radiant exchange. − * Other types of modelling can be interlinked, such as land use, in Earth System Models, allowing researchers to predict the interaction between climate and ecosystems. − − 定量模型的复杂性各不相同: − * 一个简单的辐射热传递模型将地球作为一个单点，对输出能量进行平均。最后，(耦合的)大气-海洋-海冰全球气候模式解决了质量、能量转移和辐射交换的完整方程。 − * 在地球系统模型中，其他类型的模型可以相互关联，例如土地使用，使研究人员能够预测气候与生态系统之间的相互作用。 − − + + 第77行：
第61行： − − == Zero-dimensional models == 第85行：
第67行： − − A very simple model of the radiative equilibrium of the Earth is − − 地球辐射平衡的一个非常简单的模型是 − − :<math>(1-a)S \pi r^2 = 4 \pi r^2 \epsilon \sigma T^4</math> − − : (1-a) s pi r ^ 2 = 4 pi r ^ 2 epsilon sigma t ^ 4 − − where − − 在哪里 − + − + − * the left hand side represents the incoming energy from the Sun − * the right hand side represents the outgoing energy from the Earth, calculated from the Stefan–Boltzmann law assuming a model-fictive temperature, T, sometimes called the 'equilibrium temperature of the Earth', that is to be found, − − − * 左边代表来自太阳的能量 − * 右边代表来自地球的能量，根据 Stefan-Boltzmann 定律计算，假设模型假设温度 t，有时称为‘地球的平衡温度’, − − and − − and − − 及 − − − * ''<math>a</math>'' is the [[Earth]]'s average [[albedo]], measured to be 0.3.<ref>{{cite journal |last=Goode |first=P. R. |year=2001 |title=Earthshine Observations of the Earth's Reflectance |journal=Geophys. Res. Lett. |volume=28 |issue=9 |pages=1671–4 |doi=10.1029/2000GL012580 |bibcode=2001GeoRL..28.1671G|display-authors=etal|url=https://authors.library.caltech.edu/50838/1/grl14388.pdf }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=Scientists Watch Dark Side of the Moon to Monitor Earth's Climate |url=http://www.agu.org/sci_soc/prrl/prrl0113.html |work=American Geophysical Union | date=17 April 2001 }}</ref> − * ''r'' is Earth's radius—approximately 6.371×10<sup>6</sup>m − * ''[[pi|π]]'' is the mathematical constant (3.141...) − * ''<math> \sigma </math>'' is the [[Stefan–Boltzmann constant]]—approximately 5.67×10<sup>−8</sup> J·K<sup>−4</sup>·m<sup>−2</sup>·s<sup>−1</sup> − * ''<math> \epsilon </math>'' is the effective [[emissivity]] of earth, about 0.612 − − * S is the solar constant – the incoming solar radiation per unit area—about 1367 W·m−2 − + − + + + + + − + − − + − + − + − − The constant πr2 can be factored out, giving − − 常数 πr2可以分解出来，给出 − − :<math>(1-a)S = 4 \epsilon \sigma T^4</math> − − : (1-a) s = 4 epsilon sigma t ^ 4 − − Solving for the temperature, − :<math>T = \sqrt[4]{ \frac{(1-a)S}{4 \epsilon \sigma}}</math> − − + − 求解温度，: t = sqrt [4]{ frac {(1-a) s }{4 epsilon sigma }}+ − This yields an apparent effective average earth temperature of {{convert|288|K|abbr=on|lk=on}}.<ref>[http://eospso.gsfc.nasa.gov/ftp_docs/lithographs/CERES_litho.pdf ] {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130218204711/http://eospso.gsfc.nasa.gov/ftp_docs/lithographs/CERES_litho.pdf |date=18 February 2013 }}</ref> This is because the above equation represents the effective ''radiative'' temperature of the Earth (including the clouds and atmosphere). + − + − 这样得到的表观有效地球平均温度为。这是因为上面的方程代表了地球的有效辐射温度(包括云和大气)。+
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此词条暂由气象人翻译。
Climate models are systems of [[differential equation]]s based on the basic laws of [[physics]], [[Fluid dynamics|fluid motion]], and [[chemistry]]. To “run” a model, scientists divide the planet into a Three-dimensional grid, apply the basic equations, and evaluate the results. Atmospheric models calculate [[winds]], [[heat transfer]], [[radiation]], [[relative humidity]], and [[气候模式#/javascript:%3B|'''overland''']] [[气候模式#/javascript:%3B|'''runoff''']] within each grid and evaluate interactions with neighboring points.
气候模型是基于物理、流体运动和化学基本定律的微分方程系统。 为了“运行”一个模型，科学家们将地球划分成一个三维网格，应用基本方程，并对结果进行评估。 大气模型计算每个网格内的风、热传递、辐射、相对湿度和地表径流，并评估与邻近点的相互作用。
Climate models may be Numerical，and also qualitative (i.e. not numerical) .
Numerical '''climate models''' use [[quantitative method]]s to simulate the interactions of the important drivers of climate, including [[Earth's atmosphere|atmosphere]], [[ocean]]s, [[land surface]] and [[cryosphere|ice]]. They are used for a variety of purposes from study of the dynamics of the climate system to projections of future [[climate]]. Climate models may also be qualitative (i.e. not numerical) models and also narratives, largely descriptive, of possible futures.<ref>{{cite journal
Numerical climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the important drivers of climate, including atmosphere, oceans, land surface and ice. They are used for a variety of purposes from study of the dynamics of the climate system to projections of future climate.
Qualitative Climate models are narratives, largely descriptive, of possible futures.<ref name=":0">{{cite journal
| author = IPCC
| author = IPCC
| year = 2014
| year = 2014
| url = https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full.pdf#page=74
| url = https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full.pdf#page=74
| quote = Box 2.3. ‘Models’ are typically numerical simulations of real-world systems, calibrated and validated using observations from experiments or analogies, and then run using input data representing future climate. Models can also include largely descriptive narratives of possible futures, such as those used in scenario construction. Quantitative and descriptive models are often used together.
| quote = Box 2.3. ‘Models’ are typically numerical simulations of real-world systems, calibrated and validated using observations from experiments or analogies, and then run using input data representing future climate. Models can also include largely descriptive narratives of possible futures, such as those used in scenario construction. Quantitative and descriptive models are often used together.
}}</ref>
}}</ref>Quantitative climate models take account of incoming energy from the sun as short wave electromagnetic radiation, chiefly visible and short-wave (near) infrared, as well as outgoing long wave (far) infrared electromagnetic. An imbalance results in a change in temperature.
Quantitative models vary in complexity:
·A simple radiant heat transfer model treats the earth as a single point and averages outgoing energy. This can be expanded vertically (radiative-convective models) and/or horizontallyFinally, (coupled) atmosphere–ocean–sea ice global climate models solve the full equations for mass and energy transfer and radiant exchange.Other types of modelling can be interlinked, such as land use, in Earth System Models, allowing researchers to predict the interaction between climate and ecosystems.
气候模式可以是数值的，也可以是定性的(即不是数值的)。数值气候模型使用定量方法来模拟气候的重要驱动因素之间的相互作用，包括大气、海洋、陆地表面和冰。它们被用于从研究气候系统的动态到预测未来气候的各种目的。定性的气候模型通常是对未来的可能描述<ref name=":0" />。定性的气候模型考虑到来自太阳的入射能量为短波电磁辐射，主要是可见光和短波(近)红外线，以及外向长波(远)红外线电磁辐射。不平衡导致温度的变化。
定性模型的复杂性各不相同:
一个简单的辐射热传递模型是将地球作为一个单点，对输出能量进行平均。(耦合的)大气-海洋-海冰全球气候模式解决了质量、能量转移和辐射交换的完整方程。在地球系统模型中，其他类型的模型可以相互关联，例如土地使用，使研究人员能够预测气候与生态系统之间的相互作用。[[File:Global Climate Model.png|thumb|right|350px|Climate models are systems of [[differential equation]]s based on the basic laws of [[physics]], [[Fluid dynamics|fluid motion]], and [[chemistry]]. To “run” a model, scientists divide the planet into a 3-dimensional grid, apply the basic equations, and evaluate the results. Atmospheric models calculate [[winds]], [[heat transfer]], [[radiation]], [[relative humidity]], and surface [[hydrology]] within each grid and evaluate interactions with neighboring points.|链接=Special:FilePath/Global_Climate_Model.png]]
==Box models==
==Box models==
[[File:Simple box model.png|thumb|upright=1|right| Schematic of a simple box model used to illustrate [[flux]]es in geochemical cycles, showing a source ''(Q)'', sink ''(S)'' and reservoir ''(M)'']]
[[File:Simple box model.png|thumb|upright=1|right| Schematic of a simple box model used to illustrate [[flux]]es in geochemical cycles, showing a source ''(Q)'', sink ''(S)'' and reservoir ''(M)''|链接=Special:FilePath/Simple_box_model.png]]
= = 盒子模型= =
Box models are simplified versions of complex systems, reducing them to boxes (or [[Thermodynamics#Instrumentation|reservoir]]s) linked by fluxes. The boxes are assumed to be mixed homogeneously. Within a given box, the concentration of any [[chemical species]] is therefore uniform. However, the abundance of a species within a given box may vary as a function of time due to the input to (or loss from) the box or due to the production, consumption or decay of this species within the box.
Box models are simplified versions of complex systems, reducing them to boxes (or [[Thermodynamics#Instrumentation|reservoir]]s) linked by fluxes. The boxes are assumed to be mixed homogeneously. Within a given box, the concentration of any [[chemical species]] is therefore uniform. However, the abundance of a species within a given box may vary as a function of time due to the input to (or loss from) the box or due to the production, consumption or decay of this species within the box.
箱模型被广泛用于模拟环境系统或生态系统以及海洋环流和碳循环的研究。它们是多室模型的实例。
箱模型被广泛用于模拟环境系统或生态系统以及海洋环流和碳循环的研究。它们是多室模型的实例。
== Zero-dimensional models ==
== Zero-dimensional models ==
A very simple model of the [[radiative equilibrium]] of the Earth is
A very simple model of the [[radiative equilibrium]] of the Earth is
:(1-a)S \pi r^2 = 4 \pi r^2 \epsilon \sigma T^4
:(1-a)S \pi r^2 = 4 \pi r^2 \epsilon \sigma T^4
where
where
* the left hand side represents the incoming energy from the Sun
* the left hand side represents the incoming energy from the Sun
* the right hand side represents the outgoing energy from the Earth, calculated from the [[Stefan–Boltzmann law]] assuming a model-fictive temperature, ''T'', sometimes called the 'equilibrium temperature of the Earth', that is to be found,
* the right hand side represents the outgoing energy from the Earth, calculated from the [[Stefan–Boltzmann law]] assuming a model-fictive temperature, ''T'', sometimes called the “equilibrium temperature of the Earth”, that is to be found.
* S is the solar constant – the incoming solar radiation per unit area—about 1367 W·m<sup>−2</sup>
* ''S'' is the [[solar constant]] – the incoming solar radiation per unit area—about 1367 W·m<sup>−2</sup>
* a is the Earth's average albedo, measured to be 0.3.
* a is the Earth's average albedo, measured to be 0.3.
* r is Earth's radius—approximately 6.371×106m
* r is Earth's radius—approximately 6.371×106m
* π is the mathematical constant (3.141...)
* π is the mathematical constant (3.141...)
* \sigma is the Stefan–Boltzmann constant—approximately 5.67×10−8 J·K−4·m−2·s−1
* σ is the Stefan–Boltzmann constant—approximately 5.67×10−8 J·K−4·m−2·s−1
* \epsilon is the effective emissivity of earth, about 0.612
* ε is the effective emissivity of earth, about 0.612
* 一个非常简单的地球辐射平衡模型是：
(1-a)S \pi r^2 = 4 \pi r^2 \epsilon \sigma T^4
* 左边代表来自太阳的能量。
* 右边代表来自地球的能量，根据 Stefan-Boltzmann 定律计算，假设模型假设温度 t，有时称为“地球的平衡温度”。
* s 是太阳常数，即单位面积内的入射太阳辐射ー约1367 w m ー2
* s 是太阳常数，即单位面积内的入射太阳辐射ー约1367 w m ー2
* a 是地球的平均反照率，测量值为0.3。
* a 是地球的平均反照率，测量值为0.3。
* r 为地球半径ー大约6.371 × 106m
* r 为地球半径ー大约6.371 × 106m
* π 为数学常数(3.141...)
* π 为数学常数(3.141...)
* σ 为斯蒂芬-玻尔兹曼常数ー大约5.67 × 10-8j k-4 m-2 s-1
* σ 为斯蒂芬-玻尔兹曼常数ー大约5.67 × 10<sup>-8</sup>jk<sup>-4</sup>m<sup>-2</sup>s<sup>-1</sup>
* ε 为地球的有效发射率，大约0.612
* ε 为地球的有效发射率，大约0.612
The constant ''πr''<sup>2</sup> can be factored out, giving
The constant ''πr''<sup>2</sup> can be factored out, giving
:(1-a)S = 4 \epsilon \sigma T^4
:(1-a)S = 4 \epsilon \sigma T^4
Solving for the temperature,
Solving for the temperature,
:T = \sqrt[4]{ \frac{(1-a)S}{4 \epsilon \sigma}}
:<nowiki>T = \sqrt[4]{ \frac{(1-a)S}{4 \epsilon \sigma}}</nowiki> 常数 πr2可以分解出来，给出
求解温度 ,
<nowiki>T = sqrt [4]{ frac {(1-a) s }{4 epsilon sigma }}</nowiki>
This yields an apparent effective average earth temperature of . This is because the above equation represents the effective radiative temperature of the Earth (including the clouds and atmosphere).
This yields an apparent effective average earth temperature of Convert.<ref>[http://eospso.gsfc.nasa.gov/ftp_docs/lithographs/CERES_litho.pdf ] {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130218204711/http://eospso.gsfc.nasa.gov/ftp_docs/lithographs/CERES_litho.pdf |date=18 February 2013 }}</ref> This is because the above equation represents the effective ''radiative'' temperature of the Earth (including the clouds and atmosphere).
这样得到转换的表观有效地球平均温度。这是因为上面的方程代表了地球的有效辐射温度(包括云和大气)。
This very simple model is quite instructive. For example, it easily determines the effect on average earth temperature of changes in solar constant or change of albedo or effective earth emissivity.
This very simple model is quite instructive. For example, it easily determines the effect on average earth temperature of changes in solar constant or change of albedo or effective earth emissivity.