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| | <math> \ \mbox{Adopters} = \int_{0} ^{t} \mbox{New adopters }\,dt </math> | | <math> \ \mbox{Adopters} = \int_{0} ^{t} \mbox{New adopters }\,dt </math> |
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| − | ===离散时间方程 Equations in discrete time=== | + | ===离散时间方程=== |
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| − | List of all the equations in [[discrete time]], in their order of execution in each year, for years 1 to 15 :
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| − | List of all the equations in discrete time, in their order of execution in each year, for years 1 to 15 :
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| | 离散时间内所有方程式的列表，按每年执行的次序，从第1年到第15年: | | 离散时间内所有方程式的列表，按每年执行的次序，从第1年到第15年: |
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| | + | <math>1) \ \mbox{Probability that contact has not yet adopted}=\mbox{Potential adopters} / (\mbox{Potential adopters } + \mbox{ Adopters}) </math> |
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| | + | <math>2) \ \mbox{Imitators}=q \cdot \mbox{Adopters} \cdot \mbox{Probability that contact has not yet adopted}</math> |
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| | + | <math>3) \ \mbox{Innovators}=p \cdot \mbox{Potential adopters} </math> |
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| − | <math>1) \ \mbox{Probability that contact has not yet adopted}=\mbox{Potential adopters} / (\mbox{Potential adopters } + \mbox{ Adopters}) </math>
| + | <math>4) \ \mbox{New adopters}=\mbox{Innovators}+\mbox{Imitators} </math> |
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| − | <math>1) \ \mbox{Probability that contact has not yet adopted}=\mbox{Potential adopters} / (\mbox{Potential adopters } + \mbox{ Adopters}) </math>
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| − | Math 1) mbox { contact 尚未采用} mbox { Potential Adopters } / ( mbox { Potential Adopters } + mbox { Adopters }) / math
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| − | <math>2) \ \mbox{Imitators}=q \cdot \mbox{Adopters} \cdot \mbox{Probability that contact has not yet adopted}</math>
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| − | <math>2) \ \mbox{Imitators}=q \cdot \mbox{Adopters} \cdot \mbox{Probability that contact has not yet adopted}</math>
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| − | 数学2) mbox { Imitators } q cdot mbox { Adopters } cdot mbox {概率，该联系人尚未采用} / math
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| − | <math>3) \ \mbox{Innovators}=p \cdot \mbox{Potential adopters} </math>
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| − | <math>3) \ \mbox{Innovators}=p \cdot \mbox{Potential adopters} </math>
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| − | 数学3) mbox { Innovators } p cdot mbox { Potential adopters } / math
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| − | <math>4) \ \mbox{New adopters}=\mbox{Innovators}+\mbox{Imitators} </math>
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| − | <math>4) \ \mbox{New adopters}=\mbox{Innovators}+\mbox{Imitators} </math>
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| − | 数学4) mbox { New adopters } mbox { Innovators } + mbox { Imitators } / math
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| − | <math>4.1) \ \mbox{Potential adopters}\ -= \mbox{New adopters }</math>
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| − | <math>4.1) \ \mbox{Potential adopters}\ -= \mbox{New adopters }</math>
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| − | 4.1) mbox { Potential adopters } - mbox { New adopters } / math
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| − | <math>4.2) \ \mbox{Adopters}\ += \mbox{New adopters }</math>
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| − | <math>4.2) \ \mbox{Adopters}\ += \mbox{New adopters }</math>
| + | <math>4.1) \ \mbox{Potential adopters}\ -= \mbox{New adopters }</math> |
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| − | 4.2) mbox { Adopters } mbox { New Adopters } / math | + | <math>4.2) \ \mbox{Adopters}\ += \mbox{New adopters }</math> |
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| | + | <math>\ p=0.03 </math> |
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| | + | <math>\ q=0.4 </math> |
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| | + | ====动态模拟结果==== |
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| − | <math>\ p=0.03 </math>
| + | 动态仿真结果表明，系统的行为将有增长的采纳者遵循一个经典的 s 曲线形状。<br /> |
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| − | <math>\ p=0.03 </math>
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| − | 数学0.03 / 数学
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| − | <math>\ q=0.4 </math>
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| − | <math>\ q=0.4 </math>
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| − | 数学0.4 / 数学
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| − | ====动态模拟结果 Dynamic simulation results====
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| − | The dynamic simulation results show that the behaviour of the system would be to have growth in ''adopters'' that follows a classic s-curve shape.<br />
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| − | The dynamic simulation results show that the behaviour of the system would be to have growth in adopters that follows a classic s-curve shape.<br />
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| − | 动态仿真结果表明，系统的行为将有增长的采纳者遵循一个经典的 s 曲线形状。 Br /
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| − | The increase in ''adopters'' is very slow initially, then exponential growth for a period, followed ultimately by saturation.
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| − | The increase in adopters is very slow initially, then exponential growth for a period, followed ultimately by saturation.
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| | 使用者的增长在一开始是非常缓慢的，然后是一段指数增长，最后是饱和。 | | 使用者的增长在一开始是非常缓慢的，然后是一段指数增长，最后是饱和。 |
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| | + | [[Image:Adoption SFD ANI.gif|centre| “新产品采用”模型的动态存量流量图|frame]] |
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| − | [[Image:Adoption SFD ANI.gif|centre|Dynamic stock and flow diagram of ''New product adoption'' model “新产品采用”模型的动态存量流量图|frame]]
| + | [[Image:SFDD VAL.gif|centre|年存量和流量值=0至15|frame]] |
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| − | 框架
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| − | [[Image:SFDD VAL.gif|centre|Stocks and flows values for years = 0 to 15 年存量和流量值=0至15|frame]] | |
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| − | 框架
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| | ===连续时间方程 Equations in continuous time=== | | ===连续时间方程 Equations in continuous time=== |