90
个编辑
更改
小第412行：
第412行： − − |publisher = Johns Hopkins University Press − − |location = Baltimore, MD − − |url = https://books.google.com/books?id=sExvSbe9MSsC − − |ref = harv
→Systemic risk
系统性风险是指一个放大或杠杆或正反馈过程给系统带来的风险。这通常是未知的，在某些条件下，这个过程会成倍放大，并迅速导致破坏性或混乱的行为。 庞氏骗局就是正反馈系统的一个很好的例子：来自新投资者的资金被用来支付异常高的回报，反过来又吸引了更多的新投资者，导致快速增长走向崩溃。W.布赖恩•阿瑟W. Brian Arthur 也对经济中的正反馈进行了研究和著述（如W. Brian Arthur，1990）。海曼•明斯基 Hyman Minsky提出了一个理论，认为某些信用扩张行为会使市场经济变成一个 "偏差放大系统"，从而可能会突然崩溃，有时被称为 "明斯基时刻"。
系统性风险是指一个放大或杠杆或正反馈过程给系统带来的风险。这通常是未知的，在某些条件下，这个过程会成倍放大，并迅速导致破坏性或混乱的行为。 庞氏骗局就是正反馈系统的一个很好的例子：来自新投资者的资金被用来支付异常高的回报，反过来又吸引了更多的新投资者，导致快速增长走向崩溃。W.布赖恩•阿瑟W. Brian Arthur 也对经济中的正反馈进行了研究和著述（如W. Brian Arthur，1990）。海曼•明斯基 Hyman Minsky提出了一个理论，认为某些信用扩张行为会使市场经济变成一个 "偏差放大系统"，从而可能会突然崩溃，有时被称为 "明斯基时刻"。
Simple systems that clearly separate the inputs from the outputs are not prone to systemic risk. This risk is more likely as the complexity of the system increases, because it becomes more difficult to see or analyze all the possible combinations of variables in the system even under careful stress testing conditions. The more efficient a complex system is, the more likely it is to be prone to systemic risks, because it takes only a small amount of deviation to disrupt the system. Therefore, well-designed complex systems generally have built-in features to avoid this condition, such as a small amount of friction, or resistance, or inertia, or time delay to decouple the outputs from the inputs within the system. These factors amount to an inefficiency, but they are necessary to avoid instabilities.
Simple systems that clearly separate the inputs from the outputs are not prone to systemic risk. This risk is more likely as the complexity of the system increases, because it becomes more difficult to see or analyze all the possible combinations of variables in the system even under careful stress testing conditions. The more efficient a complex system is, the more likely it is to be prone to systemic risks, because it takes only a small amount of deviation to disrupt the system. Therefore, well-designed complex systems generally have built-in features to avoid this condition, such as a small amount of friction, or resistance, or inertia, or time delay to decouple the outputs from the inputs within the system. These factors amount to an inefficiency, but they are necessary to avoid instabilities.
输入和输出明确分开的简单系统不容易发生系统性风险。 随着系统复杂性的增加，这种风险更容易发生，因为即使在仔细的压力测试条件下，也更难看到或分析系统中所有可能的变量组合。 一个复杂系统的效率越高，就越容易发生系统性风险，因为只需要很小的偏差就可以破坏系统。 因此，设计良好的复杂系统一般都会有一些内在的功能来避免这种情况的发生，比如在系统内有少量的摩擦力，或阻力，或惯性，或时间延迟来使输出与输入脱钩。这些因素相当于一种低效率，但它们是避免不稳定的必要条件。
输入和输出明确分开的简单系统不容易发生系统性风险。 随着系统复杂性的增加，这种风险更容易发生，因为即使在仔细的压力测试条件下，也更难看到或分析系统中所有可能的变量组合。 一个复杂系统的效率越高，就越容易发生系统性风险，因为只需要很小的偏差就可以破坏系统。 因此，设计良好的复杂系统一般都会有一些内在的功能来避免这种情况的发生，比如在系统内有少量的摩擦力，或阻力，或惯性，或时间延迟来使输出与输入脱钩。这些因素相当于一种低效率，但它们是避免不稳定的必要条件。
The 2010 Flash Crash incident was blamed on the practice of high-frequency trading (HFT), although whether HFT really increases systemic risk remains controversial.
The 2010 Flash Crash incident was blamed on the practice of high-frequency trading (HFT), although whether HFT really increases systemic risk remains controversial.