| Martin Ford 在《隧道中的灯光:自动化、加速技术和未来经济 The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future》<ref name="thelightsinthetunnel">Ford, Martin, The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future Archived 2010-09-06 at the Wayback Machine, Acculant Publishing, 2009, ISBN 978-1-4486-5981-4</ref>中提出了一个“技术悖论”:在奇点出现之前,经济体中的大多数日常工作都将自动化,因为这所需的技术水平低于奇点。这将导致大规模的失业和消费者需求的骤降,这反过来又会破坏投资于实现奇点所需技术的动机。工作的替代越来越不再局限于那些传统上被认为是“例行公事”的工作。<ref name="nytimes">Markoff, John (2011-03-04). "Armies of Expensive Lawyers, Replaced by Cheaper Software". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 2021-02-15. Retrieved 2017-02-25.</ref> | | Martin Ford 在《隧道中的灯光:自动化、加速技术和未来经济 The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future》<ref name="thelightsinthetunnel">Ford, Martin, The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future Archived 2010-09-06 at the Wayback Machine, Acculant Publishing, 2009, ISBN 978-1-4486-5981-4</ref>中提出了一个“技术悖论”:在奇点出现之前,经济体中的大多数日常工作都将自动化,因为这所需的技术水平低于奇点。这将导致大规模的失业和消费者需求的骤降,这反过来又会破坏投资于实现奇点所需技术的动机。工作的替代越来越不再局限于那些传统上被认为是“例行公事”的工作。<ref name="nytimes">Markoff, John (2011-03-04). "Armies of Expensive Lawyers, Replaced by Cheaper Software". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 2021-02-15. Retrieved 2017-02-25.</ref> |
− | Theodore Modis<ref name=:61>Modis, Theodore (2002) "Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change" Archived 2021-02-15 at the Wayback Machine, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 69, No 4, 2002, pp. 377 – 404</ref>和Jonathan Huebner<ref name="technological14">Huebner, Jonathan (2005) "A Possible Declining Trend for Worldwide Innovation" Archived 2015-03-22 at the Wayback Machine, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, October 2005, pp. 980–6</ref>认为技术创新的速度不仅停止上升,而且现在实际上正在下降。这种下降的证据是计算机时钟速率的增长正在放缓,尽管摩尔关于电路密度指数增长的预测仍然成立。这是由于芯片产生过多的热量,当它们以较高的速度运行时,这些热量不能足够快地散去,可能导致芯片熔化。在未来,随着更节能的CPU设计和多单元处理器的发明,速度的提高可能实现。<ref name="cnet">Krazit, Tom. Intel pledges 80 cores in five years Archived 2021-02-15 at the Wayback Machine, CNET News, 26 September 2006.</ref>尽管 Kurzweil利用了Modis的(工作成果)作为资源,同时 Modis 的工作围绕着加速变革,但 Modis对Kurzweil的“技术奇点”理论保持距离,称其缺乏科学严谨性。<ref name="Singularity Myth"/> | + | Theodore Modis<ref name=:61>Modis, Theodore (2002) "Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change" Archived 2021-02-15 at the Wayback Machine, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 69, No 4, 2002, pp. 377 – 404</ref>和Jonathan Huebner<ref name="technological14">Huebner, Jonathan (2005) "A Possible Declining Trend for Worldwide Innovation" Archived 2015-03-22 at the Wayback Machine, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, October 2005, pp. 980–6</ref>认为技术创新的速度不仅停止上升,而且现在实际上正在下降。这种下降的证据是计算机时钟速率的增长正在放缓,尽管摩尔关于电路密度指数增长的预测仍然成立。这是由于芯片产生过多的热量,当它们以较高的速度运行时,这些热量不能足够快地散去,可能导致芯片熔化。在未来,随着更节能的CPU设计和多单元处理器的发明,速度的提高可能实现。<ref name="cnet">Krazit, Tom. Intel pledges 80 cores in five years Archived 2021-02-15 at the Wayback Machine, CNET News, 26 September 2006.</ref>尽管 Kurzweil利用了Modis的(工作成果)作为资源,同时 Modis 的工作围绕着加速变革,但 Modis对Kurzweil的“技术奇点”理论保持距离,称其缺乏科学严谨性。<ref name="Singularity Myth">Modis, Theodore (2006) "The Singularity Myth" Archived 2021-02-15 at the Wayback Machine, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, February 2006, pp. 104 - 112</ref> |
| 在一份详细的实证报告《计算的进步 The Progress of Computing》中,威廉·诺德豪斯 William Nordhaus认为,在 1940 年之前,计算机遵循传统工业经济增长缓慢的趋势,因此拒绝了摩尔定律对19世纪计算机的推断。<ref>{{Cite journal | doi=10.1017/S0022050707000058|title = Two Centuries of Productivity Growth in Computing| journal=The Journal of Economic History| volume=67|pages = 128–159|year = 2007|last1 = Nordhaus|first1 = William D.| citeseerx=10.1.1.330.1871}}</ref> | | 在一份详细的实证报告《计算的进步 The Progress of Computing》中,威廉·诺德豪斯 William Nordhaus认为,在 1940 年之前,计算机遵循传统工业经济增长缓慢的趋势,因此拒绝了摩尔定律对19世纪计算机的推断。<ref>{{Cite journal | doi=10.1017/S0022050707000058|title = Two Centuries of Productivity Growth in Computing| journal=The Journal of Economic History| volume=67|pages = 128–159|year = 2007|last1 = Nordhaus|first1 = William D.| citeseerx=10.1.1.330.1871}}</ref> |