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无编辑摘要
因果关系阶梯的第三级被称为“反事实”，包括回答一些问题:如果环境不同，会发生什么?这种推理在更大程度上调用了因果关系。书中给出的一个反事实问题是“如果奥斯瓦尔德没有杀死肯尼迪，他还会活着吗?”
因果关系阶梯的第三级被称为“反事实”，包括回答一些问题:如果环境不同，会发生什么?这种推理在更大程度上调用了因果关系。书中给出的一个反事实问题是“如果奥斯瓦尔德没有杀死肯尼迪，他还会活着吗?”
第二章：从海盗到豚鼠：因果推断的起源
Chapter 2 starts with a brief summary of the contributions of Francis Galton and Karl Pearson to the development of statistics in the late 19th Century and early 20th Centuries. The authors blame Galton for keeping the study of statistics on the first rung of the ladder of causation and discouraging any discussion of causality in statistics. Causal analysis using path diagrams is then introduced through the explanations of the work of Sewall Wright.
Chapter 2 starts with a brief summary of the contributions of Francis Galton and Karl Pearson to the development of statistics in the late 19th Century and early 20th Centuries. The authors blame Galton for keeping the study of statistics on the first rung of the ladder of causation and discouraging any discussion of causality in statistics. Causal analysis using path diagrams is then introduced through the explanations of the work of Sewall Wright.
第二章首先简要总结了弗朗西斯·高尔顿和卡尔·皮尔森在19世纪末20世纪初对统计学发展的贡献。作者们指责高尔顿把统计学的研究放在了因果关系阶梯的第一级，并阻止了统计学中任何关于因果关系的讨论。使用路径图的因果分析，然后介绍了通过解释Sewall Wright的工作。
Chapter 3: From Evidence to Causes: Reverend [Thomas Bayes|Bayes] meets Mr Holmes[edit]
Chapter 3: From Evidence to Causes: Reverend [Thomas Bayes|Bayes] meets Mr Holmes[edit]