遥相关
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Teleconnection in atmospheric science refers to climate anomalies being related to each other at large distances (typically thousands of kilometers). The most emblematic teleconnection is that linking sea-level pressure at Tahiti and Darwin, Australia, which defines the Southern Oscillation.
Teleconnection in atmospheric science refers to climate anomalies being related to each other at large distances (typically thousands of kilometers). The most emblematic teleconnection is that linking sea-level pressure at Tahiti and Darwin, Australia, which defines the Southern Oscillation.
大气中的遥相关（Teleconnection）是指相距很远的区域之间（一般是相距数千公里区域之间）相互影响和关联的气候异常。南方涛动（ENSO，EI-NINO-Southern Oscillation）是一个典型的遥相关现象。东南太平洋塔希提（148°05′W, 17°53′S）和澳大利亚达尔文（130°59′E,12°20S′）之间存在一种大尺度的气压升降振荡，当塔希提岛海平面气压变高时，达尔文海平面气压变低。达尔文和塔希提两地之间的海平面气压距平值被普遍用以表示南方涛动的特征指数，即SOI.
History
历史
Teleconnections were first noted by the British meteorologist Sir Gilbert Walker in the late 19th century, through computation of the correlation between time series of atmospheric pressure, temperature and rainfall. They served as a building block for the understanding of climate variability, by showing that the latter was not purely random.
Teleconnections were first noted by the British meteorologist Sir Gilbert Walker in the late 19th century, through computation of the correlation between time series of atmospheric pressure, temperature and rainfall. They served as a building block for the understanding of climate variability, by showing that the latter was not purely random.
英国气象学家吉尔伯特 · 沃克爵士在19世纪末通过计算大气压力、气温和降雨量的时间序列之间的相关性，首次注意到了遥相关。它们是理解气候变化的基石，因为它们表明气候变化并非完全随机的。
19世纪末 ，英国气象学家吉尔伯特·沃克爵士在计算大气压力、气温和降雨量时间序列数据之间的相关性时，首次注意到了遥相关现象。
Indeed, the term El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an implicit acknowledgment that the phenomenon underlies variability in several locations at once. It was later noticed that associated teleconnections occurred all over North America, as embodied by the Pacific–North American teleconnection pattern.
Indeed, the term El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an implicit acknowledgment that the phenomenon underlies variability in several locations at once. It was later noticed that associated teleconnections occurred all over North America, as embodied by the Pacific–North American teleconnection pattern.
事实上，厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)这个术语暗示了一种认识，即这种现象是几个地区同时发生变化的基础。后来人们注意到，相关的遥相关发生在整个北美洲，具体表现为太平洋-北美洲的遥相关模式。
In the 1980s, improved observations allowed detection of teleconnections at larger distances throughout the troposphere.[1] Concomitantly, the theory emerged that such patterns could be understood through the dispersion of Rossby waves due to the spherical geometry of the Earth.[2] This is sometimes called the "proto-model".[3]
In the 1980s, improved observations allowed detection of teleconnections at larger distances throughout the troposphere. Concomitantly, the theory emerged that such patterns could be understood through the dispersion of Rossby waves due to the spherical geometry of the Earth. This is sometimes called the "proto-model".
在1980年代，改进的观测使得在整个对流层的更大距离上探测遥相关成为可能。与此同时，理论表明这种模式可以通过由于地球的球面几何学而产生的 Rossby 波的弥散来理解。这有时被称为“原始模型”。
Theory
Teleconnections within the tropical Pacific began to be understood thanks to the idealized calculations of A.E. Gill[4] and later through more complex models.
Teleconnections within the tropical Pacific began to be understood thanks to the idealized calculations of A.E. Gill and later through more complex models.
热带太平洋内的遥相关理论开始被人们理解，这要归功于 a.e 的理想化计算。吉尔后来通过更复杂的模型。
Building upon the "proto-model", much of the early theory of teleconnections dealt with barotropic, linearized model of atmospheric flow about a constant mean state. However, the model was soon invalidated when it was discovered that actual teleconnection patterns were nearly insensitive to the location of the forcing, in direct contradiction with the predictions offered by this simple picture. Simmons and collaborators[5] showed that if a more realistic background state was prescribed, it would become unstable, leading to a similar pattern regardless of the location of the forcing, in accordance to observations. This "modal" property turned out to be an artifact of the barotropicity of the model, though it has appeared for more subtle reasons in more realistic models.
Building upon the "proto-model", much of the early theory of teleconnections dealt with barotropic, linearized model of atmospheric flow about a constant mean state. However, the model was soon invalidated when it was discovered that actual teleconnection patterns were nearly insensitive to the location of the forcing, in direct contradiction with the predictions offered by this simple picture. Simmons and collaborators showed that if a more realistic background state was prescribed, it would become unstable, leading to a similar pattern regardless of the location of the forcing, in accordance to observations. This "modal" property turned out to be an artifact of the barotropicity of the model, though it has appeared for more subtle reasons in more realistic models.
在“原始模式”的基础上，早期的遥相关理论大多涉及一个恒定平均状态下的正压线性化大气流动模式。然而，当发现实际的遥相关模式对强迫的位置几乎不敏感时，这个模型很快就失效了，这直接与这个简单的图片所提供的预测相矛盾。西蒙斯和他的合作者表明，如果一个更现实的背景状态被指定，它将变得不稳定，导致一个类似的模式，不管强迫的位置，根据观察。这种“模态”特性最终被证明是模式的正压性的人为产物，尽管在更为现实的模式中出现了更为微妙的原因。
More recent work has shown that most teleconnections from the tropics to the extratropics can be understood to surprising accuracy by the propagation of linear, planetary waves upon a 3-dimensional seasonally-varying basic state.[6] Because the patterns are persistent over time and somewhat "locked" to geographical features such as mountain ranges, these waves are called stationary.
More recent work has shown that most teleconnections from the tropics to the extratropics can be understood to surprising accuracy by the propagation of linear, planetary waves upon a 3-dimensional seasonally-varying basic state. Because the patterns are persistent over time and somewhat "locked" to geographical features such as mountain ranges, these waves are called stationary.
最近的工作表明，从热带到地外的大多数遥相关可以通过在三维季节性变化的基本状态上的线性行星波的传播理解为惊人的准确性。由于这些波形是持久的，并且有些“锁定”于地理特征，如山脉，这些波被称为静止的。
Another mechanism of teleconnection between tropical oceans and midlatitude regions is symmetric along latitude circles (i.e. "zonal") and between hemispheres, unlike the stationary wave mechanism. It relies on interactions between transient eddies and the mean atmospheric flow that are mutually reinforcing (i.e. non-linear). It has been shown to explain some aspects of ENSO teleconnections in temperature[7] and rainfall.[8] Other authors suggested, as well, a correlation between many teleconnection patterns and local climate change factors.[9]
Another mechanism of teleconnection between tropical oceans and midlatitude regions is symmetric along latitude circles (i.e. "zonal") and between hemispheres, unlike the stationary wave mechanism. It relies on interactions between transient eddies and the mean atmospheric flow that are mutually reinforcing (i.e. non-linear). It has been shown to explain some aspects of ENSO teleconnections in temperature and rainfall. Other authors suggested, as well, a correlation between many teleconnection patterns and local climate change factors.
热带海洋与中纬度地区遥相关的另一个机制是沿纬度圈的对称性(即纬度圈的对称性)。“区域”)和半球之间，不同于驻波机制。它依赖于瞬时涡旋和平均大气流之间的相互作用，这种相互作用是相辅相成的。非线性)。它已经解释了 ENSO 遥相关在温度和降水方面的一些方面。其他作者也提出了许多遥相关模式和当地气候变化因素之间的相关性。
Applications
Since tropical sea surface temperatures are predictable up to two years ahead of time,[10] knowledge of teleconnection patterns gives some amount of predictability in remote locations with an outlook sometimes as long as a few seasons.[11] For instance, predicting El Niño enables prediction of North American rainfall, snowfall, droughts or temperature patterns with a few weeks to months lead time. In Sir Gilbert Walker's time, A strong El Niño usually meant a weaker Indian monsoon, but this anticorrelation has weakened in the 1980s and 1990s, for controversial reasons.模板:Fact
Since tropical sea surface temperatures are predictable up to two years ahead of time, knowledge of teleconnection patterns gives some amount of predictability in remote locations with an outlook sometimes as long as a few seasons.IRI Seasonal Climate Forecasts For instance, predicting El Niño enables prediction of North American rainfall, snowfall, droughts or temperature patterns with a few weeks to months lead time. In Sir Gilbert Walker's time, A strong El Niño usually meant a weaker Indian monsoon, but this anticorrelation has weakened in the 1980s and 1990s, for controversial reasons.
由于热带海洋表面温度可以提前两年预测，遥相关模式的知识可以为偏远地区提供某种程度的可预测性，有时候可以预测几个季节。例如，预测厄尔尼诺现象可以预测北美洲的降雨、降雪、干旱或气温模式，提前几周到几个月。在吉尔伯特 · 沃克爵士的时代，强烈的厄尔尼诺现象通常意味着较弱的印度季风，但是这种反作用关系在20世纪80年代和90年代已经减弱，原因是有争议的。
See also
- Sudden stratospheric warming
= =
- 平流层突然变暖
References
- ↑ Wallace, John M.; Gutzler, David S. (1981). "Teleconnections in the Geopotential Height Field during the Northern Hemisphere Winter". Monthly Weather Review. 109 (4): 784. Bibcode:1981MWRv..109..784W. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<0784:TITGHF>2.0.CO;2.
- ↑ Hoskins, Brian J.; Karoly, David J. (1981). "The Steady Linear Response of a Spherical Atmosphere to Thermal and Orographic Forcing". Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 38 (6): 1179. Bibcode:1981JAtS...38.1179H. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1981)038<1179:TSLROA>2.0.CO;2.
- ↑ Trenberth, Kevin E.; Branstator, Grant W.; Karoly, David; Kumar, Arun; Lau, Ngar-Cheung; Ropelewski, Chester (1998). "Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures". Journal of Geophysical Research. 103 (C7): 14291–14324. Bibcode:1998JGR...10314291T. doi:10.1029/97JC01444.
- ↑ Gill, A. E. (1980). "Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation". Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 106 (449): 447–462. Bibcode:1980QJRMS.106..447G. doi:10.1002/qj.49710644905.
- ↑ Simmons, A. J.; Wallace, J. M.; Branstator, G. W. (1983). "Barotropic Wave Propagation and Instability, and Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns". Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 40 (6): 1363. Bibcode:1983JAtS...40.1363S. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1983)040<1363:BWPAIA>2.0.CO;2.
- ↑ Held, Isaac M.; Ting, Mingfang; Wang, Hailan (2002). "Northern Winter Stationary Waves: Theory and Modeling". Journal of Climate. 15 (16): 2125. Bibcode:2002JCli...15.2125H. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.140.5658. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2125:NWSWTA>2.0.CO;2.
- ↑ Seager, Richard; Harnik, Nili; Kushnir, Yochanan; Robinson, Walter; Miller, Jennifer (2003). "Mechanisms of Hemispherically Symmetric Climate Variability*". Journal of Climate. 16 (18): 2960. Bibcode:2003JCli...16.2960S. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2960:MOHSCV>2.0.CO;2.
- ↑ Seager, R.; Harnik, N.; Robinson, W. A.; Kushnir, Y.; Ting, M.; Huang, H.-P.; Velez, J. (2005). "Mechanisms of ENSO-forcing of hemispherically symmetric precipitation variability". Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 131 (608): 1501. Bibcode:2005QJRMS.131.1501S. doi:10.1256/qj.04.96.
- ↑ Ramadan, H. H.; Ramamurthy, A. S.; Beighley, R. E. (2011). "Inter-annual temperature and precipitation variations over the Litani Basin in response to atmospheric circulation patterns". Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 108 (3–4): 563. Bibcode:2012ThApC.108..563R. doi:10.1007/s00704-011-0554-1.
- ↑ Chen, Dake; Cane, Mark A.; Kaplan, Alexey; Zebiak, Stephen E.; Huang, Daji (2004). "Predictability of El Niño over the past 148 years". Nature. 428 (6984): 733–6. Bibcode:2004Natur.428..733C. doi:10.1038/nature02439. PMID 15085127.
- ↑ IRI Seasonal Climate Forecasts
Further reading
- Glantz, M.H; Katz, Richard W; Nicholls, N (1991). Teleconnections Linking Worldwide Climate Anomalies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-36475-1.
- Trenberth, Kevin E.; Branstator, Grant W.; Karoly, David; Kumar, Arun; Lau, Ngar-Cheung; Ropelewski, Chester (1998). "Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures". Journal of Geophysical Research. 103 (C7): 14291–14324. Bibcode:1998JGR...10314291T. doi:10.1029/97JC01444.
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External links
= = 外部链接 =
Category:Atmospheric sciences Category:Weather prediction Category:Climate patterns
分类: 大气科学分类: 天气预报分类: 气候模式
This page was moved from wikipedia:en:Teleconnection. Its edit history can be viewed at 遥相关/edithistory