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Ray Kurzweil假设了一个加速回报定律，其中技术变革的速度（更广泛地说，所有进化过程<ref name=:36>Ray Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines, Viking; 1999, ISBN 978-0-14-028202-3. pp. 30, 32 Archived 2021-02-15 at the Wayback Machine</ref>）急剧增长。从1986年到2007年，摩尔定律以与莫拉维克提案相同的方式呈指数增长，并包括材料技术（尤其是应用于纳米技术）、医疗技术和其他技术，<ref name=:37>Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near, Penguin Group, 2005</ref>计算机计算人均信息的特定应用能力大约每14个月翻一番；世界通用计算机的人均容量每18个月翻一番；全球人均电信容量每34个月翻一番；世界人均存储容量每40个月翻一番。<ref name="HilbertLopez2011">[http://www.sciencemag.org/content/332/6025/60 "The World's Technological Capacity to Store, Communicate, and Compute Information"], Martin Hilbert and Priscila López (2011), Science (journal)|Science, 332(6025), 60–65; free access to the article through here: martinhilbert.net/WorldInfoCapacity.html</ref> 另一方面，有人认为，以21世纪奇点为参数的全球加速度模式应该被描述为双曲线增长而不是指数型。<ref>[https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-33730-8 ''The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures. A Big History Perspective''] (Springer, 2020)</ref>
Ray Kurzweil假设了一个加速回报定律，其中技术变革的速度（更广泛地说，所有进化过程<ref name=:36>Ray Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines, Viking; 1999, ISBN 978-0-14-028202-3. pp. 30, 32 Archived 2021-02-15 at the Wayback Machine</ref>）急剧增长。从1986年到2007年，摩尔定律以与莫拉维克提案相同的方式呈指数增长，并包括材料技术（尤其是应用于纳米技术）、医疗技术和其他技术，<ref name=:37>Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near, Penguin Group, 2005</ref>计算机计算人均信息的特定应用能力大约每14个月翻一番；世界通用计算机的人均容量每18个月翻一番；全球人均电信容量每34个月翻一番；世界人均存储容量每40个月翻一番。<ref name="HilbertLopez2011">[http://www.sciencemag.org/content/332/6025/60 "The World's Technological Capacity to Store, Communicate, and Compute Information"], Martin Hilbert and Priscila López (2011), Science (journal)|Science, 332(6025), 60–65; free access to the article through here: martinhilbert.net/WorldInfoCapacity.html</ref> 另一方面，有人认为，以21世纪奇点为参数的全球加速度模式应该被描述为双曲线增长而不是指数型。<ref>[https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-33730-8 ''The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures. A Big History Perspective''] (Springer, 2020)</ref>
库兹韦尔将“奇点”一词用于描述人工智能（相对于其他技术）的快速增长，例如他写道：“奇点将允许我们超越生物体和大脑的局限……后奇点时代，人类与机器之间将不再有区别。”<ref name="singularity3"/>库兹韦尔相信奇点将在大约2045年之前出现，那时基于计算机的智能将明显超越人类脑力的总和，在这个日期之前计算机技术的进步“并不代表奇点”，因为它们“还不符合智慧的深刻扩展”。<ref name="transformation"/>
库兹韦尔将“奇点”一词用于描述人工智能（相对于其他技术）的快速增长，例如他写道：“奇点将允许我们超越生物体和大脑的局限……后奇点时代，人类与机器之间将不再有区别。”<ref name=:40>Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near, p. 9. Penguin Group, 2005</ref>库兹韦尔相信奇点将在大约2045年之前出现，那时基于计算机的智能将明显超越人类脑力的总和，在这个日期之前计算机技术的进步“并不代表奇点”，因为它们“还不符合智慧的深刻扩展”。<ref name=:41>Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near, pp. 135–136. Penguin Group, 2005. "So we will be producing about 1026 to 1029 cps of nonbiological computation per year in the early 2030s. This is roughly equal to our estimate for the capacity of all living biological human intelligence ... This state of computation in the early 2030s will not represent the Singularity, however, because it does not yet correspond to a profound expansion of our intelligence. By the mid-2040s, however, that one thousand dollars' worth of computation will be equal to 1026 cps, so the intelligence created per year (at a total cost of about $1012) will be about one billion times more powerful than all human intelligence today. That will indeed represent a profound change, and it is for that reason that I set the date for the Singularity—representing a profound and disruptive transformation in human capability—as 2045."</ref>
====加速变革====
====加速变革====