更改

System dynamics (SD) is an approach to understanding the nonlinear behaviour of complex systems over time using stocks, flows, internal feedback loops, table functions and time delays.

System dynamics (SD) is an approach to understanding the nonlinear behaviour of complex systems over time using stocks, flows, internal feedback loops, table functions and time delays.

'''系统动力学 System Dynamics，SD'''是利用存量、流量、内部反馈回路、表函数和时滞等信息来理解复杂系统在一段时间内的非线性行为的一种方法。

'''系统动力学 System Dynamics，SD'''是利用存量、流量、内部反馈回路、表函数和时滞等信息来理解复杂系统随时间变化的非线性行为的一种方法。

System dynamics is a methodology and mathematical modeling technique to frame, understand, and discuss complex issues and problems. Originally developed in the 1950s to help corporate managers improve their understanding of industrial processes, SD is currently being used throughout the public and private sector for policy analysis and design.

System dynamics is a methodology and mathematical modeling technique to frame, understand, and discuss complex issues and problems. Originally developed in the 1950s to help corporate managers improve their understanding of industrial processes, SD is currently being used throughout the public and private sector for policy analysis and design.

 

 

Convenient graphical user interface (GUI) system dynamics software developed into user friendly versions by the 1990s and have been applied to diverse systems. SD models solve the problem of simultaneity (mutual causation) by updating all variables in small time increments with positive and negative feedbacks and time delays structuring the interactions and control. The best known SD model is probably the 1972 The Limits to Growth. This model forecast that exponential growth of population and capital, with finite resource sources and sinks and perception delays, would lead to economic collapse during the 21st century under a wide variety of growth scenarios.

Convenient graphical user interface (GUI) system dynamics software developed into user friendly versions by the 1990s and have been applied to diverse systems. SD models solve the problem of simultaneity (mutual causation) by updating all variables in small time increments with positive and negative feedbacks and time delays structuring the interactions and control. The best known SD model is probably the 1972 The Limits to Growth. This model forecast that exponential growth of population and capital, with finite resource sources and sinks and perception delays, would lead to economic collapse during the 21st century under a wide variety of growth scenarios.

 

System dynamics is an aspect of systems theory as a method to understand the dynamic behavior of complex systems. The basis of the method is the recognition that the structure of any system, the many circular, interlocking, sometimes time-delayed relationships among its components, is often just as important in determining its behavior as the individual components themselves. Examples are chaos theory and social dynamics. It is also claimed that because there are often properties-of-the-whole which cannot be found among the properties-of-the-elements, in some cases the behavior of the whole cannot be explained in terms of the behavior of the parts.

System dynamics is an aspect of systems theory as a method to understand the dynamic behavior of complex systems. The basis of the method is the recognition that the structure of any system, the many circular, interlocking, sometimes time-delayed relationships among its components, is often just as important in determining its behavior as the individual components themselves. Examples are chaos theory and social dynamics. It is also claimed that because there are often properties-of-the-whole which cannot be found among the properties-of-the-elements, in some cases the behavior of the whole cannot be explained in terms of the behavior of the parts.

 

System dynamics was created during the mid-1950s by Professor Jay Forrester of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In 1956, Forrester accepted a professorship in the newly formed MIT Sloan School of Management. His initial goal was to determine how his background in science and engineering could be brought to bear, in some useful way, on the core issues that determine the success or failure of corporations. Forrester's insights into the common foundations that underlie engineering, which led to the creation of system dynamics, were triggered, to a large degree, by his involvement with managers at General Electric (GE) during the mid-1950s. At that time, the managers at GE were perplexed because employment at their appliance plants in Kentucky exhibited a significant three-year cycle. The business cycle was judged to be an insufficient explanation for the employment instability. From hand simulations (or calculations) of the stock-flow-feedback structure of the GE plants, which included the existing corporate decision-making structure for hiring and layoffs, Forrester was able to show how the instability in GE employment was due to the internal structure of the firm and not to an external force such as the business cycle. These hand simulations were the start of the field of system dynamics.

System dynamics was created during the mid-1950s by Professor Jay Forrester of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In 1956, Forrester accepted a professorship in the newly formed MIT Sloan School of Management. His initial goal was to determine how his background in science and engineering could be brought to bear, in some useful way, on the core issues that determine the success or failure of corporations. Forrester's insights into the common foundations that underlie engineering, which led to the creation of system dynamics, were triggered, to a large degree, by his involvement with managers at General Electric (GE) during the mid-1950s. At that time, the managers at GE were perplexed because employment at their appliance plants in Kentucky exhibited a significant three-year cycle. The business cycle was judged to be an insufficient explanation for the employment instability. From hand simulations (or calculations) of the stock-flow-feedback structure of the GE plants, which included the existing corporate decision-making structure for hiring and layoffs, Forrester was able to show how the instability in GE employment was due to the internal structure of the firm and not to an external force such as the business cycle. These hand simulations were the start of the field of system dynamics.

系统动力学是在20世纪50年代中期由麻省理工学院的 Jay Forrester 教授创立的。1956年，Forrester 接受了新成立的 MIT斯隆管理学院的教授职位。他最初的目标是确定如何利用他在科学和工程方面的背景，以某种有用的方式，在决定企业成败的核心问题上发挥作用。弗雷斯特对工程学背后的共同基础的洞察，导致了系统动力学的产生，在很大程度上，是由于他在上世纪50年代中期与通用电气(GE)的经理们的合作而触发的。当时，通用电气的经理们感到困惑，因为肯塔基州电器厂的就业周期显著为三年。商业周期被认为不足以解释就业的不稳定性。通过手工模拟(或计算)通用电气工厂的股票流量反馈结构，包括现有的企业决策结构的雇用和裁员，Forrester 能够显示通用电气就业的不稳定性是由于公司的内部结构，而不是由于商业周期等外部力量。这些手工仿真是系统动力学领域的开端。

系统动力学是在20世纪50年代中期由麻省理工学院的 Jay Forrester 教授创立的。1956年，Forrester 接受了新成立的 MIT斯隆管理学院授予的教授职位。他最初的目标是确定如何利用他在科学和工程方面的背景，以某种有用的方式，在决定企业成败的核心问题上发挥作用。Jay Forrester 对工程学背后的共同基础的洞察，导致了系统动力学的产生，在很大程度上，是由于他在20世纪50年代中期与通用电气 ''General Electric，GE''的经理们的合作而触发的。当时，通用电气的经理们感到困惑，因为很明显肯塔基州电器厂的就业周期为三年。商业周期被认为不足以解释就业的不稳定性。通过手工模拟（或计算）通用电气工厂的股票流量反馈结构，包括现有的企业决策结构的雇用和裁员，Forrester 能够显示通用电气就业的不稳定性是由于公司的内部结构，而不是由于商业周期等外部力量。这些手工仿真是系统动力学领域的开端。