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| − | ==概览 Overview== | + | ==概览== |
| | + | 系统动力学是构建、理解和讨论复杂问题的一种方法论和数学建模技术。这一领域最初是在20世纪50年代发展起来的，目的是帮助企业管理者提高对工业过程的理解，现在被公共和私营部门用于政策分析和设计问题上。<ref name ="UDE"/> |
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| − | System dynamics is a methodology and mathematical modeling technique to frame, understand, and discuss complex issues and problems. Originally developed in the 1950s to help corporate managers improve their understanding of industrial processes, SD is currently being used throughout the public and private sector for policy analysis and design.<ref name ="UDE"/>
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| − | System dynamics is a methodology and mathematical modeling technique to frame, understand, and discuss complex issues and problems. Originally developed in the 1950s to help corporate managers improve their understanding of industrial processes, SD is currently being used throughout the public and private sector for policy analysis and design.
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| − | 系统动力学是构建、理解和讨论复杂问题的一种方法论和数学建模技术。这一领域最初是在20世纪50年代发展起来的，目的是帮助企业管理者提高对工业过程的理解，现在被公共和私营部门用于政策分析和设计问题上。
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| − | Convenient [[graphical user interface]] (GUI) system dynamics software developed into user friendly versions by the 1990s and have been applied to diverse systems. SD models solve the problem of simultaneity (mutual causation) by updating all variables in small time increments with positive and negative feedbacks and time delays structuring the interactions and control. The best known SD model is probably the 1972 ''[[The Limits to Growth]]''. This model forecast that exponential growth of population and capital, with finite resource sources and sinks and perception delays, would lead to economic collapse during the 21st century under a wide variety of growth scenarios.
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| − | Convenient graphical user interface (GUI) system dynamics software developed into user friendly versions by the 1990s and have been applied to diverse systems. SD models solve the problem of simultaneity (mutual causation) by updating all variables in small time increments with positive and negative feedbacks and time delays structuring the interactions and control. The best known SD model is probably the 1972 The Limits to Growth. This model forecast that exponential growth of population and capital, with finite resource sources and sinks and perception delays, would lead to economic collapse during the 21st century under a wide variety of growth scenarios.
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| | 20世纪90年代推出了更方便用户使用的版本——具有'''图形用户界面 GUI'''系统动力学软件，并应用于各种系统。SD模型通过以小时间增量更新所有变量，用正反馈和负反馈以及时间延迟来构造交互和控制，从而解决了同时性（互为因果）的问题。最著名的SD模型可能是1972年的”增长极限“模型。该模型预测，随着人口和资本的指数增长，在有限的资源和汇以及感知延迟的情况下，将导致21世纪各种增长情景下的经济崩溃。 | | 20世纪90年代推出了更方便用户使用的版本——具有'''图形用户界面 GUI'''系统动力学软件，并应用于各种系统。SD模型通过以小时间增量更新所有变量，用正反馈和负反馈以及时间延迟来构造交互和控制，从而解决了同时性（互为因果）的问题。最著名的SD模型可能是1972年的”增长极限“模型。该模型预测，随着人口和资本的指数增长，在有限的资源和汇以及感知延迟的情况下，将导致21世纪各种增长情景下的经济崩溃。 |
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| − | | + | 系统动力学是[[系统理论]]的一个方面，是理解复杂系统动态行为的一种方法。该方法的基础是认识到，任何系统的结构，其组成部分之间的许多循环的、互锁的、有时是时间延迟的关系，在决定其行为方面往往与单个组件本身一样重要。例如[[混沌理论]]和[[社会动力学]]。它还声称，由于在元素的属性中往往存在无法找到的整体属性，在某些情况下，整体的行为不能用部分的行为来解释。 |
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| − | System dynamics is an aspect of [[systems theory]] as a method to understand the dynamic behavior of complex systems. The basis of the method is the recognition that the structure of any system, the many circular, interlocking, sometimes time-delayed relationships among its components, is often just as important in determining its behavior as the individual components themselves. Examples are [[chaos theory]] and [[social dynamics]]. It is also claimed that because there are often properties-of-the-whole which cannot be found among the properties-of-the-elements, in some cases the behavior of the whole cannot be explained in terms of the behavior of the parts.
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| − | System dynamics is an aspect of systems theory as a method to understand the dynamic behavior of complex systems. The basis of the method is the recognition that the structure of any system, the many circular, interlocking, sometimes time-delayed relationships among its components, is often just as important in determining its behavior as the individual components themselves. Examples are chaos theory and social dynamics. It is also claimed that because there are often properties-of-the-whole which cannot be found among the properties-of-the-elements, in some cases the behavior of the whole cannot be explained in terms of the behavior of the parts.
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| − | 系统动力学是系统理论的一个方面，是理解复杂系统动态行为的一种方法。该方法的基础是认识到，任何系统的结构，其组成部分之间的许多循环的、互锁的、有时是时间延迟的关系，在决定其行为方面往往与单个组件本身一样重要。例如混沌理论和社会动力学。它还声称，由于在元素的属性中往往存在无法找到的整体属性，在某些情况下，整体的行为不能用部分的行为来解释。
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| | ==历史 History== | | ==历史 History== |