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{{Short description|Perceived increase in the rate of technological change throughout history}}

{{Short description|Perceived increase in the rate of technological change throughout history}}

In futures studies and the history of technology, accelerating change is a perceived increase in the rate of technological change throughout history, which may suggest faster and more profound change in the future and may or may not be accompanied by equally profound social and cultural change.

In futures studies and the history of technology, accelerating change is a perceived increase in the rate of technological change throughout history, which may suggest faster and more profound change in the future and may or may not be accompanied by equally profound social and cultural change.

== Early observations ==

== 早期观察 ==

In 1910 during the town planning conference of London [[Daniel Burnham]] noted, "But it is not merely in the number of facts or sorts of knowledge that progress lies: it is still more in the geometric ratio of sophistication, in the [[geometric growth|geometric widening]] of the sphere of knowledge, which every year is taking in a larger percentage of people as time goes on."<ref name="Transactions">{{Cite book|url=https://archive.org/details/transactions00town|title=Transactions|first1=England)|last1=Town Planning Conference (1910 : London|last2=Royal Institute of British Architects|date=8 July 2018|publisher=London : Royal Institute of British Architects|via=Internet Archive}}</ref> And later on, "It is the argument with which I began, that a mighty change having come about in fifty years, and our pace of development having immensely accelerated, our sons and grandsons are going to demand and get results that would stagger us."<ref name="Transactions"/>

In 1910 during the town planning conference of London [[Daniel Burnham]] noted, "But it is not merely in the number of facts or sorts of knowledge that progress lies: it is still more in the geometric ratio of sophistication, in the [[geometric growth|geometric widening]] of the sphere of knowledge, which every year is taking in a larger percentage of people as time goes on."<ref name="Transactions">{{Cite book|url=https://archive.org/details/transactions00town|title=Transactions|first1=England)|last1=Town Planning Conference (1910 : London|last2=Royal Institute of British Architects|date=8 July 2018|publisher=London : Royal Institute of British Architects|via=Internet Archive}}</ref> And later on, "It is the argument with which I began, that a mighty change having come about in fifty years, and our pace of development having immensely accelerated, our sons and grandsons are going to demand and get results that would stagger us."<ref name="Transactions"/>

In 1910 during the town planning conference of London Daniel Burnham noted, "But it is not merely in the number of facts or sorts of knowledge that progress lies: it is still more in the geometric ratio of sophistication, in the geometric widening of the sphere of knowledge, which every year is taking in a larger percentage of people as time goes on." And later on, "It is the argument with which I began, that a mighty change having come about in fifty years, and our pace of development having immensely accelerated, our sons and grandsons are going to demand and get results that would stagger us."

1910年在伦敦城市规划会议上，丹尼尔 · 伯纳姆（[[Daniel Burnham]]）指出:“进步的基础，不仅仅只是事实或知识在数量上的堆砌，而是这些知识所呈现出的指数级的复杂度，和知识所涉足的领域的几何级数性的扩展，随着时间的推移，越来越多的人会参与到知识的创造过程中。” 在他发言的最后，他再次强调，“正如我一开始所提出来的观点，接下来的50年，会发生巨大的变化，发展的步伐会大大加快。等到我们的儿辈孙辈那个时候，他们对社会对变化的渴求，对技术的可能性的憧憬和要求，一定会令今天在座的我们震惊。”

 

= = 早期观察 = = 1910年在伦敦城市规划会议期间，丹尼尔 · 伯纳姆指出:”但是，进步不仅仅在于事实或知识的数量: 更多的是在于复杂程度的几何比，在于知识领域的几何扩展，随着时间的推移，这一领域每年吸引的人口比例越来越大后来，“我开始的论点是，50年来发生了巨大的变化，我们的发展步伐已经大大加快，我们的子孙将要求并得到令我们震惊的结果。”

In 1938, [[Buckminster Fuller]] introduced the word [[ephemeralization]] to describe the trends of "doing more with less" in chemistry, health and other areas of [[industrial development]].<ref>[[Buckminster Fuller|R. Buckminster Fuller]], ''[[Nine Chains to the Moon]]'', [[Southern Illinois University Press]] [1938] 1963 pp.&nbsp;276–79.</ref>  In 1946, Fuller published a chart of the discoveries of the chemical elements over time to highlight the development of accelerating acceleration in human knowledge acquisition.<ref>[[Buckminster Fuller|R. Buckminster Fuller]], ''[[Synergetics (Fuller)]]'', http://www.rwgrayprojects.com/synergetics/s04/figs/f1903.html</ref>

In 1938, [[Buckminster Fuller]] introduced the word [[ephemeralization]] to describe the trends of "doing more with less" in chemistry, health and other areas of [[industrial development]].<ref>[[Buckminster Fuller|R. Buckminster Fuller]], ''[[Nine Chains to the Moon]]'', [[Southern Illinois University Press]] [1938] 1963 pp.&nbsp;276–79.</ref>  In 1946, Fuller published a chart of the discoveries of the chemical elements over time to highlight the development of accelerating acceleration in human knowledge acquisition.<ref>[[Buckminster Fuller|R. Buckminster Fuller]], ''[[Synergetics (Fuller)]]'', http://www.rwgrayprojects.com/synergetics/s04/figs/f1903.html</ref>

In 1938, Buckminster Fuller introduced the word ephemeralization to describe the trends of "doing more with less" in chemistry, health and other areas of industrial development.R. Buckminster Fuller, Nine Chains to the Moon, Southern Illinois University Press [1938] 1963 pp. 276–79.  In 1946, Fuller published a chart of the discoveries of the chemical elements over time to highlight the development of accelerating acceleration in human knowledge acquisition.R. Buckminster Fuller, Synergetics (Fuller), http://www.rwgrayprojects.com/synergetics/s04/figs/f1903.html

In 1938, Buckminster Fuller introduced the word ephemeralization to describe the trends of "doing more with less" in chemistry, health and other areas of industrial development. In 1946, Fuller published a chart of the discoveries of the chemical elements over time to highlight the development of accelerating acceleration in human knowledge acquisition.R. Buckminster Fuller, Synergetics (Fuller), http://www.rwgrayprojects.com/synergetics/s04/figs/f1903.html

1938年，巴克敏斯特·福乐引入了商品陈旧加速化一词来描述化学、健康和其他工业发展领域中“少花钱多办事”的趋势。巴克敏斯特·福乐，《九条通往月球的链条》 ，南伊利诺伊斯大学出版社[1938]1963页。276–79.1946年，富勒发表了一张化学元素随时间演变的发现图表，以强调加速人类知识获取的发展。巴克敏斯特·福乐，协同学(Fuller) ， http://www.rwgrayprojects.com/Synergetics/s04/figs/f1903.html

1938年，巴克敏斯特·富勒（Buckminster Fuller）引入了Ephermeralization这个概念来描述化学、医疗保健和其他工业发展领域中“少花钱多办事”的趋势946年，富勒发表了一张化学元素随时间演变的发现图表，以强调加速人类知识获取的发展。巴克敏斯特·富勒，协同学(Fuller) ， http://www.rwgrayprojects.com/Synergetics/s04/figs/f1903.html

In 1958, [[Stanislaw Ulam]] wrote in reference to a conversation with [[John von Neumann]]: {{quote|One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.<ref name="mathematical">{{cite journal|url=https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-5-JeCa2Z7hbWcxTGsyU09HSTg/edit?pli=1 | last=Ulam|first=Stanislaw |title=Tribute to John von Neumann|publisher=Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society|volume= 64, nr 3, part 2|date=May 1958|page=5}}</ref>}}

In 1958, [[Stanislaw Ulam]] wrote in reference to a conversation with [[John von Neumann]]: {{quote|One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.<ref name="mathematical">{{cite journal|url=https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-5-JeCa2Z7hbWcxTGsyU09HSTg/edit?pli=1 | last=Ulam|first=Stanislaw |title=Tribute to John von Neumann|publisher=Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society|volume= 64, nr 3, part 2|date=May 1958|page=5}}</ref>}}

{{quote|The mindsteps... appear to have certain things in common - a new and unfolding human perspective, related inventions in the area of memes and communications, and a long formulative waiting period before the next mindstep comes along. None of the mindsteps can be said to have been truly anticipated, and most were resisted at the early stages. In looking to the future we may equally be caught unawares. We may have to grapple with the presently inconceivable, with mind-stretching discoveries and concepts.}}

{{quote|The mindsteps... appear to have certain things in common - a new and unfolding human perspective, related inventions in the area of memes and communications, and a long formulative waiting period before the next mindstep comes along. None of the mindsteps can be said to have been truly anticipated, and most were resisted at the early stages. In looking to the future we may equally be caught unawares. We may have to grapple with the presently inconceivable, with mind-stretching discoveries and concepts.}}

[[Image:PPTMASSuseInventionsLogPRINT.jpg|thumb|right|200px|Mass use of inventions: Years until use by a quarter of US population]]

[[Image:PPTMASSuseInventionsLogPRINT.jpg|thumb|right|200px|Mass use of inventions: Years until use by a quarter of US population|链接=Special:FilePath/PPTMASSuseInventionsLogPRINT.jpg]]