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第26行： − Because the output of forecast models based on [[atmospheric dynamics]] requires corrections near ground level, [[model output statistics]] (MOS) were developed in the 1970s and 1980s for individual ''forecast points'' (locations).<ref name="MOS" /><ref name="L. Best, D. L. and S. P. Pryor 1983 1–90">{{cite book|title=Air Weather Service Model Output Statistics Systems|author1=L. Best, D. L. |author2=S. P. Pryor |name-list-style=amp |year=1983|pages=1–90|publisher=Air Force Global Weather Central}}</ref> Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the [[forecast skill]] of numerical weather models only extends to about two weeks into the future, since the density and quality of observations—together with the [[Chaos theory|chaotic]] nature of the [[partial differential equation]]s used to calculate the forecast—introduce errors which double every five days.<ref name="Cox">{{cite book|title=Storm Watchers|pages=[https://archive.org/details/stormwatcherstur00cox_df1/page/222 222–224]|year=2002|author=Cox, John D.|publisher=John Wiley & Sons, Inc.|isbn=978-0-471-38108-2|url=https://archive.org/details/stormwatcherstur00cox_df1/page/222}}</ref><ref name="Klaus">Weickmann, Klaus, Jeff Whitaker, Andres Roubicek and Catherine Smith (2001-12-01). [http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/spotlight/12012001/ The Use of Ensemble Forecasts to Produce Improved Medium Range (3–15 days) Weather Forecasts.] [[Climate Diagnostics Center]]. Retrieved 2007-02-16.</ref> The use of model ensemble forecasts since the 1990s helps to define the forecast uncertainty and extend [[weather forecasting]] farther into the future than otherwise possible.<ref name="Toth">{{cite journal|last=Toth|first=Zoltan|author2=Kalnay, Eugenia|title=Ensemble Forecasting at NCEP and the Breeding Method |journal=[[Monthly Weather Review]]|date=December 1997|volume=125|issue=12|pages=3297–3319|doi=10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<3297:EFANAT>2.0.CO;2|issn=1520-0493|bibcode=1997MWRv..125.3297T|author-link2=Eugenia Kalnay|citeseerx=10.1.1.324.3941}}</ref><ref name="ECens">{{cite web|url=http://ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/guide/The_Ensemble_Prediction_System_EPS_1.html |title=The Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) |publisher=[[ECMWF]] |access-date=2011-01-05 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110125125209/http://ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/guide/The_Ensemble_Prediction_System_EPS_1.html |archive-date=25 January 2011 |url-status=dead }}</ref><ref name="RMS">{{cite journal|title=The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Methodology and validation|journal=Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society|date=January 1996|volume=122|issue=529|pages=73–119|author1=Molteni, F. |author2=Buizza, R. |author3=Palmer, T.N. |author4=Petroliagis, T. |doi=10.1002/qj.49712252905|bibcode=1996QJRMS.122...73M}}</ref> − − 由于基于大气动力学的预报模式的输出结果需要近地面处的修正，因此20世纪70年代和20世纪80年代开发了单个预报位点的模式输出统计（MOS）。尽管超级计算机的能力不断提升，数值天气模式的预报仅能延伸到未来两周左右，这是因为观测点的密度和质量以及被用来预测的偏微分方程的混沌本质都会引入每五天加倍的误差。自20世纪90年代以来，模式集合预报的使用帮助确定了不确定性，并且预测时段比其他可能的方式都要长。 + +
→历史
数值天气预报的历史起于20世纪20年代，这得益于 Lewis Fry Richardson 使用了 Vihelm Bjerknes 开发的方法的成果。<ref name="Lynch JCP">{{cite journal|last=Lynch|author-link=Peter Lynch (meteorologist)|first=Peter|title=The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling|journal=[[Journal of Computational Physics]]|date=2008-03-20|volume=227|issue=7|pages=3431–44|doi= 10.1016/j.jcp.2007.02.034 |url=http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/personal/miskandarani/Courses/MPO662/Lynch,Peter/OriginsCompWF.JCP227.pdf|access-date= 2010-12-23 |bibcode=2008JCoPh.227.3431L|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100708191309/http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/personal/miskandarani/Courses/MPO662/Lynch,Peter/OriginsCompWF.JCP227.pdf|archive-date=2010-07-08|url-status=dead}}</ref><ref name="Lynch Ch1">{{cite book|last=Lynch |first= Peter |title=The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction|year=2006|publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]|isbn=978-0-521-85729-1|pages=1–27 |chapter= Weather Prediction by Numerical Process}}</ref>直到计算机和计算机模拟时代的到来，计算时间才降低到少于被预测时段。ENIAC 在1950年发明了第一台计算机预测系统，<ref name="Charney 1950">{{cite journal|last1= Charney|first1=Jule|last2=Fjörtoft|first2=Ragnar|last3=von Neumann|first3=John|title=Numerical Integration of the Barotropic Vorticity Equation|journal= Tellus|date=November 1950|volume=2|issue=4|doi=10.3402/tellusa.v2i4.8607|author-link1=Jule Charney|author-link3=John von Neumann|bibcode= 1950TellA...2..237C |pages=237–254|doi-access=free}}</ref><ref>{{cite book|title=Storm Watchers|page=[https://archive.org/details/stormwatcherstur00cox_df1/page/208 208]|year=2002|author=Cox, John D.|publisher=John Wiley & Sons, Inc.|isbn=978-0-471-38108-2|url=https://archive.org/details/stormwatcherstur00cox_df1/page/208}}</ref>之后功能更强大的计算机增加了初始数据集的规模，并包含了更复杂的运动方程的版本。<ref name="Harper BAMS">{{cite journal|last=Harper|first=Kristine|author2=Uccellini, Louis W.|author3= Kalnay, Eugenia|author4= Carey, Kenneth|author5= Morone, Lauren|title=2007: 50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction|journal=[[Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society]]|date=May 2007|volume=88|issue=5|pages=639–650|doi=10.1175/BAMS-88-5-639 |bibcode=2007BAMS...88..639H |doi-access=free}}</ref>1966年，西德和美国开始根据原始方程模式制作业务预测系统，1972年英国和1977年澳大利亚紧随其后。<ref name="Lynch JCP"/><ref name="Leslie BOM">{{cite journal|last=Leslie|first=L.M.|author2=Dietachmeyer, G.S.|title=Real-time limited area numerical weather prediction in Australia: a historical perspective|journal=Australian Meteorological Magazine|date=December 1992|volume=41|issue=SP|pages=61–77|url=http://www.bom.gov.au/amoj/docs/1992/leslie2.pdf|access-date=2011-01-03|publisher=[[Bureau of Meteorology]]}}</ref> The development of global [[Forecasting#Categories of forecasting methods|forecasting models]] led to the first climate models.<ref name="Phillips"/><ref name="Cox210"/>全球预报模式的发展导致了第一个气候模式的诞生。在20世纪70年代和20世纪80年代，有限区域（区域性）模式的发展推动了热带气旋轨道和空气质量预报的进步。<ref name="Shuman W&F">{{cite journal|last=Shuman|first=Frederick G.|author-link=Frederick Gale Shuman|title=History of Numerical Weather Prediction at the National Meteorological Center|journal=[[Weather and Forecasting]]|date=September 1989|volume=4|issue=3|pages=286–296|doi= 10.1175/1520-0434(1989)004<0286:HONWPA>2.0.CO;2 |issn=1520-0434|bibcode=1989WtFor...4..286S|doi-access=free}}</ref><ref name="Steyn, D. G. 1991 241–242">{{cite book|title=Air pollution modeling and its application VIII, Volume 8|author=Steyn, D. G.|publisher=Birkhäuser|year=1991|pages=241–242|isbn= 978-0-306-43828-8}}</ref>
数值天气预报的历史起于20世纪20年代，这得益于 Lewis Fry Richardson 使用了 Vihelm Bjerknes 开发的方法的成果。<ref name="Lynch JCP">{{cite journal|last=Lynch|author-link=Peter Lynch (meteorologist)|first=Peter|title=The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling|journal=[[Journal of Computational Physics]]|date=2008-03-20|volume=227|issue=7|pages=3431–44|doi= 10.1016/j.jcp.2007.02.034 |url=http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/personal/miskandarani/Courses/MPO662/Lynch,Peter/OriginsCompWF.JCP227.pdf|access-date= 2010-12-23 |bibcode=2008JCoPh.227.3431L|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100708191309/http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/personal/miskandarani/Courses/MPO662/Lynch,Peter/OriginsCompWF.JCP227.pdf|archive-date=2010-07-08|url-status=dead}}</ref><ref name="Lynch Ch1">{{cite book|last=Lynch |first= Peter |title=The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction|year=2006|publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]|isbn=978-0-521-85729-1|pages=1–27 |chapter= Weather Prediction by Numerical Process}}</ref>直到计算机和计算机模拟时代的到来，计算时间才降低到少于被预测时段。ENIAC 在1950年发明了第一台计算机预测系统，<ref name="Charney 1950">{{cite journal|last1= Charney|first1=Jule|last2=Fjörtoft|first2=Ragnar|last3=von Neumann|first3=John|title=Numerical Integration of the Barotropic Vorticity Equation|journal= Tellus|date=November 1950|volume=2|issue=4|doi=10.3402/tellusa.v2i4.8607|author-link1=Jule Charney|author-link3=John von Neumann|bibcode= 1950TellA...2..237C |pages=237–254|doi-access=free}}</ref><ref>{{cite book|title=Storm Watchers|page=[https://archive.org/details/stormwatcherstur00cox_df1/page/208 208]|year=2002|author=Cox, John D.|publisher=John Wiley & Sons, Inc.|isbn=978-0-471-38108-2|url=https://archive.org/details/stormwatcherstur00cox_df1/page/208}}</ref>之后功能更强大的计算机增加了初始数据集的规模，并包含了更复杂的运动方程的版本。<ref name="Harper BAMS">{{cite journal|last=Harper|first=Kristine|author2=Uccellini, Louis W.|author3= Kalnay, Eugenia|author4= Carey, Kenneth|author5= Morone, Lauren|title=2007: 50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction|journal=[[Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society]]|date=May 2007|volume=88|issue=5|pages=639–650|doi=10.1175/BAMS-88-5-639 |bibcode=2007BAMS...88..639H |doi-access=free}}</ref>1966年，西德和美国开始根据原始方程模式制作业务预测系统，1972年英国和1977年澳大利亚紧随其后。<ref name="Lynch JCP"/><ref name="Leslie BOM">{{cite journal|last=Leslie|first=L.M.|author2=Dietachmeyer, G.S.|title=Real-time limited area numerical weather prediction in Australia: a historical perspective|journal=Australian Meteorological Magazine|date=December 1992|volume=41|issue=SP|pages=61–77|url=http://www.bom.gov.au/amoj/docs/1992/leslie2.pdf|access-date=2011-01-03|publisher=[[Bureau of Meteorology]]}}</ref> The development of global [[Forecasting#Categories of forecasting methods|forecasting models]] led to the first climate models.<ref name="Phillips"/><ref name="Cox210"/>全球预报模式的发展导致了第一个气候模式的诞生。在20世纪70年代和20世纪80年代，有限区域（区域性）模式的发展推动了热带气旋轨道和空气质量预报的进步。<ref name="Shuman W&F">{{cite journal|last=Shuman|first=Frederick G.|author-link=Frederick Gale Shuman|title=History of Numerical Weather Prediction at the National Meteorological Center|journal=[[Weather and Forecasting]]|date=September 1989|volume=4|issue=3|pages=286–296|doi= 10.1175/1520-0434(1989)004<0286:HONWPA>2.0.CO;2 |issn=1520-0434|bibcode=1989WtFor...4..286S|doi-access=free}}</ref><ref name="Steyn, D. G. 1991 241–242">{{cite book|title=Air pollution modeling and its application VIII, Volume 8|author=Steyn, D. G.|publisher=Birkhäuser|year=1991|pages=241–242|isbn= 978-0-306-43828-8}}</ref>
由于基于大气动力学的预报模式的输出结果需要近地面处的修正，因此20世纪70年代和20世纪80年代开发了单个预报位点的模式输出统计（MOS）。<ref name="MOS" /><ref name="L. Best, D. L. and S. P. Pryor 1983 1–90">{{cite book|title=Air Weather Service Model Output Statistics Systems|author1=L. Best, D. L. |author2=S. P. Pryor |name-list-style=amp |year=1983|pages=1–90|publisher=Air Force Global Weather Central}}</ref>尽管超级计算机的能力不断提升，数值天气模式的预报仅能延伸到未来两周左右，这是因为观测点的密度和质量以及被用来预测的偏微分方程的混沌本质都会引入每五天加倍的误差。<ref name="Cox">{{cite book|title=Storm Watchers|pages=[https://archive.org/details/stormwatcherstur00cox_df1/page/222 222–224]|year=2002|author=Cox, John D.|publisher=John Wiley & Sons, Inc.|isbn=978-0-471-38108-2|url=https://archive.org/details/stormwatcherstur00cox_df1/page/222}}</ref><ref name="Klaus">Weickmann, Klaus, Jeff Whitaker, Andres Roubicek and Catherine Smith (2001-12-01). [http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/spotlight/12012001/ The Use of Ensemble Forecasts to Produce Improved Medium Range (3–15 days) Weather Forecasts.] [[Climate Diagnostics Center]]. Retrieved 2007-02-16.</ref>自20世纪90年代以来，模式集合预报的使用帮助确定了不确定性，并且预测时段比其他可能的方式都要长。<ref name="Toth">{{cite journal|last=Toth|first=Zoltan|author2=Kalnay, Eugenia|title=Ensemble Forecasting at NCEP and the Breeding Method |journal=[[Monthly Weather Review]]|date=December 1997|volume=125|issue=12|pages=3297–3319|doi=10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<3297:EFANAT>2.0.CO;2|issn=1520-0493|bibcode=1997MWRv..125.3297T|author-link2=Eugenia Kalnay|citeseerx=10.1.1.324.3941}}</ref><ref name="ECens">{{cite web|url=http://ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/guide/The_Ensemble_Prediction_System_EPS_1.html |title=The Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) |publisher=[[ECMWF]] |access-date=2011-01-05 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110125125209/http://ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/guide/The_Ensemble_Prediction_System_EPS_1.html |archive-date=25 January 2011 |url-status=dead }}</ref><ref name="RMS">{{cite journal|title=The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Methodology and validation|journal=Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society|date=January 1996|volume=122|issue=529|pages=73–119|author1=Molteni, F. |author2=Buizza, R. |author3=Palmer, T.N. |author4=Petroliagis, T. |doi=10.1002/qj.49712252905|bibcode=1996QJRMS.122...73M}}</ref>
<br>
==初始化==
==初始化==