社会模拟

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唐糖糖（讨论 | 贡献）2021年8月30日 (一) 00:41的版本
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社会模拟是应用计算方法研究社会科学问题的一个研究领域。所探讨的问题包括计算法、心理学[1]、组织行为学[2]、社会学、政治学、经济学、人类学、地理学、工程学[2] 、考古学和语言学。


社会模拟旨在跨越社会科学中使用的描述性方法和自然科学中使用的形式方法之间的鸿沟，将重点转移到构建社会现实的过程/机制/行为上。


在社会模拟中，计算机通过执行这些机制来支持人类的推理活动。这个领域探讨的是将社会模拟为复杂的非线性系统，这是很难用基于经典数学方程式的模型进行研究的。罗伯特 · 阿克塞尔罗德(Robert Axelrod)将社会模拟视为研究科学的第三种方式，不同于演绎和归纳的方法; 生成可以归纳分析的数据，但来自严格规定的规则集，而不是来自对现实世界的直接测量。因此，模拟一种现象类似于产生它——构建人工社会。这些雄心勃勃的目标遭到了一些批评。


社会科学的社会模拟方法由欧洲、北美洲的ESSA（以新的CSSS命名重组）和PAAA亚太地区协会推动和协调。

= 历史与发展 =

The history of the agent-based model can be traced back to the Von Neumann machine, a theoretical machine capable of reproducing itself. The device von Neumann proposed would follow precisely detailed instructions to fashion a copy of itself. The concept was then improved by von Neumann's friend Stanislaw Ulam, also a mathematician; Ulam suggested that the machine be built on paper, as a collection of cells on a grid. The idea intrigued von Neumann, who drew it up—creating the first of devices later termed cellular automata.

The history of the agent-based model can be traced back to the Von Neumann machine, a theoretical machine capable of reproducing itself. The device von Neumann proposed would follow precisely detailed instructions to fashion a copy of itself. The concept was then improved by von Neumann's friend Stanislaw Ulam, also a mathematician; Ulam suggested that the machine be built on paper, as a collection of cells on a grid. The idea intrigued von Neumann, who drew it up—creating the first of devices later termed cellular automata.

基于agent的模型的历史可以追溯到冯 · 诺依曼(von Neumann)机，这是一种理论上能够自我复制的理论机器。冯 · 诺依曼提出的设备将按照精确的详细指令制作自己的副本。冯 · 诺依曼的朋友、数学家斯坦尼斯拉夫 · 乌拉姆对这个概念进行了改进; 乌拉姆建议将这台机器建在纸上，作为一个网格上的单元集合。这个想法引起了冯 · 诺依曼的兴趣，他提出了它ーー创造了后来被称为细胞自动机的第一个装置。

Another improvement was brought by mathematician, John Conway. He constructed the well-known Game of Life. Unlike the von Neumann's machine, Conway's Game of Life operated by simple rules in a virtual world in the form of a 2-dimensional checkerboard.

Another improvement was brought by mathematician, John Conway. He constructed the well-known Game of Life. Unlike the von Neumann's machine, Conway's Game of Life operated by simple rules in a virtual world in the form of a 2-dimensional checkerboard.

数学家John Conway带来了另一项改进。他构建了著名的生命游戏。与冯 · 诺依曼的机器不同，康威的“生命的游戏”(Game of Life)以二维棋盘的形式在虚拟世界中按照简单的规则运行。

The birth of the agent-based model as a model for social systems was primarily brought about by a computer scientist, Craig Reynolds. He tried to model the reality of lively biological agents, known as the artificial life, a term coined by Christopher Langton.

The birth of the agent-based model as a model for social systems was primarily brought about by a computer scientist, Craig Reynolds. He tried to model the reality of lively biological agents, known as the artificial life, a term coined by Christopher Langton.

作为社会系统模型的基于agent的模型诞生，主要是由计算机科学家 Craig Reynolds 提出的。他试图模拟生物制剂的真实情况，即人工生命，这是Christopher Langton创造的一个术语。

Joshua M. Epstein and Robert Axtell developed the first large scale agent model, the Sugarscape, to simulate and explore the role of social phenomena such as seasonal migrations, pollution, sexual reproduction, combat, transmission of disease, and even culture.

Joshua M. Epstein and Robert Axtell developed the first large scale agent model, the Sugarscape, to simulate and explore the role of social phenomena such as seasonal migrations, pollution, sexual reproduction, combat, transmission of disease, and even culture.

Joshua M. Epstein 和 Robert Axtell 开发了第一个大规模的agent模型---- Sugarscape，用来模拟和探索诸如季节性迁徙、污染、有性生殖、战斗、疾病传播甚至文化等社会现象的作用。

Kathleen M. Carley published "Computational Organizational Science and Organizational Engineering" defining the movement of simulation into organizations, established a journal for social simulation applied to organizations and complex socio-technical systems: Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, and was the founding president of the North American Association of Computational Social and Organizational Systems that morphed into the current CSSSA.

Kathleen M. Carley published "Computational Organizational Science and Organizational Engineering" defining the movement of simulation into organizations, established a journal for social simulation applied to organizations and complex socio-technical systems: Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, and was the founding president of the North American Association of Computational Social and Organizational Systems that morphed into the current CSSSA.

Kathleen M. Carley发表了“计算机组织科学和组织工程学”(Computational Organizational Science and Organizational Engineering) ，定义了模拟在组织的过程，创办了一本应用于组织和复杂社会技术系统的社会模拟期刊：《计算机和数学组织理论》(Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory) ，并且是北美计算机社会和组织系统协会(North American Association of Computational Social and Organizational Systems)的创始主席，该协会后来演变成了现在的 CSSSA。

Nigel Gilbert published with Klaus G. Troitzsch the first textbook on Social Simulation: Simulation for the Social Scientist (1999) and established its most relevant journal: the Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation.

Nigel Gilbert published with Klaus G. Troitzsch the first textbook on Social Simulation: Simulation for the Social Scientist (1999) and established its most relevant journal: the Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation.

Nigel Gilbert 与 Klaus G. Troitzsch 共同出版了第一本关于社会模拟的教科书：《社会模拟: 社会科学家的模拟》(1999年) ，并创办了其最相关的的期刊: 《人工社会与社会模拟杂志》(Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation)。

More recently, Ron Sun developed methods for basing agent-based simulation on models of human cognition, known as cognitive social simulation (see 模板:Harv)【原网页应该是(see (Sun 2006)】.

More recently, Ron Sun developed methods for basing agent-based simulation on models of human cognition, known as cognitive social simulation 【原网页应该是(see (Sun 2006)(超链接】.

最近，Ron Sun 开发了一种基于人类认知模型的基于 agent 的模拟方法，称为认知社会模拟(cognitive social simulation)

Topics

Topics

= 主题 =

Here are some sample topics that have been explored with social simulation:

Here are some sample topics that have been explored with social simulation:

下面是一些已经用社交模拟探索过的样本主题:

  • Social norms: Robert Axelrod has used simulations to investigate the foundation of morality;[3] others have modeled the emergence of norms using memes,[4] or how social norms and emotions can regulate each other.[5][6]
  • 社会规范: Robert Axelrod使用模拟来研究道德的基础[3]; 其他人使用模因模拟了规范的出现[4]，或者社会规范和情绪可以互相调节[5][6]。
  • Institutions: by investigating under what conditions agents manage to coordinate,[7] or by modeling the works of Robert Putnam on civic traditions[8]
  • 制度：通过调查代理人在什么条件下设法协调[7]，或者通过模仿Robert Putnam的公民传统著作[8]。
  • Reputation, for example by making agents with a model of reputation from Pierre Bourdieu (image, social esteem, and prestige) and observing their behavior in a virtual marketplace.[9]
  • 声誉：例如通过使用Pierre Bourdieu的声誉模型（形象，社会尊重和声望），并观察他们在虚拟市场中的行为。
  • Knowledge transmission and the social process of science: there is a special section on that topic in the Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation[10]
  • 知识传播和科学的社会过程：在人工社会和社会模拟杂志(Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation)上有一个关于这个主题的特别部分[10]。
  • Elections: Kim (2011) has modeled a psychological model of judgement from previous research (notably featuring motivated reasoning), and compared the statistical regularities of the simulation with empirical observations of voter behavior;[11] others have compared delegation methods.[12][13]
  • 选举：Kim(2011)模拟了之前研究中的判断心理模型（明显具有动机的推理），并对比了模拟的统计规律和选民行为的经验观察[11]，其他人比较了委托方法[12][13]。
  • Economics: see computational economics and agent-based computational economics.
  • 经济学：参见计算经济学(computational economics)和基于agent的计算经济学(agent-based computational economics)。


（下面这段和原网页不太一样，我不知道是从哪找找的，就没动。我前面那段按照原网页翻译的，这边我没改）

  • 【Social norms: Robert Axelrod has used simulations to investigate the foundation of morality;Robert Axelrod (1986): An Evolutionary Approach to Norms others have modeled the emergence of norms using memes,Felix Flentge, Daniel Polani and Thomas Uthmann (2001) Modelling the Emergence of Possession Norms using Memes or how social norms and emotions can regulate each other.Alexander Staller and Paolo Petta (2001): Introducing Emotions into the Computational Study of Social Norms: A First EvaluationSee Martin Neumann (2008): Homo Socionicus: a Case Study of Simulation Models of Norms for an overview of the recent (as of 2008) research.
  • Institutions: by investigating under what conditions agents manage to coordinate,José Castro Caldas and Helder Coelho (1999): The Origin of Institutions: socio-economic processes, choice, norms and conventions or by modeling the works of Robert Putnam on civic traditionsDan Miodownik, Britt Cartrite and Ravi Bhavnani (2010): Between Replication and Docking: "Adaptive Agents, Political Institutions, and Civic Traditions" Revisited
  • Reputation, for example by making agents with a model of reputation from Pierre Bourdieu (image, social esteem, and prestige) and observing their behavior in a virtual marketplace.Christian Hahn, Bettina Fley, Michael Florian, Daniela Spresny and Klaus Fischer (2007) : Social Reputation: a Mechanism for Flexible Self-Regulation of Multiagent Systems
  • Knowledge transmission and the social process of science: there is a special section on that topic in the Journal of Artificial Societies and Social SimulationJASSS vol. 14: Special section: Simulating the Social Processes of Science
  • Elections: Kim (2011) has modeled a psychological model of judgement from previous research (notably featuring motivated reasoning), and compared the statistical regularities of the simulation with empirical observations of voter behavior;Sung-youn Kim (2011): A Model of Political Judgment: An Agent-Based Simulation of Candidate Evaluation others have compared delegation methods.Ramzi Suleiman and Ilan Fischer (2000) When One Decides for Many: The Effect of Delegation Methods on Cooperation in Simulated Inter-group ConflictsMarie-Edith Bissey, Mauro Carini and Guido Ortona (2004) ALEX3, a Simulation Program to Compare Electoral Systems.
  • 社会规范: 罗伯特 · 阿克塞尔罗德(Robert Axelrod)利用模拟研究道德的基础; 罗伯特 · 阿克塞尔罗德(Robert Axelrod，1986) : 对规范的进化方法其他人利用模因模拟了规范的出现，费利克斯 · 弗伦奇(Felix fentge)、丹尼尔 · 波拉尼(Daniel Polani)和托马斯 · 乌斯曼(Thomas Uthmann，2001)利用模因模拟占有规范的出现，或者社会规范和情感如何相互调节。Alexander Staller 和 Paolo Petta (2001) : 将情感引入社会规范的计算机研究: 第一次评估参见 Martin Neumann (2008) : 社会人: 规范模拟模型的个案研究以概述最近(2008年)的研究。
  • 制度: 通过调查代理人在何种条件下设法进行协调，josé Castro Caldas 和 Helder Coelho (1999) : 制度的起源: 社会经济进程、选择、规范和惯例，或通过模仿 Robert Putnam 关于公民传统的著作 dan Miodownik、 Britt Cartrite 和 Ravi Bhavnani (2010) : 在复制和对接之间:”适应的代理人、政治制度和公民传统”
  • 声誉，例如使代理人以 Pierre Bourdieu 的声誉模型(图像、社会尊严和声望)重访，并观察他们在虚拟市场中的行为。克里斯蒂安 · 哈恩、贝蒂娜 · 弗利、迈克尔 · 弗洛里安、丹妮拉 · 斯普雷斯尼和克劳斯 · 费舍尔(2007) : 《社会声誉: 多代理系统的灵活自我调节机制》
  • 《知识传播和科学的社会进程》 : 《人工社会和社会模拟》第二卷中有一个关于这个主题的专门章节。14: 特别部分: 模拟科学
  • 选举的社会过程: Kim (2011)根据以前的研究建立了一个判断的心理模型(特别是动机性推理) ，并将模拟的统计规律与选民行为的实证观察进行了比较; Sung-youn Kim (2011) : 政治判断模型: 基于 agent 的候选人评估模拟其他人比较了授权方法。Ramzi Suleiman and Ilan Fischer (2000) When One decide for Many: The Effect of Delegation Methods on Cooperation in Simulated Inter-group conflict. marie-edith Bissey，Mauro Carini and Guido Ortona (2004) ALEX3，a Simulation Program to Compare Electoral Systems
  • Economics: see 计算经济学和基于代理的计算经济学。】

Types of simulation and modeling

模拟和建模的类型

Social simulation can refer to a general class of strategies for understanding social dynamics using computers to simulate social systems. Social simulation allows for a more systematic way of viewing the possibilities of outcomes.

Social simulation can refer to a general class of strategies for understanding social dynamics using computers to simulate social systems. Social simulation allows for a more systematic way of viewing the possibilities of outcomes.

社会模拟可以指使用计算机模拟社会系统来理解社会动态的一般策略。社会模拟允许以梗系统的方式查看结果的可能性。


There are four major types of social simulation:

  1. System level simulation.
  2. System level modeling.
  3. Agent-based simulation.
  4. Agent-based modeling.

There are four major types of social simulation:

  1. System level simulation.
  2. System level modeling.
  3. Agent-based simulation.
  4. Agent-based modeling.

社会模拟主要有四种类型:

1.系统级模拟。

2.系统级别建模。

3.基于 agent 的模拟。

4. 基于 agent 的建模。

A social simulation may fall within the rubric of computational sociology which is a recently developed branch of sociology that uses computation to analyze social phenomena. The basic premise of computational sociology is to take advantage of computer simulations 模板:Harv in the construction of social theories. It involves the understanding of social agents, the interaction among these agents, and the effect of these interactions on the social aggregate. Although the subject matter and methodologies in social science differ from those in natural science or computer science, several of the approaches used in contemporary social simulation originated from fields such as physics and artificial intelligence.

A social simulation may fall within the rubric of computational sociology which is a recently developed branch of sociology that uses computation to analyze social phenomena. The basic premise of computational sociology is to take advantage of computer simulations in the construction of social theories. It involves the understanding of social agents, the interaction among these agents, and the effect of these interactions on the social aggregate. Although the subject matter and methodologies in social science differ from those in natural science or computer science, several of the approaches used in contemporary social simulation originated from fields such as physics and artificial intelligence.

社会模拟可能属于计算社会学的范畴，它是最近发展起来的一个社会学分支，它利用计算来分析社会现象。计算社会学的基本前提是利用计算机模拟的优势构建社会理论。它涉及对社会主体的理解，这些主体之间的相互作用以及这些相互作用对社会总体的影响。尽管社会科学的主题和方法不同于自然科学或计算科学，但是当代社会模拟中使用的一些方法起源于物理学和人工智能等领域。

System level simulation

系统级别的模拟

System Level Simulation (SLS) is the oldest level of social simulation. System level simulation looks at the situation as a whole. This theoretical outlook on social situations uses a wide range of information to determine what should happen to society and its members if certain variables are present. Therefore, with specific variables presented, society and its members should have a certain response to the new situation. Navigating through this theoretical simulation will allow researchers to develop educated ideas of what will happen under some specific variables.

System Level Simulation (SLS) is the oldest level of social simulation. System level simulation looks at the situation as a whole. This theoretical outlook on social situations uses a wide range of information to determine what should happen to society and its members if certain variables are present. Therefore, with specific variables presented, society and its members should have a certain response to the new situation. Navigating through this theoretical simulation will allow researchers to develop educated ideas of what will happen under some specific variables.

系统级模拟(SLS)是最古老的社会模拟级别。系统级模拟将情况视为一个整体。这种关于社会状况的理论使用广泛的信息来确定，如果存在某些变量，社会及其成员将会发生什么。因此，随着具体变量的出现，社会及其成员应该对新形势有一定的反应。通过这种理论模拟，研究人员可以对在某些特定变量下会发生的事情发展出有根据的想法。

For example, if NASA were to conduct a system level simulation it would benefit the organization by providing a cost-effective research method to navigate through the simulation. This allows the researcher to steer through the virtual possibilities of the given simulation and develop safety procedures, and to produce proven facts about how a certain situation will play out. 【（ (National Research 2006)】

For example, if NASA were to conduct a system level simulation it would benefit the organization by providing a cost-effective research method to navigate through the simulation. This allows the researcher to steer through the virtual possibilities of the given simulation and develop safety procedures, and to produce proven facts about how a certain situation will play out.

例如，如果NASA要进行一次系统级别的模拟，它将通过提供一种具有成本效益的研究方法来导航模拟，从而使该组织受益。这使得研究人员能够驾驭并制定发展安全程序通过给定模拟的虚拟可能性，并产生关于某种情况将如何发挥的证明事实。

System level modeling

System level modeling

= = 系统级建模 = =

System level modeling (SLM) aims to specifically predict (unlike system level simulation's generalization in prediction) and convey any number of actions, behaviors, or other theoretical possibilities of nearly any person, object, construct et cetera within a system using a large set of mathematical equations and computer programming in the form of models.

System level modeling (SLM) aims to specifically predict (unlike system level simulation's generalization in prediction) and convey any number of actions, behaviors, or other theoretical possibilities of nearly any person, object, construct et cetera within a system using a large set of mathematical equations and computer programming in the form of models.

系统级建模(System level modeling，SLM)旨在具专门预测（不同于系统级模拟的预测泛化），并传达系统内几乎任何人、对象、构造等的人和数量的动作、行为或其他理论可能性，以模型的方式使用大量数学方程和计算机编程。

A model is a representation of a specific thing ranging from objects and people to structures and products created through mathematical equations and are designed, using computers, in such a way that they are able to stand-in as the aforementioned things in a study. Models can be either simplistic or complex, depending on the need for either; however, models are intended to be simpler than what they are representing while remaining realistically similar in order to be used accurately. They are built using a collection of data that is translated into computing languages that allow them to represent the system in question. These models, much like simulations, are used to help us better understand specific roles and actions of different things so as to predict behavior and the like.

A model is a representation of a specific thing ranging from objects and people to structures and products created through mathematical equations and are designed, using computers, in such a way that they are able to stand-in as the aforementioned things in a study. Models can be either simplistic or complex, depending on the need for either; however, models are intended to be simpler than what they are representing while remaining realistically similar in order to be used accurately. They are built using a collection of data that is translated into computing languages that allow them to represent the system in question. These models, much like simulations, are used to help us better understand specific roles and actions of different things so as to predict behavior and the like.

模型是对特定事物的表示，范围从物体和人到通过数学方程创建的结构和产品，并使用计算机进行设计，使他们能够在研究中代替上述事物。模型可以是简单的，也可以是复杂的，这取决于两者的需要; 然而，模型的目的是比它们所表示的更简单，同时保持实际相似，以便准确地使用。它们是使用一组数据集转换成计算语言来构建的，计算语言使得它们能够表示所涉及的系统。这些模型，就像模拟一样，用来帮助我们更好地理解不同事物的特定角色和行为，从而预测行为等。

Agent-based simulation

= = 基于 agent 的模拟 = =

Agent-based social simulation (ABSS) consists of modeling different societies after artificial agents, (varying on scale) and placing them in a computer simulated society to observe the behaviors of the agents. From this data it is possible to learn about the reactions of the artificial agents and translate them into the results of non-artificial agents and simulations. Three main fields in ABSS are agent-based computing, social science, and computer simulation.

Agent-based social simulation (ABSS) consists of modeling different societies after artificial agents, (varying on scale) and placing them in a computer simulated society to observe the behaviors of the agents. From this data it is possible to learn about the reactions of the artificial agents and translate them into the results of non-artificial agents and simulations. Three main fields in ABSS are agent-based computing, social science, and computer simulation.

基于agent的社会模拟(Agent-based social simulation，ABSS)是将不同社会群体按照人工智能(artificial agent)模型(规模不同)进行建模，并将其置于计算机模拟的社会中，以观察agents的行为。从这些数据可以了解人工代理的反应，并将其转化为非人工代理和模拟的结果。ABSS 的3个主要领域是基于agent的计算、社会科学和计算机模拟。

Agent-based computing is the design of the model and agents, while the computer simulation is the part of the simulation of the agents in the model and the outcomes. The social science is a mixture of sciences and social part of the model. It is where the social phenomena is developed and theorized. The main purpose of ABSS is to provide models and tools for agent-based simulation of social phenomena. With ABSS we can explore different outcomes for phenomena where we might not be able to view the outcome in real life. It can provide us valuable information on society and the outcomes of social events or phenomena.

Agent-based computing is the design of the model and agents, while the computer simulation is the part of the simulation of the agents in the model and the outcomes. The social science is a mixture of sciences and social part of the model. It is where the social phenomena is developed and theorized. The main purpose of ABSS is to provide models and tools for agent-based simulation of social phenomena. With ABSS we can explore different outcomes for phenomena where we might not be able to view the outcome in real life. It can provide us valuable information on society and the outcomes of social events or phenomena.

基于 agent 的计算是模型和 agent 的设计，而计算机模拟是模型和结果中 agent 的模拟部分。社会科学是模型的科学和社会部分的混合体。它是社会现象发展和理论化的地方。ABSS 的主要目的是为基于agent的社会现象模拟提供模型和工具。有了ABSS，我们可以探索现象的不同结果，那些在现实生活中我们可能无法看到的结果。它可以为我们提供关于社会和社会事件或现象的结果的有价值的信息。

Agent-based modeling

Agent-based modeling

基于 agent 的建模

Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a system in which a collection of agents independently interact on networks. Each individual agent is responsible for different behaviors that result in collective behaviors. These behaviors as a whole help to define the workings of the network. ABM focuses on human social interactions and how people work together and communicate with one another without having one, single "group mind". This essentially means that it tends to focus on the consequences of interactions between people (the agents) in a population. Researchers are better able to understand this type of modeling by modeling these dynamics on a smaller, more localized level. Essentially, ABM helps to better understand interactions between people (agents) who, in turn, influence one another (in response to these influences). Simple individual rules or actions can result in coherent group behavior. Changes in these individual acts can affect the collective group in any given population.

Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a system in which a collection of agents independently interact on networks. Each individual agent is responsible for different behaviors that result in collective behaviors. These behaviors as a whole help to define the workings of the network. ABM focuses on human social interactions and how people work together and communicate with one another without having one, single "group mind". This essentially means that it tends to focus on the consequences of interactions between people (the agents) in a population. Researchers are better able to understand this type of modeling by modeling these dynamics on a smaller, more localized level. Essentially, ABM helps to better understand interactions between people (agents) who, in turn, influence one another (in response to these influences). Simple individual rules or actions can result in coherent group behavior. Changes in these individual acts can affect the collective group in any given population.

基于 agent 的建模(Agent-based modeling ，ABM)是一个由多个 agent 在网络上独立交互的系统。每个个体agent都要对导致集体行为的不同行为负责。这些行为作为一个整体有助于定义网络的工作方式。ABM侧重于人类的社会互动和人们如何在没有单一“群体思维”的情况下一起工作和沟通。这本质上意味着它倾向于关注人与人(the agent)之间相互作用的结果。通过在一个更小的，更局部的水平上对这些动态建模，研究人员能够更好地理解这种类型的建模。从本质上讲，ABM 有助于更好地理解人(agent)之间的互动，而这些人(agent)又相互影响(对这些影响作出反应)。简单的个人规则或动作可以导致一致的群体行为。这些个人行为的变化会影响任何特定人群中的集体。

Agent-based modeling is an experimental tool for theoretical research. It enables one to deal with more complex individual behaviors, such as adaptation. Overall, through this type of modeling, the creator, or researcher, aims to model behavior of agents and the communication between them in order to better understand how these individual interactions impact an entire population. In essence, ABM is a way of modeling and understanding different global patterns.

Agent-based modeling is an experimental tool for theoretical research. It enables one to deal with more complex individual behaviors, such as adaptation. Overall, through this type of modeling, the creator, or researcher, aims to model behavior of agents and the communication between them in order to better understand how these individual interactions impact an entire population. In essence, ABM is a way of modeling and understanding different global patterns.

基于 agent 的建模是一种理论研究的实验工具。它使人们能够处理更复杂的个人行为，例如适应。总的来说，通过这种类型的建模，创建者或研究人员的目标是对agent的行为和他们之间的交流建模，以更好地理解这些个体的相互作用如何影响整个群体。本质上，ABM 是一种建模和理解不同全局模式的方法。

Current research

Current research

= 当前研究 =

There are several current research projects that relate directly to modeling and agent-based simulation the following are listed below with a brief overview.

There are several current research projects that relate directly to modeling and agent-based simulation the following are listed below with a brief overview.

有几个当前的研究项目与建模和基于agent的模拟直接相关的，下面列出了一个简短的概述。

  • "Generative e-Social Science for Socio-Spatial Simulation" or (GENESIS) is a research node of the UK National Centre for e-Social Science funded by the UK research council ESRC. For further details please see: GENESIS Web Page and Blog.
  • “用于社会空间模拟的生成式电子社会科学”或(GENESIS)是英国国家电子社会科学中心的一个研究节点，由英国研究理事会 ESRC 资助。详情请参阅: GENESIS 网页和博客。
  • "National e-Infrastructure for Social Simulation" or (NeISS) is a UK-based project funded by JISC. For further details please see: The NeISS Web Pages.
  • “国家社会模拟电子基础设施”或(NeISS)是由 JISC 资助的一个英国项目。详细信息请参阅: NeISS 网页。
  • "Network Models Governance and R&D collaboration networks" or (N.E.M.O) is a research centre whose main focus is to identify ways to create and to assess desirable network structures for typical functions; (e.g. knowledge, creation, transfer, and distribution.) This research will ultimately aid policy-makers at all political levels in improving the effectiveness and efficiency of network-based policy instruments at promoting the knowledge economy in Europe.
  • “网络模型治理及研发协作网络”或 (N.E.M.O) 是一个研究中心，主要研究重点是确定和评估典型功能所需的网络结构；（例如知识、创造、转移和分配。）这项研究最终将帮助各级政治层面的决策者提高以网络为基础的政策工具在促进欧洲知识经济方面的有效性和效率。
  • "Agent-based Simulations of Market and Consumer Behavior" is another research group that is funded by the Unilever Corporate Research. The current research that is being conducted is investigating the usefulness of agent-based simulations for modeling consumer behavior and to show the potential value and insights it can add to long-established marketing methods.
  • ”基于agent的市场和消费者行为模拟”是联合利华公司研究资助的另一个研究小组。目前正在进行的研究是调查基于agent的模拟对消费者行为建模的有用性，并显示其可以为长期建立的营销方法增加的潜在价值和洞察力。
  • "New and Emergent World Models Through Individual, Evolutionary and Social Learning" or (New Ties) is a three-year project that will ultimately create a virtual society developed by agent-based simulation. The project will develop a simulated society capable of exploring the environment and developing its own image of this environment and the society through interaction. The goal of the research project is for the simulated society to exhibit individual learning, evolutionary learning and social learning.
  • “通过个人、进化及社会学习的新兴的世界模型”或（新纽带）是一个为期三年的项目，最终将建立一个由基于agent模拟的虚拟社会。该项目将建立一个能够探索环境，并通过互动发展自己对这一环境和社会的形象的模拟社会。该该研究项目的目标是使模拟社会呈现个体学习、进化学习和社会学习。
  • Bruch and Mare's project on neighborhood segregation: The purpose of the study is to figure out the reasoning for neighborhood segregation based on race, and to figure out the tipping point or when people become uncomfortable with the integration levels into their neighborhood, and decide to flee from the neighborhood. They set up a model using flash cards, and put the agent's house in the middle and put houses of different races surrounding the agent's house. They asked people how comfortable they would feel with different situations; if they were okay with one situation, they asked another until the neighborhood was fully integrated. Bruch and Mare's results showed that the tipping point was at 50%. When a neighborhood became 50% minority and 50% white, people of both races began to become uncomfortable and white flight began to rise. The use of agent-based modeling showed how useful it can be in the world of sociology, people did not have to answer why they would become uncomfortable, just which situation they were uncomfortable with.
  • Bruch和 Mare 的关于社区隔离的项目: 这项研究的目的是找出基于种族的社区隔离的原因，并找出临界点或者当人们对融入社区的程度感到不舒服时，并决定逃离社区时。他们用闪存卡建立了一个模型，然后把agent的房子放在中间，把不同种族的房子围绕在agent的房子周围。他们询问人们在不同的情况下感觉如何; 如果他们对一种情况感到没问题，他们会询问另一种情况，直到邻里完全融合。Bruch 和 Mare 的研究结果显示，临界点是50% 。当一个社区变成了50% 的少数民族和50% 的白人时，这两个种族的人开始变得不舒服，白人逃亡开始增多。基于agent的模型的使用表明它在社会学领域是多么的有用，人们不需要回答为什么他们会变得不舒服，只需要回答他们对哪种情况感到不舒服。
  • The MAELIA Program (Multi-Agent Emergent Norms Assessment) is a project dealing with the relationships between the users and managers of a natural resource, in that case water, and the related norms and laws that are to be built within them (conventions) or are imposed to them by other actors (institutions). The purpose of the project is to build a generic multiscale platform which is planned to deal with water conflict-related issues.
  • MAELIA 计划(多agent应急规范评估)是一个处理自然资源的用户和管理者之间的关系的项目，在这种情况下，水以及在其中建立的或由其他行为者(机构)强加给他们的相关准则和法律(惯例)。该项目的目的是建立一个通用的多尺度平台，计划处理与水冲突有关的问题。
  • The Mosi-Agil project is a four-year program funded by the Autonomous Region of Madrid through the program MOSI-AGIL-CM (grant S2013/ICE-3019, co-funded by EU Structural Funds FSE and FEDER). It aims at creating a body of knowledge and practical tools which are necessary to handle more effectively the behavior of occupants of large facilities. Therefore, the project studies the development of ambient intelligence and intelligent environments supported by the use of Agent-Based Social Simulation.
  • Mosi-Agil project项目是一个由马德里自治地方通过 Mosi-Agil-cm (赠款 S2013/ICE-3019，由欧盟结构基金 FSE 和 FEDER 共同资助)方案提供资金的为期四年的项目。它旨在创造一个知识体系和实用工具，它们对于更有效地处理大型设施的使用者的行为是必不可少的。因此，该项目研究了基于 agent 的社会模拟技术支持的环境智能和智能环境的开发。


Agent-based modeling is most useful in providing a bridge between micro and macro levels, which is a large part of what sociology studies. Agent-based models are most appropriate for studying processes that lack central coordination, including the emergence of institutions that, once established, impose order from the top down. The models focus on how simple and predictable local interactions generate familiar but highly detailed global patterns, such as emergence of norms and participation of collective action. Michael W. Macy and Robert Willer researched a recent survey of applications and found that there were two main problems with agent-based modeling the self-organization of social structure and the emergence of social order 【(Macy & Willer 2002)】. Below is a brief description of each problem Macy and Willer believe there to be;

基于 agent 的建模在微观层面和宏观层面之间架起了一座桥梁，这是社会学研究的重要组成部分。基于agent的模型最适合于研究中缺乏中央协调的过程，包括出现的机构，一旦建立，从上到下施加秩序。这些模式侧重于简单且可预测的本地互动如何产生熟悉但非常详细的全球模式，如规范的出现和集体行动的参与。Michael W. Macy 和 Robert Willer 研究了最近的一项应用调查，发现基于 agent 的社会结构的自组织建模和社会秩序的出现存在两个主要问题。下面是Macy and Willer 认为存在的每个问题的简要描述:

  1. "Emergent structure. In these models, agents change location or behavior in response to social influences or selection pressures. Agents may start out undifferentiated and then change location or behavior so as to avoid becoming different or isolated (or in some cases, overcrowded). Rather than producing homogeneity, however, these conformist decisions aggregate to produce global patterns of cultural differentiation, stratification, and homophilic clustering in local networks. Other studies reverse the process, starting with a heterogeneous population and ending in convergence: the coordination, diffusion, and sudden collapse of norms, conventions, innovations, and technological standards."
  2. "Emergent social order. These studies show how egoistic adaptation can lead to successful collective action without either altruism or global (top down) imposition of control. A key finding across numerous studies is that the viability of trust, cooperation, and collective action depends decisively on the embeddedness of interaction."

1.“紧急结构。在这些模型中，agents根据社会影响或选择压力而改变地点或行为。agent可能刚开始时没有区别，然后改变位置或行为，以避免变得不同或孤立(或在某些情况下，过度拥挤)。然而，这些循规蹈矩的决定并没有产生同质性，而是聚合在一起，在本地网络中产生了文化分化、分层和同质聚集的全球模式。其他的研究则反其道而行之，从异质人口开始，以趋同结束: 规范、惯例、创新和技术标准的协调、扩散和突然崩溃。”

2.“新兴的社会秩序。这些研究表明，在没有利他主义或全球(自上而下)控制的情况下，利己主义适应可以导致成功的集体行动。众多研究的一个关键的发现是，信任、合作和集体行动的可行性决定性地取决于互动的嵌入性。”

These examples simply show the complexity of our environment and that agent-based models are designed to explore the minimal conditions, the simplest set of assumptions about human behavior, required for a given social phenomenon to emerge at a higher level of organization.

These examples simply show the complexity of our environment and that agent-based models are designed to explore the minimal conditions, the simplest set of assumptions about human behavior, required for a given social phenomenon to emerge at a higher level of organization.

这些例子只是展示了我们的环境的复杂性，基于agent的模型是为了探索最小条件，即关于人类行为的最简单的一套假设，这是特定社会现象在更高层次的组织中出现所必需的。

Criticisms

批评

Since its creation, computerized social simulation has been the target of some criticism in regard to its practicality and accuracy. Social simulation's simplification of the complex to form models from which we can better understand the latter is sometimes seen as a draw back, as using fairly simple models to simulate real life with computers is not always the best way to predict behavior.

Since its creation, computerized social simulation has been the target of some criticism in regard to its practicality and accuracy. Social simulation's simplification of the complex to form models from which we can better understand the latter is sometimes seen as a draw back, as using fairly simple models to simulate real life with computers is not always the best way to predict behavior.

计算机社会模拟自诞生以来，由于其实用性和准确性，一直受到一些批评。社会模拟将复杂的模型简化为我们可以更好地理解后者的模型，这有时被看作是一种退步，因为使用计算机和相当简单的模型来模拟现实生活并不总是预测行为的最佳方式。

Most of the criticism seems to be aimed at agent-based models and simulation and how they work:

Most of the criticism seems to be aimed at agent-based models and simulation and how they work:

大多数批评似乎都针对基于agent的模型和模拟，以及它们的工作方式:

  1. Simulations, being man-made from mathematical interfaces, predict human behavior in a far too simple manner in regard to the complexities of humanity and our actions.
  2. Simulations cannot enlighten researchers as to how people interact or behave in ways not programmed into their models. For this reason, the scope of simulations are limited in that the researchers must already know what they are going to find (to a degree, for they cannot find anything they themselves did not place in the model) at least vaguely, possibly skewing the results.
  3. Due to the complexities of what is being measured, simulations must be analyzed in unbiased ways; however, with the model running on a pre-made set of instructions coded into it by a modeler, biases exist almost universally.
  4. It is highly difficult and often impractical to attempt to link the findings from the abstract world the simulation creates and our complex society and all of its variation.
  1. 模拟，由数学接口人工制造的，在人类复杂的行为和我们的行为的复杂性方面，预测人类行为的方式过于简单。
  2. 模拟无法启发研究人员，让他们了解人们如何以未编入模型的方式进行互动或表现。出于这个原因，模拟的范围是有限的，因为研究人员必须已经知道他们将要发现什么(在一定程度上，因为他们无法找到任何他们自己没有放在模型中的东西) ，至少含糊不清，可能扭曲结果。
  3. 由于测量内容的复杂性，模拟必须以公正的方式进行模拟分析; 然而，由于模型运行在由建模着编码的预先设定的指令集上，偏差几乎普遍存在。
  4. 试图将模拟创造的抽象世界和我们复杂的社会及其变化联系起来是非常困难，而且往往是不切实际的。

Researchers working in social simulation might respond that the competing theories from the social sciences are far simpler than those achieved through simulation and therefore suffer the aforementioned drawbacks much more strongly. Theories in some social science tend to be linear models that are not dynamic, and are generally inferred from small laboratory experiments (laboratory tests are most common in psychology but rare in sociology, political science, economics and geography). The behavior of populations of agents under these models is rarely tested or verified against empirical observation.

Researchers working in social simulation might respond that the competing theories from the social sciences are far simpler than those achieved through simulation and therefore suffer the aforementioned drawbacks much more strongly. Theories in some social science tend to be linear models that are not dynamic, and are generally inferred from small laboratory experiments (laboratory tests are most common in psychology but rare in sociology, political science, economics and geography). The behavior of populations of agents under these models is rarely tested or verified against empirical observation.

从事社会模拟研究的研究人员可能会回应说，来自社会科学的竞争理论远比那些通过模拟得到的理论简单，因此更容易遭受上述弊端的影响。一些社会科学中的理论往往是线性模型，不是动态的，通常是从小型实验室实验中推断出来的(实验室测试在心理学中最常见，但在社会学、政治学、经济学和地理学中很少见)。在这些模型下，agent群体的行为很少根据经验观察被检验或验证。

See also

  • 基于 agent 的计算经济学
  • 基于 agent 的社会模拟
  • 人工意识
  • 人工现实
  • 人工社会
  • 计算社会学
  • Cliodynamics
  • 交互式在线角色
  • 《人工社会与社会模拟杂志》
  • 模拟现实
  • 分析与仿真的合成环境
  • 系统动态
  • 虚拟现实

References

  1. ↑ Hughes, H. P. N.; Clegg, C. W.; Robinson, M. A.; Crowder, R. M. (2012). "Agent-based modelling and simulation: The potential contribution to organizational psychology". Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology. 85 (3): 487–502. doi:10.1111/j.2044-8325.2012.02053.x.
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 Crowder, R. M.; Robinson, M. A.; Hughes, H. P. N.; Sim, Y. W. (2012). "The development of an agent-based modeling framework for simulating engineering team work". IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics - Part A: Systems and Humans. 42 (6): 1425–1439. doi:10.1109/TSMCA.2012.2199304.
  3. ↑ Robert Axelrod (1986): An Evolutionary Approach to Norms
  4. ↑ Felix Flentge, Daniel Polani and Thomas Uthmann (2001) Modelling the Emergence of Possession Norms using Memes
  5. ↑ Alexander Staller and Paolo Petta (2001): Introducing Emotions into the Computational Study of Social Norms: A First Evaluation
  6. ↑ See Martin Neumann (2008): Homo Socionicus: a Case Study of Simulation Models of Norms for an overview of the recent (as of 2008) research.
  7. ↑ José Castro Caldas and Helder Coelho (1999): The Origin of Institutions: socio-economic processes, choice, norms and conventions
  8. ↑ Dan Miodownik, Britt Cartrite and Ravi Bhavnani (2010): Between Replication and Docking: "Adaptive Agents, Political Institutions, and Civic Traditions" Revisited
  9. ↑ Christian Hahn, Bettina Fley, Michael Florian, Daniela Spresny and Klaus Fischer (2007) : Social Reputation: a Mechanism for Flexible Self-Regulation of Multiagent Systems
  10. ↑ JASSS vol. 14: Special section: Simulating the Social Processes of Science
  11. ↑ Sung-youn Kim (2011): A Model of Political Judgment: An Agent-Based Simulation of Candidate Evaluation
  12. ↑ Ramzi Suleiman and Ilan Fischer (2000) When One Decides for Many: The Effect of Delegation Methods on Cooperation in Simulated Inter-group Conflicts
  13. ↑ Marie-Edith Bissey, Mauro Carini and Guido Ortona (2004) ALEX3, a Simulation Program to Compare Electoral Systems


External links

  • JASSS - The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
  • ESSA - The European Social Simulation Association
  • CSSSA - The Computational Social Science Society of the Americas
  • JoSC - The Journal of Social Complexity
  • Entry on Social Simulation in the NCeSS Wiki
  • Centre for Research in Social Simulation, University of Surrey
  • Laboratory for Agent Based Social Simulation, National Research Council (CNR), Italy
  • Center for Policy Modelling, UK
  • Dynamics Lab University College Dublin Ireland
  • CASOS - Center for Computational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems


  • JASSS-The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
  • ESSA-The European Social Simulation Association
  • CSSSA-The Computational Social Science Society of The Americas
  • JoSC-The Journal of Social Complexity
  • Entry on Social Simulation in The NCeSS Wiki
  • Centre for Research in The Research in Agent Based Social Simulation，CNR，Italy
  • Center for Policy modeling，UK
  • Dynamics Lab 都柏林大学爱尔兰
  • CASOS-Center for Computational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems


Category:Social sciences Category:Simulation Category:Complex systems theory

范畴: 社会科学范畴: 模拟范畴: 复杂系统理论


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