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第421行： − ==== Human Population and the Environmental Crisis ====+
无编辑摘要
一个老式的再生无线电接收器。由于使用正反馈的控制，真空管或阀门（中心）就可以产生足够的放大效果。
一个老式的再生无线电接收器。由于使用正反馈的控制，真空管或阀门（中心）就可以产生足够的放大效果。
[[Regenerative circuit]]s were invented and patented in 1914<ref>{{cite patent |inventor-last=Armstrong |inventor-first=E. H. |country-code=US |patent-number=1113149 |title=Wireless receiving system |date=1914}}</ref> for the amplification and reception of very weak radio signals. Carefully controlled positive feedback around a single [[transistor]] amplifier can multiply its [[Gain (electronics)|gain]] by 1,000 or more.Therefore, a signal can be amplified 20,000 or even 100,000 times in one stage, that would normally have a gain of only 20 to 50. The problem with regenerative amplifiers working at these very high gains is that they easily become unstable and start to oscillate. The radio operator has to be prepared to tweak the amount of feedback fairly continuously for good reception. Modern radio receivers use the [[superheterodyne]] design, with many more amplification stages, but much more stable operation and no positive feedback.
[[Regenerative circuit]]s were invented and patented in 1914<ref>{{cite patent |inventor-last=Armstrong |inventor-first=E. H. |country-code=US |patent-number=1113149 |title=Wireless receiving system |date=1914}}</ref> for the amplification and reception of very weak radio signals. Carefully controlled positive feedback around a single [[transistor]] amplifier can multiply its [[Gain (electronics)|gain]] by 1,000 or more.<ref>{{cite web|last=Kitchin|first=Charles|title=A Short Wave Regenerative Receiver Project|url=http://www.electronics-tutorials.com/receivers/regen-radio-receiver.htm|accessdate=23 September 2010|url-status=live|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20100710100031/http://www.electronics-tutorials.com/receivers/regen-radio-receiver.htm|archivedate=10 July 2010}}</ref> Therefore, a signal can be amplified 20,000 or even 100,000 times in one stage, that would normally have a gain of only 20 to 50. The problem with regenerative amplifiers working at these very high gains is that they easily become unstable and start to oscillate. The radio operator has to be prepared to tweak the amount of feedback fairly continuously for good reception. Modern radio receivers use the [[superheterodyne]] design, with many more amplification stages, but much more stable operation and no positive feedback.
Regenerative circuits were invented and patented in 1914 for the amplification and reception of very weak radio signals. Carefully controlled positive feedback around a single transistor amplifier can multiply its gain by 1,000 or more. Therefore, a signal can be amplified 20,000 or even 100,000 times in one stage, that would normally have a gain of only 20 to 50. The problem with regenerative amplifiers working at these very high gains is that they easily become unstable and start to oscillate. The radio operator has to be prepared to tweak the amount of feedback fairly continuously for good reception. Modern radio receivers use the superheterodyne design, with many more amplification stages, but much more stable operation and no positive feedback.
Regenerative circuits were invented and patented in 1914 for the amplification and reception of very weak radio signals. Carefully controlled positive feedback around a single transistor amplifier can multiply its gain by 1,000 or more. Therefore, a signal can be amplified 20,000 or even 100,000 times in one stage, that would normally have a gain of only 20 to 50. The problem with regenerative amplifiers working at these very high gains is that they easily become unstable and start to oscillate. The radio operator has to be prepared to tweak the amount of feedback fairly continuously for good reception. Modern radio receivers use the superheterodyne design, with many more amplification stages, but much more stable operation and no positive feedback.
在再生无线电电路中能爆发出的振荡被用于电子振荡器中。通过使用调谐电路或压电晶体(常见的是石英)，经正反馈放大后的信号仍然是线性的、正弦的。这种谐波振荡器有几种设计，包括阿姆斯特朗振荡器、哈特利振荡器、科尔皮茨振荡器和维恩桥振荡器。它们都是利用正反馈来产生振荡。
在再生无线电电路中能爆发出的振荡被用于电子振荡器中。通过使用调谐电路或压电晶体(常见的是石英)，经正反馈放大后的信号仍然是线性的、正弦的。这种谐波振荡器有几种设计，包括阿姆斯特朗振荡器、哈特利振荡器、科尔皮茨振荡器和维恩桥振荡器。它们都是利用正反馈来产生振荡。
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Many electronic circuits, especially amplifiers, incorporate negative feedback. This reduces their gain, but improves their linearity, input impedance, output impedance, and bandwidth, and stabilises all of these parameters, including the closed-loop gain. These parameters also become less dependent on the details of the amplifying device itself, and more dependent on the feedback components, which are less likely to vary with manufacturing tolerance, age and temperature. The difference between positive and negative feedback for AC signals is one of phase: if the signal is fed back out of phase, the feedback is negative and if it is in phase the feedback is positive. One problem for amplifier designers who use negative feedback is that some of the components of the circuit will introduce phase shift in the feedback path. If there is a frequency (usually a high frequency) where the phase shift reaches 180°, then the designer must ensure that the amplifier gain at that frequency is very low (usually by low-pass filtering). If the loop gain (the product of the amplifier gain and the extent of the positive feedback) at any frequency is greater than one, then the amplifier will oscillate at that frequency (Barkhausen stability criterion). Such oscillations are sometimes called parasitic oscillations. An amplifier that is stable in one set of conditions can break into parasitic oscillation in another. This may be due to changes in temperature, supply voltage, adjustment of front-panel controls, or even the proximity of a person or other conductive item.
Many electronic circuits, especially amplifiers, incorporate negative feedback. This reduces their gain, but improves their linearity, input impedance, output impedance, and bandwidth, and stabilises all of these parameters, including the closed-loop gain. These parameters also become less dependent on the details of the amplifying device itself, and more dependent on the feedback components, which are less likely to vary with manufacturing tolerance, age and temperature. The difference between positive and negative feedback for AC signals is one of phase: if the signal is fed back out of phase, the feedback is negative and if it is in phase the feedback is positive. One problem for amplifier designers who use negative feedback is that some of the components of the circuit will introduce phase shift in the feedback path. If there is a frequency (usually a high frequency) where the phase shift reaches 180°, then the designer must ensure that the amplifier gain at that frequency is very low (usually by low-pass filtering). If the loop gain (the product of the amplifier gain and the extent of the positive feedback) at any frequency is greater than one, then the amplifier will oscillate at that frequency (Barkhausen stability criterion). Such oscillations are sometimes called parasitic oscillations. An amplifier that is stable in one set of conditions can break into parasitic oscillation in another. This may be due to changes in temperature, supply voltage, adjustment of front-panel controls, or even the proximity of a person or other conductive item.
电子触发器，或“锁存器” ，或“双稳态多谐振荡器” ，是一种由于高正反馈而不稳定的平衡或中间状态的电路。这样的双稳态电路是一位电子存储器的基础。 触发器使用一对放大器、晶体管或逻辑门相互连接，使正反馈在输入信号被移除后，电路的状态维持在两种非平衡稳定状态中的一种，直到施加一个合适的替代信号来改变状态。计算机随机存取存储器(RAM)可以用这种方法制作，每位存储器有一个锁存电路。
电子触发器，或“锁存器” ，或“双稳态多谐振荡器” ，是一种由于高正反馈而不稳定的平衡或中间状态的电路。这样的双稳态电路是一位电子存储器的基础。 触发器使用一对放大器、晶体管或逻辑门相互连接，使正反馈在输入信号被移除后，电路的状态维持在两种非平衡稳定状态中的一种，直到施加一个合适的替代信号来改变状态。计算机随机存取存储器(RAM)可以用这种方法制作，每位存储器有一个锁存电路。
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Thermal runaway occurs in electronic systems because some aspect of a circuit is allowed to pass more current when it gets hotter, then the hotter it gets, the more current it passes, which heats it some more and so it passes yet more current. The effects are usually catastrophic for the device in question. If devices have to be used near to their maximum power-handling capacity, and thermal runaway is possible or likely under certain conditions, improvements can usually be achieved by careful design.
Thermal runaway occurs in electronic systems because some aspect of a circuit is allowed to pass more current when it gets hotter, then the hotter it gets, the more current it passes, which heats it some more and so it passes yet more current. The effects are usually catastrophic for the device in question. If devices have to be used near to their maximum power-handling capacity, and thermal runaway is possible or likely under certain conditions, improvements can usually be achieved by careful design.
显生宙，生物多样性显示出稳定但不单调的增加，从接近零到几千属。
显生宙，生物多样性显示出稳定但不单调的增加，从接近零到几千属。
It has been shown that changes in [[biodiversity]] through the [[Phanerozoic]] correlate much better with hyperbolic model (widely used in [[demography]] and [[macrosociology]]) than with [[Exponential growth|exponential]] and [[Logistic function|logistic]] models (traditionally used in [[population biology]] and extensively applied to [[fossil]] [[biodiversity]] as well). The latter models imply that changes in diversity are guided by a first-order positive feedback (more ancestors, more descendants) and/or a [[negative feedback]] arising from resource limitation. Hyperbolic model implies a second-order positive feedback. The hyperbolic pattern of the [[world population growth]] has been demonstrated (see below) to arise from a second-order positive feedback between the population size and the rate of [[technological growth]]. The hyperbolic character of biodiversity growth can be similarly accounted for by a positive feedback between the diversity and community structure complexity. It has been suggested that the similarity between the curves of [[biodiversity]] and human population probably comes from the fact that both are derived from the interference of the hyperbolic trend (produced by the positive feedback) with cyclical and stochastic dynamics.
It has been shown that changes in [[biodiversity]] through the [[Phanerozoic]] correlate much better with hyperbolic model (widely used in [[demography]] and [[macrosociology]]) than with [[Exponential growth|exponential]] and [[Logistic function|logistic]] models (traditionally used in [[population biology]] and extensively applied to [[fossil]] [[biodiversity]] as well). The latter models imply that changes in diversity are guided by a first-order positive feedback (more ancestors, more descendants) and/or a [[negative feedback]] arising from resource limitation. Hyperbolic model implies a second-order positive feedback. The hyperbolic pattern of the [[world population growth]] has been demonstrated (see below) to arise from a second-order positive feedback between the population size and the rate of [[technological growth]]. The hyperbolic character of biodiversity growth can be similarly accounted for by a positive feedback between the diversity and community structure complexity. It has been suggested that the similarity between the curves of [[biodiversity]] and human population probably comes from the fact that both are derived from the interference of the hyperbolic trend (produced by the positive feedback) with cyclical and stochastic dynamics.<ref>Markov A., [[Andrey Korotayev|Korotayev A.]] [https://archive.today/20120630063924/http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B83WC-4N0HJMK-2&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=74a80d7c55ff987c9fc8d9c7963feab9 "Phanerozoic marine biodiversity follows a hyperbolic trend." [[Palaeoworld]]. Volume 16, Issue 4, December 2007, Pages 311-318]</ref><ref>{{cite journal | last1 = Markov | first1 = A. | last2 = Korotayev | first2 = A. | year = 2008 | title = Hyperbolic growth of marine and continental biodiversity through the Phanerozoic and community evolution | url = http://elementy.ru/genbio/abstracts?artid=177 | journal = Journal of General Biology | volume = 69 | issue = 3 | pages = 175–194 | pmid = 18677962 | url-status = live | archiveurl = https://web.archive.org/web/20091225000305/http://elementy.ru/genbio/abstracts?artid=177 | archivedate = 2009-12-25 }}</ref>
研究表明，在显生宙，生物多样性的变化与双曲模型（广泛用于人口学和宏观社会学）的相关性要比指数模型和逻辑模型（传统上用于人口生物学，并广泛用于生物多样性化石）的相关性好得多。后者的模型意味着多样性的变化是由一阶正反馈（更多的祖先，更多的后代）和/或资源限制产生的负反馈所引导的。双曲模型意味着二阶正反馈。世界人口增长的双曲线模式已被证明（见下文），源于人口数量与技术增长速度之间的二阶正反馈。生物多样性增长的双曲特征同样可以由多样性与群落结构复杂性之间的正反馈来解释。有人认为，生物多样性和人口曲线之间的相似性可能来自这样一个事实，即两者都是由双曲趋势(由正反馈产生)与周期性和随机性动态的干扰而产生的。
研究表明，在显生宙，生物多样性的变化与双曲模型（广泛用于人口学和宏观社会学）的相关性要比指数模型和逻辑模型（传统上用于人口生物学，并广泛用于生物多样性化石）的相关性好得多。后者的模型意味着多样性的变化是由一阶正反馈（更多的祖先，更多的后代）和/或资源限制产生的负反馈所引导的。双曲模型意味着二阶正反馈。世界人口增长的双曲线模式已被证明（见下文），源于人口数量与技术增长速度之间的二阶正反馈。生物多样性增长的双曲特征同样可以由多样性与群落结构复杂性之间的正反馈来解释。有人认为，生物多样性和人口曲线之间的相似性可能来自这样一个事实，即两者都是由双曲趋势(由正反馈产生)与周期性和随机性动态的干扰而产生的。
系统性风险是指一个放大或杠杆或正反馈过程给系统带来的风险。这通常是未知的，在某些条件下，这个过程会成倍放大，并迅速导致破坏性或混乱的行为。 庞氏骗局就是正反馈系统的一个很好的例子：来自新投资者的资金被用来支付异常高的回报，反过来又吸引了更多的新投资者，导致快速增长走向崩溃。W.布赖恩•阿瑟W. Brian Arthur 也对经济中的正反馈进行了研究和著述（如W. Brian Arthur，1990）。海曼•明斯基 Hyman Minsky提出了一个理论，认为某些信用扩张行为会使市场经济变成一个 "偏差放大系统"，从而可能会突然崩溃，有时被称为 "明斯基时刻"。
系统性风险是指一个放大或杠杆或正反馈过程给系统带来的风险。这通常是未知的，在某些条件下，这个过程会成倍放大，并迅速导致破坏性或混乱的行为。 庞氏骗局就是正反馈系统的一个很好的例子：来自新投资者的资金被用来支付异常高的回报，反过来又吸引了更多的新投资者，导致快速增长走向崩溃。W.布赖恩•阿瑟W. Brian Arthur 也对经济中的正反馈进行了研究和著述（如W. Brian Arthur，1990）。海曼•明斯基 Hyman Minsky提出了一个理论，认为某些信用扩张行为会使市场经济变成一个 "偏差放大系统"，从而可能会突然崩溃，有时被称为 "明斯基时刻"。
Simple systems that clearly separate the inputs from the outputs are not prone to systemic risk. This risk is more likely as the complexity of the system increases, because it becomes more difficult to see or analyze all the possible combinations of variables in the system even under careful stress testing conditions. The more efficient a complex system is, the more likely it is to be prone to systemic risks, because it takes only a small amount of deviation to disrupt the system. Therefore, well-designed complex systems generally have built-in features to avoid this condition, such as a small amount of friction, or resistance, or inertia, or time delay to decouple the outputs from the inputs within the system. These factors amount to an inefficiency, but they are necessary to avoid instabilities.
Simple systems that clearly separate the inputs from the outputs are not prone to systemic risk. This risk is more likely as the complexity of the system increases, because it becomes more difficult to see or analyze all the possible combinations of variables in the system even under careful stress testing conditions. The more efficient a complex system is, the more likely it is to be prone to systemic risks, because it takes only a small amount of deviation to disrupt the system. Therefore, well-designed complex systems generally have built-in features to avoid this condition, such as a small amount of friction, or resistance, or inertia, or time delay to decouple the outputs from the inputs within the system. These factors amount to an inefficiency, but they are necessary to avoid instabilities.
2010年的闪崩事件被归咎于高频交易（HFT）的做法，不过HFT是否真的会增加系统性风险仍然存在争议。
2010年的闪崩事件被归咎于高频交易（HFT）的做法，不过HFT是否真的会增加系统性风险仍然存在争议。
|title= Human Population and the Environmental Crisis
人口与环境危机
人口与环境危机