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The first use of the concept of a "singularity" in the technological context was [[John von Neumann]].<ref>''The Technological Singularity'' by Murray Shanahan, (MIT Press, 2015), page 233</ref> [[Stanislaw Ulam]] reports a discussion with von Neumann "centered on the [[Accelerating change|accelerating progress]] of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential [[Wiktionary:singularity|singularity]] in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue".<ref name="mathematical" /> Subsequent authors have echoed this viewpoint.<ref name="Singularity hypotheses" /><ref name="chalmers">{{Cite journal|last=Chalmers|first=David|date=2010|title=The singularity: a philosophical analysis|url=|journal=Journal of Consciousness Studies|volume=17|issue=9–10|pages=7–65|via=}}</ref>

The first use of the concept of a "singularity" in the technological context was [[John von Neumann]].<ref>''The Technological Singularity'' by Murray Shanahan, (MIT Press, 2015), page 233</ref> [[Stanislaw Ulam]] reports a discussion with von Neumann "centered on the [[Accelerating change|accelerating progress]] of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential [[Wiktionary:singularity|singularity]] in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue".<ref name="mathematical" /> Subsequent authors have echoed this viewpoint.<ref name="Singularity hypotheses" /><ref name="chalmers">{{Cite journal|last=Chalmers|first=David|date=2010|title=The singularity: a philosophical analysis|url=|journal=Journal of Consciousness Studies|volume=17|issue=9–10|pages=7–65|via=}}</ref>

第一次在科技领域使用“奇点”这一概念的是<font color="#ff8000">冯·诺依曼John von Neumann</font>。Stanislaw Ulam 报告一次讨论中，冯·诺依曼说“（奇点的概念）集中在技术的加速进步和人类生活方式的变化上。<font color="#32cd32">这些变化展示出一种接近种群历史[的边界]的一些重要“奇点”的样貌。 which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs</font>我们所熟知的人类事务在种群历史之外将无法继续下去”。

第一次在科技领域使用“奇点”这一概念的是<font color="#ff8000">冯·诺依曼John von Neumann</font>。Stanislaw Ulam 报告一次讨论中，冯·诺依曼说“（奇点的概念）集中在技术的加速进步和人类生活方式的变化上。<font color="#32cd32">这些变化展示出一种接近种群历史[的边界]的一些重要“奇点”的样貌。 which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs</font>我们所熟知的人类事务在种群历史之外将无法继续下去”。

[[I. J. Good]]'s "intelligence explosion" model predicts that a future superintelligence will trigger a singularity.<ref name="vinge1993">Vinge, Vernor. [http://mindstalk.net/vinge/vinge-sing.html "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era"], in ''Vision-21: Interdisciplinary Science and Engineering in the Era of Cyberspace'', G. A. Landis, ed., NASA Publication CP-10129, pp. 11–22, 1993.</ref>

[[I. J. Good]]'s "intelligence explosion" model predicts that a future superintelligence will trigger a singularity.<ref name="vinge1993">Vinge, Vernor. [http://mindstalk.net/vinge/vinge-sing.html "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era"], in ''Vision-21: Interdisciplinary Science and Engineering in the Era of Cyberspace'', G. A. Landis, ed., NASA Publication CP-10129, pp. 11–22, 1993.</ref>

I. J.古德的“智能爆炸”模型预测，未来的超级智能将触发一个奇点。

I. J.古德的“智能爆炸”模型预测，未来的超级智能将触发一个奇点。

The concept and the term "singularity" were popularized by [[Vernor Vinge]] in his 1993 essay ''The Coming Technological Singularity'', in which he wrote that it would signal the end of the human era, as the new superintelligence would continue to upgrade itself and would advance technologically at an incomprehensible rate. He wrote that he would be surprised if it occurred before 2005 or after 2030.<ref name="vinge1993" />

The concept and the term "singularity" were popularized by [[Vernor Vinge]] in his 1993 essay ''The Coming Technological Singularity'', in which he wrote that it would signal the end of the human era, as the new superintelligence would continue to upgrade itself and would advance technologically at an incomprehensible rate. He wrote that he would be surprised if it occurred before 2005 or after 2030.<ref name="vinge1993" />

Four polls of AI researchers, conducted in 2012 and 2013 by Nick Bostrom and Vincent C. Müller, suggested a median probability estimate of 50% that artificial general intelligence (AGI) would be developed by 2040–2050.

Public figures such as [[Stephen Hawking]] and [[Elon Musk]] have expressed concern that full [[artificial intelligence]] (AI) could result in human extinction.<ref>{{cite news|last1=Sparkes|first1=Matthew|title=Top scientists call for caution over artificial intelligence|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/11342200/Top-scientists-call-for-caution-over-artificial-intelligence.html|accessdate=24 April 2015|work=[[The Daily Telegraph|The Telegraph (UK)]]|date=13 January 2015}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-30290540|title=Hawking: AI could end human race|date=2 December 2014|publisher=BBC|accessdate=11 November 2017}}</ref> The consequences of the singularity and its potential benefit or harm to the human race have been intensely debated.

Four polls of AI researchers, conducted in 2012 and 2013 by [[Nick Bostrom]] and [[Vincent C. Müller]], suggested a median probability estimate of 50% that [[artificial general intelligence]] (AGI) would be developed by 2040–2050.<ref name=newyorker>{{cite news|last1=Khatchadourian|first1=Raffi|title=The Doomsday Invention|url=https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/11/23/doomsday-invention-artificial-intelligence-nick-bostrom|accessdate=31 January 2018|work=The New Yorker|date=16 November 2015}}</ref><ref>Müller, V. C., & Bostrom, N. (2016). "Future progress in artificial intelligence: A survey of expert opinion". In V. C. Müller (ed): ''Fundamental issues of artificial intelligence'' (pp. 555–572). Springer, Berlin. http://philpapers.org/rec/MLLFPI</ref>

Four polls of AI researchers, conducted in 2012 and 2013 by [[Nick Bostrom]] and [[Vincent C. Müller]], suggested a median probability estimate of 50% that [[artificial general intelligence]] (AGI) would be developed by 2040–2050.<ref name="newyorker">{{cite news|last1=Khatchadourian|first1=Raffi|title=The Doomsday Invention|url=https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/11/23/doomsday-invention-artificial-intelligence-nick-bostrom|accessdate=31 January 2018|work=The New Yorker|date=16 November 2015}}</ref><ref>Müller, V. C., & Bostrom, N. (2016). "Future progress in artificial intelligence: A survey of expert opinion". In V. C. Müller (ed): ''Fundamental issues of artificial intelligence'' (pp. 555–572). Springer, Berlin. http://philpapers.org/rec/MLLFPI</ref>

[[File:Major Evolutionary Transitions digital.jpg|thumb|upright=1.6|Schematic Timeline of Information and Replicators in the Biosphere: Gillings et al.'s "[[The Major Transitions in Evolution|major evolutionary transitions]]" in information processing.<ref name="InfoBiosphere2016" />|链接=Special:FilePath/Major_Evolutionary_Transitions_digital.jpg]]

[[File:Major Evolutionary Transitions digital.jpg|thumb|upright=1.6|Schematic Timeline of Information and Replicators in the Biosphere: Gillings et al.'s "[[The Major Transitions in Evolution|major evolutionary transitions]]" in information processing.<ref name="InfoBiosphere2016" />|链接=Special:FilePath/Major_Evolutionary_Transitions_digital.jpg]]

[[档案：主要进化过渡数字.jpg|thumb |直立=1.6 |生物圈中信息和复制因子的示意时间线：Gillings等人在信息处理中的“[[进化中的主要转变|主要进化转变]]”。<ref name="InfoBiosphere2016" />]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]]

[[档案：主要进化过渡数字.jpg|thumb |直立=1.6 |生物圈中信息和复制因子的示意时间线：Gillings等人在信息处理中的“[[进化中的主要转变|主要进化转变]]”。<ref name="InfoBiosphere2016" />]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]]

[[File:Biological vs. digital information.jpg|thumb|Amount of digital information worldwide (5{{e|21}} bytes) versus human genome information worldwide (10¹⁹ bytes) in 2014.<ref name="InfoBiosphere2016" />|链接=Special:FilePath/Biological_vs._digital_information.jpg]]

[[File:Biological vs. digital information.jpg|thumb|Amount of digital information worldwide (5{{e|21}} bytes) versus human genome information worldwide (10¹⁹ bytes) in 2014.<ref name="InfoBiosphere2016" />|链接=Special:FilePath/Biological_vs._digital_information.jpg]]

[[档案：生物vs。数字信息.jpg|2014年，全球数字信息总量（5{e | 21}字节）与全球人类基因组信息（10¹⁹字节）的对比。<ref name="InfoBiosphere2016" />]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]]

[[档案：生物vs。数字信息.jpg|2014年，全球数字信息总量（5{e | 21}字节）与全球人类基因组信息（10¹⁹字节）的对比。<ref name="InfoBiosphere2016" />]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]]

While the technological singularity is usually seen as a sudden event, some scholars argue the current speed of change already fits this description.{{citation needed|date=April 2018}}

While the technological singularity is usually seen as a sudden event, some scholars argue the current speed of change already fits this description.{{citation needed|date=April 2018}}