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== 早期观察 ==

== 早期观察 ==

1910年在伦敦城市规划会议上，丹尼尔 · 伯纳姆[[wikipedia:Daniel_Burnham|Daniel Burnham]]指出:“进步的基础，不仅仅只是事实或知识在数量上的堆砌，而是这些知识所呈现出的指数级的复杂度，和知识所涉足的领域的几何级数性的扩展，随着时间的推移，越来越多的人会参与到知识的创造过程中。” 在他发言的最后，他再次强调，“正如我一开始所提出来的观点，接下来的50年，会发生巨大的变化，发展的步伐会大大加快。等到我们的儿辈孙辈那个时候，他们对社会对变化的渴求，对技术的可能性的憧憬和要求，一定会令今天在座的我们震惊。”<ref name="Transactions">{{Cite book|url=https://archive.org/details/transactions00town|title=Transactions|first1=England)|last1=Town Planning Conference (1910 : London|last2=Royal Institute of British Architects|date=8 July 2018|publisher=London : Royal Institute of British Architects|via=Internet Archive}}</ref>

1938年，Buckminster Fuller引入了'''Ephermeralization'''这个概念来描述化学、医疗保健和其他工业发展领域中“少花钱多办事”的趋势。<ref>[[Buckminster Fuller|R. Buckminster Fuller]], ''Nine Chains to the Moon'', Southern Illinois University Press [1938] 1963 pp.&nbsp;276–79.</ref> 1946年，富勒发表了一张化学元素发现的时间表，展示了人类加速获取的知识的趋势。<ref>Buckminster Fuller|R. Buckminster Fuller, ''Synergetics (Fuller)'', http://www.rwgrayprojects.com/synergetics/s04/figs/f1903.html</ref>  

1958年，[[wikipedia:Stanislaw_Ulam|Stanislaw Ulam]]追忆冯''·'' 诺依曼 [[wikipedia:John_von_Neumann|John von Neumann]]的文中，回忆起他们之间的某次交谈：“在这次交谈中，我们围绕着不断加速的技术进步和人类生活方式的变革。从这些现象上来看，人类在这场旷日持久的科技竞赛中似乎正在迫近关键奇点，在这之后，我们熟悉的人类活动也许就要终结了。<ref name="mathematical">Ulam, Stanislaw (May 1958). "[https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-5-JeCa2Z7hbWcxTGsyU09HSTg/edit?pli=1 Tribute to John von Neumann]". 64, nr 3, part 2. Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society: 5.

1958年，Stanislaw Ulam追忆[[冯·诺依曼 ]]的文中，回忆起他们之间的某次交谈：“在这次交谈中，我们围绕着不断加速的技术进步和人类生活方式的变革。从这些现象上来看，人类在这场旷日持久的科技竞赛中似乎正在迫近关键奇点，在这之后，我们熟悉的人类活动也许就要终结了。<ref name="mathematical">Ulam, Stanislaw (May 1958). "[https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-5-JeCa2Z7hbWcxTGsyU09HSTg/edit?pli=1 Tribute to John von Neumann]". 64, nr 3, part 2. Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society: 5.</ref>

</ref>

 

==莫拉维克的思想之子 Minds Children ==

==莫拉维克的思想之子 Minds Children ==

计算机科学家和未来学家汉斯 · 莫拉维克在他1974-1979年发表的一系列文章中，以及1988年出版的《思想的孩子》一书中，将摩尔定律做了推广延伸。并据此预测了人工生命的未来发展趋势。严格来说，摩尔定律是特指半导体集成电路的复杂程度随着时间的推移，呈现出指数增长的规律。莫拉维克把摩尔定律的使用范围推广到半导体集成电路之外的技术领域，包括集成电路出现之前的一些技术，以及未来可能出现的新的技术形式。<ref>{{cite web| url=http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/general.articles/1993/Robot93.html| title= The Age of Robots|date=June 1993| first=Hans| last=Moravec| access-date=2006-06-23| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20060615055406/http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/general.articles/1993/Robot93.html| archive-date= 15 June 2006 | url-status= live}}</ref> 他绘制了一个时间技术演化表，从表中反映出的规律来看，他认为到2030-2040年开始，机器人将进化成一系列新的人工物种。<ref>{{cite web| url=http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/robot.papers/2004/Predictions.html| title=Robot Predictions Evolution| first=Hans| last=Moravec|date=April 2004| access-date=2006-06-23| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20060616045535/http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/robot.papers/2004/Predictions.html| archive-date= 16 June 2006 | url-status= live}}</ref>莫拉维克在1998年出版的《机器人: 从纯粹的机器到超验的思维》一书中，进一步分析了机器智能的演化的含义，发现了动物大脑的算力在演化时间轴上的增长速度与摩尔定律相似。据此，他认为这些趋势预示着与Vinge预测的智能爆炸相似的超级智能-心灵之火”即将到来。

==詹姆斯·伯克的关联 James Burke's Connections ==

伯克还探讨了伴随非线性历史观这个主要论点而来的三个推论。首先，如果历史是由一个个个体所驱动，而这些个体都是依据当时所知的不全面的信息而行动，而不是为了实现某个目的。那么，我们只能猜测而不能预测未来技术进步的进程。因此，通过了解伯克在剧中展现的去过事件之间风云交织的关系，可以推断今天发生的这些事情可能会在将来带来多么让人不可思议的后果。

伯克还探讨了伴随非线性历史观这个主要论点而来的三个推论。首先，如果历史是由一个个个体所驱动，而这些个体都是依据当时所知的不全面的信息而行动，而不是为了实现某个目的。那么，我们只能猜测而不能预测未来技术进步的进程。因此，通过了解伯克在剧中展现的去过事件之间风云交织的关系，可以推断今天发生的这些事情可能会在将来带来多么让人不可思议的后果。

而第二个和第三个推论，分别在导言部分和结尾部分重点讨论，主要展现的是伴随这样一个高度互联的历史而来的各种弊端。如果历史的演进确实表明，过去的事件和创新之间的是一个协同关系。那么，随着历史的演进，这些事件和创新的数量也会随之增加。因此，不断增加的事件之间的关联也会增加。这不仅会带来源源不断的创新，而且会导致创新的速度加快。伯克在这里提出了一个问题：如果创新的速度太快，创新给人们的生活带来太大的变化，以至于让绝大多数的普通人无力应对。到那时候，我们又该如何理解个人权力、自由和隐私呢？

而第二个和第三个推论，分别在导言部分和结尾部分重点讨论，主要展现的是伴随这样一个高度互联的历史而来的各种弊端。如果历史的演进确实表明，过去的事件和创新之间的是一个协同关系。那么，随着历史的演进，这些事件和创新的数量也会随之增加。因此，不断增加的事件之间的关联也会增加。这不仅会带来源源不断的创新，而且会导致创新的速度加快。伯克在这里提出了一个问题：如果创新的速度太快，创新给人们的生活带来太大的变化，以至于让绝大多数的普通人无力应对。到那时候，我们又该如何理解个人权力、自由和隐私呢？

==霍金斯的认知阶梯 Gerald Hawkins' Mindsteps ==

==霍金斯的认知阶梯 Gerald Hawkins' Mindsteps ==

杰拉德·霍金斯 [[wikipedia:Gerald_Hawkins|Gerald Hawkins]] 在他的著作《通向宇宙奥秘的认知阶梯》(Mindsteps to the Cosmos，HarperCollins，1983年8月)中阐明了他的“认知阶梯”Mindsteps 概念，即思维范式或世界观发生巨大的且不可逆转的变化。他认为人类历史上曾经历了五次“认知阶梯”式跨越，每一次认知跨越都伴随着技术的进步：图像操控能力、文字书写、数学、印刷术、望远镜、火箭、无线电、电视、计算机... ... “每一次进步都让人类整个群体的认知更接近客观存在的现实，帮助人们更好地理解人与宇宙之间的关系。”他指出: “这样的认知阶梯式的跨越所需要的时间越来越短，人们很难注意不到它正在加快。”霍金斯发明了一个经验性的方程来量化“认知阶梯”之间的时间间隔。由这个方程可以推算出人类跨越下一个认知阶梯，也就是人类历史上的第五个认知阶梯，将会发生在2021年。紧随其后的认知第六次和第七次将会发生在2045年和2051年。到2053年，人类集体的认知的能力达到极限。

数学家弗诺·文奇 Vernor Vinge在科幻小说《实时放逐 Marooned in Realtime》(1986)中讲述了一个技术以指数级的速度突飞猛进，导致越来越多越来越复杂的新技术越来越快的速度出现在人们的生活中，直到技术的发展超越了人类理解能力的极限。随后，他在斩获雨果奖的小说《深渊之火 A Fire Upon Deep》(1992)中，通过丰富的想象，揭开了一个超级智能文明访问正值科技暴涨，无所不能的人类文明。他在1993年发表的《技术奇点 Technological Singularity》的文章中也提纲挈领地概述了这个故事。

==库兹韦尔加速回报定律 Kurzweil's The Law of Accelerating Returns==

==库兹韦尔加速回报定律 Kurzweil's The Law of Accelerating Returns==

 

==加速变化的极限 Limits of Accelerating Change ==

==加速变化的极限 Limits of Accelerating Change ==

如果我们用科学的方法去分析自然科学中存在的一个过程，我们不难发现，那些最初阶段表现出指数增长这一特性的过程，最后都会进入饱和的状态。也就是说，如果我们观察到一个事物在一段时间以指数级的速度增长，这并不意味着这一过程会无休止地继续下去。相反，在许多情况下，这意味着提前达到饱和。从我们在自然科学中发现的规律来看，事物在一段时间的加速增长后(在物理过程中，这个阶段往往都是短暂的)，将会减缓甚至完全停滞？尽管在可预见的将来，科学和技术的加速进步可能会减缓，终结，但人类不会停止追求进步的脚步，因此社会社会变革也会持续以目前所达到的速度继续向前。<ref name=":2">[https://philosophyjournal.spbu.ru/article/view/3182/2943 Shestakova I.' To the Question of the Limits of Progress: Is a Singularity Possible?.]</ref>

如果我们用科学的方法去分析自然科学中存在的一个过程，我们不难发现，那些最初阶段表现出指数增长这一特性的过程，最后都会进入饱和的状态。也就是说，如果我们观察到一个事物在一段时间以指数级的速度增长，这并不意味着这一过程会无休止地继续下去。相反，在许多情况下，这意味着提前达到饱和。从我们在自然科学中发现的规律来看，事物在一段时间的加速增长后（在物理过程中，这个阶段往往都是短暂的），将会减缓甚至完全停滞？尽管在可预见的将来，科学和技术的加速进步可能会减缓，终结，但人类不会停止追求进步的脚步，因此社会社会变革也会持续以目前所达到的速度继续向前。<ref name=":2">[https://philosophyjournal.spbu.ru/article/view/3182/2943 Shestakova I.' To the Question of the Limits of Progress: Is a Singularity Possible?.]</ref>

这种加速变化的现象可能不局限于人类世，也许这是宇宙普遍的、可预见的发展特征。<ref name="auto">{{Cite book| publisher = Government Printing Office, NASA SP-2009-4802| pages = 201–295| editor1 = S. J. Dick| editor2 = Mark L. Lupisella| last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = Cosmos and Culture: Cultural Evolution in a Cosmic Context| chapter = Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture.| location = Washington D.C.| date = 2009| chapter-url = http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartEvoDevoUniv2008.pdf| access-date = 2017-03-15| archive-date = 2017-01-24| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20170124023933/http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartEvoDevoUniv2008.pdf| url-status = dead}}</ref> 产生加速变化的物理过程，如摩尔定律，实质上是一个正反馈体系。<ref name=":3">{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.07.006| issn = 0040-1625| volume = 78| issue = 8| pages = 1356–1364| last1 = Nagy| first1 = Béla| last2 = Farmer| first2 = J. Doyne| last3 = Trancik| first3 = Jessika E.| last4 = Gonzales| first4 = John Paul| title = Superexponential Long-Term Trends in Information Technology| journal = Technological Forecasting and Social Change| access-date = 2013-07-09| date = October 2011| url = http://www.santafe.edu/media/workingpapers/10-11-030.pdf| hdl = 1721.1/105411| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20140410202145/http://www.santafe.edu/media/workingpapers/10-11-030.pdf| archive-date = 2014-04-10| url-status = dead| hdl-access = free}}</ref> 这样的动力机制导致了日益高效和密集的对空间、时间、能量和物质(STEM 效率和密度，STEM“压缩”)的配置。<ref name="auto1">{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.actaastro.2011.11.006| issn = 0094-5765| volume = 78| pages = 55–68| last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = The Transcension Hypothesis: Sufficiently advanced civilizations invariably leave our universe, and implications for METI and SETI| journal = Acta Astronautica| url = http://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html| bibcode = 2012AcAau..78...55S| year = 2012| citeseerx = 10.1.1.695.2737| access-date = 2014-01-04| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20130922181839/http://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html| archive-date = 2013-09-22| url-status = dead}}</ref> 在物理世界，这种加速变化的发展过程最终会导致黑洞密度的组织。研究宇宙中物理计算的极限的研究者也得出了同样的结论。<ref name=":4">{{Cite journal| volume = 406| issue = 6799| pages = 1047–1054| last = Lloyd| first = S.| title = Ultimate Physical Limits to Computation| journal = Nature| date = 2000| arxiv = quant-ph/9908043| bibcode = 2000Natur.406.1047L| doi = 10.1038/35023282| pmid = 10984064| s2cid = 75923}}</ref><ref name=":5">{{Cite book| publisher = Penguin Books| last = Kurzweil| first = R.| title = The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology| url = https://archive.org/details/singularityisnea00kurz_214| url-access = limited| date = 2005| page=[https://archive.org/details/singularityisnea00kurz_214/page/n361 362]}}</ref>

这种加速变化的现象可能不局限于人类世，也许这是宇宙普遍的、可预见的发展特征。<ref name="auto">{{Cite book| publisher = Government Printing Office, NASA SP-2009-4802| pages = 201–295| editor1 = S. J. Dick| editor2 = Mark L. Lupisella| last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = Cosmos and Culture: Cultural Evolution in a Cosmic Context| chapter = Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture.| location = Washington D.C.| date = 2009| chapter-url = http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartEvoDevoUniv2008.pdf| access-date = 2017-03-15| archive-date = 2017-01-24| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20170124023933/http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartEvoDevoUniv2008.pdf| url-status = dead}}</ref> 产生加速变化的物理过程，如摩尔定律，实质上是一个正反馈体系。<ref name=":3">{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.07.006| issn = 0040-1625| volume = 78| issue = 8| pages = 1356–1364| last1 = Nagy| first1 = Béla| last2 = Farmer| first2 = J. Doyne| last3 = Trancik| first3 = Jessika E.| last4 = Gonzales| first4 = John Paul| title = Superexponential Long-Term Trends in Information Technology| journal = Technological Forecasting and Social Change| access-date = 2013-07-09| date = October 2011| url = http://www.santafe.edu/media/workingpapers/10-11-030.pdf| hdl = 1721.1/105411| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20140410202145/http://www.santafe.edu/media/workingpapers/10-11-030.pdf| archive-date = 2014-04-10| url-status = dead| hdl-access = free}}</ref> 这样的动力机制导致了日益高效和密集的对空间、时间、能量和物质(STEM 效率和密度，STEM“压缩”)的配置。<ref name="auto1">{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.actaastro.2011.11.006| issn = 0094-5765| volume = 78| pages = 55–68| last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = The Transcension Hypothesis: Sufficiently advanced civilizations invariably leave our universe, and implications for METI and SETI| journal = Acta Astronautica| url = http://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html| bibcode = 2012AcAau..78...55S| year = 2012| citeseerx = 10.1.1.695.2737| access-date = 2014-01-04| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20130922181839/http://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html| archive-date = 2013-09-22| url-status = dead}}</ref> 在物理世界，这种加速变化的发展过程最终会导致黑洞密度的组织。研究宇宙中物理计算的极限的研究者也得出了同样的结论。<ref name=":4">{{Cite journal| volume = 406| issue = 6799| pages = 1047–1054| last = Lloyd| first = S.| title = Ultimate Physical Limits to Computation| journal = Nature| date = 2000| arxiv = quant-ph/9908043| bibcode = 2000Natur.406.1047L| doi = 10.1038/35023282| pmid = 10984064| s2cid = 75923}}</ref><ref name=":5">{{Cite book| publisher = Penguin Books| last = Kurzweil| first = R.| title = The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology| url = https://archive.org/details/singularityisnea00kurz_214| url-access = limited| date = 2005| page=[https://archive.org/details/singularityisnea00kurz_214/page/n361 362]}}</ref>

如果我们把这一推想运用到地外文明的搜索努力中，我们就会得到高级智能生命是以黑洞的形式存在的。这样的高级生命形态可能不会过多地关注星外空间和星际扩张，而会更加关注黑洞的内部空间。<ref name=":6">{{Cite journal| issn = 0007-084X| volume = 61| issue = 7| pages = 246–254| last = Ćirković| first = Milan M.| title = Against the Empire| journal = Journal of the British Interplanetary Society| date = 2008| arxiv = 0805.1821| bibcode = 2008JBIS...61..246C}}</ref> 因此，它们将在某种程度上超越我们所理解的现实，而隐匿于我们的观察范围之外。这个理论，被冠名为“超越假说”<ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer International Publishing| isbn = 978-3-319-13235-8 | last = Webb| first = Stephen| title = If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... Where Is Everybody?| location = Cham| series = Science and Fiction| date = 2015| pages = 203–206}}</ref><ref name="auto" /><ref name="auto1" />，很好地解开了费米悖论。除了超越假说，另一个解决方案就是假设我们观察到的黑洞实际上可以理解为是一个吞食恒星的智能超文明，或“星食动物”<ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer International Publishing| isbn = 978-3-319-13235-8 | last = Webb| first = Stephen| title = If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... Where Is Everybody?| location = Cham| series = Science and Fiction| date = 2015| pages = 196–200}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.actaastro.2016.06.038| issn = 0094-5765| volume = 128| pages = 251–256| last = Vidal| first = C.| title = Stellivore extraterrestrials? Binary stars as living systems| journal = Acta Astronautica| date = 2016| bibcode = 2016AcAau.128..251V| url = https://zenodo.org/record/164853}}</ref>。这种演化发展动力学鼓励研究者将宇宙自身当做是一个不断演化和发展的超体生命<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.evodevouniverse.com|title=Evo Devo Universe Community|access-date=2018-04-25}}</ref> 。如果宇宙是某种超体生命，它可能也会以自然方式<ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 9| issue = 1| pages = 173–191| last = Smolin| first = Lee| title = Did the universe evolve?| journal = Classical and Quantum Gravity| date = 1992| bibcode = 1992CQGra...9..173S| doi = 10.1088/0264-9381/9/1/016}}</ref>或借助人工进行繁殖，而生活于其间的智能生命不可或缺。<ref>{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1007/s10699-010-9182-y| issn = 1233-1821| volume = 15| issue = 4| pages = 369–373| last = Crane| first = Louis| title = Possible Implications of the Quantum Theory of Gravity: An Introduction to the Meduso-Anthropic Principle| journal = Foundations of Science| date = 2010| arxiv = hep-th/9402104| s2cid = 118422569}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 36| issue = 3| pages = 193–203| last = Harrison| first = E. R.| title = The Natural Selection of Universes Containing Intelligent Life| journal = Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society| date = 1995| bibcode = 1995QJRAS..36..193H}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 5| issue = 3| pages = 34–45| last = Gardner| first = J. N.| title = The Selfish Biocosm: complexity as cosmology| journal = Complexity| date = 2000| doi=10.1002/(sici)1099-0526(200001/02)5:3<34::aid-cplx7>3.0.co;2-8| bibcode = 2000Cmplx...5c..34G}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Government Printing Office, NASA SP-2009-4802| pages = 201–295| editor1 = S. J. Dick |editor2= Mark L. Lupisella | last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = Cosmos and Culture: Cultural Evolution in a Cosmic Context| chapter = Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture.| location = Washington D.C.| date = 2009}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer| isbn = 978-3-319-05061-4| last = Vidal| first = C.| title = The Beginning and the End: The Meaning of Life in a Cosmological Perspective| location = New York| date = 2014| arxiv = 1301.1648| bibcode = 2013PhDT.........2V| doi = 10.1007/978-3-319-05062-1| series = The Frontiers Collection| s2cid = 118419030| url = http://cds.cern.ch/record/1748203| type = Submitted manuscript}}</ref>

如果我们把这一推想运用到地外文明的搜索努力中，我们就会得到高级智能生命是以黑洞的形式存在的。这样的高级生命形态可能不会过多地关注星外空间和星际扩张，而会更加关注黑洞的内部空间。<ref name=":6">{{Cite journal| issn = 0007-084X| volume = 61| issue = 7| pages = 246–254| last = Ćirković| first = Milan M.| title = Against the Empire| journal = Journal of the British Interplanetary Society| date = 2008| arxiv = 0805.1821| bibcode = 2008JBIS...61..246C}}</ref> 因此，它们将在某种程度上超越我们所理解的现实，而隐匿于我们的观察范围之外。这个理论，被冠名为“超越假说”<ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer International Publishing| isbn = 978-3-319-13235-8 | last = Webb| first = Stephen| title = If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... Where Is Everybody?| location = Cham| series = Science and Fiction| date = 2015| pages = 203–206}}</ref><ref name="auto" /><ref name="auto1" />，很好地解开了费米悖论。除了超越假说，另一个解决方案就是假设我们观察到的黑洞实际上可以理解为是一个吞食恒星的智能超文明，或“星食动物”<ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer International Publishing| isbn = 978-3-319-13235-8 | last = Webb| first = Stephen| title = If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... Where Is Everybody?| location = Cham| series = Science and Fiction| date = 2015| pages = 196–200}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.actaastro.2016.06.038| issn = 0094-5765| volume = 128| pages = 251–256| last = Vidal| first = C.| title = Stellivore extraterrestrials? Binary stars as living systems| journal = Acta Astronautica| date = 2016| bibcode = 2016AcAau.128..251V| url = https://zenodo.org/record/164853}}</ref>。这种演化发展动力学鼓励研究者将宇宙自身当做是一个不断演化和发展的超体生命<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.evodevouniverse.com|title=Evo Devo Universe Community|access-date=2018-04-25}}</ref> 。如果宇宙是某种超体生命，它可能也会以自然方式<ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 9| issue = 1| pages = 173–191| last = Smolin| first = Lee| title = Did the universe evolve?| journal = Classical and Quantum Gravity| date = 1992| bibcode = 1992CQGra...9..173S| doi = 10.1088/0264-9381/9/1/016}}</ref>或借助人工进行繁殖，而生活于其间的智能生命不可或缺。<ref>{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1007/s10699-010-9182-y| issn = 1233-1821| volume = 15| issue = 4| pages = 369–373| last = Crane| first = Louis| title = Possible Implications of the Quantum Theory of Gravity: An Introduction to the Meduso-Anthropic Principle| journal = Foundations of Science| date = 2010| arxiv = hep-th/9402104| s2cid = 118422569}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 36| issue = 3| pages = 193–203| last = Harrison| first = E. R.| title = The Natural Selection of Universes Containing Intelligent Life| journal = Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society| date = 1995| bibcode = 1995QJRAS..36..193H}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 5| issue = 3| pages = 34–45| last = Gardner| first = J. N.| title = The Selfish Biocosm: complexity as cosmology| journal = Complexity| date = 2000| doi=10.1002/(sici)1099-0526(200001/02)5:3<34::aid-cplx7>3.0.co;2-8| bibcode = 2000Cmplx...5c..34G}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Government Printing Office, NASA SP-2009-4802| pages = 201–295| editor1 = S. J. Dick |editor2= Mark L. Lupisella | last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = Cosmos and Culture: Cultural Evolution in a Cosmic Context| chapter = Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture.| location = Washington D.C.| date = 2009}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer| isbn = 978-3-319-05061-4| last = Vidal| first = C.| title = The Beginning and the End: The Meaning of Life in a Cosmological Perspective| location = New York| date = 2014| arxiv = 1301.1648| bibcode = 2013PhDT.........2V| doi = 10.1007/978-3-319-05062-1| series = The Frontiers Collection| s2cid = 118419030| url = http://cds.cern.ch/record/1748203| type = Submitted manuscript}}</ref>

==其它的预测模型==

==其它的预测模型==

在过去，技术的进步带来了巨大的经济腾飞。如果用人口增长这个指标来衡量经济水平的话，旧石器时代到新石器时代，经济每25万年翻一番。新的农业技术的出现，让经济显著增长，每900年就翻一番。在当代，从工业革命开始，世界经济总值每15年就翻一番，比农业文明时代快60倍。罗宾 · 汉森(Robin Hanson)认为，如果超级智能的增长引发一场类似的革命的话，那么经济总量可能每季度甚至每周就能翻一番。<ref name="Hanson">{{Citation |url=http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/robotics-software/economics-of-the-singularity |title=Economics Of The Singularity |author=Robin Hanson |work=IEEE Spectrum Special Report: The Singularity |access-date=2020-04-23 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110811005825/http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/robotics-software/economics-of-the-singularity |archive-date=2011-08-11 |url-status=dead }} & [http://hanson.gmu.edu/longgrow.pdf Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes]</ref>

未来学家和发明家巴克敏斯特·富勒 Richard Buckminster Fuller在1981年发表的《关键路径 Critical Path》书中，提出了一个通过信息增量来估算技术发展速度的模型。如果我们把人类在公元元年前积累和流通的的所有知识当作等于一个信息单位，那么大约1500年，也就是直到16世纪，这个知识量才增长了一倍。到1750年，也就是时隔250年后，知识从两个信息单位翻倍到了四个单位。而那之后的150年，知识再度翻倍，达到8个单位。可以看到，信息翻倍的速度越来越快。<ref>{{cite book |last1=Fuller |first1=Buckminster |title=Critical Path |url=https://archive.org/details/criticalpath00full |url-access=registration |date=1981 |isbn=0312174918}}</ref>而在现代，知识的增长更是到了前所未有的速度。这样一种发展趋势往往会在某个时刻达到爆炸性增长。这种加速变化的现象可以通过简单的倍增指数曲线来模拟。正是知识快速翻倍的现象让人们认为推测可能存在技术奇点: 技术进步的速度超过人类生物进化的速度。

未来学家和发明家巴克敏斯特·富勒在1981年发表的《关键路径》书中，提出了一个通过信息增量来估算技术发展速度的模型。如果我们把人类在公元元年前积累和流通的的所有知识当作等于一个信息单位，那么大约1500年，也就是直到16世纪，这个知识量才增长了一倍。到1750年，也就是时隔250年后，知识从两个信息单位翻倍到了四个单位。而那之后的150年，知识再度翻倍，达到8个单位。可以看到，信息翻倍的速度越来越快。<ref>{{cite book |last1=Fuller |first1=Buckminster |title=Critical Path |url=https://archive.org/details/criticalpath00full |url-access=registration |date=1981 |isbn=0312174918}}</ref>而在现代，知识的增长更是到了前所未有的速度。这样一种发展趋势往往会在某个时刻达到爆炸性增长。这种加速变化的现象可以通过简单的倍增指数曲线来模拟。正是知识快速翻倍的现象让人们认为推测可能存在技术奇点: 技术进步的速度超过人类生物进化的速度。

西奥多 · 莫迪斯 Theodore Modis和乔纳森 · 休布纳 Jonathan Huebner分别从不同的角度分析了技术革新的速度，他们认为技术创新的速度已经开始下降了。<ref name="auto2">{{Cite journal |last=Korotayev |first=Andrey |year=2018 |title=The 21st Century Singularity and its Big History Implications: A re-analysis  |journal=Journal of Big History |volume=2 |issue=3 |pages=71–118|doi=10.22339/jbh.v2i3.2320 |doi-access=free }}</ref>

==图库 Gallery==

==图库==

<gallery>

<gallery>

文件:PPTExponentialGrowthof Computing.jpeg|Computer power grows exponentially

文件:PPTExponentialGrowthof Computing.jpeg|Computer power grows exponentially

</gallery>

</gallery>

{{Reflist|30em}}

* [[wikipedia:Simulated_reality|Simulated reality]] – Hypothesis that reality could be simulated

 

 

 

 

 

==参考书目==

 

 

 

==参考书目 References==

*TechCast Article Series, Al Leedahl, [https://web.archive.org/web/20110304064527/http://www.techcast.org/Upload/PDFs/633427424769769211_TCAlLeedahl-AcceleratingChange.pdf Accelerating Change]

*TechCast Article Series, Al Leedahl, [https://web.archive.org/web/20110304064527/http://www.techcast.org/Upload/PDFs/633427424769769211_TCAlLeedahl-AcceleratingChange.pdf Accelerating Change]

*[http://edurss.ru/cgi-bin/db.pl?cp=&page=Book&id=53185&lang=en&blang=en&list=Found History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies]. Edited by [[Peter Turchin]], [[Leonid Grinin]], [[Andrey Korotayev]], and Victor C. de Munck. Moscow: KomKniga, 2006.

*[http://edurss.ru/cgi-bin/db.pl?cp=&page=Book&id=53185&lang=en&blang=en&list=Found History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies]. Edited by [[Peter Turchin]], [[Leonid Grinin]], [[Andrey Korotayev]], and Victor C. de Munck. Moscow: KomKniga, 2006.

*Kurzweil, Ray (2001),  [https://web.archive.org/web/20070517200550/http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=%2Farticles%2Fart0134.html Essay: The Law of Accelerating Returns]

*Kurzweil, Ray (2001),  [https://web.archive.org/web/20070517200550/http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=%2Farticles%2Fart0134.html Essay: The Law of Accelerating Returns]

* {{cite book |author-link=Francis Heylighen |last=Heylighen |first=Francis |date=2007 |chapter=Accelerating socio-technological evolution: from ephemeralization and stigmergy to the Global Brain |chapter-url=http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/Papers/AcceleratingEvolution.pdf |editor1-link=George Modelski |editor1-first=George |editor1-last=Modelski |editor2-first=Tessaleno |editor2-last=Devezas |editor3-first=William |editor3-last=Thompson |title=Globalization as evolutionary process: Modeling global change |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=JHKTAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA284 |place=London | publisher=Routledge | series=Rethinking Globalizations |isbn=978-0-415-77361-4 |pages=284–335}}

* {{cite book |author-link=Francis Heylighen |last=Heylighen |first=Francis |date=2007 |chapter=Accelerating socio-technological evolution: from ephemeralization and stigmergy to the Global Brain |chapter-url=http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/Papers/AcceleratingEvolution.pdf |editor1-link=George Modelski |editor1-first=George |editor1-last=Modelski |editor2-first=Tessaleno |editor2-last=Devezas |editor3-first=William |editor3-last=Thompson |title=Globalization as evolutionary process: Modeling global change |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=JHKTAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA284 |place=London | publisher=Routledge | series=Rethinking Globalizations |isbn=978-0-415-77361-4 |pages=284–335}}

==扩展阅读 Further reading==

 

 

==扩展阅读==

* Link, Stefan J. ''Forging Global Fordism: Nazi Germany, Soviet Russia, and the Contest over the Industrial Order'' (2020) [https://www.amazon.com/Forging-Global-Fordism-Germany-Industrial/dp/0691177546/ excerpt]

* Link, Stefan J. ''Forging Global Fordism: Nazi Germany, Soviet Russia, and the Contest over the Industrial Order'' (2020) [https://www.amazon.com/Forging-Global-Fordism-Germany-Industrial/dp/0691177546/ excerpt]

==外部链接 External links==

==外部链接 External links==

* 俗务周期与千禧潮流 [http://repositories.cdlib.org/imbs/socdyn/wp/wp6/ Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends]

* 俗务周期与千禧潮流 [http://repositories.cdlib.org/imbs/socdyn/wp/wp6/ Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends]

[[Category:待整理页面]]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[[Category:历史理论]]