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− | <font color="#ff8000"> 技术奇点Technological singularity</font>——简称<font color="#ff8000"> 奇点 Singularity</font> 是一个假设的时间点。在该时间点上,技术增长变得不可控制和不可逆转,从而导致人类文明发生无法预见的变化。根据奇点假说(也被称为<font color="#ff8000">智能爆炸 intelligence explosion</font>)最流行的版本:一个可升级的智能体终将进入一种自我完善循环的“<font color="#32cd32">失控反应 runaway reaction</font>”。每个新的、更智能的世代将出现得越来越快,导致智能的“爆炸”,并产生一种在实质上远超所有人类智能的超级智能。 | + | <font color="#ff8000"> 技术奇点Technological singularity</font>——简称<font color="#ff8000"> 奇点 Singularity</font> 是一个假设的时间点。在该时间点上,技术增长变得不可控制和不可逆转,从而导致人类文明发生无法预见的变化。根据奇点假说(也被称为<font color="#ff8000">智能爆炸 intelligence explosion</font>)最流行的版本:一个可升级的智能体终将进入一种自我完善循环的“<font color="#ff8000">失控反应 runaway reaction</font>”。每个新的、更智能的世代将出现得越来越快,导致智能的“爆炸”,并产生一种在实质上远超所有人类智能的超级智能。 |
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| The first use of the concept of a "singularity" in the technological context was [[John von Neumann]].<ref>''The Technological Singularity'' by Murray Shanahan, (MIT Press, 2015), page 233</ref> [[Stanislaw Ulam]] reports a discussion with von Neumann "centered on the [[Accelerating change|accelerating progress]] of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential [[Wiktionary:singularity|singularity]] in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue".<ref name="mathematical" /> Subsequent authors have echoed this viewpoint.<ref name="Singularity hypotheses" /><ref name="chalmers">{{Cite journal|last=Chalmers|first=David|date=2010|title=The singularity: a philosophical analysis|url=|journal=Journal of Consciousness Studies|volume=17|issue=9–10|pages=7–65|via=}}</ref> | | The first use of the concept of a "singularity" in the technological context was [[John von Neumann]].<ref>''The Technological Singularity'' by Murray Shanahan, (MIT Press, 2015), page 233</ref> [[Stanislaw Ulam]] reports a discussion with von Neumann "centered on the [[Accelerating change|accelerating progress]] of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential [[Wiktionary:singularity|singularity]] in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue".<ref name="mathematical" /> Subsequent authors have echoed this viewpoint.<ref name="Singularity hypotheses" /><ref name="chalmers">{{Cite journal|last=Chalmers|first=David|date=2010|title=The singularity: a philosophical analysis|url=|journal=Journal of Consciousness Studies|volume=17|issue=9–10|pages=7–65|via=}}</ref> |
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− | 第一次在科技领域使用“奇点”这一概念的是<font color="#ff8000">冯·诺依曼John von Neumann</font>。Stanislaw Ulam 报告一次讨论中,冯·诺依曼说“(奇点的概念)集中在技术的加速进步和人类生活方式的变化上。<font color="#32cd32">这些变化展示出一种接近种群历史[的边界]的一些重要“奇点”的样貌。 which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs</font>我们所熟知的人类事务在种群历史之外将无法继续下去”。 | + | 第一次在科技领域使用“奇点”这一概念的是<font color="#ff8000">冯·诺依曼 John von Neumann</font>。Stanislaw Ulam 报告了一次与冯·诺依曼的讨论。“围绕技术的加速进步和人类生活模式的改变,这让我们看到了人类历史上一些本质上的奇点。一旦超越了这些奇点,我们所熟知的人类事务就无法继续下去了”。后来作者也赞同这一观点。 |
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| + | [[I. J. Good]]'s "intelligence explosion" model predicts that a future superintelligence will trigger a singularity.<ref name="vinge1993">Vinge, Vernor. [http://mindstalk.net/vinge/vinge-sing.html "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era"], in ''Vision-21: Interdisciplinary Science and Engineering in the Era of Cyberspace'', G. A. Landis, ed., NASA Publication CP-10129, pp. 11–22, 1993.</ref> |
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− | [[I. J. Good]]'s "intelligence explosion" model predicts that a future superintelligence will trigger a singularity.<ref name="vinge1993">Vinge, Vernor. [http://mindstalk.net/vinge/vinge-sing.html "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era"], in ''Vision-21: Interdisciplinary Science and Engineering in the Era of Cyberspace'', G. A. Landis, ed., NASA Publication CP-10129, pp. 11–22, 1993.</ref>
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| [[File:Major Evolutionary Transitions digital.jpg|thumb|upright=1.6|Schematic Timeline of Information and Replicators in the Biosphere: Gillings et al.'s "[[The Major Transitions in Evolution|major evolutionary transitions]]" in information processing.<ref name="InfoBiosphere2016" />|链接=Special:FilePath/Major_Evolutionary_Transitions_digital.jpg]] | | [[File:Major Evolutionary Transitions digital.jpg|thumb|upright=1.6|Schematic Timeline of Information and Replicators in the Biosphere: Gillings et al.'s "[[The Major Transitions in Evolution|major evolutionary transitions]]" in information processing.<ref name="InfoBiosphere2016" />|链接=Special:FilePath/Major_Evolutionary_Transitions_digital.jpg]] |
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− | [[档案:主要进化过渡数字.jpg|thumb |直立=1.6 |生物圈中信息和复制因子的示意时间线:Gillings等人在信息处理中的“[[进化中的主要转变|主要进化转变]]”。<ref name="InfoBiosphere2016" />]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]] | + | [[档案:主要进化过渡数字.jpg|thumb |直立=1.6 |生物圈中信息和复制因子的示意时间线:Gillings等人在信息处理中的“[[进化中的主要转变|主要进化转变]]”。<ref name="InfoBiosphere2016" />]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]] |
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| [[File:Biological vs. digital information.jpg|thumb|Amount of digital information worldwide (5{{e|21}} bytes) versus human genome information worldwide (10<sup>19</sup> bytes) in 2014.<ref name="InfoBiosphere2016" />|链接=Special:FilePath/Biological_vs._digital_information.jpg]] | | [[File:Biological vs. digital information.jpg|thumb|Amount of digital information worldwide (5{{e|21}} bytes) versus human genome information worldwide (10<sup>19</sup> bytes) in 2014.<ref name="InfoBiosphere2016" />|链接=Special:FilePath/Biological_vs._digital_information.jpg]] |
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− | [[档案:生物vs。数字信息.jpg|2014年,全球数字信息总量(5{e | 21}字节)与全球人类基因组信息(10<sup>19</sup>字节)的对比。<ref name="InfoBiosphere2016" />]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]] | + | [[档案:生物vs。数字信息.jpg|2014年,全球数字信息总量(5{e | 21}字节)与全球人类基因组信息(10<sup>19</sup>字节)的对比。<ref name="InfoBiosphere2016" />]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]][[Index.php?title=技术奇点#cite%20note-InfoBiosphere2016-89|<span class="mw-reflink-text">[89]</span>]] |
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| While the technological singularity is usually seen as a sudden event, some scholars argue the current speed of change already fits this description.{{citation needed|date=April 2018}} | | While the technological singularity is usually seen as a sudden event, some scholars argue the current speed of change already fits this description.{{citation needed|date=April 2018}} |