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此词条暂由彩云小译翻译，未经人工整理和审校，带来阅读不便，请见谅。{{about|the application of [[complex system|complexity science]] to the problems of economics| its application to strategy|Complexity theory and organizations|other uses|Complexity theory (disambiguation)}}

此词条由许菁翻译。{{about|the application of [[complex system|complexity science]] to the problems of economics| its application to strategy|Complexity theory and organizations|other uses|Complexity theory (disambiguation)}}

== Models ==

== 模型 Models ==

 

 

== Measures ==

== 方法 Measures ==

MIT physicist [[César Hidalgo]] and Harvard economist [[Ricardo Hausmann]] introduced a spectral method to measure the complexity of a country's economy by inferring it from the structure of the network connecting countries to the products that they export. The measure combines information of a country's [[diversity index|diversity]], which is positively correlated with a country's productive knowledge, with measures of a product ubiquity (number of countries that produce or export the product).<ref name="HidalgoHausmannPNAS">{{cite journal|last=Hidalgo|first=Cesar A.|author2=Hausmann Ricardo|title=The Building Block of Economic Complexity|journal=PNAS|year=2009|issue=26|pages=10570–10575|pmid=19549871|doi=10.1073/pnas.0900943106|pmc=2705545|volume=106|arxiv=0909.3890|bibcode=2009PNAS..10610570H}}</ref><ref name="ComplexityAtlas">{{cite book|last=Hausmann & Hidalgo|title=The Atlas of Economic Complexity: Mapping Paths to Prosperity|year=2011|publisher=The MIT Press|location=Cambridge, MA|isbn=978-0615546629|url=http://atlas.media.mit.edu/static/pdf/atlas/AtlasOfEconomicComplexity.pdf}}</ref> This concept, known as the [[The Product Space|"Product Space"]], has been further developed by MIT's [[The Observatory of Economic Complexity|Observatory of Economic Complexity]], and in The Atlas of Economic Complexity<ref name=ComplexityAtlas /> in 2011.

MIT physicist [[César Hidalgo]] and Harvard economist [[Ricardo Hausmann]] introduced a spectral method to measure the complexity of a country's economy by inferring it from the structure of the network connecting countries to the products that they export. The measure combines information of a country's [[diversity index|diversity]], which is positively correlated with a country's productive knowledge, with measures of a product ubiquity (number of countries that produce or export the product).<ref name="HidalgoHausmannPNAS">{{cite journal|last=Hidalgo|first=Cesar A.|author2=Hausmann Ricardo|title=The Building Block of Economic Complexity|journal=PNAS|year=2009|issue=26|pages=10570–10575|pmid=19549871|doi=10.1073/pnas.0900943106|pmc=2705545|volume=106|arxiv=0909.3890|bibcode=2009PNAS..10610570H}}</ref><ref name="ComplexityAtlas">{{cite book|last=Hausmann & Hidalgo|title=The Atlas of Economic Complexity: Mapping Paths to Prosperity|year=2011|publisher=The MIT Press|location=Cambridge, MA|isbn=978-0615546629|url=http://atlas.media.mit.edu/static/pdf/atlas/AtlasOfEconomicComplexity.pdf}}</ref> This concept, known as the [[The Product Space|"Product Space"]], has been further developed by MIT's [[The Observatory of Economic Complexity|Observatory of Economic Complexity]], and in The Atlas of Economic Complexity<ref name=ComplexityAtlas /> in 2011.

==== Relevance ====

==== 相关性 Relevance ====

 

 

 

 

=== Metrics for country fitness and product complexity ===

=== 国家健康状况和产品复杂性指标 Metrics for country fitness and product complexity ===

 

 

[[Luciano Pietronero|Pietronero]] and collaborators have recently proposed a different approach.<ref name=metricsfitness1>{{cite journal|last=Tacchella|first=Andrea|title=A New Metrics for Countries' Fitness and Products' Complexity|journal=Scientific Reports|date=10 October 2012|volume=2|issue=723|pages=723|doi=10.1038/srep00723|pmid=23056915|pmc=3467565|display-authors=etal|bibcode=2012NatSR...2E.723T}}</ref><ref name=metricsfitness2>{{cite journal|last=Cristelli|first=Matthieu|title=Measuring the Intangibles: A Metrics for the Economic Complexity of Countries and Products|journal=PLOS ONE|doi=10.1371/journal.pone.0070726|display-authors=etal|volume=8|issue=8|pages=e70726|pmid=23940633|pmc=3733723|bibcode=2013PLoSO...870726C|year=2013}}</ref><ref name=metricsflyer>{{cite web|title=Economic Complexity: Measuring the Intangibles. A Consumer's Guide|url=http://pilhd.phys.uniroma1.it/PILgroup_Economic_Complexity/Home_files/economic_complexity_flyer%20_v2_1.pdf|accessdate=30 January 2014}}</ref> These metrics are defined as the fixed point of non-linear iterative map. Differently from the linear algorithm giving rise to the ECI, this non-linearity is a key point to properly deal with the nested structure of the data. The authors of this alternative formula claim it has several advantages:

[[Luciano Pietronero|Pietronero]] and collaborators have recently proposed a different approach.<ref name=metricsfitness1>{{cite journal|last=Tacchella|first=Andrea|title=A New Metrics for Countries' Fitness and Products' Complexity|journal=Scientific Reports|date=10 October 2012|volume=2|issue=723|pages=723|doi=10.1038/srep00723|pmid=23056915|pmc=3467565|display-authors=etal|bibcode=2012NatSR...2E.723T}}</ref><ref name=metricsfitness2>{{cite journal|last=Cristelli|first=Matthieu|title=Measuring the Intangibles: A Metrics for the Economic Complexity of Countries and Products|journal=PLOS ONE|doi=10.1371/journal.pone.0070726|display-authors=etal|volume=8|issue=8|pages=e70726|pmid=23940633|pmc=3733723|bibcode=2013PLoSO...870726C|year=2013}}</ref><ref name=metricsflyer>{{cite web|title=Economic Complexity: Measuring the Intangibles. A Consumer's Guide|url=http://pilhd.phys.uniroma1.it/PILgroup_Economic_Complexity/Home_files/economic_complexity_flyer%20_v2_1.pdf|accessdate=30 January 2014}}</ref> These metrics are defined as the fixed point of non-linear iterative map. Differently from the linear algorithm giving rise to the ECI, this non-linearity is a key point to properly deal with the nested structure of the data. The authors of this alternative formula claim it has several advantages:

* Consistency with the empirical evidence from the export country-product matrix that diversification plays a crucial role in the assessment of the competitiveness of countries. The metrics for countries proposed by Pietronero is indeed extensive with respect to the number of products.

* Consistency with the empirical evidence from the export country-product matrix that diversification plays a crucial role in the assessment of the competitiveness of countries. The metrics for countries proposed by Pietronero is indeed extensive with respect to the number of products.

* Non-linear coupling between fitness and complexity required by the nested structure of the country-product matrix. The nested structure implies that the information on the complexity of a product must be bounded by the producers with the slowest fitness.  

* Non-linear coupling between fitness and complexity required by the nested structure of the country-product matrix. The nested structure implies that the information on the complexity of a product must be bounded by the producers with the slowest fitness.  

* Broad and [[Pareto distribution|Pareto]]-like distribution of the metrics.

* Broad and [[Pareto distribution|Pareto]]-like distribution of the metrics.

 

* Each iteration of the method refines information, does not change the meaning of the iterated variables and does not shrink information.

* Each iteration of the method refines information, does not change the meaning of the iterated variables and does not shrink information.

 

==Features==

==特征 Features==

 

 

[[W. Brian Arthur|Brian Arthur]], [[Steven N. Durlauf]], and [[David A. Lane (scientist)|David A. Lane]] describe several features of complex systems that deserve greater attention in economics.<ref>{{Cite book | first1 = Brian | last1 = Arthur | author1-link = W. Brian Arthur | first2 = Steven | last2 = Durlauf | author2-link = Steven N. Durlauf | first3 = David A | last3 = Lane | chapter = Introduction: Process and Emergence in the Economy | title = The Economy as an Evolving Complex System II | publisher = Addison-Wesley | place = Reading, Mass. | year = 1997 | chapterurl = http://www.santafe.edu/~wbarthur/Papers/ADLIntro.html | accessdate = 2008-08-26 | postscript = <!--None-->}}</ref>

[[W. Brian Arthur|Brian Arthur]], [[Steven N. Durlauf]], and [[David A. Lane (scientist)|David A. Lane]] describe several features of complex systems that deserve greater attention in economics.<ref>{{Cite book | first1 = Brian | last1 = Arthur | author1-link = W. Brian Arthur | first2 = Steven | last2 = Durlauf | author2-link = Steven N. Durlauf | first3 = David A | last3 = Lane | chapter = Introduction: Process and Emergence in the Economy | title = The Economy as an Evolving Complex System II | publisher = Addison-Wesley | place = Reading, Mass. | year = 1997 | chapterurl = http://www.santafe.edu/~wbarthur/Papers/ADLIntro.html | accessdate = 2008-08-26 | postscript = <!--None-->}}</ref>

Brian Arthur, Steven N. Durlauf, and David A. Lane describe several features of complex systems that deserve greater attention in economics.

Brian Arthur, Steven N. Durlauf, and David A. Lane describe several features of complex systems that deserve greater attention in economics.

布莱恩 · 亚瑟，史蒂文 · n · 德劳夫和大卫 · a。莱恩描述了在经济学中值得更多关注的几个复杂系统的特征。

布莱恩 · 亚瑟，史蒂文 · N · 德劳夫和大卫 · A · 莱恩描述了在经济学中值得更多关注的几个复杂系统的特征。

==Contemporary trends in economics==

== 当代经济学趋势 Contemporary trends in economics ==

 

 

Complexity economics has a complex relation to previous work in economics and other sciences, and to contemporary economics. Complexity-theoretic thinking to understand economic problems has been present since their [[inception]] as [[academic discipline]]s. Research has shown that no two separate micro-events are completely isolated,<ref name="AFC-NA-21">[[Albert-László Barabási]] {{cite web |title =  explaining ''(at 27:07)'' that no two events are completely isolated in the BBC Documentary |work = BBC  |url=http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/six-degrees-of-separation/|publisher= |page =  |accessdate=11 June 2012}} "Unfolding the science behind the idea of six degrees of separation"</ref> and there is a relationship that forms a [[macroeconomic]] structure. However, the relationship is not always in one direction; there is a reciprocal influence when feedback is in operation.<ref name="CAS-T-06">{{cite web |url= http://psych.lse.ac.uk/complexity/Papers/Ch2final.pdf |title= Page 20 - Ten Principles of Complexity & Enabling Infrastructures |publisher= by Professor Eve Mitleton-Kelly, Director Complexity Research Programme, London School of Economics |accessdate= 1 June 2012 |archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20130512173052/http://www.psych.lse.ac.uk/complexity/Papers/Ch2final.pdf |archive-date= 12 May 2013 |url-status= dead }}</ref>

Complexity economics has a complex relation to previous work in economics and other sciences, and to contemporary economics. Complexity-theoretic thinking to understand economic problems has been present since their [[inception]] as [[academic discipline]]s. Research has shown that no two separate micro-events are completely isolated,<ref name="AFC-NA-21">[[Albert-László Barabási]] {{cite web |title =  explaining ''(at 27:07)'' that no two events are completely isolated in the BBC Documentary |work = BBC  |url=http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/six-degrees-of-separation/|publisher= |page =  |accessdate=11 June 2012}} "Unfolding the science behind the idea of six degrees of separation"</ref> and there is a relationship that forms a [[macroeconomic]] structure. However, the relationship is not always in one direction; there is a reciprocal influence when feedback is in operation.<ref name="CAS-T-06">{{cite web |url= http://psych.lse.ac.uk/complexity/Papers/Ch2final.pdf |title= Page 20 - Ten Principles of Complexity & Enabling Infrastructures |publisher= by Professor Eve Mitleton-Kelly, Director Complexity Research Programme, London School of Economics |accessdate= 1 June 2012 |archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20130512173052/http://www.psych.lse.ac.uk/complexity/Papers/Ch2final.pdf |archive-date= 12 May 2013 |url-status= dead }}</ref>

===Intellectual predecessors===

=== 先行者的智慧 Intellectual predecessors ===

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

|first=David

Complexity economics draws inspiration from [[behavioral economics]], [[Marxian economics]], [[institutional economics]]/[[evolutionary economics]], [[Austrian economics]] and the work of [[Adam Smith]].<ref>{{cite web|title=Complexity and the History of Economic Thought|last=Colander|first=David|date=March 2008|accessdate=29 July 2012|url=http://sandcat.middlebury.edu/econ/repec/mdl/ancoec/0804.pdf}}</ref> It also draws inspiration from other fields, such as [[statistical mechanics]] in physics, and [[evolutionary biology]]. Some of the 20th century intellectual background of complexity theory in economics is examined in Alan Marshall (2002) The Unity of Nature, Imperial College Press: London. See Douma & Schreuder (2017) for a non-technical introduction to Complexity Economics and a comparison with other economic theories (as applied to markets and organizations).

它也从其他领域获得了灵感，比如物理学中的 http://sandcat.middlebury.edu/econ/repec/mdl/ancoec/0804.pdf 统计力学，以及进化生物学。艾伦•马歇尔(Alan Marshall)2002年出版的《自然的统一》(The Unity of Nature，Imperial College Press: London)探讨了20世纪经济学中复杂性理论的一些知识背景。参见 Douma & Schreuder (2017)对复杂性经济学的非技术性介绍以及与其他经济理论的比较(适用于市场和组织)。

它也从其他领域获得了灵感，比如物理学中的 http://sandcat.middlebury.edu/econ/repec/mdl/ancoec/0804.pdf 统计力学，以及进化生物学。艾伦•马歇尔(Alan Marshall)2002年出版的《自然的统一》(The Unity of Nature，Imperial College Press: London)探讨了20世纪经济学中复杂性理论的一些知识背景。参见 Douma & Schreuder (2017)对复杂性经济学的非技术性介绍以及与其他经济理论的比较(适用于市场和组织)。

===Applications===

===应用 Applications===

 

 

The theory of complex dynamic systems has been applied in diverse fields in economics and other decision sciences. These applications include [[capital theory]],<ref name=Rosser1983>{{cite journal | last1 = Rosser Jr | first1 = J. Barkley | year = 1983 | title = Reswitching as a Cusp Catastrophe | doi = 10.1016/0022-0531(83)90029-7 | journal = Journal of Economic Theory | volume = 31 | issue = | pages = 182–193 }}</ref><ref name=Ahmad1991>Ahmad, Syed ''Capital in Economic Theory: Neo-classical, Cambridge, and Chaos''. Brookfield: Edward Elgar (1991)</ref> [[game theory]],<ref name=Sato2002>{{cite journal | last1 = Sato | first1 = Yuzuru | authorlink3 = J. Doyne Farmer | last2 = Akiyama | first2 = Eizo | last3 = Farmer | first3 = J. Doyne | year = 2002 | title = Chaos in learning a simple two-person game | url = | journal = Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America | volume = 99 | issue = 7| pages = 4748–4751 | doi=10.1073/pnas.032086299| pmid = 11930020 | pmc = 123719 | bibcode = 2002PNAS...99.4748S }}</ref> the dynamics of [[public opinion|opinion]]s among agents composed of multiple selves,<ref name=Krause2010>Krause, Ulrich. "Collective Dynamics of Faustian Agents", in ''Economic Theory and Economic Thought: Essays in honour of Ian Steedman'' (ed. by John Vint et al.) Routledge: 2010.</ref> and [[macroeconomic]]s.<ref name=Flaschel2009>{{cite journal | last1 = Flaschel | first1 = Peter | last2 = Proano | first2 = Christian R. | year = 2009 | title = The J2 Status of 'Chaos' in Period Macroeconomics Models | url = http://www.bepress.com/snde/vol13/iss2/art2/ | archive-url = https://archive.today/20130117222103/http://www.bepress.com/snde/vol13/iss2/art2/ | url-status = dead | archive-date = 2013-01-17 | journal = Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics | volume = 13 | issue = 2 | page = 2 | doi = 10.2202/1558-3708.1674 | hdl = 10419/105911 }}</ref> In [[voting theory]], the methods of [[symbolic dynamics]] have been applied by [[Donald G. Saari]].<ref name=Saari2001>Saari, Donald G. ''Chaotic Elections: A Mathematician Looks at Voting''. American Mathematical Society (2001).</ref> Complexity economics has attracted the attention of historians of economics.<ref name=Bausor1994>Bausor, Randall. "Qualitative dynamics in economics and fluid mechanics: a comparison of recent applications", in ''Natural Images in Economic Thought: Markets Read in Tooth and Claw'' (ed. by Philip Mirowski). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press (1994).</ref> Ben Ramalingam's [[Aid on the Edge of Chaos]] includes numerous applications of complexity economics that are relevant to [[aid|foreign aid]].

The theory of complex dynamic systems has been applied in diverse fields in economics and other decision sciences. These applications include [[capital theory]],<ref name=Rosser1983>{{cite journal | last1 = Rosser Jr | first1 = J. Barkley | year = 1983 | title = Reswitching as a Cusp Catastrophe | doi = 10.1016/0022-0531(83)90029-7 | journal = Journal of Economic Theory | volume = 31 | issue = | pages = 182–193 }}</ref><ref name=Ahmad1991>Ahmad, Syed ''Capital in Economic Theory: Neo-classical, Cambridge, and Chaos''. Brookfield: Edward Elgar (1991)</ref> [[game theory]],<ref name=Sato2002>{{cite journal | last1 = Sato | first1 = Yuzuru | authorlink3 = J. Doyne Farmer | last2 = Akiyama | first2 = Eizo | last3 = Farmer | first3 = J. Doyne | year = 2002 | title = Chaos in learning a simple two-person game | url = | journal = Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America | volume = 99 | issue = 7| pages = 4748–4751 | doi=10.1073/pnas.032086299| pmid = 11930020 | pmc = 123719 | bibcode = 2002PNAS...99.4748S }}</ref> the dynamics of [[public opinion|opinion]]s among agents composed of multiple selves,<ref name=Krause2010>Krause, Ulrich. "Collective Dynamics of Faustian Agents", in ''Economic Theory and Economic Thought: Essays in honour of Ian Steedman'' (ed. by John Vint et al.) Routledge: 2010.</ref> and [[macroeconomic]]s.<ref name=Flaschel2009>{{cite journal | last1 = Flaschel | first1 = Peter | last2 = Proano | first2 = Christian R. | year = 2009 | title = The J2 Status of 'Chaos' in Period Macroeconomics Models | url = http://www.bepress.com/snde/vol13/iss2/art2/ | archive-url = https://archive.today/20130117222103/http://www.bepress.com/snde/vol13/iss2/art2/ | url-status = dead | archive-date = 2013-01-17 | journal = Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics | volume = 13 | issue = 2 | page = 2 | doi = 10.2202/1558-3708.1674 | hdl = 10419/105911 }}</ref> In [[voting theory]], the methods of [[symbolic dynamics]] have been applied by [[Donald G. Saari]].<ref name=Saari2001>Saari, Donald G. ''Chaotic Elections: A Mathematician Looks at Voting''. American Mathematical Society (2001).</ref> Complexity economics has attracted the attention of historians of economics.<ref name=Bausor1994>Bausor, Randall. "Qualitative dynamics in economics and fluid mechanics: a comparison of recent applications", in ''Natural Images in Economic Thought: Markets Read in Tooth and Claw'' (ed. by Philip Mirowski). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press (1994).</ref> Ben Ramalingam's [[Aid on the Edge of Chaos]] includes numerous applications of complexity economics that are relevant to [[aid|foreign aid]].

===Complexity economics as mainstream, but non-orthodox===

===复杂性经济学是主流，但非正统 Complexity economics as mainstream, but non-orthodox===

 

 

According to {{harvtxt|Colander|2000}}, {{harvtxt|Colander|Holt|Rosser|2004}}, and {{harvtxt|Davis|2008}} contemporary [[mainstream economics]] is evolving to be more "eclectic",<ref name=COL2000a>"Economists today are not neoclassical according to any reasonable definition of the term. They are far more eclectic, and concerned with different issues than were the economists of the early 1900s, whom the term was originally designed to describe." {{harvtxt|Colander|2000|p=130}}</ref><ref name=COL2000b>"Modern economics involves a broader world view and is far more eclectic than the neoclassical terminology allows." {{harvtxt|Colander|2000|p=133}}</ref> diverse,<ref name=CHR04a>"In our view, the interesting story in economics over the past decades is the increasing variance of acceptable views..." {{harvtxt|Colander|Holt|Rosser|2004|p=487}}</ref><ref name=CHR04b>"In work at the edge, ideas that previously had been considered central to economics are being modified and broadened, and the process is changing the very nature of economics." {{harvtxt|Colander|Holt|Rosser|2004|p=487}}</ref><ref name=CHR04c>"When certain members of the existing elite become open to new ideas, that openness allows new ideas to expand, develop, and integrate into the profession... These alternative channels allow the mainstream to expand, and to evolve to include a wider range of approaches and understandings... This, we believe, is already occurring in economics." {{harvtxt|Colander|Holt|Rosser|2004|pp=488–489}}</ref> and [[Pluralism in economics|pluralistic]].<ref name=DAV2008a>"despite an increasing pluralism on the mainstream&nbsp;economics research&nbsp;frontier..." {{harvtxt|Davis|2008|p=353}}</ref> {{harvtxt|Colander|Holt|Rosser|2004}} state that contemporary mainstream economics is "moving away from a strict adherence to the holy trinity – rationality, selfishness, and equilibrium", citing complexity economics along with [[recursive economics]] and [[dynamical system]]s as contributions to these trends.<ref name=CHR04d>{{harvtxt|Colander|Holt|Rosser|2004|p=485}}</ref> They classify complexity economics as now  mainstream but [[Heterodox economics|non-orthodox]].<ref name=CHR04e>"The second (Santa Fe) conference saw a very different outcome and atmosphere than the first. No longer were mainstream economists defensively adhering to general equilibrium orthodoxy... By 1997, the mainstream accepted many of the methods and approaches that were associated with the complexity approach." {{harvtxt|Colander|Holt|Rosser|2004|p=497}} {{harvtxt|Colander|Holt|Rosser|2004|pp=490–492}} distinguish between orthodox and mainstream economics.</ref><ref name=DAV2008b>{{harvtxt|Davis|2008|p=354}}</ref>

According to {{harvtxt|Colander|2000}}, {{harvtxt|Colander|Holt|Rosser|2004}}, and {{harvtxt|Davis|2008}} contemporary [[mainstream economics]] is evolving to be more "eclectic",<ref name=COL2000a>"Economists today are not neoclassical according to any reasonable definition of the term. They are far more eclectic, and concerned with different issues than were the economists of the early 1900s, whom the term was originally designed to describe." {{harvtxt|Colander|2000|p=130}}</ref><ref name=COL2000b>"Modern economics involves a broader world view and is far more eclectic than the neoclassical terminology allows." {{harvtxt|Colander|2000|p=133}}</ref> diverse,<ref name=CHR04a>"In our view, the interesting story in economics over the past decades is the increasing variance of acceptable views..." {{harvtxt|Colander|Holt|Rosser|2004|p=487}}</ref><ref name=CHR04b>"In work at the edge, ideas that previously had been considered central to economics are being modified and broadened, and the process is changing the very nature of economics." {{harvtxt|Colander|Holt|Rosser|2004|p=487}}</ref><ref name=CHR04c>"When certain members of the existing elite become open to new ideas, that openness allows new ideas to expand, develop, and integrate into the profession... These alternative channels allow the mainstream to expand, and to evolve to include a wider range of approaches and understandings... This, we believe, is already occurring in economics." {{harvtxt|Colander|Holt|Rosser|2004|pp=488–489}}</ref> and [[Pluralism in economics|pluralistic]].<ref name=DAV2008a>"despite an increasing pluralism on the mainstream&nbsp;economics research&nbsp;frontier..." {{harvtxt|Davis|2008|p=353}}</ref> {{harvtxt|Colander|Holt|Rosser|2004}} state that contemporary mainstream economics is "moving away from a strict adherence to the holy trinity – rationality, selfishness, and equilibrium", citing complexity economics along with [[recursive economics]] and [[dynamical system]]s as contributions to these trends.<ref name=CHR04d>{{harvtxt|Colander|Holt|Rosser|2004|p=485}}</ref> They classify complexity economics as now  mainstream but [[Heterodox economics|non-orthodox]].<ref name=CHR04e>"The second (Santa Fe) conference saw a very different outcome and atmosphere than the first. No longer were mainstream economists defensively adhering to general equilibrium orthodoxy... By 1997, the mainstream accepted many of the methods and approaches that were associated with the complexity approach." {{harvtxt|Colander|Holt|Rosser|2004|p=497}} {{harvtxt|Colander|Holt|Rosser|2004|pp=490–492}} distinguish between orthodox and mainstream economics.</ref><ref name=DAV2008b>{{harvtxt|Davis|2008|p=354}}</ref>

== Criticism ==

== 批评 Criticism ==

 

 

In 1995-1997 publications, ''[[Scientific American]]'' journalist John Horgan "ridiculed" the movement as being the fourth ''C'' among the "failed fads" of  "[[complexity]], [[chaos theory|chaos]], [[catastrophe theory|catastrophe]], and [[cybernetics]]".<ref name=Rosser1999/> In 1997, Horgan wrote that the approach had "created some potent metaphors: the [[butterfly effect]], [[fractal]]s, [[artificial life]], the [[edge of chaos]], [[self organized criticality]].  But they have not told us anything about the world that is both concrete and truly surprising, either in a negative or in a positive sense."<ref name=Rosser1999>{{cite journal | last1 = Rosser Jr | first1 = J. Barkley | year = 1999 | title = On the Complexities of Complex Economic Dynamics | journal = Journal of Economic Perspectives | volume = 13 | issue = 4| pages = 169–192 | doi=10.1257/jep.13.4.169}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal | last1 = Horgan | first1 = John | year = 1995 | title = From Complexity to Perplexity | url = | journal = Scientific American | volume = 272 | issue = 6| pages = 104–09 | doi=10.1038/scientificamerican0695-104| bibcode = 1995SciAm.272f.104H}}</ref><ref>Horgan, John, The End of Science: Facing the Limits of Knowledge in the Twilight of the Scientific Age. Paperback ed, New York: Broadway Books, 1997.</ref>

In 1995-1997 publications, ''[[Scientific American]]'' journalist John Horgan "ridiculed" the movement as being the fourth ''C'' among the "failed fads" of  "[[complexity]], [[chaos theory|chaos]], [[catastrophe theory|catastrophe]], and [[cybernetics]]".<ref name=Rosser1999/> In 1997, Horgan wrote that the approach had "created some potent metaphors: the [[butterfly effect]], [[fractal]]s, [[artificial life]], the [[edge of chaos]], [[self organized criticality]].  But they have not told us anything about the world that is both concrete and truly surprising, either in a negative or in a positive sense."<ref name=Rosser1999>{{cite journal | last1 = Rosser Jr | first1 = J. Barkley | year = 1999 | title = On the Complexities of Complex Economic Dynamics | journal = Journal of Economic Perspectives | volume = 13 | issue = 4| pages = 169–192 | doi=10.1257/jep.13.4.169}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal | last1 = Horgan | first1 = John | year = 1995 | title = From Complexity to Perplexity | url = | journal = Scientific American | volume = 272 | issue = 6| pages = 104–09 | doi=10.1038/scientificamerican0695-104| bibcode = 1995SciAm.272f.104H}}</ref><ref>Horgan, John, The End of Science: Facing the Limits of Knowledge in the Twilight of the Scientific Age. Paperback ed, New York: Broadway Books, 1997.</ref>

In 1995-1997 publications, Scientific American journalist John Horgan "ridiculed" the movement as being the fourth C among the "failed fads" of  "complexity, chaos, catastrophe, and cybernetics".

In 1995-1997 publications, Scientific American journalist John Horgan "ridiculed" the movement as being the fourth C among the "failed fads" of  "complexity, chaos, catastrophe, and cybernetics".

在1995-1997年的出版物中，《科学美国人》的记者约翰 · 霍根“嘲笑”这场运动是“复杂性、混乱、灾难和控制论”的“失败潮流”中的第四个 c。

在1995-1997年的出版物中，《科学美国人》记者约翰·霍根（John Horgan）嘲笑该运动是“复杂性、混乱、灾难和控制论”的“失败潮流”中的第四个C。

 

 

 

Rosser "granted" Horgan "that it  is hard to identify a concrete and surprising discovery (rather than "mere metaphor") that has arisen due to the emergence of complexity analysis" in the discussion journal of the American Economic Association, the Journal of Economic Perspectives.  Surveying economic studies based on complexity science, Rosser wrote that the findings, rather than being surprising, confirmed "already-observed facts." Rosser wrote that there has been "little work on empirical techniques for testing dispersed&nbsp;agent complexity&nbsp;models." Nonetheless, Rosser wrote that "there is a strain of common perspective that has been accumulating as the four C's of cybernetics, catastrophe, chaos, and complexity emerged, which may now be reaching a critical mass in terms of influencing the thinking of economists more broadly."

Rosser "granted" Horgan "that it  is hard to identify a concrete and surprising discovery (rather than "mere metaphor") that has arisen due to the emergence of complexity analysis" in the discussion journal of the American Economic Association, the Journal of Economic Perspectives.  Surveying economic studies based on complexity science, Rosser wrote that the findings, rather than being surprising, confirmed "already-observed facts." Rosser wrote that there has been "little work on empirical techniques for testing dispersed&nbsp;agent complexity&nbsp;models." Nonetheless, Rosser wrote that "there is a strain of common perspective that has been accumulating as the four C's of cybernetics, catastrophe, chaos, and complexity emerged, which may now be reaching a critical mass in terms of influencing the thinking of economists more broadly."

在美国经济协会的讨论期刊《经济展望》(Journal of Economic Perspectives)上，罗塞(Rosser)“承认”霍根(Horgan)说，由于复杂性分析的出现，很难找到一个具体而令人惊讶的发现(而不仅仅是“隐喻”)。在基于复杂性科学的经济学研究中，罗瑟写道，这些发现不是令人惊讶，而是证实了“已经观察到的事实”罗瑟写道，“在测试分散代理复杂性模型的经验技术方面几乎没有工作。”尽管如此，罗瑟写道，“随着控制论、灾难、混乱和复杂性四个 c 的出现，有一种共同的观点正在积累，这种观点现在可能已经达到了影响经济学家思维的临界质量。”

在美国经济协会的讨论期刊《经济展望》(Journal of Economic Perspectives)上，罗塞(Rosser)“承认”霍根(Horgan)说，由于复杂性分析的出现，很难找到一个具体而令人惊讶的发现(而不仅仅是“隐喻”)。在基于复杂性科学的经济学研究中，罗瑟写道，这些发现不是令人惊讶，而是证实了“已经观察到的事实”罗瑟写道，“在测试分散代理复杂性模型的经验技术方面几乎没有工作。”尽管如此，罗瑟写道，“随着控制论、灾难、混乱和复杂性四个C的出现，有一种共同的观点正在积累，这种观点现在可能已经达到了影响经济学家思维的临界质量。”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

注释

== 注释 Notes ==

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* {{cite journal|last1=Colander|first1=David|authorlink1=David Colander|title=The Death of Neoclassical Economics|journal=Journal of the History of Economic Thought|volume=22|year=2000|pages=127–143|ref=harv|issue=2|doi=10.1080/10427710050025330|url=http://www.middlebury.edu/services/econ/repec/mdl/ancoec/0237.pdf}}

* {{cite journal|last1=Colander|first1=David|authorlink1=David Colander|title=The Death of Neoclassical Economics|journal=Journal of the History of Economic Thought|volume=22|year=2000|pages=127–143|ref=harv|issue=2|doi=10.1080/10427710050025330|url=http://www.middlebury.edu/services/econ/repec/mdl/ancoec/0237.pdf}}

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