系统中的12个杠杆点

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The twelve leverage points to intervene in a system were proposed by Donella Meadows, a scientist and system analyst focused on environmental limits to economic growth.[1]

“干预系统的十二个杠杆点”是由Donella Meadows提出的,他是一位科学家和系统分析员,专注于环境对经济增长的限制。[2]

The twelve leverage points to intervene in a system were proposed by Donella Meadows, a scientist and system analyst focused on environmental limits to economic growth.

这十二个杠杆点介入一个系统是由 Donella Meadows 提出的,他是一个专注于环境对经济增长的限制的科学家和系统分析家。


History 历史

The leverage points, first published in 1997, were inspired by Meadows' attendance at a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) meeting in the early 1990s, where she realized a very large new system was being proposed but the mechanisms to manage it were ineffective.

The leverage points, first published in 1997, were inspired by Meadows' attendance at a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) meeting in the early 1990s, where she realized a very large new system was being proposed but the mechanisms to manage it were ineffective.

1997年首次发表的杠杆观点是受到 Meadows 在1990年代初参加北美自由贸易协定会议的启发,当时她意识到正在提出一个非常大的新系统,但管理该系统的机制是无效的。


Meadows, who worked in the field of systems analysis, proposed a scale of places to intervene in a system. Awareness and manipulation of these levers is an aspect of self-organization and can lead to collective intelligence.

系统分析领域工作的梅多斯提出了干预系统的地方规模。意识和操纵这些杠杆是自组织的一个方面,可以导致集体智慧

Meadows, who worked in the field of systems analysis, proposed a scale of places to intervene in a system. Awareness and manipulation of these levers is an aspect of self-organization and can lead to collective intelligence.

从事系统分析领域的梅多斯提出了一个介入系统的范围。意识和操纵这些杠杆是自我组织的一个方面,可以导致集体智慧。


Her observations are often cited in energy economics, green economics and human development theory.

她的观点经常在能源经济学绿色经济学人类发展理论中被引用。

Her observations are often cited in energy economics, green economics and human development theory.

她的观点经常被能源经济学、绿色经济学和人类发展理论引用。


She started with the observation that there are levers, or places within a complex system (such as a firm, a city, an economy, a living being, an ecosystem, an ecoregion) where a "small shift in one thing can produce big changes in everything" (compare: constraint in the sense of Theory of Constraints).

她首先观察到在一个复杂系统(例如一个公司、一个城市、一个经济体、一个生物、一个生态系统、一个生态区域)中有一些杠杆或地方,“一件事情上的一个小的转变可以在所有事情上产生大的变化”(比较:从约束理论意义上的约束)。

She started with the observation that there are levers, or places within a complex system (such as a firm, a city, an economy, a living being, an ecosystem, an ecoregion) where a "small shift in one thing can produce big changes in everything" (compare: constraint in the sense of Theory of Constraints).

她首先观察到,在一个复杂系统中存在一些杠杆或地方(如公司、城市、经济、生命体、生态系统、生态区) ,“一件事的一个小小改变可以引起一切的大变化”(比较: 限制理论意义上的约束)。


She claimed we need to know about these shifts, where they are and how to use them. She said most people know where these points are instinctively, but tend to adjust them in the wrong direction. This understanding would help solve global problems such as unemployment, hunger, economic stagnation, pollution, resources depletion, and conservation issues.

She claimed we need to know about these shifts, where they are and how to use them. She said most people know where these points are instinctively, but tend to adjust them in the wrong direction. This understanding would help solve global problems such as unemployment, hunger, economic stagnation, pollution, resources depletion, and conservation issues.

她声称我们需要知道这些变化,它们在哪里,以及如何使用它们。她说,大多数人本能地知道这些点在哪里,但往往会将它们调整到错误的方向。这种认识将有助于解决全球性问题,如失业、饥饿、经济停滞、污染、资源枯竭和保护问题。


Meadows started with a 9-point list of such places, and expanded it to a list of twelve leverage points with explanation and examples, for systems in general.

Meadows started with a 9-point list of such places, and expanded it to a list of twelve leverage points with explanation and examples, for systems in general.

梅多斯开始列出了这些地方的9点清单,并将其扩展为一个包含十二个杠杆点的清单,同时附带了一般系统的解释和例子。


She describes a system as being in a certain state, and containing a stock, with inflows (amounts coming into the system) and outflows (amounts going out of the system). At a given time, the system is in a certain perceived state. There may also be a goal for the system to be in a certain state. The difference between the current state and the goal is the discrepancy.

她将系统描述为处于某种状态,包含库存,有流入(流入系统的金额)和流出(流出系统的金额)。在给定的时间,系统处于某种可感知的状态。系统还可能有一个目标处于某个状态。当前状态和目标之间的不同即为差异。

She describes a system as being in a certain state, and containing a stock, with inflows (amounts coming into the system) and outflows (amounts going out of the system). At a given time, the system is in a certain perceived state. There may also be a goal for the system to be in a certain state. The difference between the current state and the goal is the discrepancy.

她将一个系统描述为处于某种状态,包含一只股票,有流入(流入系统的数量)和流出(流出系统的数量)。在给定的时间,系统处于一定的感知状态。系统也可能有一个目标,使其处于某种状态。当前状态和目标之间的差异就是差异。


{{quote|For example, one might consider a lake or reservoir, which contains a certain amount of water. The inflows are the amount of water coming from rivers, rainfall, drainage from nearby soils, and waste water from a local industrial plant. The outflows might be the amount of water used up for irrigation of nearby cornfield, water taken by that local plant to operate as well as the local camping site, water evaporating in the atmosphere, and trickling surplus water when the reservoir is full.

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这是感知状态(污染或低水位)和目标(未受污染的湖泊)之间的区别


Leverage points to intervene in a system利用点来干预系统

The following are in increasing order of effectiveness.

The following are in increasing order of effectiveness.

以下是效力递增的顺序。


12. Constants, parameters, numbers (such as subsidies, taxes, standards) 12常量、参数、数字(如补贴、税收、标准)

Parameters are points of lowest leverage effects. Though they are the most clearly perceived among all leverages, they rarely change behaviors and therefore have little long-term effect.

Parameters are points of lowest leverage effects. Though they are the most clearly perceived among all leverages, they rarely change behaviors and therefore have little long-term effect.

参数是杠杆效应最低的点。虽然他们是所有杠杆中感知最清楚的,但他们很少改变行为,因此几乎没有长期影响。


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{{例如,气候参数可能不容易改变(降雨量,蒸散量速率,水温),但它们是人们最先想到的(他们记得年轻时,雨肯定下得更多)。这些参数确实非常重要。但是,即使改变了(改善上游河流以疏导来水),他们的行为也不会有太大的改变(债务可能不会大幅减少)。}}

11. The size of buffers and other stabilizing stocks, relative to their flows 11. 相对于它们的流量,缓冲和其他稳定库存的大小,

A buffer's ability to stabilize a system is important when the stock amount is much higher than the potential amount of inflows or outflows. In the lake, the water is the buffer: if there's a lot more of it than inflow/outflow, the system stays stable.

A buffer's ability to stabilize a system is important when the stock amount is much higher than the potential amount of inflows or outflows. In the lake, the water is the buffer: if there's a lot more of it than inflow/outflow, the system stays stable.

当库存量远远高于潜在的流入或流出量时,缓冲区稳定系统的能力非常重要。在湖泊中,水是缓冲器: 如果有比流入/流出更多的水,系统就会保持稳定。


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然而,湖水的热容量很大,所以它是一个很强的热缓冲器。如果释放在足够低的深度,在温跃层下进行,而且湖泊的体积足够大,水的缓冲能力可以防止任何过高温度引起的物种灭绝


Buffers can improve a system, but they are often physical entities whose size is critical and can't be changed easily.

Buffers can improve a system, but they are often physical entities whose size is critical and can't be changed easily.

缓冲区可以改进系统,但它们通常是物理实体,其大小是关键的,不容易更改。


10. Structure of material stocks and flows (such as transport network, population age structures)10物质储备和流动结构(如运输网络、人口年龄结构)

A system's structure may have enormous effect on operations, but may be difficult or prohibitively expensive to change. Fluctuations, limitations, and bottlenecks may be easier to address.

一个系统的结构可能会对操作产生巨大的影响,但可能很难改变或代价高昂。波动、限制和瓶颈可能更容易解决。


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{{引用}例如,居民们担心他们的湖泊受到污染,因为工业没有经过任何处理就直接在水中释放化学污染物。系统可能需要将用过的水转移到废水处理厂,但这需要重建地下用过的水系统(这可能非常昂贵)}}

9. Length of delays, relative to the rate of system changes 9相对于系统变化率的延迟长度

Information received too quickly or too late can cause over- or underreaction, even oscillations.

信息接收得太快或太晚都会导致反应过度或反应不足,甚至出现振荡。


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模板:引用

8. Strength of negative feedback loops, relative to the effect they are trying to correct against 8 相对于他们试图纠正的效果,负反馈循环的强度

A negative feedback loop slows down a process, tending to promote stability. The loop will keep the stock near the goal, thanks to parameters, accuracy and speed of information feedback, and size of correcting flows.

A negative feedback loop slows down a process, tending to promote stability. The loop will keep the stock near the goal, thanks to parameters, accuracy and speed of information feedback, and size of correcting flows.

一个负反馈循环减慢了一个过程,倾向于促进稳定。由于参数、信息反馈的准确性和速度以及校正流的大小,该循环将使库存保持在目标附近。

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{{举例来说,一种避免湖水污染越来越严重的方法可能是根据测量的污水浓度对工业工厂征收额外的税。比如说,工厂管理层必须每周或每月向水资源管理基金支付一笔款项,具体取决于在湖中发现的实际废物数量;在这种情况下,他们将从减少废物产量中获得直接收益,而且实际上减少了废物产量,从而达到降低湖中污染物浓度的预期效果。他们不能从“更缓慢地造成损害”中获益——只能从实际的帮助中获益。如果减少排放,即使是零排放,也不足以让湖泊自然地清除废物,那么他们仍将面临清理的困境。这与美国的“超级基金”制度相似,遵循了广为接受的“污染者付费”原则。}}

7. Gain around driving positive feedback loops 7 驱动正反馈回路的增益

A positive feedback loop speeds up a process. Meadows indicates that in most cases, it is preferable to slow down a positive loop, rather than speeding up a negative one.

A positive feedback loop speeds up a process. Meadows indicates that in most cases, it is preferable to slow down a positive loop, rather than speeding up a negative one.

一个正反馈循环加速了一个过程。梅多斯Meadows 指出,在大多数情况下,最好放慢一个积极的循环,而不是加快一个消极的循环。


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然而,这种降解会耗尽可用的氧气,并且在存在大量有机物质的情况下降解,培养基逐渐变成缺氧(没有更多的氧气可用)。随着时间的推移,所有依赖氧气的生命死亡,湖泊变成了一个臭气熏天缺氧的地方,没有生命可以生存(特别是没有鱼)

6. Structure of information flow (who does and does not have access to what kinds of information) 6 信息流的结构(谁有权和无权访问哪些类型的信息)

Information flow is neither a parameter, nor a reinforcing or slowing loop, but a loop that delivers new information. It is cheaper and easier to change information flows than it is to change structure.

Information flow is neither a parameter, nor a reinforcing or slowing loop, but a loop that delivers new information. It is cheaper and easier to change information flows than it is to change structure.

信息流既不是一个参数,也不是一个加强或减缓的循环,而是一个传递新信息的循环。与改变结构相比,改变信息流更便宜,也更容易。


For example, a monthly public report of water pollution level, especially nearby the industrial release, could have a lot of effect on people's opinions regarding the industry, and lead to changes in the waste water level of pollution.

For example, a monthly public report of water pollution level, especially nearby the industrial release, could have a lot of effect on people's opinions regarding the industry, and lead to changes in the waste water level of pollution.

例如,每月公布一份水污染水平报告,特别是附近的工业泄漏,可能会对人们对工业的看法产生很大影响,并导致污染废水水平的变化。

5. Rules of the system (such as incentives, punishment, constraints) 5 制度规则(如激励、惩罚、约束)

Pay attention to rules, and to who makes them.

Pay attention to rules, and to who makes them.

注意规则,以及制定规则的人。


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模板:举例来说,加强有关化学品排放限制的法律,或增加任何含有特定污染物的水的税额,都将对湖泊水质产生非常强烈的影响。

4. Power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure 4 添加、更改、发展或自组织系统结构的权力

Self-organization describes a system's ability to change itself by creating new structures, adding new negative and positive feedback loops, promoting new information flows, or making new rules.

自组织描述了一个系统通过创建新的结构、添加新的正负反馈循环、促进新的信息流或制定新的规则来改变自身的能力。


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{{举例来说,微生物不仅有能力改变以适应新的污染环境,而且有能力经历进化,使其能够生物降解或生物累积化学污染物。系统的一部分参与自身生态进化的能力是变革的主要杠杆。}}

3. Goal of the system 3 系统的目标

Changing goals changes every item listed above: parameters, feedback loops, information and self-organization.

改变目标会改变上面列出的每一项:参数、反馈循环、信息和自组织。

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{{引用}市议会的一项决定可能是改变湖泊的目标,使其成为一个公共和私人使用的免费设施,变成一个更为游客导向的设施或保护区域。这一目标的改变将影响上述几个杠杆点:有关水质的信息将成为强制性的,任何非法排放都将受到法律惩罚。}}

2. Mindset or paradigm that the system — its goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters — arises from 2 系统的目标、结构、规则、延迟、参数产生的心态或范式

A societal paradigm is an idea, a shared unstated assumption, or a system of thought that is the foundation of complex social structures. Paradigms are very hard to change, but there are no limits to paradigm change. Meadows indicates paradigms might be changed by repeatedly and consistently pointing out anomalies and failures in the current paradigm to those with open minds.

A societal paradigm is an idea, a shared unstated assumption, or a system of thought that is the foundation of complex social structures. Paradigms are very hard to change, but there are no limits to paradigm change. Meadows indicates paradigms might be changed by repeatedly and consistently pointing out anomalies and failures in the current paradigm to those with open minds.

社会范式是一个观念,一个共享的潜在假设,或一种思想体系,是复杂社会结构的基础。范式很难改变,但范式的改变是没有限制的。梅多斯指出,通过反复不断地向那些思想开放的人指出当前范式中的异常和失败,范式可能会发生改变。


A current paradigm is "Nature is a stock of resources to be converted to human purpose". What might happen to the lake were this collective idea changed ?

A current paradigm is "Nature is a stock of resources to be converted to human purpose". What might happen to the lake were this collective idea changed ?

当前的一个范例是“自然是一个资源库,可以转化为人类的目的”。如果这个集体观念改变了,湖水会发生什么?

1. Power to transcend paradigms 1 超越范式的力量

Transcending paradigms may go beyond challenging fundamental assumptions, into the realm of changing the values and priorities that lead to the assumptions, and being able to choose among value sets at will.

超越范式可以超越对基本假设的挑战,进入改变导致假设的价值和优先次序的领域,并能够在价值集合中随意选择。


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模板:引述

See also 请参阅

References参考文献

  1. Meadows, Donella (2008). Thinking in Systems: A Primer. Chelsea Green Publishing. p. 145–165. ISBN 978-1-60358-055-7. 
  2. Meadows, Donella (2008). Thinking in Systems: A Primer. Chelsea Green Publishing. p. 145–165. ISBN 978-1-60358-055-7. 


模板:Systems science

模板:系统科学

Category:Futures studies

类别: 未来研究

Category:Systems theory

范畴: 系统论

Category:Theory of constraints

类别: 限制理论


This page was moved from wikipedia:en:Twelve leverage points. Its edit history can be viewed at 系统中的12个杠杆点/edithistory

此页摘自维基百科:英文:12个杠杆点。其编辑历史可在系统中的12个杠杆点/编辑历史查阅