61
个编辑
更改
跳到导航
跳到搜索
第41行：
第41行： − + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
无编辑摘要
* Homogeneous mixing of the population, i.e., individuals of the population under scrutiny assort and make contact at random and do not mix mostly in a smaller subgroup. This assumption is rarely justified because social structure is widespread. For example, most people in London only make contact with other Londoners. Further, within London then there are smaller subgroups, such as the Turkish community or teenagers (just to give two examples), who mix with each other more than people outside their group. However, homogeneous mixing is a standard assumption to make the mathematics tractable.
* Homogeneous mixing of the population, i.e., individuals of the population under scrutiny assort and make contact at random and do not mix mostly in a smaller subgroup. This assumption is rarely justified because social structure is widespread. For example, most people in London only make contact with other Londoners. Further, within London then there are smaller subgroups, such as the Turkish community or teenagers (just to give two examples), who mix with each other more than people outside their group. However, homogeneous mixing is a standard assumption to make the mathematics tractable.
* 群体的均匀混合，即受到仔细检查的群体中的个体随机分配并进行接触，并且大多不在较小的亚组中混合。 由于社会结构广泛，这种假设很少成立。 例如，伦敦的大多数人只与其他伦敦人接触。 此外，在伦敦，则有较小的子群体，例如土耳其社区或青少年（仅举两个例子），他们的交往比其他人更多。 但是，均匀混合是使数学易于处理的标准假设。
* 群体的均匀混合，即受到仔细检查且每个个体随机分配并进行接触的群体，并且其大多不在较小的亚组中混合。 由于社会结构多种多样，因此这种假设很少成立。 例如，伦敦的大多数人只与其他是伦敦人的人接触。 此外在伦敦，则有较小的子群体，例如土耳其社区或青少年（仅举两个例子），他们的交往比其他人更多。 但是不管怎样，均匀混合假设是更易于数学上的处理分析的标准假设。
== 流行病模型的类型 Types of epidemic models ==
=== 随机性 Stochastic ===
"Stochastic" means being or having a random variable. A stochastic model is a tool for estimating probability distributions of potential outcomes by allowing for random variation in one or more inputs over time. Stochastic models depend on the chance variations in risk of exposure, disease and other illness dynamics.
“随机”是指是或具有一个随机变量。 随机模型是用来估计潜在结果的概率分布的一种工具，它允许一个或多个随时间变化的随机变量的输入。 随机模型依赖于暴露风险，疾病和其他疾病动态的机会变化。
=== 确定性 Deterministic ===
When dealing with large populations, as in the case of tuberculosis, deterministic or compartmental mathematical models are often used. In a deterministic model, individuals in the population are assigned to different subgroups or compartments, each representing a specific stage of the epidemic.
在处理大量人群时，例如在结核病中，经常使用确定性或仓室模型。 在确定性模型中，人群中的个体被分配到不同的亚团体或不同仓室中，每个亚团体或仓室代表流行病的一个特定阶段。
The transition rates from one class to another are mathematically expressed as derivatives, hence the model is formulated using differential equations. While building such models, it must be assumed that the population size in a compartment is differentiable with respect to time and that the epidemic process is deterministic. In other words, the changes in population of a compartment can be calculated using only the history that was used to develop the model.[6]
从一类状态转变为另一类状态的转变速率在数学上可以用导数表示，因此可以使用微分方程来建立模型。在建立这样的模型时，必须假设仓室的人口规模在时间上是可区分的，并且流行过程是确定性的。 换句话说，只能使用用于建立模型的历史记录来计算仓室的人口变化。[6]
== 参考文献 References ==