更改

 

In futures studies and the history of technology, accelerating change is a perceived increase in the rate of technological change throughout history, which may suggest faster and more profound change in the future and may or may not be accompanied by equally profound social and cultural change.

In futures studies and the history of technology, accelerating change is a perceived increase in the rate of technological change throughout history, which may suggest faster and more profound change in the future and may or may not be accompanied by equally profound social and cultural change.

In 1938, Buckminster Fuller introduced the word ephemeralization to describe the trends of "doing more with less" in chemistry, health and other areas of industrial development. In 1946, Fuller published a chart of the discoveries of the chemical elements over time to highlight the development of accelerating acceleration in human knowledge acquisition.R. Buckminster Fuller, Synergetics (Fuller), http://www.rwgrayprojects.com/synergetics/s04/figs/f1903.html

In 1938, Buckminster Fuller introduced the word ephemeralization to describe the trends of "doing more with less" in chemistry, health and other areas of industrial development. In 1946, Fuller published a chart of the discoveries of the chemical elements over time to highlight the development of accelerating acceleration in human knowledge acquisition.R. Buckminster Fuller, Synergetics (Fuller), http://www.rwgrayprojects.com/synergetics/s04/figs/f1903.html

1938年，巴克敏斯特·富勒（Buckminster Fuller）引入了Ephermeralization这个概念来描述化学、医疗保健和其他工业发展领域中“少花钱多办事”的趋势946年，富勒发表了一张化学元素随时间演变的发现图表，以强调加速人类知识获取的发展。巴克敏斯特·富勒，协同学(Fuller) ， http://www.rwgrayprojects.com/Synergetics/s04/figs/f1903.html

1938年，巴克敏斯特·富勒（Buckminster Fuller）引入了Ephermeralization这个概念来描述化学、医疗保健和其他工业发展领域中“少花钱多办事”的趋势。1946年，富勒发表了一张化学元素发现的时间表，展示了人类加速获取的知识的趋势。http://www.rwgrayprojects.com/Synergetics/s04/figs/f1903.html

In 1958, [[Stanislaw Ulam]] wrote in reference to a conversation with [[John von Neumann]]: {{quote|One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.<ref name="mathematical">{{cite journal|url=https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-5-JeCa2Z7hbWcxTGsyU09HSTg/edit?pli=1 | last=Ulam|first=Stanislaw |title=Tribute to John von Neumann|publisher=Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society|volume= 64, nr 3, part 2|date=May 1958|page=5}}</ref>}}

In 1958, [[Stanislaw Ulam]] wrote in reference to a conversation with [[John von Neumann]]: {{quote|One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.<ref name="mathematical">}}

In 1958, Stanislaw Ulam wrote in reference to a conversation with John von Neumann:  

In 1958, Stanislaw Ulam wrote in reference to a conversation with John von Neumann: "One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue".

1958年，Stanislaw Ulam 在与约翰·冯·诺伊曼的一次谈话中写道:

1958年，Stanislaw Ulam 在致敬约翰·冯·诺伊曼的文中，回忆起他们之间的一次谈话：“那次谈话就围绕了，日益加快的技术进步和人类生活方式的变革。这些现象让人感觉，人类在这场旷日持久的科技竞赛中，正在接近本性基点（essential singularity）的界限。一旦跨越这个界限，人类活动便无法维系。”

==Moravec's ''Mind Children''==

==Moravec's ''Mind Children (莫拉维克的思想之子）''==

In a series of published articles from 1974–1979, and then in his 1988 book ''Mind Children'', computer scientist and futurist [[Hans Moravec]] generalizes [[Moore's law]] to make predictions about the future of artificial life. Moore's law describes an [[exponential growth]] pattern in the complexity of integrated semiconductor circuits. Moravec extends this to include technologies from long before the integrated circuit to future forms of technology. Moravec outlines a timeline and a scenario<ref>{{cite journal| url=http://www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm| journal=Journal of Evolution and Technology| date=1998| volume=1| title=When will computer hardware match the human brain?| first=Hans| last=Moravec| access-date=2006-06-23| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060615031852/http://transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm| archive-date=15 June 2006| url-status=dead}}</ref><ref>{{cite web| url=http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/general.articles/1993/Robot93.html| title= The Age of Robots|date=June 1993| first=Hans| last=Moravec| access-date=2006-06-23| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20060615055406/http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/general.articles/1993/Robot93.html| archive-date= 15 June 2006 | url-status= live}}</ref> in which robots will evolve into a new series of artificial species, starting around 2030–2040.<ref>{{cite web| url=http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/robot.papers/2004/Predictions.html| title=Robot Predictions Evolution| first=Hans| last=Moravec|date=April 2004| access-date=2006-06-23| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20060616045535/http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/robot.papers/2004/Predictions.html| archive-date= 16 June 2006 | url-status= live}}</ref>

In a series of published articles from 1974–1979, and then in his 1988 book ''Mind Children'', computer scientist and futurist [[Hans Moravec]] generalizes [[Moore's law]] to make predictions about the future of artificial life. Moore's law describes an [[exponential growth]] pattern in the complexity of integrated semiconductor circuits. Moravec extends this to include technologies from long before the integrated circuit to future forms of technology. Moravec outlines a timeline and a scenario<ref>{{cite journal| url=http://www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm| journal=Journal of Evolution and Technology| date=1998| volume=1| title=When will computer hardware match the human brain?| first=Hans| last=Moravec| access-date=2006-06-23| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060615031852/http://transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm| archive-date=15 June 2006| url-status=dead}}</ref><ref>{{cite web| url=http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/general.articles/1993/Robot93.html| title= The Age of Robots|date=June 1993| first=Hans| last=Moravec| access-date=2006-06-23| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20060615055406/http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/general.articles/1993/Robot93.html| archive-date= 15 June 2006 | url-status= live}}</ref> in which robots will evolve into a new series of artificial species, starting around 2030–2040.<ref>{{cite web| url=http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/robot.papers/2004/Predictions.html| title=Robot Predictions Evolution| first=Hans| last=Moravec|date=April 2004| access-date=2006-06-23| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20060616045535/http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/robot.papers/2004/Predictions.html| archive-date= 16 June 2006 | url-status= live}}</ref>

In ''Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind'', published in 1998, Moravec further considers the implications of evolving [[robot intelligence]], generalizing [[Moore's Law]] to technologies predating the [[integrated circuit]], and also plotting the exponentially increasing computational power of the brains of animals in evolutionary history. Extrapolating these trends, he speculates about a coming "mind fire"  of rapidly expanding [[superintelligence]] similar to the [[intelligence explosion|explosion of intelligence]] predicted by Vinge.

In ''Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind'', published in 1998, Moravec further considers the implications of evolving [[robot intelligence]], generalizing [[Moore's Law]] to technologies predating the [[integrated circuit]], and also plotting the exponentially increasing computational power of the brains of animals in evolutionary history. Extrapolating these trends, he speculates about a coming "mind fire"  of rapidly expanding [[superintelligence]] similar to the [[intelligence explosion|explosion of intelligence]] predicted by Vinge.

詹姆斯 · 伯克的《关系》在他的电视连续剧《关系》(1978)以及续集《关系》(1994)和《关系》(1997)中探索了一种“另类变革观”(该剧的副标题) ，该观点拒绝了传统的线性和目的论的历史进步观点。伯克认为，人们不能孤立地考虑现代世界任何特定部分的发展。相反，现代世界的整个形态是一个相互关联的事件网络的结果，每个事件都是由一个人或一个团体出于自己的动机(例如，利益、好奇心、宗教)而行动，对他们或他们同时代人的行动将导致的最终现代结果没有概念。这些孤立事件的结果之间的相互作用是推动历史和创新的动力，也是这一系列及其续集的主要焦点。

== James Burke's ''Connections （詹姆斯 · 伯克的联结）'' ==

{{Main|Connections (British documentary)}}In his TV series Connections (1978)—and sequels Connections² (1994) and Connections³ (1997)—James Burke explores an "Alternative View of Change" (the subtitle of the series) that rejects the conventional linear and teleological view of historical progress. Burke contends that one cannot consider the development of any particular piece of the modern world in isolation. Rather, the entire gestalt of the modern world is the result of a web of interconnected events, each one consisting of a person or group acting for reasons of their own motivations (e.g., profit, curiosity, religious) with no concept of the final, modern result to which the actions of either them or their contemporaries would lead. The interplay of the results of these isolated events is what drives history and innovation, and is also the main focus of the series and its sequels.

Burke also explores three corollaries to his initial thesis. The first is that, if history is driven by individuals who act only on what they know at the time, and not because of any idea as to where their actions will eventually lead, then predicting the future course of technological progress is merely conjecture. Therefore, if we are astonished by the connections Burke is able to weave among past events, then we will be equally surprised to what the events of today eventually will lead, especially events we weren't even aware of at the time.

Burke also explores three corollaries to his initial thesis. The first is that, if history is driven by individuals who act only on what they know at the time, and not because of any idea as to where their actions will eventually lead, then predicting the future course of technological progress is merely conjecture. Therefore, if we are astonished by the connections Burke is able to weave among past events, then we will be equally surprised to what the events of today eventually will lead, especially events we weren't even aware of at the time.

The second and third corollaries are explored most in the introductory and concluding episodes, and they represent the downside of an interconnected history. If history progresses because of the synergistic interaction of past events and innovations, then as history does progress, the number of these events and innovations increases. This increase in possible connections causes the process of innovation to not only continue, but to accelerate. Burke poses the question of what happens when this rate of innovation, or more importantly change itself, becomes too much for the average person to handle, and what this means for individual power, liberty, and privacy.

The second and third corollaries are explored most in the introductory and concluding episodes, and they represent the downside of an interconnected history. If history progresses because of the synergistic interaction of past events and innovations, then as history does progress, the number of these events and innovations increases. This increase in possible connections causes the process of innovation to not only continue, but to accelerate. Burke poses the question of what happens when this rate of innovation, or more importantly change itself, becomes too much for the average person to handle, and what this means for individual power, liberty, and privacy.

In his book "Mindsteps to the Cosmos" (HarperCollins, August 1983), [[Gerald Hawkins|Gerald S. Hawkins]] elucidated his notion of 'mindsteps', dramatic and irreversible changes to [[paradigms]] or world views. He identified five distinct mindsteps in human history, and the technology that accompanied these "new world views": the invention of imagery, writing, mathematics, printing, the telescope, rocket, radio, TV, computer... "Each one takes the collective mind closer to reality, one stage further along in its understanding of the relation of humans to the cosmos." He noted: "The waiting period between the mindsteps is getting shorter. One can't help noticing the acceleration." Hawkins' empirical 'mindstep equation' quantified this, and gave dates for future mindsteps. The date of the next mindstep (5; the series begins at 0) is given as 2021, with two further, successively closer mindsteps in 2045 and 2051, until the limit of the series in 2053. His speculations ventured beyond the technological:

In his book "Mindsteps to the Cosmos" (HarperCollins, August 1983), [[Gerald Hawkins|Gerald S. Hawkins]] elucidated his notion of 'mindsteps', dramatic and irreversible changes to [[paradigms]] or world views. He identified five distinct mindsteps in human history, and the technology that accompanied these "new world views": the invention of imagery, writing, mathematics, printing, the telescope, rocket, radio, TV, computer... "Each one takes the collective mind closer to reality, one stage further along in its understanding of the relation of humans to the cosmos." He noted: "The waiting period between the mindsteps is getting shorter. One can't help noticing the acceleration." Hawkins' empirical 'mindstep equation' quantified this, and gave dates for future mindsteps. The date of the next mindstep (5; the series begins at 0) is given as 2021, with two further, successively closer mindsteps in 2045 and 2051, until the limit of the series in 2053. His speculations ventured beyond the technological: