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| | ==历史 History== | | ==历史 History== |
| − | | + | 系统动力学是在20世纪50年代中期由麻省理工学院的 Jay Forrester 教授创立的。<ref>Forrester, Jay (1971). Counterintuitive behavior of social systems. Technology Review 73(3): 52–68</ref> 1956年，Forrester 接受了新成立的 MIT斯隆管理学院授予的教授职位。他最初的目标是确定如何利用他在科学和工程方面的背景，以某种有用的方式，在决定企业成败的核心问题上发挥作用。Jay Forrester 对工程学背后的共同基础的洞察，导致了系统动力学的产生，在很大程度上，是由于他在20世纪50年代中期与通用电气 ''General Electric，GE''的经理们的合作而触发的。当时，通用电气的经理们感到困惑，因为很明显肯塔基州电器厂的就业周期为三年。商业周期被认为不足以解释就业的不稳定性。通过手工模拟（或计算）通用电气工厂的股票流量反馈结构，包括现有的企业决策结构的雇用和裁员，Forrester 能够显示通用电气就业的不稳定性是由于公司的内部结构，而不是由于商业周期等外部力量。这些手工仿真是系统动力学领域的开端。<ref name="UDE">Michael J. Radzicki and Robert A. Taylor (2008). [http://www.systemdynamics.org/DL-IntroSysDyn/start.htm "Origin of System Dynamics: Jay W. Forrester and the History of System Dynamics"]. In: ''U.S. Department of Energy's Introduction to System Dynamics''. Retrieved 23 October 2008.</ref> |
| − | System dynamics was created during the mid-1950s<ref>Forrester, Jay (1971). Counterintuitive behavior of social systems. Technology Review 73(3): 52–68</ref> by Professor [[Jay Forrester]] of the [[Massachusetts Institute of Technology]]. In 1956, Forrester accepted a professorship in the newly formed [[MIT Sloan School of Management]]. His initial goal was to determine how his background in science and engineering could be brought to bear, in some useful way, on the core issues that determine the success or failure of corporations. Forrester's insights into the common foundations that underlie engineering, which led to the creation of system dynamics, were triggered, to a large degree, by his involvement with managers at [[General Electric]] (GE) during the mid-1950s. At that time, the managers at GE were perplexed because employment at their appliance plants in Kentucky exhibited a significant three-year cycle. The [[business cycle]] was judged to be an insufficient explanation for the employment instability. From hand simulations (or calculations) of the stock-flow-feedback structure of the GE plants, which included the existing corporate decision-making structure for hiring and layoffs, Forrester was able to show how the instability in GE employment was due to the internal structure of the firm and not to an external force such as the business cycle. These hand simulations were the start of the field of system dynamics.<ref name="UDE">Michael J. Radzicki and Robert A. Taylor (2008). [http://www.systemdynamics.org/DL-IntroSysDyn/start.htm "Origin of System Dynamics: Jay W. Forrester and the History of System Dynamics"]. In: ''U.S. Department of Energy's Introduction to System Dynamics''. Retrieved 23 October 2008.</ref>
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| − | System dynamics was created during the mid-1950s by Professor Jay Forrester of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In 1956, Forrester accepted a professorship in the newly formed MIT Sloan School of Management. His initial goal was to determine how his background in science and engineering could be brought to bear, in some useful way, on the core issues that determine the success or failure of corporations. Forrester's insights into the common foundations that underlie engineering, which led to the creation of system dynamics, were triggered, to a large degree, by his involvement with managers at General Electric (GE) during the mid-1950s. At that time, the managers at GE were perplexed because employment at their appliance plants in Kentucky exhibited a significant three-year cycle. The business cycle was judged to be an insufficient explanation for the employment instability. From hand simulations (or calculations) of the stock-flow-feedback structure of the GE plants, which included the existing corporate decision-making structure for hiring and layoffs, Forrester was able to show how the instability in GE employment was due to the internal structure of the firm and not to an external force such as the business cycle. These hand simulations were the start of the field of system dynamics.
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| − | 系统动力学是在20世纪50年代中期由麻省理工学院的 Jay Forrester 教授创立的。1956年，Forrester 接受了新成立的 MIT斯隆管理学院授予的教授职位。他最初的目标是确定如何利用他在科学和工程方面的背景，以某种有用的方式，在决定企业成败的核心问题上发挥作用。Jay Forrester 对工程学背后的共同基础的洞察，导致了系统动力学的产生，在很大程度上，是由于他在20世纪50年代中期与通用电气 ''General Electric，GE''的经理们的合作而触发的。当时，通用电气的经理们感到困惑，因为很明显肯塔基州电器厂的就业周期为三年。商业周期被认为不足以解释就业的不稳定性。通过手工模拟（或计算）通用电气工厂的股票流量反馈结构，包括现有的企业决策结构的雇用和裁员，Forrester 能够显示通用电气就业的不稳定性是由于公司的内部结构，而不是由于商业周期等外部力量。这些手工仿真是系统动力学领域的开端。
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| − | During the late 1950s and early 1960s, Forrester and a team of graduate students moved the emerging field of system dynamics from the hand-simulation stage to the formal [[computer modeling]] stage. [[Richard Bennett (computer scientist)|Richard Bennett]] created the first system dynamics computer modeling language called SIMPLE (Simulation of Industrial Management Problems with Lots of Equations) in the spring of 1958. In 1959, [[Phyllis Fox]] and [[Alexander Pugh]] wrote the first version of [[DYNAMO (programming language)|DYNAMO]] (DYNAmic MOdels), an improved version of SIMPLE, and the system dynamics language became the industry standard for over thirty years. Forrester published the first, and still classic, book in the field titled ''Industrial Dynamics'' in 1961.<ref name ="UDE"/>
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| − | During the late 1950s and early 1960s, Forrester and a team of graduate students moved the emerging field of system dynamics from the hand-simulation stage to the formal computer modeling stage. Richard Bennett created the first system dynamics computer modeling language called SIMPLE (Simulation of Industrial Management Problems with Lots of Equations) in the spring of 1958. In 1959, Phyllis Fox and Alexander Pugh wrote the first version of DYNAMO (DYNAmic MOdels), an improved version of SIMPLE, and the system dynamics language became the industry standard for over thirty years. Forrester published the first, and still classic, book in the field titled Industrial Dynamics in 1961.
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| | + | 从1950年代后期到1960年代后期，系统动力学几乎完全适用于公司 / 管理问题。然而，在1968年，一个意想不到的事件使这个领域的范围扩大到公司模型之外。波士顿前市长约翰 · f · 柯林斯被任命为麻省理工学院城市事务的客座教授。柯林斯-福斯特合作的成果是出版了一本名为《城市动力学》的书。本书中提出的城市动力学模型是系统动力学的第一个主要的非企业应用。<ref name ="UDE"/> |
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| − | From the late 1950s to the late 1960s, system dynamics was applied almost exclusively to corporate/managerial problems. In 1968, however, an unexpected occurrence caused the field to broaden beyond corporate modeling. [[John F. Collins]], the former mayor of Boston, was appointed a visiting professor of Urban Affairs at MIT. The result of the Collins-Forrester collaboration was a book titled ''Urban Dynamics''. The [[Urban Dynamics]] model presented in the book was the first major non-corporate application of system dynamics.<ref name ="UDE"/>
| + | 系统动力学的第一个非公司领域的应用出现之后，紧随其后出现了第二个主要的非公司应用。1970年，Jay Forrester 应罗马俱乐部的邀请参加了在瑞士伯尔尼举行的一次会议。罗马俱乐部是一个致力于解决其成员所描述的”人类困境”的组织，即今后某个时候可能出现的全球危机，因为世界人口呈指数增长，对地球的承载能力（可再生和不可再生资源的来源及其处理污染物的汇）提出了要求。在伯尔尼会议上，Forrester 被问及是否可以用系统动力学来解决人类的困境。当然，他的回答是可以。在从伯尔尼会议回来的飞机上，弗雷斯特创建了世界社会经济系统系统动力学模型的初稿。他把这个模型叫做 WORLD1。回到美国后，弗雷斯特精炼了 WORLD1，为罗马俱乐部成员访问麻省理工学院做准备，称这个模型为 WORLD2的改进版本，并在一本名为《世界动力学》的书中出版了 WORLD2。<ref name ="UDE"/> |
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| − | From the late 1950s to the late 1960s, system dynamics was applied almost exclusively to corporate/managerial problems. In 1968, however, an unexpected occurrence caused the field to broaden beyond corporate modeling. John F. Collins, the former mayor of Boston, was appointed a visiting professor of Urban Affairs at MIT. The result of the Collins-Forrester collaboration was a book titled Urban Dynamics. The Urban Dynamics model presented in the book was the first major non-corporate application of system dynamics.
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| − | 从1950年代后期到1960年代后期，系统动力学几乎完全适用于公司 / 管理问题。然而，在1968年，一个意想不到的事件使这个领域的范围扩大到公司模型之外。波士顿前市长约翰 · f · 柯林斯被任命为麻省理工学院城市事务的客座教授。柯林斯-福斯特合作的成果是出版了一本名为《城市动力学》的书。本书中提出的城市动力学模型是系统动力学的第一个主要的非企业应用。
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| − | The second major noncorporate application of system dynamics came shortly after the first. In 1970, Jay Forrester was invited by the [[Club of Rome]] to a meeting in Bern, Switzerland. The Club of Rome is an organization devoted to solving what its members describe as the "predicament of mankind"—that is, the global crisis that may appear sometime in the future, due to the demands being placed on the Earth's [[carrying capacity]] (its sources of renewable and nonrenewable resources and its sinks for the disposal of pollutants) by the world's exponentially growing population. At the Bern meeting, Forrester was asked if system dynamics could be used to address the predicament of mankind. His answer, of course, was that it could. On the plane back from the Bern meeting, Forrester created the first draft of a system dynamics model of the world's socioeconomic system. He called this model WORLD1. Upon his return to the United States, Forrester refined WORLD1 in preparation for a visit to MIT by members of the Club of Rome. Forrester called the refined version of the model WORLD2. Forrester published WORLD2 in a book titled [[World Dynamics]].<ref name ="UDE"/>
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| − | The second major noncorporate application of system dynamics came shortly after the first. In 1970, Jay Forrester was invited by the Club of Rome to a meeting in Bern, Switzerland. The Club of Rome is an organization devoted to solving what its members describe as the "predicament of mankind"—that is, the global crisis that may appear sometime in the future, due to the demands being placed on the Earth's carrying capacity (its sources of renewable and nonrenewable resources and its sinks for the disposal of pollutants) by the world's exponentially growing population. At the Bern meeting, Forrester was asked if system dynamics could be used to address the predicament of mankind. His answer, of course, was that it could. On the plane back from the Bern meeting, Forrester created the first draft of a system dynamics model of the world's socioeconomic system. He called this model WORLD1. Upon his return to the United States, Forrester refined WORLD1 in preparation for a visit to MIT by members of the Club of Rome. Forrester called the refined version of the model WORLD2. Forrester published WORLD2 in a book titled World Dynamics.
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| − | 系统动力学的第一个非公司领域的应用出现之后，紧随其后出现了第二个主要的非公司应用。1970年，Jay Forrester 应罗马俱乐部的邀请参加了在瑞士伯尔尼举行的一次会议。罗马俱乐部是一个致力于解决其成员所描述的”人类困境”的组织，即今后某个时候可能出现的全球危机，因为世界人口呈指数增长，对地球的承载能力（可再生和不可再生资源的来源及其处理污染物的汇）提出了要求。在伯尔尼会议上，Forrester 被问及是否可以用系统动力学来解决人类的困境。当然，他的回答是可以。在从伯尔尼会议回来的飞机上，弗雷斯特创建了世界社会经济系统系统动力学模型的初稿。他把这个模型叫做 WORLD1。回到美国后，弗雷斯特精炼了 WORLD1，为罗马俱乐部成员访问麻省理工学院做准备，称这个模型为 WORLD2的改进版本，并在一本名为《世界动力学》的书中出版了 WORLD2。
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| | ==系统动力学主题 Topics in systems dynamics== | | ==系统动力学主题 Topics in systems dynamics== |