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| | ==概念史== | | ==概念史== |
| | + | Mahendra Prasad在《人工智能 AI Magazine》杂志上发表的一篇论文断言，18世纪的数学家Marquis de Condorcet是第一个对智能爆炸及其对人类影响进行假设和数学建模的人。<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Prasad|first=Mahendra|year=2019|title=Nicolas de Condorcet and the First Intelligence Explosion Hypothesis|journal=AI Magazine|volume=40|issue=1|pages=29–33|doi=10.1609/aimag.v40i1.2855}}</ref> |
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| − | A paper by Mahendra Prasad, published in ''[[AI Magazine]]'', asserts that the 18th-century mathematician [[Marquis de Condorcet]] was the first person to hypothesize and mathematically model an intelligence explosion and its effects on humanity.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Prasad|first=Mahendra|year=2019|title=Nicolas de Condorcet and the First Intelligence Explosion Hypothesis|journal=AI Magazine|volume=40|issue=1|pages=29–33|doi=10.1609/aimag.v40i1.2855}}</ref>
| + | 1932年约翰·伍德·坎贝尔的短篇小说《最后的进化 the last evolution》对这一想法作了早期的描述。 |
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| − | Mahendra Prasad在“[[人工智能杂志]]”上发表的一篇论文断言，18世纪的数学家[[Marquis de Condorcet]]是第一个对智能爆炸及其对人类影响进行假设和数学建模的人。
| + | Ulam在1958年为约翰·冯·诺依曼写的讣告中，回忆了与冯·诺依曼的一次对话：“技术的不断进步和人类生活方式的变化，这使我们似乎接近了种族历史上某些基本的奇点，超出了这些奇点，人类的事务就不能继续下去了。”<ref name=mathematical/> |
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| − | An early description of the idea was made in [[John Wood Campbell Jr.]]'s 1932 short story "The last evolution".
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| − | 1932年[[约翰.伍德.坎贝尔]的短篇小说《最后的进化》（the last evolution）对这一想法作了早期的描述。
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| − | In his 1958 obituary for [[John von Neumann]], Ulam recalled a conversation with von Neumann about the "ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue."<ref name=mathematical/>
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| − | Ulam 在1958年为约翰·冯·诺依曼写的讣告中，回忆了与冯·诺依曼的一次对话：“技术的不断进步和人类生活方式的变化，这使我们似乎接近了种族历史上某些基本的奇点，超出了这些奇点，人类的事务就不能继续下去了。”
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| − | In 1965, Good wrote his essay postulating an "intelligence explosion" of recursive self-improvement of a machine intelligence.
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| | 1965年，古德写了一篇文章，假设机器智能的自我改进迭代是“智能爆炸”。 | | 1965年，古德写了一篇文章，假设机器智能的自我改进迭代是“智能爆炸”。 |
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| − | In 1981, [[Stanisław Lem]] published his [[science fiction]] novel ''[[Golem XIV]]''. It describes a military AI computer (Golem XIV) who obtains consciousness and starts to increase his own intelligence, moving towards personal technological singularity. Golem XIV was originally created to aid its builders in fighting wars, but as its intelligence advances to a much higher level than that of humans, it stops being interested in the military requirement because it finds them lacking internal logical consistency.
| + | 1981年，Stanisław Lem出版了他的科幻小说《Golem XIV》。它描述了一台军用人工智能计算机（Golem XIV）获得了意识并开始增加自己的智能，朝着个体的技术奇点迈进。Golem XIV最初是为了帮助它的建造者打仗，但随着它的智力发展到比人类更高的水平，它不再对军事感兴趣，因为它发现它们缺乏内在的逻辑一致性。 |
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| − | 1981年，[[Stanisław Lem]]出版了他的[[科幻小说]]小说“[[Golem XIV]]”。它描述了一台军用人工智能计算机（Golem XIV）获得了意识并开始增加自己的智能，朝着个体的技术奇点迈进。Golem XIV最初是为了帮助它的建造者打仗，但随着它的智力发展到比人类更高的水平，它不再对军事感兴趣，因为它发现它们缺乏内在的逻辑一致性。
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| − | In 1983, [[Vernor Vinge]] greatly popularized Good's intelligence explosion in a number of writings, first addressing the topic in print in the January 1983 issue of ''[[Omni (magazine)|Omni]]'' magazine. In this op-ed piece, Vinge seems to have been the first to use the term "singularity" in a way that was specifically tied to the creation of intelligent machines:<ref name="google4"/><ref name="technological"/>
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| − | 1983年，[[Vernor Vinge]]在许多著作中极大地普及了Good的智能爆炸，他第一次在1983年1月出版的“[[Omni”杂志上提到了这一主题。在这篇评论文章中，Vinge似乎是第一个使用“奇点”一词的人，并将“奇点”的概念特别地与智能机器的创造进行联系：
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| − | {{quote|We will soon create intelligences greater than our own. When this happens, human history will have reached a kind of singularity, an intellectual transition as impenetrable as the knotted space-time at the center of a black hole, and the world will pass far beyond our understanding. This singularity, I believe, already haunts a number of science-fiction writers. It makes realistic extrapolation to an interstellar future impossible. To write a story set more than a century hence, one needs a nuclear war in between ... so that the world remains intelligible.}}
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| − | {{我们很快就会创造出比我们自己更强大的智能。当这种情况发生时，人类历史将达到一种奇点，一种如同黑洞中心打结的时空一样难以逾越的知识转变，世界将远远超出我们的理解。我相信，这种奇点已经困扰了许多科幻作家。这使得对星际未来的现实推断变得不可能。要写一个多世纪以后的故事，科幻小说家需要一场核战争……这样世界就可以理解了。}}
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| − | In 1985, in "The Time Scale of Artificial Intelligence", artificial intelligence researcher [[Ray Solomonoff]] articulated mathematically the related notion of what he called an "infinity point": if a research community of human-level self-improving AIs take four years to double their own speed, then two years, then one year and so on, their capabilities increase infinitely in finite time.<ref name=chalmers /><ref name="std"/>
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| − | 1985年，在《人工智能的时间尺度 The Time Scale of Artificial Intelligence》一书中，人工智能研究人员[[Ray Solomonoff]]以数学的方式阐述了他所说的“无限点”的相关概念：如果一个人类水平的能自我改进人工智能的研究社区需要四年时间使其速度加倍，那么两年，然后一年，依此类推，它们的能力在有限的时间内无限增长。<ref name=chalmers/><ref name=“std”/>
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| − | Vinge's 1993 article "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era",<ref name="vinge1993" /> spread widely on the internet and helped to popularize the idea.<ref name="google5"/> This article contains the statement, "Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended." Vinge argues that science-fiction authors cannot write realistic post-singularity characters who surpass the human intellect, as the thoughts of such an intellect would be beyond the ability of humans to express.<ref name="vinge1993" />
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| − | Vinge 1993年的文章《未来的技术奇点：如何在后人类时代生存 The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era》在互联网上广为传播，普及了这一理念。“在三十年内，我们将拥有创造超人智慧的技术手段。不久之后，人类时代将结束。”Vinge认为，科幻小说作者无法写出超越人类智力的现实主义后奇点人物，因为这种智力的思想将超出人类的表达能力。
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| − | In 2000, [[Bill Joy]], a prominent technologist and a co-founder of [[Sun Microsystems]], voiced concern over the potential dangers of the singularity.<ref name="JoyFuture"/>
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| − | 2000年，著名的技术专家和 Sun Microsystems 的联合创始人 Bill Joy，表达了对奇点潜在危险的担忧。<ref name="JoyFuture"/>
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| − | In 2005, Kurzweil published ''[[The Singularity is Near]]''. Kurzweil's publicity campaign included an appearance on ''[[The Daily Show with Jon Stewart]]''.<ref name="episode"/>
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| − | 2005年，Kurzweil 发表了《奇点临近 The Singularity is Near》。Kurzweil 的宣传活动包括参加“ Jon Stewart 的每日秀 The Daily Show with Jon Stewart”。<ref name="episode"/>
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| − | In 2007, [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]] suggested that many of the varied definitions that have been assigned to "singularity" are mutually incompatible rather than mutually supporting.<ref name="yudkowsky.net"/><ref>Sandberg, Anders. "An overview of models of technological singularity." Roadmaps to AGI and the Future of AGI Workshop, Lugano, Switzerland, March. Vol. 8. 2010.</ref> For example, Kurzweil extrapolates current technological trajectories past the arrival of self-improving AI or superhuman intelligence, which Yudkowsky argues represents a tension with both I. J. Good's proposed discontinuous upswing in intelligence and Vinge's thesis on unpredictability.<ref name="yudkowsky.net"/>
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| | + | 1983年，Vernor Vinge在许多著作中极大地普及了Good的智能爆炸，他第一次在1983年1月出版的《Omni》杂志上提到了这一主题。在这篇评论文章中，Vinge似乎是第一个使用“奇点”一词的人，并将“奇点”的概念特别地与智能机器的创造进行联系：<ref name="google4"/><ref name="technological"/> |
| | + | ::我们很快就会创造出比我们自己更强大的智能。当这种情况发生时，人类历史将达到一种奇点，一种如同黑洞中心打结的时空一样难以逾越的知识转变，世界将远远超出我们的理解。我相信，这种奇点已经困扰了许多科幻作家。这使得对星际未来的现实推断变得不可能。要写一个多世纪以后的故事，科幻小说家需要一场核战争……这样世界就可以理解了。 |
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| − | 2007年，Eliezer Yudkowsky指出，“奇点”被赋予的许多不同的定义是互不兼容而不是相互支持的<ref name="yudkowsky.net"/><ref>Sandberg, Anders. "An overview of models of technological singularity." Roadmaps to AGI and the Future of AGI Workshop, Lugano, Switzerland, March. Vol. 8. 2010.</ref>。例如，Kurzweil 推断了在自我提升的人工智能或超人智能到来之前的当前技术轨迹。Yudkowsky 认为，这与I.J.Good 提出的智能的不连续上升和 Vinge 关于不可预测性的论点存在矛盾。<ref name="yudkowsky.net"/>
| + | 1985年，在《人工智能的时间尺度 The Time Scale of Artificial Intelligence》一书中，人工智能研究人员Ray Solomonoff以数学的方式阐述了他所说的“无限点”的相关概念：如果一个人类水平的能自我改进人工智能的研究社区需要四年时间使其速度加倍，那么两年，然后一年，依此类推，它们的能力在有限的时间内无限增长。<ref name=chalmers/><ref name=“std”/> |
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| − | In 2009, Kurzweil and [[X-Prize]] founder [[Peter Diamandis]] announced the establishment of [[Singularity University]], a nonaccredited private institute whose stated mission is "to educate, inspire and empower leaders to apply exponential technologies to address humanity's grand challenges."<ref name="singularityu"/> Funded by [[Google]], [[Autodesk]], [[ePlanet Ventures]], and a group of [[High tech|technology industry]] leaders, Singularity University is based at [[NASA]]'s [[Ames Research Center]] in [[Mountain View, California|Mountain View]], [[California]]. The not-for-profit organization runs an annual ten-week graduate program during summer that covers ten different technology and allied tracks, and a series of executive programs throughout the year.
| + | Vinge1993年的文章《未来的技术奇点：如何在后人类时代生存 The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era》在互联网上广为传播，普及了这一理念。<ref name="google5"/>“在三十年内，我们将拥有创造超人智慧的技术手段。不久之后，人类时代将结束。”Vinge认为，科幻小说作者无法写出超越人类智力的现实主义后奇点人物，因为这种智力的思想将超出人类的表达能力。<ref name="vinge1993" /> |
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| − | 2009年，Kurzweil 和 X-Prize 的创始人Peter Diamandis宣布成立奇点大学，这是一所未经认证的私立学院，其宣称的使命是“教育、激励和赋能领导者来使用指数技术应对人类的重大挑战<ref name="singularityu"/> 。”奇点大学由Google、Autodesk、ePlanet Ventures和一群高科技产业的领导团队资助，总部设在位于加州山景城的美国宇航局 NASA 的 艾姆斯研究中心 Ames Research Center。这家非营利组织在每年夏季举办为期十周的研究生课程，涵盖十种不同的技术和相关领域，并全年举办一系列高管课程。
| + | 2000年，著名的技术专家和Sun Microsystems的联合创始人Bill Joy，表达了对奇点潜在危险的担忧。<ref name="JoyFuture"/> |
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| | + | 2005年，Kurzweil发表了《奇点临近 The Singularity is Near》。Kurzweil的宣传活动包括参加“Jon Stewart的每日秀 The Daily Show with Jon Stewart”。<ref name="episode"/> |
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| | + | 2007年，Eliezer Yudkowsky指出，“奇点”被赋予的许多不同的定义是互不兼容而不是相互支持的。<ref name="yudkowsky.net"/><ref>Sandberg, Anders. "An overview of models of technological singularity." Roadmaps to AGI and the Future of AGI Workshop, Lugano, Switzerland, March. Vol. 8. 2010.</ref>例如，Kurzweil推断了在自我提升的人工智能或超人智能到来之前的当前技术轨迹。Yudkowsky认为，这与I. J. Good提出的智能的不连续上升和Vinge关于不可预测性的论点存在矛盾。<ref name="yudkowsky.net"/> |
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| | + | 2009年，Kurzweil和X-Prize的创始人Peter Diamandis宣布成立奇点大学，这是一所未经认证的私立学院，其宣称的使命是“教育、激励和赋能领导者来使用指数技术应对人类的重大挑战”。<ref name="singularityu"/>奇点大学由Google、Autodesk、ePlanet Ventures和一群高科技产业的领导团队资助，总部设在位于加州山景城的美国宇航局NASA的艾姆斯研究中心 Ames Research Center。这家非营利组织在每年夏季举办为期十周的研究生课程，涵盖十种不同的技术和相关领域，并全年举办一系列高管课程。 |
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| | ==在政治中== | | ==在政治中== |