# 因果推断 Causal inference

（重定向自因果推断

## 定义

• “...reason[ing] to the conclusion that something is, or is likely to be, the cause of something else.”（...推理出某事是（或可能是）其他事情的原因的结论。）[3]
• “Identification of the cause or causes of a phenomenon, by establishing covariation of cause and effect, a time-order relationship with the cause preceding the effect, and the elimination of plausible alternative causes.”（通过确定因果关系的共变性，前因后果的时序性，以及排除其它可能的替代原因，从而识别出现象的一个或多个原因。）[4]

## 在计算机科学领域

### 算法信息模型

• 通过未压缩的$\displaystyle{ Y }$存储$\displaystyle{ Y }$$\displaystyle{ X }$的压缩型。
• 通过未压缩的$\displaystyle{ X }$存储$\displaystyle{ X }$$\displaystyle{ Y }$的压缩型。

### 噪音模型

• 加性噪声 Additive noise[8] $\displaystyle{ Y = F(X)+E }$
• 线性噪声 Linear noise：[9] $\displaystyle{ Y = pX + qE }$
• 非线性后置 Post-non-linear[10] $\displaystyle{ Y = G(F(X)+E) }$
• 异方差噪声 Heteroskedastic noise$\displaystyle{ Y = F(X)+E.G(X) }$
• 功能性噪声 Functional noise[11] $\displaystyle{ Y = F(X,E) }$

• Y 不存在其他原因。
• X 和 E 不存在共同的原因。
• 原因的分布独立于因果机制 。

## 参见

• 因果分析 Causal analysis
• 多元统计 Multivariate statistics
• 偏最小二乘回归 Partial least squares regression
• 发病学 Pathogenesis
• 病理学 Pathology

## 参考文献

1. Pearl, Judea (1 January 2009). "Causal inference in statistics: An overview" (PDF). Statistics Surveys. 3: 96–146. doi:10.1214/09-SS057.
2. Morgan, Stephen; Winship, Chris (2007). Counterfactuals and Causal inference. Cambridge University Press.
3. "causal inference". Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc. Retrieved 24 August 2014.
4. John Shaughnessy; Eugene Zechmeister; Jeanne Zechmeister (2000). Research Methods in Psychology. McGraw-Hill Humanities/Social Sciences/Languages. pp. Chapter 1 : Introduction. Retrieved 24 August 2014.
5. Hill, Austin Bradford (1965). "The Environment and Disease: Association or Causation?". Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine. 58 (5): 295–300. doi:10.1177/003591576505800503. PMC 1898525. PMID 14283879.
6. Kailash Budhathoki and Jilles Vreeken "Causal Inference by Compression" 2016 IEEE 16th International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM)
7. Marx, Alexander; Vreeken, Jilles (2018). "Telling cause from effect by local and global regression". Knowledge and Information Systems. 60 (3): 1277–1305. doi:10.1007/s10115-018-1286-7.
8. Hoyer, Patrik O., et al. "Nonlinear causal discovery with additive noise models." NIPS. Vol. 21. 2008.
9. Shimizu, Shohei; et al. (2011). "DirectLiNGAM: A direct method for learning a linear non-Gaussian structural equation model" (PDF). The Journal of Machine Learning Research. 12: 1225–1248.
10. Zhang, Kun, and Aapo Hyvärinen. "On the identifiability of the post-nonlinear causal model." Proceedings of the Twenty-Fifth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence. AUAI Press, 2009.
11. Mooij, Joris M., et al. "Probabilistic latent variable models for distinguishing between cause and effect." NIPS. 2010.
12. Lopez-Paz, David, et al. "Towards a learning theory of cause-effect inference" ICML. 2015
13. Simon, Herbert (1977). Models of Discovery. Dordrecht: Springer. p. 52.
14. Maziarz, Mariusz (2020). The Philosophy of Causality in Economics: Causal Inferences and Policy Proposals. New York: Routledge.
15. Henschen, Tobias (2018). "The in-principle inconclusiveness of causal evidence in macroeconomics". European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 8: 709–733.
16. Angrist Joshua & Pischke Jörn-Steffen (2008). Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
17. King, Gary (2012). Designing social inquiry : scientific inference in qualitative research. Princeton Univ. Press. ISBN 978-0691034713.
18. Mahoney, James (January 2010). "After KKV". World Politics. 62 (1): 120–147. doi:10.1017/S0043887109990220.
19. Dominus, Susan (18 October 2017). "When the Revolution Came for Amy Cuddy". The New York Times (in English). ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2019-03-02.
20. "The Statistical Crisis in Science". American Scientist (in English). 6 February 2017. Retrieved 2019-04-18.
21. Creswell, John W.; Clark, Vicki L. Plano (2011) (in en). Designing and Conducting Mixed Methods Research. SAGE Publications. ISBN 9781412975179.
22. Seawright, Jason (September 2016) (in en). Multi-Method Social Science by Jason Seawright. doi:10.1017/CBO9781316160831. ISBN 9781316160831.
23. Smith, Herbert L. (10 February 2014). "Effects of Causes and Causes of Effects: Some Remarks from the Sociological Side". Sociological Methods and Research. 43 (3): 406–415. doi:10.1177/0049124114521149. PMC 4251584. PMID 25477697.
24. Goertz, Gary; Mahoney, James (2006). "A Tale of Two Cultures: Contrasting Quantitative and Qualitative Research". Political Analysis (in English). 14 (3): 227–249. doi:10.1093/pan/mpj017. ISSN 1047-1987.