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2022年3月6日 (日) 12:34的版本

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[[File:Two women operating ENIAC.gif|thumb|280px|The ENIAC main control panel at the Moore School of Electrical Engineering]]
 
[[File:Two women operating ENIAC.gif|thumb|280px|The ENIAC main control panel at the Moore School of Electrical Engineering]]
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数值天气预报的历史起于20世纪20年代，这得益于 Lewis Fry Richardson 使用了 Vihelm Bjerknes 开发的方法的成果。<ref name="Lynch JCP">{{cite journal|last=Lynch|author-link=Peter Lynch (meteorologist)|first=Peter|title=The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling|journal=Journal of Computational Physics|date=2008-03-20|volume=227|issue=7|pages=3431–44|doi= 10.1016/j.jcp.2007.02.034 |url=http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/personal/miskandarani/Courses/MPO662/Lynch,Peter/OriginsCompWF.JCP227.pdf|access-date= 2010-12-23 |bibcode=2008JCoPh.227.3431L|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100708191309/http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/personal/miskandarani/Courses/MPO662/Lynch,Peter/OriginsCompWF.JCP227.pdf|archive-date=2010-07-08|url-status=dead}}</ref><ref name="Lynch Ch1">{{cite book|last=Lynch |first= Peter |title=The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction|year=2006|publisher=Cambridge University Press|isbn=978-0-521-85729-1|pages=1–27 |chapter= Weather Prediction by Numerical Process}}</ref>直到计算机和计算机模拟时代的到来，计算时间才降低到少于被预测时段。ENIAC 在1950年发明了第一台计算机预测系统，<ref name="Charney 1950">{{cite journal|last1= Charney|first1=Jule|last2=Fjörtoft|first2=Ragnar|last3=von Neumann|first3=John|title=Numerical Integration of the Barotropic Vorticity Equation|journal= Tellus|date=November 1950|volume=2|issue=4|doi=10.3402/tellusa.v2i4.8607|author-link1=Jule Charney|author-link3=John von Neumann|bibcode= 1950TellA...2..237C |pages=237–254|doi-access=free}}</ref><ref>{{cite book|title=Storm Watchers|page=[https://archive.org/details/stormwatcherstur00cox_df1/page/208 208]|year=2002|author=Cox, John D.|publisher=John Wiley & Sons, Inc.|isbn=978-0-471-38108-2|url=https://archive.org/details/stormwatcherstur00cox_df1/page/208}}</ref>之后功能更强大的计算机增加了初始数据集的规模，并包含了更复杂的运动方程的版本。<ref name="Harper BAMS">{{cite journal|last=Harper|first=Kristine|author2=Uccellini, Louis W.|author3= Kalnay, Eugenia|author4= Carey, Kenneth|author5= Morone, Lauren|title=2007: 50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction|journal=Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society|date=May 2007|volume=88|issue=5|pages=639–650|doi=10.1175/BAMS-88-5-639 |bibcode=2007BAMS...88..639H |doi-access=free}}</ref>1966年，西德和美国开始根据原始方程模式制作业务预测系统，1972年英国和1977年澳大利亚紧随其后。<ref name="Lynch JCP"/><ref name="Leslie BOM">{{cite journal|last=Leslie|first=L.M.|author2=Dietachmeyer, G.S.|title=Real-time limited area numerical weather prediction in Australia: a historical perspective|journal=Australian Meteorological Magazine|date=December 1992|volume=41|issue=SP|pages=61–77|url=http://www.bom.gov.au/amoj/docs/1992/leslie2.pdf|access-date=2011-01-03|publisher=Bureau of Meteorology}}</ref> 全球预报模式的发展导致了第一个气候模式的诞生。<ref name="Phillips"/><ref name="Cox210"/>在20世纪70年代和20世纪80年代，有限区域（区域性）模式的发展推动了热带气旋轨道和空气质量预报的进步。<ref name="Shuman W&F">{{cite journal|last=Shuman|first=Frederick G.|author-link=Frederick Gale Shuman|title=History of Numerical Weather Prediction at the National Meteorological Center|journal=Weather and Forecasting|date=September 1989|volume=4|issue=3|pages=286–296|doi= 10.1175/1520-0434(1989)004<0286:HONWPA>2.0.CO;2 |issn=1520-0434|bibcode=1989WtFor...4..286S|doi-access=free}}</ref><ref name="Steyn, D. G. 1991 241–242">{{cite book|title=Air pollution modeling and its application VIII, Volume 8|author=Steyn, D. G.|publisher=Birkhäuser|year=1991|pages=241–242|isbn= 978-0-306-43828-8}}</ref>
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数值天气预报的历史起于20世纪20年代，这得益于 Lewis Fry Richardson 使用了 Vihelm Bjerknes 开发的方法的成果。<ref name="Lynch JCP">{{cite journal|last=Lynch|first=Peter|title=The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling|journal=Journal of Computational Physics|date=2008-03-20|volume=227|issue=7|pages=3431–44|doi= 10.1016/j.jcp.2007.02.034 |url=http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/personal/miskandarani/Courses/MPO662/Lynch,Peter/OriginsCompWF.JCP227.pdf|access-date= 2010-12-23 |bibcode=2008JCoPh.227.3431L|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100708191309/http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/personal/miskandarani/Courses/MPO662/Lynch,Peter/OriginsCompWF.JCP227.pdf|archive-date=2010-07-08|url-status=dead}}</ref><ref name="Lynch Ch1">{{cite book|last=Lynch |first= Peter |title=The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction|year=2006|publisher=Cambridge University Press|isbn=978-0-521-85729-1|pages=1–27 |chapter= Weather Prediction by Numerical Process}}</ref>直到计算机和计算机模拟时代的到来，计算时间才降低到少于被预测时段。ENIAC 在1950年发明了第一台计算机预测系统，<ref name="Charney 1950">{{cite journal|last1= Charney|first1=Jule|last2=Fjörtoft|first2=Ragnar|last3=von Neumann|first3=John|title=Numerical Integration of the Barotropic Vorticity Equation|journal= Tellus|date=November 1950|volume=2|issue=4|doi=10.3402/tellusa.v2i4.8607|bibcode= 1950TellA...2..237C |pages=237–254|doi-access=free}}</ref><ref>{{cite book|title=Storm Watchers|page=[https://archive.org/details/stormwatcherstur00cox_df1/page/208 208]|year=2002|author=Cox, John D.|publisher=John Wiley & Sons, Inc.|isbn=978-0-471-38108-2|url=https://archive.org/details/stormwatcherstur00cox_df1/page/208}}</ref>之后功能更强大的计算机增加了初始数据集的规模，并包含了更复杂的运动方程的版本。<ref name="Harper BAMS">{{cite journal|last=Harper|first=Kristine|author2=Uccellini, Louis W.|author3= Kalnay, Eugenia|author4= Carey, Kenneth|author5= Morone, Lauren|title=2007: 50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction|journal=Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society|date=May 2007|volume=88|issue=5|pages=639–650|doi=10.1175/BAMS-88-5-639 |bibcode=2007BAMS...88..639H |doi-access=free}}</ref>1966年，西德和美国开始根据原始方程模式制作业务预测系统，1972年英国和1977年澳大利亚紧随其后。<ref name="Lynch JCP"/><ref name="Leslie BOM">{{cite journal|last=Leslie|first=L.M.|author2=Dietachmeyer, G.S.|title=Real-time limited area numerical weather prediction in Australia: a historical perspective|journal=Australian Meteorological Magazine|date=December 1992|volume=41|issue=SP|pages=61–77|url=http://www.bom.gov.au/amoj/docs/1992/leslie2.pdf|access-date=2011-01-03|publisher=Bureau of Meteorology}}</ref> 全球预报模式的发展导致了第一个气候模式的诞生。<ref name="Phillips"/><ref name="Cox210"/>在20世纪70年代和20世纪80年代，有限区域（区域性）模式的发展推动了热带气旋轨道和空气质量预报的进步。<ref name="Shuman W&F">{{cite journal|last=Shuman|first=Frederick G.|title=History of Numerical Weather Prediction at the National Meteorological Center|journal=Weather and Forecasting|date=September 1989|volume=4|issue=3|pages=286–296|doi= 10.1175/1520-0434(1989)004<0286:HONWPA>2.0.CO;2 |issn=1520-0434|bibcode=1989WtFor...4..286S|doi-access=free}}</ref><ref name="Steyn, D. G. 1991 241–242">{{cite book|title=Air pollution modeling and its application VIII, Volume 8|author=Steyn, D. G.|publisher=Birkhäuser|year=1991|pages=241–242|isbn= 978-0-306-43828-8}}</ref>
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由于基于大气动力学的预报模式的输出结果需要近地面处的修正，因此20世纪70年代和20世纪80年代开发了单个预报位点的模式输出统计（MOS）。<ref name="MOS" /><ref name="L. Best, D. L. and S. P. Pryor 1983 1–90">{{cite book|title=Air Weather Service Model Output Statistics Systems|author1=L. Best, D. L.  |author2=S. P. Pryor |year=1983|pages=1–90|publisher=Air Force Global Weather Central}}</ref>尽管超级计算机的能力不断提升，数值天气模式的预报仅能延伸到未来两周左右，这是因为观测点的密度和质量以及被用来预测的偏微分方程的混沌本质都会引入每五天加倍的误差。<ref name="Cox">{{cite book|title=Storm Watchers|pages=[https://archive.org/details/stormwatcherstur00cox_df1/page/222 222–224]|year=2002|author=Cox, John D.|publisher=John Wiley & Sons, Inc.|isbn=978-0-471-38108-2|url=https://archive.org/details/stormwatcherstur00cox_df1/page/222}}</ref><ref name="Klaus">Weickmann, Klaus, Jeff Whitaker, Andres Roubicek and Catherine Smith (2001-12-01). [http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/spotlight/12012001/ The Use of Ensemble Forecasts to Produce Improved Medium Range (3–15&nbsp;days) Weather Forecasts.] Climate Diagnostics Center. Retrieved 2007-02-16.</ref>自20世纪90年代以来，模式集合预报的使用帮助确定了不确定性，并且预测时段比其他可能的方式都要长。<ref name="Toth">{{cite journal|last=Toth|first=Zoltan|author2=Kalnay, Eugenia|title=Ensemble Forecasting at NCEP and the Breeding Method |journal=Monthly Weather Review|date=December 1997|volume=125|issue=12|pages=3297–3319|doi=10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<3297:EFANAT>2.0.CO;2|issn=1520-0493|bibcode=1997MWRv..125.3297T|author-link2=Eugenia Kalnay|citeseerx=10.1.1.324.3941}}</ref><ref name="ECens">{{cite web|url=http://ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/guide/The_Ensemble_Prediction_System_EPS_1.html |title=The Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) |publisher=ECMWF |access-date=2011-01-05 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110125125209/http://ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/guide/The_Ensemble_Prediction_System_EPS_1.html |archive-date=25 January 2011 |url-status=dead }}</ref><ref name="RMS">{{cite journal|title=The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Methodology and validation|journal=Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society|date=January 1996|volume=122|issue=529|pages=73–119|author1=Molteni, F. |author2=Buizza, R. |author3=Palmer, T.N. |author4=Petroliagis, T. |doi=10.1002/qj.49712252905|bibcode=1996QJRMS.122...73M}}</ref>
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由于基于大气动力学的预报模式的输出结果需要近地面处的修正，因此20世纪70年代和20世纪80年代开发了单个预报位点的模式输出统计（MOS）。<ref name="MOS" /><ref name="L. Best, D. L. and S. P. Pryor 1983 1–90">{{cite book|title=Air Weather Service Model Output Statistics Systems|author1=L. Best, D. L.  |author2=S. P. Pryor |year=1983|pages=1–90|publisher=Air Force Global Weather Central}}</ref>尽管超级计算机的能力不断提升，数值天气模式的预报仅能延伸到未来两周左右，这是因为观测点的密度和质量以及被用来预测的偏微分方程的混沌本质都会引入每五天加倍的误差。<ref name="Cox">{{cite book|title=Storm Watchers|pages=[https://archive.org/details/stormwatcherstur00cox_df1/page/222 222–224]|year=2002|author=Cox, John D.|publisher=John Wiley & Sons, Inc.|isbn=978-0-471-38108-2|url=https://archive.org/details/stormwatcherstur00cox_df1/page/222}}</ref><ref name="Klaus">Weickmann, Klaus, Jeff Whitaker, Andres Roubicek and Catherine Smith (2001-12-01). [http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/spotlight/12012001/ The Use of Ensemble Forecasts to Produce Improved Medium Range (3–15&nbsp;days) Weather Forecasts.] Climate Diagnostics Center. Retrieved 2007-02-16.</ref>自20世纪90年代以来，模式集合预报的使用帮助确定了不确定性，并且预测时段比其他可能的方式都要长。<ref name="Toth">{{cite journal|last=Toth|first=Zoltan|author2=Kalnay, Eugenia|title=Ensemble Forecasting at NCEP and the Breeding Method |journal=Monthly Weather Review|date=December 1997|volume=125|issue=12|pages=3297–3319|doi=10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<3297:EFANAT>2.0.CO;2|issn=1520-0493|bibcode=1997MWRv..125.3297T|citeseerx=10.1.1.324.3941}}</ref><ref name="ECens">{{cite web|url=http://ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/guide/The_Ensemble_Prediction_System_EPS_1.html |title=The Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) |publisher=ECMWF |access-date=2011-01-05 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110125125209/http://ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/guide/The_Ensemble_Prediction_System_EPS_1.html |archive-date=25 January 2011 |url-status=dead }}</ref><ref name="RMS">{{cite journal|title=The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Methodology and validation|journal=Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society|date=January 1996|volume=122|issue=529|pages=73–119|author1=Molteni, F. |author2=Buizza, R. |author3=Palmer, T.N. |author4=Petroliagis, T. |doi=10.1002/qj.49712252905|bibcode=1996QJRMS.122...73M}}</ref>
    
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==应用 ==
 
==应用 ==
 
===气候模拟===
 
===气候模拟===
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1956年，诺曼·菲利普斯 Norman Phillips开发了一个真实描述对流层逐月和逐季节模式的数学模型。这是第一个成功的气候模式。<ref name="Phillips">{{cite journal | url=http://www.phy.pku.edu.cn/climate/class/cm2010/Phillips_QJRMS_1956.pdf | title=The general circulation of the atmosphere: a numerical experiment | journal=[[Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society]] | author=Norman A. Phillips | date=April 1956 | volume=82 | issue=352 | pages=123–154 | doi=10.1002/qj.49708235202 | bibcode=1956QJRMS..82..123P}}</ref><ref name="Cox210">{{cite book | title=Storm Watchers | author=John D. Cox | publisher=John Wiley & Sons, Inc. | page=[https://archive.org/details/stormwatcherstur00cox_df1/page/210 210] | year=2002 | isbn=978-0-471-38108-2 | url=https://archive.org/details/stormwatcherstur00cox_df1/page/210 }}</ref>几个小组随后开始开创大气循环模式。<ref name="Lynch Ch10"/>20世纪60年代，第一个耦合海洋和大气过程的循环气候模式在美国地球物理流体动力学实验室气候研究中心被开发出来，该中心是美国美国国家海洋和大气管理局气候研究中心的一个分部门。<ref>{{cite web | url=http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/breakthroughs/climate_model/welcome.html | title=The First Climate Model | author=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | author-link=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | date=22 May 2008 | access-date=8 January 2011}}</ref>到20世纪80年代早期，美国国家大气研究中心开发了社区大气模式(CAM) ，既可以单独运行，也可以作为社区气候系统模型的大气模块部分运行。最新的独立CAM(3.1版本)已于2006年2月1日发布。<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/atm-cam/download/|title=CAM 3.1 Download|website=www.cesm.ucar.edu|access-date=2019-06-25}}</ref><ref>{{cite web | url=http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/atm-cam/docs/description/description.pdf | title=Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 3.0) | author=William D. Collins | publisher=[[University Corporation for Atmospheric Research]] | date=June 2004 | access-date=3 January 2011 | display-authors=et al.}}</ref><ref>{{cite web | url=http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/atm-cam/ | title=CAM3.0 COMMUNITY ATMOSPHERE MODEL | publisher=[[University Corporation for Atmospheric Research]] | access-date=6 February 2018}}</ref>在1986年，人们开始投入初始化和模拟的土壤、植被类型，以实现更真实的预测。<ref>{{cite journal | url=http://www.geog.ucla.edu/~yxue/pdf/1996jgr.pdf | title=Impact of vegetation properties on U. S. summer weather prediction | journal=[[Journal of Geophysical Research]] | author1=Yongkang Xue | author2=Michael J. Fennessey | date=20 March 1996 | volume=101 | issue=D3 | page=7419 | access-date=6 January 2011 | bibcode=1996JGR...101.7419X | doi=10.1029/95JD02169 | url-status=dead | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100710080304/http://www.geog.ucla.edu/~yxue/pdf/1996jgr.pdf | archive-date=10 July 2010| citeseerx=10.1.1.453.551 }}</ref>耦合的海洋-大气气候模式，如哈德利气候预测与研究中心的 HadCM3模式，正被用作气候变化研究的输入。<ref name="Lynch Ch10">{{cite book | chapter-url=https://books.google.com/books?id=EV5bZqOO7kkC&pg=PA208 | title=The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction: Richardson's Dream | chapter=The ENIAC Integrations | author=Peter Lynch | publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]] | year=2006 | isbn=978-0-521-85729-1 | page=208 | access-date=6 February 2018}}</ref>
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1956年，诺曼·菲利普斯 Norman Phillips开发了一个真实描述对流层逐月和逐季节模式的数学模型。这是第一个成功的气候模式。<ref name="Phillips">{{cite journal | url=http://www.phy.pku.edu.cn/climate/class/cm2010/Phillips_QJRMS_1956.pdf | title=The general circulation of the atmosphere: a numerical experiment | journal=[[Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society]] | author=Norman A. Phillips | date=April 1956 | volume=82 | issue=352 | pages=123–154 | doi=10.1002/qj.49708235202 | bibcode=1956QJRMS..82..123P}}</ref><ref name="Cox210">{{cite book | title=Storm Watchers | author=John D. Cox | publisher=John Wiley & Sons, Inc. | page=[https://archive.org/details/stormwatcherstur00cox_df1/page/210 210] | year=2002 | isbn=978-0-471-38108-2 | url=https://archive.org/details/stormwatcherstur00cox_df1/page/210 }}</ref>几个小组随后开始开创大气循环模式。<ref name="Lynch Ch10"/>20世纪60年代，第一个耦合海洋和大气过程的循环气候模式在美国地球物理流体动力学实验室气候研究中心被开发出来，该中心是美国美国国家海洋和大气管理局气候研究中心的一个分部门。<ref>{{cite web | url=http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/breakthroughs/climate_model/welcome.html | title=The First Climate Model | author=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | date=22 May 2008 | access-date=8 January 2011}}</ref>到20世纪80年代早期，美国国家大气研究中心开发了社区大气模式(CAM) ，既可以单独运行，也可以作为社区气候系统模型的大气模块部分运行。最新的独立CAM(3.1版本)已于2006年2月1日发布。<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/atm-cam/download/|title=CAM 3.1 Download|website=www.cesm.ucar.edu|access-date=2019-06-25}}</ref><ref>{{cite web | url=http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/atm-cam/docs/description/description.pdf | title=Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 3.0) | author=William D. Collins | publisher=[[University Corporation for Atmospheric Research]] | date=June 2004 | access-date=3 January 2011 | display-authors=et al.}}</ref><ref>{{cite web | url=http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/atm-cam/ | title=CAM3.0 COMMUNITY ATMOSPHERE MODEL | publisher=[[University Corporation for Atmospheric Research]] | access-date=6 February 2018}}</ref>在1986年，人们开始投入初始化和模拟的土壤、植被类型，以实现更真实的预测。<ref>{{cite journal | url=http://www.geog.ucla.edu/~yxue/pdf/1996jgr.pdf | title=Impact of vegetation properties on U. S. summer weather prediction | journal=[[Journal of Geophysical Research]] | author1=Yongkang Xue | author2=Michael J. Fennessey | date=20 March 1996 | volume=101 | issue=D3 | page=7419 | access-date=6 January 2011 | bibcode=1996JGR...101.7419X | doi=10.1029/95JD02169 | url-status=dead | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100710080304/http://www.geog.ucla.edu/~yxue/pdf/1996jgr.pdf | archive-date=10 July 2010| citeseerx=10.1.1.453.551 }}</ref>耦合的海洋-大气气候模式，如哈德利气候预测与研究中心的 HadCM3模式，正被用作气候变化研究的输入。<ref name="Lynch Ch10">{{cite book | chapter-url=https://books.google.com/books?id=EV5bZqOO7kkC&pg=PA208 | title=The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction: Richardson's Dream | chapter=The ENIAC Integrations | author=Peter Lynch | publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]] | year=2006 | isbn=978-0-521-85729-1 | page=208 | access-date=6 February 2018}}</ref>
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'''可移动细网格模式 the Movable Fine-Mesh model'''在1978年开始运行，是第一个基于大气动力学的热带气旋预报模式。<ref name="Shuman W&F"/>尽管由于不断增强的计算机算力，持续改进的动力学模式指导成为可能，但是直到20世纪80年代，数值天气预报才显示出预报热带气旋路径的能力；直到20世纪90年代才持续地好于统计模型或简单的动力学模型。<ref>{{cite web | url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml | publisher=[[National Hurricane Center]] | date=20 April 2010 | access-date=2 January 2011 | author=James Franklin | title=National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification | author-link=James Franklin (meteorologist) | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110102062753/http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml | archive-date=2 January 2011 | url-status=live}}</ref>使用数值预报方法预测热带气旋强调也始终难度较高。直到2009年，动力学控制的方法仍不如统计方法效果好。<ref>{{cite journal | author1=Edward N. Rappaport | author2=James L. Franklin | author3=Lixion A. Avila | author4=Stephen R. Baig | author5=John L. Beven II | author6=Eric S. Blake | author7=Christopher A. Burr | author8=Jiann-Gwo Jiing | author9=Christopher A. Juckins | author10=Richard D. Knabb | author11=Christopher W. Landsea | author12=Michelle Mainelli | author13=Max Mayfield | author14=Colin J. McAdie | author15=Richard J. Pasch | author16=Christopher Sisko | author17=Stacy R. Stewart | author18=Ahsha N. Tribble | title=Advances and Challenges at the National Hurricane Center | journal=[[Weather and Forecasting]] | date=April 2009 | volume=24 | issue=2 | pages=395–419 | doi=10.1175/2008WAF2222128.1 | bibcode=2009WtFor..24..395R| citeseerx=10.1.1.207.4667 }}</ref>
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'''可移动细网格模式 the Movable Fine-Mesh model'''在1978年开始运行，是第一个基于大气动力学的热带气旋预报模式。<ref name="Shuman W&F"/>尽管由于不断增强的计算机算力，持续改进的动力学模式指导成为可能，但是直到20世纪80年代，数值天气预报才显示出预报热带气旋路径的能力；直到20世纪90年代才持续地好于统计模型或简单的动力学模型。<ref>{{cite web | url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml | publisher=[[National Hurricane Center]] | date=20 April 2010 | access-date=2 January 2011 | author=James Franklin | title=National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110102062753/http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml | archive-date=2 January 2011 | url-status=live}}</ref>使用数值预报方法预测热带气旋强调也始终难度较高。直到2009年，动力学控制的方法仍不如统计方法效果好。<ref>{{cite journal | author1=Edward N. Rappaport | author2=James L. Franklin | author3=Lixion A. Avila | author4=Stephen R. Baig | author5=John L. Beven II | author6=Eric S. Blake | author7=Christopher A. Burr | author8=Jiann-Gwo Jiing | author9=Christopher A. Juckins | author10=Richard D. Knabb | author11=Christopher W. Landsea | author12=Michelle Mainelli | author13=Max Mayfield | author14=Colin J. McAdie | author15=Richard J. Pasch | author16=Christopher Sisko | author17=Stacy R. Stewart | author18=Ahsha N. Tribble | title=Advances and Challenges at the National Hurricane Center | journal=[[Weather and Forecasting]] | date=April 2009 | volume=24 | issue=2 | pages=395–419 | doi=10.1175/2008WAF2222128.1 | bibcode=2009WtFor..24..395R| citeseerx=10.1.1.207.4667 }}</ref>
     
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