7,129
个编辑
更改
跳到导航
跳到搜索
第57行：
第57行： − + − The horizontal domain of a model is either ''global'', covering the entire Earth, or ''regional'', covering only part of the Earth. Regional models also are known as ''limited-area'' models, or LAMs. Regional models use finer grid spacing to resolve explicitly smaller-scale meteorological phenomena, since their smaller domain decreases computational demands. Regional models use a compatible global model for initial conditions of the edge of their domain. Uncertainty and errors within LAMs are introduced by the global model used for the boundary conditions of the edge of the regional model, as well as within the creation of the boundary conditions for the LAMs itself.<ref>{{cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=6RQ3dnjE8lgC&pg=PA261|title=Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction|author=Warner, Thomas Tomkins |publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]|year=2010|isbn=978-0-521-51389-0|page=259}}</ref>+ − The horizontal domain of a model is either global, covering the entire Earth, or regional, covering only part of the Earth. Regional models also are known as limited-area models, or LAMs. Regional models use finer grid spacing to resolve explicitly smaller-scale meteorological phenomena, since their smaller domain decreases computational demands. Regional models use a compatible global model for initial conditions of the edge of their domain. Uncertainty and errors within LAMs are introduced by the global model used for the boundary conditions of the edge of the regional model, as well as within the creation of the boundary conditions for the LAMs itself. − 一个模型的水平域要么是全球性的，覆盖整个地球; 要么是区域性的，只覆盖地球的一部分。区域模型也称为有限区域模型(LAMs)。区域模型使用更精细的网格间距来明确地解决较小尺度的气象现象，因为它们较小的区域减少了计算需求。区域模型使用一个兼容的全局模型来处理区域边缘的初始条件。区域模型边界条件的全局模型以及区域模型本身边界条件的创建都引入了区域模型内部的不确定性和误差。+ − 【终稿】一个模式的水平范围可以是全球性的，覆盖整个地球；也可以是区域性的，只覆盖地球的一部分。区域模式也被称为有限区域模式（LAMs）。区域模式使用更加精细的网格来明确地解决较小尺度的气象现象，因为它们更小的水平范围降低了计算量的要求。区域模式使用一个兼容的全球模式来获得区域模式边界处的初始条件。用以获得区域模式的边界条件的全球模式，以及区域模式本身创造的边界条件，共同引入区域模式的的不确定度和误差。 − The vertical coordinate is handled in various ways. Some models, such as Richardson's 1922 model, use geometric height (<math>z</math>) as the vertical coordinate. Later models substituted the geometric <math>z</math> coordinate with a pressure coordinate system, in which the [[geopotential height]]s of constant-pressure surfaces become [[dependent variable]]s, greatly simplifying the primitive equations.<ref name="Lynch Ch2">{{cite book|last=Lynch|first=Peter|title=The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction|year=2006|publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]|isbn=978-0-521-85729-1|pages=45–46|chapter=The Fundamental Equations}}</ref> This follows since pressure decreases with height through the [[Earth's atmosphere]].<ref>{{cite book|author=Ahrens, C. Donald|page=10|isbn=978-0-495-11558-8|year=2008|publisher=Cengage Learning|title=Essentials of meteorology: an invitation to the atmosphere|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=2Yn29IFukbgC&pg=PA244}}</ref> The first model used for operational forecasts, the single-layer barotropic model, used a single pressure coordinate at the {{convert|500|mbar|inHg|adj=on}} level,<ref name="Charney 1950" /> and thus was essentially two-dimensional. High-resolution models—also called ''mesoscale models''—such as the [[Weather Research and Forecasting model]] tend to use normalized pressure coordinates referred to as ''[[sigma coordinates]]''.<ref>{{cite web|last=Janjic |first=Zavisa |title=Scientific Documentation for the NMM Solver |url=http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/collections/technotes/asset-000-000-000-845.pdf |publisher=[[National Center for Atmospheric Research]] |access-date=2011-01-03 |author2=Gall, Robert |author3=Pyle, Matthew E. |pages=12–13 |date=February 2010 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110823082059/http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/collections/technotes/asset-000-000-000-845.pdf |archive-date=2011-08-23 }}</ref>+ + − The vertical coordinate is handled in various ways. Some models, such as Richardson's 1922 model, use geometric height (z) as the vertical coordinate. Later models substituted the geometric z coordinate with a pressure coordinate system, in which the geopotential heights of constant-pressure surfaces become dependent variables, greatly simplifying the primitive equations. This follows since pressure decreases with height through the Earth's atmosphere. The first model used for operational forecasts, the single-layer barotropic model, used a single pressure coordinate at the level, and thus was essentially two-dimensional. High-resolution models—also called mesoscale models—such as the Weather Research and Forecasting model tend to use normalized pressure coordinates referred to as sigma coordinates. − − 垂直坐标以各种方式处理。一些模型，如 Richardson 的1922模型，使用几何高度(z)作为垂直坐标。后来的模型用压力坐标系代替了几何 z 坐标，在压力坐标系中，等压面的位势高度变成了相关变量，极大地简化了原始方程组。这是因为通过地球大气层的压力随着高度的降低而降低。第一个用于业务预报的模式，即单层正压模式，在水平上使用单一的气压坐标，因此基本上是二维的。高分辨率模式ーー也称为中尺度模式ーー例如天气研究和预报模式往往使用称为 sigma 坐标的归一化气压坐标。 − − 【终稿】垂直坐标有多种方式处理。一些模式，如Richardson的1922模式，使用几何高度（z）作为垂直坐标。后来的模式使用压力坐标系代替了几何z坐标系，从而等压面的位势高度变成了因变量，极大地简化了原始方程组。这是因为地球大气层的压力随着高度增加而降低。第一个用于业务预报的模式，即单层正压模式，在水平面上使用一个简单的压力坐标，并因此基本上是二维的。高分辨率模式（也被称为中尺度模式），如WRF模式，则往往使用标准化压力坐标（sigma坐标）。 − − === Global versions === − − === Global versions === − − === 全球版本 === − − === 【终稿】全球模式版本 === − Some of the better known global numerical models are: − − Some of the better known global numerical models are: − − 一些比较著名的全球数值模型是: − − 【终稿】一些比较著名的全球数值模式有： − − *'''GFS''' [[Global Forecast System]] (previously AVN) – developed by [[NOAA]] − *'''NOGAPS''' – developed by the [[US Navy]] to compare with the GFS − *'''GEM''' [[Global Environmental Multiscale Model]] – developed by the [[Meteorological Service of Canada]] (MSC) − *'''IFS''' developed by the [[European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts]] − *'''UM''' [[Unified Model]] developed by the [[United Kingdom|UK]] [[Met Office]] − *'''ICON''' developed by the [[German Weather Service]], DWD, jointly with the Max-Planck-Institute (MPI) for Meteorology, Hamburg, NWP Global model of DWD − *'''ARPEGE''' developed by the French Weather Service, [[Météo-France]] − *'''IGCM''' [[Intermediate General Circulation Model]]<ref name="models">{{cite book|pages=295–301|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=6gFiunmKWWAC&pg=PA297|title=Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones: From Science to Mitigation|author1=Chan, Johnny C. L.|author2=Jeffrey D. Kepert |name-list-style=amp |year=2010|publisher=World Scientific|isbn=978-981-4293-47-1}}</ref> − − * GFS Global Forecast System (previously AVN) – developed by NOAA − * NOGAPS – developed by the US Navy to compare with the GFS − * GEM Global Environmental Multiscale Model – developed by the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) − * IFS developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts − * UM Unified Model developed by the UK Met Office − * ICON developed by the German Weather Service, DWD, jointly with the Max-Planck-Institute (MPI) for Meteorology, Hamburg, NWP Global model of DWD − * ARPEGE developed by the French Weather Service, Météo-France − * IGCM Intermediate General Circulation Model − − − * GFS 全球预报系统(前身为 AVN) -- 由 NOAA 开发 − * NOAA gap -- 由美国海军开发，用于与 GFS − * GEM 全球环境多尺度模式进行比较 -- 由加拿大气象服务中心开发 − * GEM 全球环境多尺度模式——由英国气象服务中心开发 − * UM 统一模式 − * ICON，由德国气象局开发 − * ICON，与德国汉堡马克斯-普朗克气象研究所(MPI)联合开发 − * ARPEGE 全球模式，由法国气象服务中心开发，m é o-france − * IGCM 中级环流模式 − 【终稿】 第127行：
第76行： − === Regional versions === − − === Regional versions === − − === 区域版本 === − − === 【终稿】区域模式版本 === − Some of the better known regional numerical models are: − Some of the better known regional numerical models are:+ + − 一些比较著名的区域数值模型是: − − 【终稿】一些比较著名的区域数值模式有： − − *'''WRF''' The [[Weather Research and Forecasting model]] was developed cooperatively by NCEP, NCAR, and the meteorological research community. WRF has several configurations, including: − **'''WRF-NMM''' The WRF Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model is the primary short-term weather forecast model for the U.S., replacing the Eta model. − **'''WRF-ARW''' Advanced Research WRF developed primarily at the U.S. [[National Center for Atmospheric Research]] (NCAR) − * '''[[North American Mesoscale Model|NAM]]''' The term North American Mesoscale model refers to whatever regional model [[National Centers for Environmental Prediction|NCEP]] operates over the North American domain. NCEP began using this designation system in January 2005. Between January 2005 and May 2006 the Eta model used this designation. Beginning in May 2006, NCEP began to use the WRF-NMM as the operational NAM. − *'''RAMS''' the [[Regional Atmospheric Modeling System]] developed at [[Colorado State University]] for numerical simulations of atmospheric meteorology and other environmental phenomena on scales from meters to hundreds of kilometers – now supported in the public domain − * '''MM5''' The [[MM5 (weather model)|Fifth Generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model]] − − *'''ARPS''' the Advanced Region Prediction System developed at the [[University of Oklahoma]] is a comprehensive multi-scale nonhydrostatic simulation and prediction system that can be used for regional-scale weather prediction up to the tornado-scale simulation and prediction. Advanced radar data assimilation for thunderstorm prediction is a key part of the system. − * '''[[HIRLAM]]''' High Resolution Limited Area Model, is developed by the European NWP research consortia [http://hirlam.org/ HIRLAM] co-funded by 10 European weather services. The meso-scale HIRLAM model is known as HARMONIE and developed in collaboration with Meteo France and ALADIN consortia. − * '''GEM-LAM''' Global Environmental Multiscale Limited Area Model, the high resolution 2.5 km (1.6 mi) GEM by the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) − *'''ALADIN''' The high-resolution limited-area hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic model developed and operated by several European and North African countries under the leadership of Météo-France<ref name="models" /> − *'''COSMO''' The COSMO Model, formerly known as LM, aLMo or LAMI, is a limited-area non-hydrostatic model developed within the framework of the Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling (Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Greece, Poland, Romania, and Russia).<ref>Consortium on Small Scale Modelling. [http://cosmo-model.cscs.ch/ Consortium for Small-scale Modeling.] Retrieved on 2008-01-13.</ref> − *'''[http://mesonh.aero.obs-mip.fr/ Meso-NH]''' The Meso-NH Model<ref>Lac, C., Chaboureau, P., Masson, V., Pinty, P., Tulet, P., Escobar, J., ... & Aumond, P. (2018). Overview of the Meso-NH model version 5.4 and its applications. Geoscientific Model Development, 11, 1929-1969.</ref> is a limited-area non-hydrostatic model developed jointly by the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques and the Laboratoire d'Aérologie (France, Toulouse) since 1998.<ref>Lafore, Jean Philippe, et al. "The Meso-NH atmospheric simulation system. Part I: Adiabatic formulation and control simulations." Annales geophysicae. Vol. 16. No. 1. Copernicus GmbH, 1998.</ref> Its application is from mesoscale to centimetric scales weather simulations. − − * WRF The Weather Research and Forecasting model was developed cooperatively by NCEP, NCAR, and the meteorological research community. WRF has several configurations, including: − ** WRF-NMM The WRF Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model is the primary short-term weather forecast model for the U.S., replacing the Eta model. − ** WRF-ARW Advanced Research WRF developed primarily at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) − * NAM The term North American Mesoscale model refers to whatever regional model NCEP operates over the North American domain. NCEP began using this designation system in January 2005. Between January 2005 and May 2006 the Eta model used this designation. Beginning in May 2006, NCEP began to use the WRF-NMM as the operational NAM. − * RAMS the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System developed at Colorado State University for numerical simulations of atmospheric meteorology and other environmental phenomena on scales from meters to hundreds of kilometers – now supported in the public domain − * MM5 The Fifth Generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model − * ARPS the Advanced Region Prediction System developed at the University of Oklahoma is a comprehensive multi-scale nonhydrostatic simulation and prediction system that can be used for regional-scale weather prediction up to the tornado-scale simulation and prediction. Advanced radar data assimilation for thunderstorm prediction is a key part of the system.. − * HIRLAM High Resolution Limited Area Model, is developed by the European NWP research consortia HIRLAM co-funded by 10 European weather services. The meso-scale HIRLAM model is known as HARMONIE and developed in collaboration with Meteo France and ALADIN consortia. − * GEM-LAM Global Environmental Multiscale Limited Area Model, the high resolution GEM by the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) − * ALADIN The high-resolution limited-area hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic model developed and operated by several European and North African countries under the leadership of Météo-France − * COSMO The COSMO Model, formerly known as LM, aLMo or LAMI, is a limited-area non-hydrostatic model developed within the framework of the Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling (Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Greece, Poland, Romania, and Russia).Consortium on Small Scale Modelling. Consortium for Small-scale Modeling. Retrieved on 2008-01-13. − * Meso-NH The Meso-NH ModelLac, C., Chaboureau, P., Masson, V., Pinty, P., Tulet, P., Escobar, J., ... & Aumond, P. (2018). Overview of the Meso-NH model version 5.4 and its applications. Geoscientific Model Development, 11, 1929-1969. is a limited-area non-hydrostatic model developed jointly by the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques and the Laboratoire d'Aérologie (France, Toulouse) since 1998.Lafore, Jean Philippe, et al. "The Meso-NH atmospheric simulation system. Part I: Adiabatic formulation and control simulations." Annales geophysicae. Vol. 16. No. 1. Copernicus GmbH, 1998. Its application is from mesoscale to centimetric scales weather simulations. − − − * WRF 天气研究和预报模型是由 NCEP、 NCAR 和气象研究团体共同开发的。WRF 有几种配置，包括: − * − * WRF-nmm WRF 非静力中尺度模式是美国主要的短期天气预报模式，取代了 Eta 模式。 − * − * WRF-ARW 高级研究 WRF 主要由美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR) − * NAM 术语“北美中尺度模式”指的是 NCEP 在北美地区运作的任何区域模式。NCEP 于2005年1月开始使用这一指定系统。2005年1月至2006年5月期间，埃塔模式使用了这一称号。从2006年5月开始，NCEP 开始使用 WRF-NMM 作为业务不结盟运动。 − * RAMS 区域大气模拟系统是科罗拉多州立大学开发的区域大气模拟系统，用于从数米到数百公里范围内的大气气象和其他环境现象的数值模拟，现已得到公共领域的支持 − * mm5第五代宾夕法尼亚州立大学/NCAR 中尺度模式 − * ARPS 奥克拉荷马大学开发的高级区域预报系统是一个综合性的多尺度非静力模拟和预报系统，可用于区域尺度的天气预报，直至龙卷尺度的模拟和预报。用于雷暴预报的先进雷达数据同化是该系统的关键部分。. − * HIRLAM 高分辨率有限区域模型，由欧洲数值天气预报研究联盟 HIRLAM 开发，由10个欧洲气象部门共同资助。中尺度的 HIRLAM 模型被称为 HARMONIE，是与 Meteo France 和 ALADIN 联盟合作开发的。 − * GEM-LAM 全球环境多尺度有限区域模型，由加拿大气象局提供的高分辨率 GEM − * ALADIN 高分辨率有限区域静水压和非静水压模型，由几个欧洲和北非国家在 Météo-France 领导下开发和运行 − * COSMO 模型，以前称为 COSMO，aLMo 或 LAMI，是在小尺度模型联合会(德国、瑞士、意大利、希腊、波兰、罗马尼亚和俄罗斯)框架内开发的有限区域非静水压模型。小尺度模型联合会。小规模建模联合会。2008-01-13. − * Meso-NH The Meso-NH ModelLac，c. ，Chaboureau，p. ，Masson，v. ，Pinty，p. ，Tulet，p. ，Escobar，j. ，... & Aumond，p. (2018).Meso-NH 模型版本5.4及其应用的概述。Geoscientific Model Development, 11, 1929-1969. is a limited-area non-hydrostatic model developed jointly by the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques and the Laboratoire d'Aérologie (France, Toulouse) since 1998.Lafore, Jean Philippe, et al.”Meso-NH 大气模拟系统。第一部分: 绝热制定和控制模拟地球物理年鉴。第一卷。16.没有。1.Copernicus GmbH, 1998.它的应用是从中尺度到厘米尺度的天气模拟。 − − − − 【终稿】 第200行：
第92行： + +
→Domains 范围
<br>
<br>
==Domains 范围==
==范围==
一个模式的水平范围可以是全球性的，覆盖整个地球；也可以是区域性的，只覆盖地球的一部分。区域模式也被称为有限区域模式（LAMs）。区域模式使用更加精细的网格来明确地解决较小尺度的气象现象，因为它们更小的水平范围降低了计算量的要求。区域模式使用一个兼容的全球模式来获得区域模式边界处的初始条件。用以获得区域模式的边界条件的全球模式，以及区域模式本身创造的边界条件，共同引入区域模式的的不确定度和误差。<ref>{{cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=6RQ3dnjE8lgC&pg=PA261|title=Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction|author=Warner, Thomas Tomkins |publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]|year=2010|isbn=978-0-521-51389-0|page=259}}</ref>
垂直坐标有多种方式处理。一些模式，如Richardson的1922模式，使用几何高度（z）作为垂直坐标。后来的模式使用压力坐标系代替了几何z坐标系，从而等压面的位势高度变成了因变量，极大地简化了原始方程组。这是因为地球大气层的压力随着高度增加而降低。<ref name="Lynch Ch2">{{cite book|last=Lynch|first=Peter|title=The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction|year=2006|publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]|isbn=978-0-521-85729-1|pages=45–46|chapter=The Fundamental Equations}}</ref> This follows since pressure decreases with height through the [[Earth's atmosphere]].<ref>{{cite book|author=Ahrens, C. Donald|page=10|isbn=978-0-495-11558-8|year=2008|publisher=Cengage Learning|title=Essentials of meteorology: an invitation to the atmosphere|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=2Yn29IFukbgC&pg=PA244}}</ref>第一个用于业务预报的模式，即单层正压模式，在500mbar水平面上使用一个简单的压力坐标，<ref name="Charney 1950" />并因此基本上是二维的。高分辨率模式（也被称为中尺度模式），如WRF模式，则往往使用标准化压力坐标（sigma坐标）。<ref>{{cite web|last=Janjic |first=Zavisa |title=Scientific Documentation for the NMM Solver |url=http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/collections/technotes/asset-000-000-000-845.pdf |publisher=[[National Center for Atmospheric Research]] |access-date=2011-01-03 |author2=Gall, Robert |author3=Pyle, Matthew E. |pages=12–13 |date=February 2010 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110823082059/http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/collections/technotes/asset-000-000-000-845.pdf |archive-date=2011-08-23 }}</ref>
=== 全球模式版本 ===
一些比较著名的全球数值模式有：
* '''GFS''' 全球预测系统（Global Forecast System，前身为AVN）——由NOAA开发
* '''GFS''' 全球预测系统（Global Forecast System，前身为AVN）——由NOAA开发
* '''NOGAPS''' ——由美国海军开发，用于和GFS比对
* '''NOGAPS''' ——由美国海军开发，用于和GFS比对
* '''IGCM''' 中间大气环流模式（Intermediate General Circulation Model）
* '''IGCM''' 中间大气环流模式（Intermediate General Circulation Model）
=== 区域模式版本 ===
一些比较著名的区域数值模式有：
* '''WRF''' 天气研究与预测模式（the Weather Research and Forecasting model），由NCEP、NCAR以及气象研究社区共同开发。WRF有多种配置，比如：
* '''WRF''' 天气研究与预测模式（the Weather Research and Forecasting model），由NCEP、NCAR以及气象研究社区共同开发。WRF有多种配置，比如：
** '''WRF-NMM''' WRF非流体静力学中尺度模式（the WRF Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model），这是美国主要的短期天气预测模式，用于替代Eta模式
** '''WRF-NMM''' WRF非流体静力学中尺度模式（the WRF Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model），这是美国主要的短期天气预测模式，用于替代Eta模式
* '''COSMO''' 模式，以前称为 LM，aLMo 或 LAMI，是在小尺度模式联合会(德国、瑞士、意大利、希腊、波兰、罗马尼亚和俄罗斯)框架内开发的有限区域非流体静力学模式。
* '''COSMO''' 模式，以前称为 LM，aLMo 或 LAMI，是在小尺度模式联合会(德国、瑞士、意大利、希腊、波兰、罗马尼亚和俄罗斯)框架内开发的有限区域非流体静力学模式。
* '''Meso-NH''' Meso-NH 模式是有限区域非流体静力学模式，自1998年来由法国国家气象研究中心和航空实验室（法国，图卢兹）联合开发，其应用领域包括从中尺度到厘米尺度的天气模拟。
* '''Meso-NH''' Meso-NH 模式是有限区域非流体静力学模式，自1998年来由法国国家气象研究中心和航空实验室（法国，图卢兹）联合开发，其应用领域包括从中尺度到厘米尺度的天气模拟。
<br>
==Model output statistics 模式输出统计==
==Model output statistics 模式输出统计==