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Moved page from wikipedia:en:Accelerating change (history)
此词条暂由彩云小译翻译，翻译字数共2360，未经人工整理和审校，带来阅读不便，请见谅。
{{Short description|Perceived increase in the rate of technological change throughout history}}
{{more footnotes|date=September 2020}}
{{Futures studies}}
In [[futures studies]] and the [[history of technology]], '''accelerating change''' is a perceived increase in the rate of [[technological change]] throughout history, which may suggest faster and more profound change in the future and may or may not be accompanied by equally profound social and cultural change.
In futures studies and the history of technology, accelerating change is a perceived increase in the rate of technological change throughout history, which may suggest faster and more profound change in the future and may or may not be accompanied by equally profound social and cultural change.
在未来研究和技术历史中，加速变革是指人们认为整个历史上技术变革速度的加快，这可能意味着未来将发生更快和更深刻的变革，而且可能伴随也可能不伴随同样深刻的社会和文化变革。
== Early observations ==
In 1910 during the town planning conference of London [[Daniel Burnham]] noted, "But it is not merely in the number of facts or sorts of knowledge that progress lies: it is still more in the geometric ratio of sophistication, in the [[geometric growth|geometric widening]] of the sphere of knowledge, which every year is taking in a larger percentage of people as time goes on."<ref name="Transactions">{{Cite book|url=https://archive.org/details/transactions00town|title=Transactions|first1=England)|last1=Town Planning Conference (1910 : London|last2=Royal Institute of British Architects|date=8 July 2018|publisher=London : Royal Institute of British Architects|via=Internet Archive}}</ref> And later on, "It is the argument with which I began, that a mighty change having come about in fifty years, and our pace of development having immensely accelerated, our sons and grandsons are going to demand and get results that would stagger us."<ref name="Transactions"/>
In 1910 during the town planning conference of London Daniel Burnham noted, "But it is not merely in the number of facts or sorts of knowledge that progress lies: it is still more in the geometric ratio of sophistication, in the geometric widening of the sphere of knowledge, which every year is taking in a larger percentage of people as time goes on." And later on, "It is the argument with which I began, that a mighty change having come about in fifty years, and our pace of development having immensely accelerated, our sons and grandsons are going to demand and get results that would stagger us."
= = 早期观察 = = 1910年在伦敦城市规划会议期间，丹尼尔 · 伯纳姆指出:”但是，进步不仅仅在于事实或知识的数量: 更多的是在于复杂程度的几何比，在于知识领域的几何扩展，随着时间的推移，这一领域每年吸引的人口比例越来越大后来，“我开始的论点是，50年来发生了巨大的变化，我们的发展步伐已经大大加快，我们的子孙将要求并得到令我们震惊的结果。”
In 1938, [[Buckminster Fuller]] introduced the word [[ephemeralization]] to describe the trends of "doing more with less" in chemistry, health and other areas of [[industrial development]].<ref>[[Buckminster Fuller|R. Buckminster Fuller]], ''[[Nine Chains to the Moon]]'', [[Southern Illinois University Press]] [1938] 1963 pp. 276–79.</ref> In 1946, Fuller published a chart of the discoveries of the chemical elements over time to highlight the development of accelerating acceleration in human knowledge acquisition.<ref>[[Buckminster Fuller|R. Buckminster Fuller]], ''[[Synergetics (Fuller)]]'', http://www.rwgrayprojects.com/synergetics/s04/figs/f1903.html</ref>
In 1938, Buckminster Fuller introduced the word ephemeralization to describe the trends of "doing more with less" in chemistry, health and other areas of industrial development.R. Buckminster Fuller, Nine Chains to the Moon, Southern Illinois University Press [1938] 1963 pp. 276–79. In 1946, Fuller published a chart of the discoveries of the chemical elements over time to highlight the development of accelerating acceleration in human knowledge acquisition.R. Buckminster Fuller, Synergetics (Fuller), http://www.rwgrayprojects.com/synergetics/s04/figs/f1903.html
1938年，巴克敏斯特·福乐引入了商品陈旧加速化一词来描述化学、健康和其他工业发展领域中“少花钱多办事”的趋势。巴克敏斯特·福乐，《九条通往月球的链条》 ，南伊利诺伊斯大学出版社[1938]1963页。276–79.1946年，富勒发表了一张化学元素随时间演变的发现图表，以强调加速人类知识获取的发展。巴克敏斯特·福乐，协同学(Fuller) ， http://www.rwgrayprojects.com/Synergetics/s04/figs/f1903.html
In 1958, [[Stanislaw Ulam]] wrote in reference to a conversation with [[John von Neumann]]: {{quote|One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.<ref name="mathematical">{{cite journal|url=https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-5-JeCa2Z7hbWcxTGsyU09HSTg/edit?pli=1 | last=Ulam|first=Stanislaw |title=Tribute to John von Neumann|publisher=Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society|volume= 64, nr 3, part 2|date=May 1958|page=5}}</ref>}}
In 1958, Stanislaw Ulam wrote in reference to a conversation with John von Neumann:
1958年，Stanislaw Ulam 在与约翰·冯·诺伊曼的一次谈话中写道:
==Moravec's ''Mind Children''==
In a series of published articles from 1974–1979, and then in his 1988 book ''Mind Children'', computer scientist and futurist [[Hans Moravec]] generalizes [[Moore's law]] to make predictions about the future of artificial life. Moore's law describes an [[exponential growth]] pattern in the complexity of integrated semiconductor circuits. Moravec extends this to include technologies from long before the integrated circuit to future forms of technology. Moravec outlines a timeline and a scenario<ref>{{cite journal| url=http://www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm| journal=Journal of Evolution and Technology| date=1998| volume=1| title=When will computer hardware match the human brain?| first=Hans| last=Moravec| access-date=2006-06-23| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060615031852/http://transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm| archive-date=15 June 2006| url-status=dead}}</ref><ref>{{cite web| url=http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/general.articles/1993/Robot93.html| title= The Age of Robots|date=June 1993| first=Hans| last=Moravec| access-date=2006-06-23| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20060615055406/http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/general.articles/1993/Robot93.html| archive-date= 15 June 2006 | url-status= live}}</ref> in which robots will evolve into a new series of artificial species, starting around 2030–2040.<ref>{{cite web| url=http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/robot.papers/2004/Predictions.html| title=Robot Predictions Evolution| first=Hans| last=Moravec|date=April 2004| access-date=2006-06-23| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20060616045535/http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/robot.papers/2004/Predictions.html| archive-date= 16 June 2006 | url-status= live}}</ref>
In ''Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind'', published in 1998, Moravec further considers the implications of evolving [[robot intelligence]], generalizing [[Moore's Law]] to technologies predating the [[integrated circuit]], and also plotting the exponentially increasing computational power of the brains of animals in evolutionary history. Extrapolating these trends, he speculates about a coming "mind fire" of rapidly expanding [[superintelligence]] similar to the [[intelligence explosion|explosion of intelligence]] predicted by Vinge.
In a series of published articles from 1974–1979, and then in his 1988 book Mind Children, computer scientist and futurist Hans Moravec generalizes Moore's law to make predictions about the future of artificial life. Moore's law describes an exponential growth pattern in the complexity of integrated semiconductor circuits. Moravec extends this to include technologies from long before the integrated circuit to future forms of technology. Moravec outlines a timeline and a scenario in which robots will evolve into a new series of artificial species, starting around 2030–2040.
In Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind, published in 1998, Moravec further considers the implications of evolving robot intelligence, generalizing Moore's Law to technologies predating the integrated circuit, and also plotting the exponentially increasing computational power of the brains of animals in evolutionary history. Extrapolating these trends, he speculates about a coming "mind fire" of rapidly expanding superintelligence similar to the explosion of intelligence predicted by Vinge.
计算机科学家和未来学家汉斯 · 莫拉维克在他1974-1979年发表的一系列文章中，以及在他1988年出版的《思想的孩子》一书中，概括了摩尔定律，对人工生命的未来作出了预测。摩尔定律描述了集成半导体电路复杂性的指数增长模式。莫拉维克将其扩展到包括从集成电路之前很久的技术到未来的技术形式。莫拉维克概述了一个时间表和一个场景，其中机器人将进化成一系列新的人工物种，大约从2030-2040年开始。在1998年出版的《机器人: 从纯粹的机器到超验的思维》一书中，莫拉维克进一步思考了进化中的机器人智能的含义，将摩尔定律推广到比集成电路更早的技术中，并绘制了在进化史上动物大脑的指数级增长的计算能力。通过推断这些趋势，他推测出一种快速扩张的超级智能的“心灵之火”即将到来，类似于 Vinge 预测的智能爆炸。
== James Burke's ''Connections'' ==
{{Main|Connections (British documentary)}}
{{unreferenced section|date=September 2020}}
In his TV series ''[[Connections (British documentary)|Connections]]'' (1978)—and sequels ''Connections²'' (1994) and ''Connections³'' (1997)—[[James Burke (science historian)|James Burke]] explores an "Alternative View of Change" (the subtitle of the series) that rejects the conventional linear and teleological view of historical progress. Burke contends that one cannot consider the development of any particular piece of the modern world in isolation. Rather, the entire gestalt of the modern world is the result of a web of interconnected events, each one consisting of a person or group acting for reasons of their own motivations (e.g., profit, curiosity, religious) with no concept of the final, modern result to which the actions of either them or their contemporaries would lead. The interplay of the results of these isolated events is what drives history and innovation, and is also the main focus of the series and its sequels.
In his TV series Connections (1978)—and sequels Connections² (1994) and Connections³ (1997)—James Burke explores an "Alternative View of Change" (the subtitle of the series) that rejects the conventional linear and teleological view of historical progress. Burke contends that one cannot consider the development of any particular piece of the modern world in isolation. Rather, the entire gestalt of the modern world is the result of a web of interconnected events, each one consisting of a person or group acting for reasons of their own motivations (e.g., profit, curiosity, religious) with no concept of the final, modern result to which the actions of either them or their contemporaries would lead. The interplay of the results of these isolated events is what drives history and innovation, and is also the main focus of the series and its sequels.
詹姆斯 · 伯克的《关系》在他的电视连续剧《关系》(1978)以及续集《关系》(1994)和《关系》(1997)中探索了一种“另类变革观”(该剧的副标题) ，该观点拒绝了传统的线性和目的论的历史进步观点。伯克认为，人们不能孤立地考虑现代世界任何特定部分的发展。相反，现代世界的整个形态是一个相互关联的事件网络的结果，每个事件都是由一个人或一个团体出于自己的动机(例如，利益、好奇心、宗教)而行动，对他们或他们同时代人的行动将导致的最终现代结果没有概念。这些孤立事件的结果之间的相互作用是推动历史和创新的动力，也是这一系列及其续集的主要焦点。
Burke also explores three corollaries to his initial thesis. The first is that, if history is driven by individuals who act only on what they know at the time, and not because of any idea as to where their actions will eventually lead, then predicting the future course of technological progress is merely conjecture. Therefore, if we are astonished by the connections Burke is able to weave among past events, then we will be equally surprised to what the events of today eventually will lead, especially events we weren't even aware of at the time.
Burke also explores three corollaries to his initial thesis. The first is that, if history is driven by individuals who act only on what they know at the time, and not because of any idea as to where their actions will eventually lead, then predicting the future course of technological progress is merely conjecture. Therefore, if we are astonished by the connections Burke is able to weave among past events, then we will be equally surprised to what the events of today eventually will lead, especially events we weren't even aware of at the time.
伯克还探讨了他的初始论点的三个推论。首先，如果历史是由个人驱动的，他们只根据当时所知的行动，而不是因为他们的行动最终会导向何方，那么预测未来技术进步的进程只是猜测。因此，如果我们对伯克能够在过去的事件之间编织联系感到惊讶，那么我们也会同样惊讶于今天的事件最终会导致什么，特别是那些我们当时甚至不知道的事件。
The second and third corollaries are explored most in the introductory and concluding episodes, and they represent the downside of an interconnected history. If history progresses because of the synergistic interaction of past events and innovations, then as history does progress, the number of these events and innovations increases. This increase in possible connections causes the process of innovation to not only continue, but to accelerate. Burke poses the question of what happens when this rate of innovation, or more importantly change itself, becomes too much for the average person to handle, and what this means for individual power, liberty, and privacy.
The second and third corollaries are explored most in the introductory and concluding episodes, and they represent the downside of an interconnected history. If history progresses because of the synergistic interaction of past events and innovations, then as history does progress, the number of these events and innovations increases. This increase in possible connections causes the process of innovation to not only continue, but to accelerate. Burke poses the question of what happens when this rate of innovation, or more importantly change itself, becomes too much for the average person to handle, and what this means for individual power, liberty, and privacy.
第二个和第三个推论在导言和结尾部分探讨得最多，它们代表了一段相互关联的历史的不利方面。如果历史因为过去的事件和创新的协同作用而发展，那么随着历史的发展，这些事件和创新的数量会增加。这种可能联系的增加不仅使创新过程继续下去，而且使其加速。伯克提出了一个问题，当这种创新的速度，或者更重要的是改变自己，变得对普通人来说太难以应付时会发生什么，这对个人权力、自由和隐私意味着什么。
== Gerald Hawkins' ''Mindsteps'' ==
== Gerald Hawkins' Mindsteps ==
= = 杰拉尔德 · 霍金斯思考步骤 = =
In his book "Mindsteps to the Cosmos" (HarperCollins, August 1983), [[Gerald Hawkins|Gerald S. Hawkins]] elucidated his notion of 'mindsteps', dramatic and irreversible changes to [[paradigms]] or world views. He identified five distinct mindsteps in human history, and the technology that accompanied these "new world views": the invention of imagery, writing, mathematics, printing, the telescope, rocket, radio, TV, computer... "Each one takes the collective mind closer to reality, one stage further along in its understanding of the relation of humans to the cosmos." He noted: "The waiting period between the mindsteps is getting shorter. One can't help noticing the acceleration." Hawkins' empirical 'mindstep equation' quantified this, and gave dates for future mindsteps. The date of the next mindstep (5; the series begins at 0) is given as 2021, with two further, successively closer mindsteps in 2045 and 2051, until the limit of the series in 2053. His speculations ventured beyond the technological:
In his book "Mindsteps to the Cosmos" (HarperCollins, August 1983), Gerald S. Hawkins elucidated his notion of 'mindsteps', dramatic and irreversible changes to paradigms or world views. He identified five distinct mindsteps in human history, and the technology that accompanied these "new world views": the invention of imagery, writing, mathematics, printing, the telescope, rocket, radio, TV, computer... "Each one takes the collective mind closer to reality, one stage further along in its understanding of the relation of humans to the cosmos." He noted: "The waiting period between the mindsteps is getting shorter. One can't help noticing the acceleration." Hawkins' empirical 'mindstep equation' quantified this, and gave dates for future mindsteps. The date of the next mindstep (5; the series begins at 0) is given as 2021, with two further, successively closer mindsteps in 2045 and 2051, until the limit of the series in 2053. His speculations ventured beyond the technological:
杰拉尔德 · s · 霍金斯(Gerald s. Hawkins)在他的著作《迈向宇宙》(Mindsteps to the Cosmos，HarperCollins，1983年8月)中阐明了他的“迈向宇宙”(Mindsteps)概念，即范式或世界观发生戏剧性且不可逆转的变化。他确定了人类历史上五个不同的思维步骤，以及伴随这些“新世界观”而来的技术: 图像、文字、数学、印刷术、望远镜、火箭、无线电、电视、计算机... ... “每一个都使集体思维更接近现实，在理解人类与宇宙的关系上又前进了一步。”他指出: “思维步骤之间的等待时间越来越短。人们无法不注意到它的加速度。”霍金斯的经验性思维步骤方程量化了这一点，并给出了未来思维步骤的日期。下一个思维步骤的日期(5; 系列从0开始)被设定为2021年，在2045年和2051年有两个更进一步、更接近思维步骤，直到2053年系列的极限。他的思考超越了技术层面:
{{quote|The mindsteps... appear to have certain things in common - a new and unfolding human perspective, related inventions in the area of memes and communications, and a long formulative waiting period before the next mindstep comes along. None of the mindsteps can be said to have been truly anticipated, and most were resisted at the early stages. In looking to the future we may equally be caught unawares. We may have to grapple with the presently inconceivable, with mind-stretching discoveries and concepts.}}
[[Image:PPTMASSuseInventionsLogPRINT.jpg|thumb|right|200px|Mass use of inventions: Years until use by a quarter of US population]]
thumb|right|200px|Mass use of inventions: Years until use by a quarter of US population
大量的发明使用: 直到四分之一的美国人使用为止
==Vinge's exponentially accelerating change==
The mathematician [[Vernor Vinge]] popularized his ideas about exponentially accelerating technological change in the science fiction novel ''[[Marooned in Realtime]]'' (1986), set in a world of rapidly accelerating progress leading to the emergence of more and more sophisticated technologies separated by shorter and shorter time intervals, until a point beyond human comprehension is reached. His subsequent [[Hugo award]]-winning novel ''[[A Fire Upon the Deep]]'' (1992) starts with an imaginative description of the evolution of a [[superintelligence]] passing through exponentially accelerating developmental stages ending in a [[Transcendence (religion)|transcendent]], almost [[omnipotent]] power unfathomable by mere humans. His already mentioned influential 1993 paper on the [[technological singularity]] compactly summarizes the basic ideas.
The mathematician Vernor Vinge popularized his ideas about exponentially accelerating technological change in the science fiction novel Marooned in Realtime (1986), set in a world of rapidly accelerating progress leading to the emergence of more and more sophisticated technologies separated by shorter and shorter time intervals, until a point beyond human comprehension is reached. His subsequent Hugo award-winning novel A Fire Upon the Deep (1992) starts with an imaginative description of the evolution of a superintelligence passing through exponentially accelerating developmental stages ending in a transcendent, almost omnipotent power unfathomable by mere humans. His already mentioned influential 1993 paper on the technological singularity compactly summarizes the basic ideas.
文奇的指数加速变化数学家文奇在科幻小说《实时放逐》(1986)中推广了他关于指数加速技术变化的想法，故事发生在一个快速加速发展的世界，导致出现越来越多的复杂技术，间隔时间越来越短，直到达到一个超出人类理解的点。他随后的雨果获奖小说《深渊之火》(1992)以一个富有想象力的描述开始，描述了超级智能经过指数级加速发展阶段的进化，最终以一种超然的、几乎无所不能的、仅仅是人类无法理解的力量结束。他在1993年发表的一篇有影响力的论文《技术奇异点简明扼要地总结了基本思想。
==Kurzweil's ''The Law of Accelerating Returns''{{anchor|The Law of Accelerating Returns|Law of Accelerating Returns}}==
==Kurzweil's The Law of Accelerating Returns==
= = 库兹韦尔加速回报定律 = =
In his 1999 book ''[[The Age of Spiritual Machines]]'', [[Ray Kurzweil]] proposed "The Law of Accelerating Returns", according to which the rate of change in a wide variety of evolutionary systems (including but not limited to the growth of technologies) tends to increase exponentially.<ref>Ray Kurzweil, ''The Age of Spiritual Machines'', Viking, 1999, [https://books.google.com/books?id=ldAGcyh0bkUC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA630#v=onepage&q&f=false p. 30] and [https://books.google.com/books?id=ldAGcyh0bkUC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA632#v=onepage&q&f=false p. 32]</ref> He gave further focus to this issue in a 2001 essay entitled "The Law of Accelerating Returns".<ref>[http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns ''The Law of Accelerating Returns'']. [[Ray Kurzweil]], March 7, 2001.</ref> In it, Kurzweil, after Moravec, argued for extending Moore's Law to describe [[exponential growth]] of diverse forms of [[technology|technological]] progress. Whenever a technology approaches some kind of a barrier, according to Kurzweil, a new technology will be invented to allow us to cross that barrier. He cites numerous past examples of this to substantiate his assertions. He predicts that such [[paradigm shift]]s have and will continue to become increasingly common, leading to "technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history". He believes the Law of Accelerating Returns implies that a [[technological singularity]] will occur before the end of the 21st century, around 2045. The essay begins:
In his 1999 book The Age of Spiritual Machines, Ray Kurzweil proposed "The Law of Accelerating Returns", according to which the rate of change in a wide variety of evolutionary systems (including but not limited to the growth of technologies) tends to increase exponentially.Ray Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines, Viking, 1999, p. 30 and p. 32 He gave further focus to this issue in a 2001 essay entitled "The Law of Accelerating Returns".The Law of Accelerating Returns. Ray Kurzweil, March 7, 2001. In it, Kurzweil, after Moravec, argued for extending Moore's Law to describe exponential growth of diverse forms of technological progress. Whenever a technology approaches some kind of a barrier, according to Kurzweil, a new technology will be invented to allow us to cross that barrier. He cites numerous past examples of this to substantiate his assertions. He predicts that such paradigm shifts have and will continue to become increasingly common, leading to "technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history". He believes the Law of Accelerating Returns implies that a technological singularity will occur before the end of the 21st century, around 2045. The essay begins:
在1999年出版的《精神机器时代》(The Age of Spiritual Machines)一书中，雷•库兹韦尔(Ray Kurzweil)提出了“加速回报法则”(The Law of Accelerating Returns) ，根据这一法则，各种进化系统(包括但不限于技术的发展)中的变化率往往呈指数增长。Ray Kurzweil，The Age of Spiritual Machines，Viking，1999，p. 30 and p. 32 He gave further focus to this issue in a 2001“ The Law of Accelerating Returns”。加速回报定律。雷 · 库兹韦尔，2001年3月7日。在这篇文章中，继莫拉维克之后，库兹韦尔主张扩展摩尔定律来描述技术进步的各种形式的指数增长。按照库兹韦尔的说法，每当一项技术接近某种障碍时，就会有一项新技术被发明出来，使我们能够跨越这个障碍。他引用了大量过去的例子来证明他的观点。他预测，这种范式转变已经并将继续变得越来越普遍，导致“技术变革如此迅速和深刻，代表着人类历史结构的断裂”。他相信加速回报定律意味着技术奇异点将在21世纪末，也就是2045年左右出现。文章开头写道:
{{quote|An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense 'intuitive linear' view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century—it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). The 'returns,' such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There's even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to the Singularity—technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.}}
{{Multiple image
| direction= vertical
| image1 = PPTMooresLawai.jpg
| caption1 = Moore's Law expanded to other technologies.
| image2 = Moore's_Law_over_120_Years.png
| caption2 = An updated version of Moore's Law over 120 Years (based on [[Ray Kurzweil|Kurzweil's]] [[c:File:PPTMooresLawai.jpg|graph]]). The 7 most recent data points are all [[Nvidia GPUs]].
}}
The Law of Accelerating Returns has in many ways altered public perception of [[Moore's law]]. {{citation needed|date=May 2015}} It is a common (but mistaken) belief that Moore's law makes predictions regarding all forms of technology,{{citation needed|date=May 2013}} when really it only concerns semiconductor circuits. Many [[futurist]]s still use the term "Moore's law" to describe ideas like those put forth by Moravec, Kurzweil and others.
The Law of Accelerating Returns has in many ways altered public perception of Moore's law. It is a common (but mistaken) belief that Moore's law makes predictions regarding all forms of technology, when really it only concerns semiconductor circuits. Many futurists still use the term "Moore's law" to describe ideas like those put forth by Moravec, Kurzweil and others.
加速回报定律在许多方面改变了公众对摩尔定律的看法。人们普遍(但错误地)认为，摩尔定律对所有形式的技术都做出了预测，而实际上它只涉及到半导体电路。许多未来学家仍然使用“摩尔定律”来描述像莫拉维克、库兹韦尔和其他人提出的想法。
According to Kurzweil, since the beginning of [[evolution]], more complex life forms have been evolving exponentially faster, with shorter and shorter intervals between the emergence of radically new life forms, such as human beings, who have the capacity to engineer (i.e. intentionally design with efficiency) a new trait which replaces relatively blind evolutionary mechanisms of selection for efficiency. By extension, the rate of technical progress amongst humans has also been exponentially increasing, as we discover more effective ways to do things, we also discover more effective ways to learn, i.e. [[language]], numbers, written language, [[philosophy]], [[scientific method]], instruments of observation, tallying devices, mechanical calculators, computers, each of these major advances in our ability to account for information occur increasingly close together. Already within the past sixty years, life in the industrialized world has changed almost beyond recognition except for living memories from the first half of the 20th century. This pattern will culminate in unimaginable technological progress in the 21st century, leading to a singularity. Kurzweil elaborates on his views in his books ''The Age of Spiritual Machines'' and ''[[The Singularity Is Near]]''.
According to Kurzweil, since the beginning of evolution, more complex life forms have been evolving exponentially faster, with shorter and shorter intervals between the emergence of radically new life forms, such as human beings, who have the capacity to engineer (i.e. intentionally design with efficiency) a new trait which replaces relatively blind evolutionary mechanisms of selection for efficiency. By extension, the rate of technical progress amongst humans has also been exponentially increasing, as we discover more effective ways to do things, we also discover more effective ways to learn, i.e. language, numbers, written language, philosophy, scientific method, instruments of observation, tallying devices, mechanical calculators, computers, each of these major advances in our ability to account for information occur increasingly close together. Already within the past sixty years, life in the industrialized world has changed almost beyond recognition except for living memories from the first half of the 20th century. This pattern will culminate in unimaginable technological progress in the 21st century, leading to a singularity. Kurzweil elaborates on his views in his books The Age of Spiritual Machines and The Singularity Is Near.
据库兹韦尔说，自从进化开始以来，更复杂的生命形式以指数级的速度进化，在出现全新的生命形式之间的间隔时间越来越短，例如人类，他们有能力进行工程(即:。有意识地高效率地设计)一个新的特点，取代了相对盲目的进化机制的选择效率。推而广之，人类技术进步的速度也呈指数级增长，随着我们发现了更有效的做事方式，我们也发现了更有效的学习方式，即。语言，数字，书面语言，哲学，科学方法，观察工具，计数装置，机械计算器，计算机，我们记录信息能力的每一个重大进步，都越来越紧密地发生在一起。在过去的60年里，工业化世界的生活已经发生了翻天覆地的变化，除了20世纪上半叶的记忆。这种模式将在21世纪以难以想象的技术进步达到顶峰，导致一个奇点。库兹韦尔在他的著作《精神机器时代》和《奇点迫近阐述了他的观点。
==Limits of accelerating change==
Applying a scientific approach, we will notice in natural science that it is typical that processes characterized by exponential acceleration in their initial stages go into the saturation phase. This clearly makes it possible to realize that if an increase with acceleration is observed over a certain period of time, this does not mean an endless continuation of this process. On the contrary, in many cases this means an early exit to the plateau of speed. The processes occurring in natural science allow us to suggest that the observed picture of accelerating scientific and technological progress, after some time (in physical processes, as a rule, is short) will be replaced by a slowdown and a complete stop? Despite the possible termination / attenuation of the acceleration of the progress of science and technology in the foreseeable future, progress itself, and as a result, social transformations, will not stop or even slow down - it will continue with the achieved (possibly huge) speed, which has become constant.<ref>[https://philosophyjournal.spbu.ru/article/view/3182/2943 Shestakova I.' To the Question of the Limits of Progress: Is a Singularity Possible?.]</ref>
Applying a scientific approach, we will notice in natural science that it is typical that processes characterized by exponential acceleration in their initial stages go into the saturation phase. This clearly makes it possible to realize that if an increase with acceleration is observed over a certain period of time, this does not mean an endless continuation of this process. On the contrary, in many cases this means an early exit to the plateau of speed. The processes occurring in natural science allow us to suggest that the observed picture of accelerating scientific and technological progress, after some time (in physical processes, as a rule, is short) will be replaced by a slowdown and a complete stop? Despite the possible termination / attenuation of the acceleration of the progress of science and technology in the foreseeable future, progress itself, and as a result, social transformations, will not stop or even slow down - it will continue with the achieved (possibly huge) speed, which has become constant.Shestakova I.' To the Question of the Limits of Progress: Is a Singularity Possible?.
加速变化的极限运用科学的方法，我们将注意到在自然科学中，拥有属性指数加速在其初始阶段进入饱和阶段是很典型的。这显然使我们有可能认识到，如果在一段时间内观察到加速度的增加，这并不意味着这一过程无休止地继续下去。相反，在许多情况下，这意味着提前退出速度高原。自然科学中发生的过程使我们可以认为，观察到的加速科学和技术进步的图景，在一段时间之后(在物理过程中，通常是短暂的) ，将被减速和完全停止所取代？尽管在可预见的将来，科学和技术的加速进步可能会终止/减缓，但是进步本身，以及因此而产生的社会变革，将不会停止，甚至不会减缓——它将以已经达到的(可能是巨大的)速度继续下去，而这种速度已经不变。谢斯塔科娃一世关于进步的局限性的问题: 奇点是可能的吗。
Accelerating change may not be restricted to the [[Anthropocene]] Epoch,<ref>{{Cite journal|title=The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration|journal=The Anthropocene Review|volume=2|pages=81–98|doi=10.1177/2053019614564785|year = 2015|last1 = Steffen|first1 = Will|last2=Broadgate|first2=Wendy|last3=Deutsch|first3=Lisa|last4=Gaffney|first4=Owen|last5=Ludwig|first5=Cornelia|hdl=1885/66463|s2cid=131524600|url=https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/66463/8/01_Steffen_GREAT%20ACCELERATION_2015.pdf|hdl-access=free}}</ref> but a general and predictable developmental feature of the universe.<ref name="auto">{{Cite book| publisher = Government Printing Office, NASA SP-2009-4802| pages = 201–295| editor1 = S. J. Dick| editor2 = Mark L. Lupisella| last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = Cosmos and Culture: Cultural Evolution in a Cosmic Context| chapter = Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture.| location = Washington D.C.| date = 2009| chapter-url = http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartEvoDevoUniv2008.pdf| access-date = 2017-03-15| archive-date = 2017-01-24| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20170124023933/http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartEvoDevoUniv2008.pdf| url-status = dead}}</ref> The physical processes that generate an acceleration such as Moore's law are positive feedback loops giving rise to exponential or superexponential technological change.<ref>{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.07.006| issn = 0040-1625| volume = 78| issue = 8| pages = 1356–1364| last1 = Nagy| first1 = Béla| last2 = Farmer| first2 = J. Doyne| last3 = Trancik| first3 = Jessika E.| last4 = Gonzales| first4 = John Paul| title = Superexponential Long-Term Trends in Information Technology| journal = Technological Forecasting and Social Change| access-date = 2013-07-09| date = October 2011| url = http://www.santafe.edu/media/workingpapers/10-11-030.pdf| hdl = 1721.1/105411| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20140410202145/http://www.santafe.edu/media/workingpapers/10-11-030.pdf| archive-date = 2014-04-10| url-status = dead| hdl-access = free}}</ref> These dynamics lead to increasingly efficient and dense configurations of Space, Time, Energy, and Matter (STEM efficiency and density, or STEM "compression").<ref name="auto1">{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.actaastro.2011.11.006| issn = 0094-5765| volume = 78| pages = 55–68| last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = The Transcension Hypothesis: Sufficiently advanced civilizations invariably leave our universe, and implications for METI and SETI| journal = Acta Astronautica| url = http://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html| bibcode = 2012AcAau..78...55S| year = 2012| citeseerx = 10.1.1.695.2737| access-date = 2014-01-04| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20130922181839/http://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html| archive-date = 2013-09-22| url-status = dead}}</ref> At the physical limit, this developmental process of accelerating change leads to black hole density organizations, a conclusion also reached by studies of the ultimate physical limits of computation in the universe.<ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 406| issue = 6799| pages = 1047–1054| last = Lloyd| first = S.| title = Ultimate Physical Limits to Computation| journal = Nature| date = 2000| arxiv = quant-ph/9908043| bibcode = 2000Natur.406.1047L| doi = 10.1038/35023282| pmid = 10984064| s2cid = 75923}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Penguin Books| last = Kurzweil| first = R.| title = The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology| url = https://archive.org/details/singularityisnea00kurz_214| url-access = limited| date = 2005| page=[https://archive.org/details/singularityisnea00kurz_214/page/n361 362]}}</ref>
Accelerating change may not be restricted to the Anthropocene Epoch, but a general and predictable developmental feature of the universe. The physical processes that generate an acceleration such as Moore's law are positive feedback loops giving rise to exponential or superexponential technological change. These dynamics lead to increasingly efficient and dense configurations of Space, Time, Energy, and Matter (STEM efficiency and density, or STEM "compression"). At the physical limit, this developmental process of accelerating change leads to black hole density organizations, a conclusion also reached by studies of the ultimate physical limits of computation in the universe.
加速变化可能不局限于人类世时代，而是宇宙一个普遍的、可预测的发展特征。产生加速度的物理过程，如摩尔定律，是正反馈循环，引起指数或超指数的技术变革。这些动态导致了空间、时间、能量和物质(STEM 效率和密度，或 STEM“压缩”)的日益高效和密集的配置。在物理极限下，这种加速变化的发展过程导致了黑洞密度的组织，这也是对宇宙中计算的终极物理极限的研究得出的结论。
Applying this vision to the [[search for extraterrestrial intelligence]] leads to the idea that advanced intelligent life reconfigures itself into a black hole. Such advanced life forms would be interested in inner space, rather than outer space and interstellar expansion.<ref>{{Cite journal| issn = 0007-084X| volume = 61| issue = 7| pages = 246–254| last = Ćirković| first = Milan M.| title = Against the Empire| journal = Journal of the British Interplanetary Society| date = 2008| arxiv = 0805.1821| bibcode = 2008JBIS...61..246C}}</ref> They would thus in some way transcend reality, not be observable and it would be a solution to [[Fermi paradox|Fermi's paradox]] called the "transcension hypothesis".<ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer International Publishing| isbn = 978-3-319-13235-8 | last = Webb| first = Stephen| title = If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... Where Is Everybody?| location = Cham| series = Science and Fiction| date = 2015| pages = 203–206}}</ref><ref name="auto"/><ref name="auto1"/> Another solution is that the black holes we observe could actually be interpreted as intelligent super-civilizations feeding on stars, or "stellivores".<ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer International Publishing| isbn = 978-3-319-13235-8 | last = Webb| first = Stephen| title = If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... Where Is Everybody?| location = Cham| series = Science and Fiction| date = 2015| pages = 196–200}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.actaastro.2016.06.038| issn = 0094-5765| volume = 128| pages = 251–256| last = Vidal| first = C.| title = Stellivore extraterrestrials? Binary stars as living systems| journal = Acta Astronautica| date = 2016| bibcode = 2016AcAau.128..251V| url = https://zenodo.org/record/164853}}</ref>
This dynamics of evolution and development is an invitation to study the universe itself as evolving, developing.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.evodevouniverse.com|title=Evo Devo Universe Community|access-date=2018-04-25}}</ref> If the universe is a kind of superorganism, it may possibly tend to reproduce, naturally<ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 9| issue = 1| pages = 173–191| last = Smolin| first = Lee| title = Did the universe evolve?| journal = Classical and Quantum Gravity| date = 1992| bibcode = 1992CQGra...9..173S| doi = 10.1088/0264-9381/9/1/016}}</ref> or artificially, with intelligent life playing a role.<ref>{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1007/s10699-010-9182-y| issn = 1233-1821| volume = 15| issue = 4| pages = 369–373| last = Crane| first = Louis| title = Possible Implications of the Quantum Theory of Gravity: An Introduction to the Meduso-Anthropic Principle| journal = Foundations of Science| date = 2010| arxiv = hep-th/9402104| s2cid = 118422569}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 36| issue = 3| pages = 193–203| last = Harrison| first = E. R.| title = The Natural Selection of Universes Containing Intelligent Life| journal = Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society| date = 1995| bibcode = 1995QJRAS..36..193H}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 5| issue = 3| pages = 34–45| last = Gardner| first = J. N.| title = The Selfish Biocosm: complexity as cosmology| journal = Complexity| date = 2000| doi=10.1002/(sici)1099-0526(200001/02)5:3<34::aid-cplx7>3.0.co;2-8| bibcode = 2000Cmplx...5c..34G}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Government Printing Office, NASA SP-2009-4802| pages = 201–295| editor1 = S. J. Dick |editor2= Mark L. Lupisella | last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = Cosmos and Culture: Cultural Evolution in a Cosmic Context| chapter = Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture.| location = Washington D.C.| date = 2009}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer| isbn = 978-3-319-05061-4| last = Vidal| first = C.| title = The Beginning and the End: The Meaning of Life in a Cosmological Perspective| location = New York| date = 2014| arxiv = 1301.1648| bibcode = 2013PhDT.........2V| doi = 10.1007/978-3-319-05062-1| series = The Frontiers Collection| s2cid = 118419030| url = http://cds.cern.ch/record/1748203| type = Submitted manuscript}}</ref>
Applying this vision to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence leads to the idea that advanced intelligent life reconfigures itself into a black hole. Such advanced life forms would be interested in inner space, rather than outer space and interstellar expansion. They would thus in some way transcend reality, not be observable and it would be a solution to Fermi's paradox called the "transcension hypothesis". Another solution is that the black holes we observe could actually be interpreted as intelligent super-civilizations feeding on stars, or "stellivores".
This dynamics of evolution and development is an invitation to study the universe itself as evolving, developing. If the universe is a kind of superorganism, it may possibly tend to reproduce, naturally or artificially, with intelligent life playing a role.
将这一观点应用于搜寻地外文明计划生命系统，导致了先进智慧生命将自身重组为黑洞的观点。这种先进的生命形式会对内部空间感兴趣，而不是外层空间和星际扩张。因此，它们将在某种程度上超越现实，不可观测，这将是一个解决费米悖论所谓的“超越假说”。另一个解决方案是，我们观察到的黑洞实际上可以被解释为以恒星为食的智能超级文明，或称为“星食动物”。这种进化和发展的动力学是一种邀请，邀请我们研究宇宙本身的进化和发展。如果宇宙是一种超有机体，那么它可能倾向于自然地或人为地繁殖，而智能生命扮演着一个角色。
==Other estimates==
Dramatic changes in the rate of economic growth have occurred in the past because of some technological advancement. Based on population growth, the economy doubled every 250,000 years from the [[Paleolithic]] era until the [[Neolithic Revolution]]. The new agricultural economy doubled every 900 years, a remarkable increase. In the current era, beginning with the Industrial Revolution, the world's economic output doubles every fifteen years, sixty times faster than during the agricultural era. If the rise of superhuman intelligence causes a similar revolution, argues Robin Hanson, then one would expect the economy to double at least quarterly and possibly on a weekly basis.<ref name="Hanson">{{Citation |url=http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/robotics-software/economics-of-the-singularity |title=Economics Of The Singularity |author=Robin Hanson |work=IEEE Spectrum Special Report: The Singularity |access-date=2020-04-23 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110811005825/http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/robotics-software/economics-of-the-singularity |archive-date=2011-08-11 |url-status=dead }} & [http://hanson.gmu.edu/longgrow.pdf Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes]</ref>
Dramatic changes in the rate of economic growth have occurred in the past because of some technological advancement. Based on population growth, the economy doubled every 250,000 years from the Paleolithic era until the Neolithic Revolution. The new agricultural economy doubled every 900 years, a remarkable increase. In the current era, beginning with the Industrial Revolution, the world's economic output doubles every fifteen years, sixty times faster than during the agricultural era. If the rise of superhuman intelligence causes a similar revolution, argues Robin Hanson, then one would expect the economy to double at least quarterly and possibly on a weekly basis. & Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes
过去由于某些技术进步，经济增长率发生了巨大的变化。基于人口增长，从旧石器时代到21新石器革命，经济每25万年翻一番。新农业经济每900年翻一番，是一个显著的增长。在当今时代，从工业革命开始，世界经济产出每15年翻一番，比农业时代快60倍。罗宾 · 汉森认为，如果超人智力的增长引发了一场类似的革命，那么人们就会预期经济至少每季度翻一番，甚至可能每周翻一番。长期增长作为一系列指数模式
In his 1981 book [[Critical Path (book)|Critical Path]], futurist and inventor [[R. Buckminster Fuller]] estimated that if we took all the knowledge that mankind had accumulated and transmitted by the year One CE as equal to one unit of information, it probably took about 1500 years (or until the sixteenth century) for that amount of knowledge to double. The next doubling of knowledge from two to four 'knowledge units' took only 250 years, until about 1750 CE. By 1900, one hundred and fifty years later, knowledge had doubled again to 8 units. The observed speed at which information doubled was getting faster and faster.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Fuller |first1=Buckminster |title=Critical Path |url=https://archive.org/details/criticalpath00full |url-access=registration |date=1981 |isbn=0312174918}}</ref>
In modern times, exponential knowledge progressions therefore change at an ever-increasing rate. Depending on the progression, this tends to lead toward explosive growth at some point. A simple exponential curve that represents this accelerating change phenomenon could be modeled by a [[Exponential function|doubling function]]. This fast rate of knowledge doubling leads up to the basic proposed [[hypothesis]] of the [[technological singularity]]: the rate at which technology progression surpasses human biological evolution.
In his 1981 book Critical Path, futurist and inventor R. Buckminster Fuller estimated that if we took all the knowledge that mankind had accumulated and transmitted by the year One CE as equal to one unit of information, it probably took about 1500 years (or until the sixteenth century) for that amount of knowledge to double. The next doubling of knowledge from two to four 'knowledge units' took only 250 years, until about 1750 CE. By 1900, one hundred and fifty years later, knowledge had doubled again to 8 units. The observed speed at which information doubled was getting faster and faster.
In modern times, exponential knowledge progressions therefore change at an ever-increasing rate. Depending on the progression, this tends to lead toward explosive growth at some point. A simple exponential curve that represents this accelerating change phenomenon could be modeled by a doubling function. This fast rate of knowledge doubling leads up to the basic proposed hypothesis of the technological singularity: the rate at which technology progression surpasses human biological evolution.
在他1981年出版的《关键路径》一书中，未来学家和发明家巴克敏斯特·福乐估计，如果我们把人类在公元一年前积累和传播的所有知识当作等于一个信息单位，那么大约需要1500年(或者直到16世纪) ，这个知识量才会翻倍。接下来的知识从两个翻倍到四个知识单位只用了250年，直到公元1750年左右。到1900年，150年后，知识再次翻倍，达到8个单位。观察到的信息翻倍的速度越来越快。在现代，知识的指数级数因此以不断增长的速度变化。根据进展，这往往导致爆炸性增长在某一点。代表这种加速变化现象的简单指数曲线可以用倍增函数来模拟。这种知识快速翻倍的速度导致了技术奇异点的基本假设: 技术进步超过人类生物进化的速度。
==Criticisms==
Both [[Theodore Modis]] and Jonathan Huebner have argued—each from different perspectives—that the rate of technological innovation has not only ceased to rise, but is actually now declining.<ref name="auto2">{{Cite journal |last=Korotayev |first=Andrey |year=2018 |title=The 21st Century Singularity and its Big History Implications: A re-analysis |journal=Journal of Big History |volume=2 |issue=3 |pages=71–118|doi=10.22339/jbh.v2i3.2320 |doi-access=free }}</ref>
Both Theodore Modis and Jonathan Huebner have argued—each from different perspectives—that the rate of technological innovation has not only ceased to rise, but is actually now declining.
西奥多 · 莫迪斯和乔纳森 · 休布纳都从不同的角度认为，技术创新的速度不仅停止了上升，而且实际上正在下降。
==Gallery==
Kurzweil created the following graphs to illustrate his beliefs concerning and his justification for his Law of Accelerating Returns.
<gallery>
Image:PPTExponentialGrowthof Computing.jpg|Computer power grows exponentially
Image:PPTSuperComputersPRINT.jpg|Exponential growth in [[supercomputer]] power
</gallery>
Kurzweil created the following graphs to illustrate his beliefs concerning and his justification for his Law of Accelerating Returns.
Image:PPTExponentialGrowthof Computing.jpg|Computer power grows exponentially
Image:PPTSuperComputersPRINT.jpg|Exponential growth in supercomputer power
库兹韦尔创作了下列图表来说明他对加速返回定律的看法和理由。图片来源: pptexponentialgrowthofcomputing.jpg | 计算机能力呈指数增长图片来源: PPTSuperComputersPRINT.jpg | 指数增长
==See also==
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* {{annotated link|Accelerando|''Accelerando''}}
* {{annotated link|Accelerationism}}
* {{annotated link|Diminishing returns}}
* {{annotated link|Future Shock|''Future Shock''}}
* {{annotated link|Logarithmic timeline}}
* {{annotated link|Novelty theory}}
* {{annotated link|Simulated reality}}
* {{annotated link|Zimmerman's law}}
{{div col end}}
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==Notes==
{{Reflist|30em}}
==References==
*TechCast Article Series, Al Leedahl, [https://web.archive.org/web/20110304064527/http://www.techcast.org/Upload/PDFs/633427424769769211_TCAlLeedahl-AcceleratingChange.pdf Accelerating Change]
*[http://edurss.ru/cgi-bin/db.pl?cp=&page=Book&id=53185&lang=en&blang=en&list=Found History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies]. Edited by [[Peter Turchin]], [[Leonid Grinin]], [[Andrey Korotayev]], and Victor C. de Munck. Moscow: KomKniga, 2006. {{ISBN|5-484-01002-0}}
*Kurzweil, Ray (2001), [https://web.archive.org/web/20070517200550/http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=%2Farticles%2Fart0134.html Essay: The Law of Accelerating Returns]
* {{cite book |author-link=Francis Heylighen |last=Heylighen |first=Francis |date=2007 |chapter=Accelerating socio-technological evolution: from ephemeralization and stigmergy to the Global Brain |chapter-url=http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/Papers/AcceleratingEvolution.pdf |editor1-link=George Modelski |editor1-first=George |editor1-last=Modelski |editor2-first=Tessaleno |editor2-last=Devezas |editor3-first=William |editor3-last=Thompson |title=Globalization as evolutionary process: Modeling global change |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=JHKTAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA284 |place=London | publisher=Routledge | series=Rethinking Globalizations |isbn=978-0-415-77361-4 |pages=284–335}} {{ISBN|978-1-135-97764-1}}.
==Further reading==
* Link, Stefan J. ''Forging Global Fordism: Nazi Germany, Soviet Russia, and the Contest over the Industrial Order'' (2020) [https://www.amazon.com/Forging-Global-Fordism-Germany-Industrial/dp/0691177546/ excerpt]
*TechCast Article Series, Al Leedahl, Accelerating Change
*History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies. Edited by Peter Turchin, Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev, and Victor C. de Munck. Moscow: KomKniga, 2006.
*Kurzweil, Ray (2001), Essay: The Law of Accelerating Returns
* .
* Link, Stefan J. Forging Global Fordism: Nazi Germany, Soviet Russia, and the Contest over the Industrial Order (2020) excerpt
历史与数学: 复杂社会的历史动力与发展。编辑: Peter Turchin，Leonid Grinin，安德烈·科罗塔耶夫，Victor c. de Munck。莫斯科: KomKniga，2006年。
* 库兹韦尔，雷(2001) ，论文: 加速回报法则
* 。= = 进一步阅读 = = =
* Link，Stefan j。锻造全球福特主义: 纳粹德国，苏联，争夺工业秩序(2020年)摘录
==External links==
* [https://web.archive.org/web/20110304064527/http://www.techcast.org/Upload/PDFs/633427424769769211_TCAlLeedahl-AcceleratingChange.pdf Accelerating Change], TechCast Article Series, Al Leedahl.
* [http://www.kurzweilai.net/ Kurzweil's official site]
* [https://web.archive.org/web/20100619033859/http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1 The Law of Accelerating Returns] by [[Ray Kurzweil]]
* [http://www.idsia.ch/~juergen/history.html Is History Converging? Again?] by [[Juergen Schmidhuber]]: singularity predictions as a side-effect of memory compression?
* [http://repositories.cdlib.org/imbs/socdyn/wp/wp6/ Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends]
* [http://tqe.quaker.org/2005/TQE117-EN-RoyalMail.html The Royal Mail Coach: Metaphor for a Changing World]
* Accelerating Change, TechCast Article Series, Al Leedahl.
* Kurzweil's official site
* The Law of Accelerating Returns by Ray Kurzweil
* Is History Converging? Again? by Juergen Schmidhuber: singularity predictions as a side-effect of memory compression?
* Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends
* The Royal Mail Coach: Metaphor for a Changing World
= = = 外部链接 = =
* 加速变革，TechCast 文章系列，Al Leedahl。
* 库兹韦尔的官方网站
* 加速回报法则作者: 雷 · 库兹韦尔
* 历史在融合吗？又来了？奇点预测是记忆压缩的副作用吗？
* 世俗周期与千禧潮流
* 皇家邮政教练: 变化世界的隐喻
{{emerging technologies|topics=yes}}
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[[Category:Futures studies]]
[[Category:Social change]]
[[Category:History of technology]]
[[Category:Sociological theories]]
[[Category:Technological change]]
[[Category:Theories of history]]
Category:Evolution
Category:Futures studies
Category:Social change
Category:History of technology
Category:Sociological theories
Category:Technological change
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范畴: 进化范畴: 期货研究范畴: 社会变革范畴: 技术史范畴: 社会学理论范畴: 技术变革范畴: 历史理论
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{{Short description|Perceived increase in the rate of technological change throughout history}}
{{more footnotes|date=September 2020}}
{{Futures studies}}
In [[futures studies]] and the [[history of technology]], '''accelerating change''' is a perceived increase in the rate of [[technological change]] throughout history, which may suggest faster and more profound change in the future and may or may not be accompanied by equally profound social and cultural change.
In futures studies and the history of technology, accelerating change is a perceived increase in the rate of technological change throughout history, which may suggest faster and more profound change in the future and may or may not be accompanied by equally profound social and cultural change.
在未来研究和技术历史中，加速变革是指人们认为整个历史上技术变革速度的加快，这可能意味着未来将发生更快和更深刻的变革，而且可能伴随也可能不伴随同样深刻的社会和文化变革。
== Early observations ==
In 1910 during the town planning conference of London [[Daniel Burnham]] noted, "But it is not merely in the number of facts or sorts of knowledge that progress lies: it is still more in the geometric ratio of sophistication, in the [[geometric growth|geometric widening]] of the sphere of knowledge, which every year is taking in a larger percentage of people as time goes on."<ref name="Transactions">{{Cite book|url=https://archive.org/details/transactions00town|title=Transactions|first1=England)|last1=Town Planning Conference (1910 : London|last2=Royal Institute of British Architects|date=8 July 2018|publisher=London : Royal Institute of British Architects|via=Internet Archive}}</ref> And later on, "It is the argument with which I began, that a mighty change having come about in fifty years, and our pace of development having immensely accelerated, our sons and grandsons are going to demand and get results that would stagger us."<ref name="Transactions"/>
In 1910 during the town planning conference of London Daniel Burnham noted, "But it is not merely in the number of facts or sorts of knowledge that progress lies: it is still more in the geometric ratio of sophistication, in the geometric widening of the sphere of knowledge, which every year is taking in a larger percentage of people as time goes on." And later on, "It is the argument with which I began, that a mighty change having come about in fifty years, and our pace of development having immensely accelerated, our sons and grandsons are going to demand and get results that would stagger us."
= = 早期观察 = = 1910年在伦敦城市规划会议期间，丹尼尔 · 伯纳姆指出:”但是，进步不仅仅在于事实或知识的数量: 更多的是在于复杂程度的几何比，在于知识领域的几何扩展，随着时间的推移，这一领域每年吸引的人口比例越来越大后来，“我开始的论点是，50年来发生了巨大的变化，我们的发展步伐已经大大加快，我们的子孙将要求并得到令我们震惊的结果。”
In 1938, [[Buckminster Fuller]] introduced the word [[ephemeralization]] to describe the trends of "doing more with less" in chemistry, health and other areas of [[industrial development]].<ref>[[Buckminster Fuller|R. Buckminster Fuller]], ''[[Nine Chains to the Moon]]'', [[Southern Illinois University Press]] [1938] 1963 pp. 276–79.</ref> In 1946, Fuller published a chart of the discoveries of the chemical elements over time to highlight the development of accelerating acceleration in human knowledge acquisition.<ref>[[Buckminster Fuller|R. Buckminster Fuller]], ''[[Synergetics (Fuller)]]'', http://www.rwgrayprojects.com/synergetics/s04/figs/f1903.html</ref>
In 1938, Buckminster Fuller introduced the word ephemeralization to describe the trends of "doing more with less" in chemistry, health and other areas of industrial development.R. Buckminster Fuller, Nine Chains to the Moon, Southern Illinois University Press [1938] 1963 pp. 276–79. In 1946, Fuller published a chart of the discoveries of the chemical elements over time to highlight the development of accelerating acceleration in human knowledge acquisition.R. Buckminster Fuller, Synergetics (Fuller), http://www.rwgrayprojects.com/synergetics/s04/figs/f1903.html
1938年，巴克敏斯特·福乐引入了商品陈旧加速化一词来描述化学、健康和其他工业发展领域中“少花钱多办事”的趋势。巴克敏斯特·福乐，《九条通往月球的链条》 ，南伊利诺伊斯大学出版社[1938]1963页。276–79.1946年，富勒发表了一张化学元素随时间演变的发现图表，以强调加速人类知识获取的发展。巴克敏斯特·福乐，协同学(Fuller) ， http://www.rwgrayprojects.com/Synergetics/s04/figs/f1903.html
In 1958, [[Stanislaw Ulam]] wrote in reference to a conversation with [[John von Neumann]]: {{quote|One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.<ref name="mathematical">{{cite journal|url=https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-5-JeCa2Z7hbWcxTGsyU09HSTg/edit?pli=1 | last=Ulam|first=Stanislaw |title=Tribute to John von Neumann|publisher=Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society|volume= 64, nr 3, part 2|date=May 1958|page=5}}</ref>}}
In 1958, Stanislaw Ulam wrote in reference to a conversation with John von Neumann:
1958年，Stanislaw Ulam 在与约翰·冯·诺伊曼的一次谈话中写道:
==Moravec's ''Mind Children''==
In a series of published articles from 1974–1979, and then in his 1988 book ''Mind Children'', computer scientist and futurist [[Hans Moravec]] generalizes [[Moore's law]] to make predictions about the future of artificial life. Moore's law describes an [[exponential growth]] pattern in the complexity of integrated semiconductor circuits. Moravec extends this to include technologies from long before the integrated circuit to future forms of technology. Moravec outlines a timeline and a scenario<ref>{{cite journal| url=http://www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm| journal=Journal of Evolution and Technology| date=1998| volume=1| title=When will computer hardware match the human brain?| first=Hans| last=Moravec| access-date=2006-06-23| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060615031852/http://transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm| archive-date=15 June 2006| url-status=dead}}</ref><ref>{{cite web| url=http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/general.articles/1993/Robot93.html| title= The Age of Robots|date=June 1993| first=Hans| last=Moravec| access-date=2006-06-23| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20060615055406/http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/general.articles/1993/Robot93.html| archive-date= 15 June 2006 | url-status= live}}</ref> in which robots will evolve into a new series of artificial species, starting around 2030–2040.<ref>{{cite web| url=http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/robot.papers/2004/Predictions.html| title=Robot Predictions Evolution| first=Hans| last=Moravec|date=April 2004| access-date=2006-06-23| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20060616045535/http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/robot.papers/2004/Predictions.html| archive-date= 16 June 2006 | url-status= live}}</ref>
In ''Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind'', published in 1998, Moravec further considers the implications of evolving [[robot intelligence]], generalizing [[Moore's Law]] to technologies predating the [[integrated circuit]], and also plotting the exponentially increasing computational power of the brains of animals in evolutionary history. Extrapolating these trends, he speculates about a coming "mind fire" of rapidly expanding [[superintelligence]] similar to the [[intelligence explosion|explosion of intelligence]] predicted by Vinge.
In a series of published articles from 1974–1979, and then in his 1988 book Mind Children, computer scientist and futurist Hans Moravec generalizes Moore's law to make predictions about the future of artificial life. Moore's law describes an exponential growth pattern in the complexity of integrated semiconductor circuits. Moravec extends this to include technologies from long before the integrated circuit to future forms of technology. Moravec outlines a timeline and a scenario in which robots will evolve into a new series of artificial species, starting around 2030–2040.
In Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind, published in 1998, Moravec further considers the implications of evolving robot intelligence, generalizing Moore's Law to technologies predating the integrated circuit, and also plotting the exponentially increasing computational power of the brains of animals in evolutionary history. Extrapolating these trends, he speculates about a coming "mind fire" of rapidly expanding superintelligence similar to the explosion of intelligence predicted by Vinge.
计算机科学家和未来学家汉斯 · 莫拉维克在他1974-1979年发表的一系列文章中，以及在他1988年出版的《思想的孩子》一书中，概括了摩尔定律，对人工生命的未来作出了预测。摩尔定律描述了集成半导体电路复杂性的指数增长模式。莫拉维克将其扩展到包括从集成电路之前很久的技术到未来的技术形式。莫拉维克概述了一个时间表和一个场景，其中机器人将进化成一系列新的人工物种，大约从2030-2040年开始。在1998年出版的《机器人: 从纯粹的机器到超验的思维》一书中，莫拉维克进一步思考了进化中的机器人智能的含义，将摩尔定律推广到比集成电路更早的技术中，并绘制了在进化史上动物大脑的指数级增长的计算能力。通过推断这些趋势，他推测出一种快速扩张的超级智能的“心灵之火”即将到来，类似于 Vinge 预测的智能爆炸。
== James Burke's ''Connections'' ==
{{Main|Connections (British documentary)}}
{{unreferenced section|date=September 2020}}
In his TV series ''[[Connections (British documentary)|Connections]]'' (1978)—and sequels ''Connections²'' (1994) and ''Connections³'' (1997)—[[James Burke (science historian)|James Burke]] explores an "Alternative View of Change" (the subtitle of the series) that rejects the conventional linear and teleological view of historical progress. Burke contends that one cannot consider the development of any particular piece of the modern world in isolation. Rather, the entire gestalt of the modern world is the result of a web of interconnected events, each one consisting of a person or group acting for reasons of their own motivations (e.g., profit, curiosity, religious) with no concept of the final, modern result to which the actions of either them or their contemporaries would lead. The interplay of the results of these isolated events is what drives history and innovation, and is also the main focus of the series and its sequels.
In his TV series Connections (1978)—and sequels Connections² (1994) and Connections³ (1997)—James Burke explores an "Alternative View of Change" (the subtitle of the series) that rejects the conventional linear and teleological view of historical progress. Burke contends that one cannot consider the development of any particular piece of the modern world in isolation. Rather, the entire gestalt of the modern world is the result of a web of interconnected events, each one consisting of a person or group acting for reasons of their own motivations (e.g., profit, curiosity, religious) with no concept of the final, modern result to which the actions of either them or their contemporaries would lead. The interplay of the results of these isolated events is what drives history and innovation, and is also the main focus of the series and its sequels.
詹姆斯 · 伯克的《关系》在他的电视连续剧《关系》(1978)以及续集《关系》(1994)和《关系》(1997)中探索了一种“另类变革观”(该剧的副标题) ，该观点拒绝了传统的线性和目的论的历史进步观点。伯克认为，人们不能孤立地考虑现代世界任何特定部分的发展。相反，现代世界的整个形态是一个相互关联的事件网络的结果，每个事件都是由一个人或一个团体出于自己的动机(例如，利益、好奇心、宗教)而行动，对他们或他们同时代人的行动将导致的最终现代结果没有概念。这些孤立事件的结果之间的相互作用是推动历史和创新的动力，也是这一系列及其续集的主要焦点。
Burke also explores three corollaries to his initial thesis. The first is that, if history is driven by individuals who act only on what they know at the time, and not because of any idea as to where their actions will eventually lead, then predicting the future course of technological progress is merely conjecture. Therefore, if we are astonished by the connections Burke is able to weave among past events, then we will be equally surprised to what the events of today eventually will lead, especially events we weren't even aware of at the time.
Burke also explores three corollaries to his initial thesis. The first is that, if history is driven by individuals who act only on what they know at the time, and not because of any idea as to where their actions will eventually lead, then predicting the future course of technological progress is merely conjecture. Therefore, if we are astonished by the connections Burke is able to weave among past events, then we will be equally surprised to what the events of today eventually will lead, especially events we weren't even aware of at the time.
伯克还探讨了他的初始论点的三个推论。首先，如果历史是由个人驱动的，他们只根据当时所知的行动，而不是因为他们的行动最终会导向何方，那么预测未来技术进步的进程只是猜测。因此，如果我们对伯克能够在过去的事件之间编织联系感到惊讶，那么我们也会同样惊讶于今天的事件最终会导致什么，特别是那些我们当时甚至不知道的事件。
The second and third corollaries are explored most in the introductory and concluding episodes, and they represent the downside of an interconnected history. If history progresses because of the synergistic interaction of past events and innovations, then as history does progress, the number of these events and innovations increases. This increase in possible connections causes the process of innovation to not only continue, but to accelerate. Burke poses the question of what happens when this rate of innovation, or more importantly change itself, becomes too much for the average person to handle, and what this means for individual power, liberty, and privacy.
The second and third corollaries are explored most in the introductory and concluding episodes, and they represent the downside of an interconnected history. If history progresses because of the synergistic interaction of past events and innovations, then as history does progress, the number of these events and innovations increases. This increase in possible connections causes the process of innovation to not only continue, but to accelerate. Burke poses the question of what happens when this rate of innovation, or more importantly change itself, becomes too much for the average person to handle, and what this means for individual power, liberty, and privacy.
第二个和第三个推论在导言和结尾部分探讨得最多，它们代表了一段相互关联的历史的不利方面。如果历史因为过去的事件和创新的协同作用而发展，那么随着历史的发展，这些事件和创新的数量会增加。这种可能联系的增加不仅使创新过程继续下去，而且使其加速。伯克提出了一个问题，当这种创新的速度，或者更重要的是改变自己，变得对普通人来说太难以应付时会发生什么，这对个人权力、自由和隐私意味着什么。
== Gerald Hawkins' ''Mindsteps'' ==
== Gerald Hawkins' Mindsteps ==
= = 杰拉尔德 · 霍金斯思考步骤 = =
In his book "Mindsteps to the Cosmos" (HarperCollins, August 1983), [[Gerald Hawkins|Gerald S. Hawkins]] elucidated his notion of 'mindsteps', dramatic and irreversible changes to [[paradigms]] or world views. He identified five distinct mindsteps in human history, and the technology that accompanied these "new world views": the invention of imagery, writing, mathematics, printing, the telescope, rocket, radio, TV, computer... "Each one takes the collective mind closer to reality, one stage further along in its understanding of the relation of humans to the cosmos." He noted: "The waiting period between the mindsteps is getting shorter. One can't help noticing the acceleration." Hawkins' empirical 'mindstep equation' quantified this, and gave dates for future mindsteps. The date of the next mindstep (5; the series begins at 0) is given as 2021, with two further, successively closer mindsteps in 2045 and 2051, until the limit of the series in 2053. His speculations ventured beyond the technological:
In his book "Mindsteps to the Cosmos" (HarperCollins, August 1983), Gerald S. Hawkins elucidated his notion of 'mindsteps', dramatic and irreversible changes to paradigms or world views. He identified five distinct mindsteps in human history, and the technology that accompanied these "new world views": the invention of imagery, writing, mathematics, printing, the telescope, rocket, radio, TV, computer... "Each one takes the collective mind closer to reality, one stage further along in its understanding of the relation of humans to the cosmos." He noted: "The waiting period between the mindsteps is getting shorter. One can't help noticing the acceleration." Hawkins' empirical 'mindstep equation' quantified this, and gave dates for future mindsteps. The date of the next mindstep (5; the series begins at 0) is given as 2021, with two further, successively closer mindsteps in 2045 and 2051, until the limit of the series in 2053. His speculations ventured beyond the technological:
杰拉尔德 · s · 霍金斯(Gerald s. Hawkins)在他的著作《迈向宇宙》(Mindsteps to the Cosmos，HarperCollins，1983年8月)中阐明了他的“迈向宇宙”(Mindsteps)概念，即范式或世界观发生戏剧性且不可逆转的变化。他确定了人类历史上五个不同的思维步骤，以及伴随这些“新世界观”而来的技术: 图像、文字、数学、印刷术、望远镜、火箭、无线电、电视、计算机... ... “每一个都使集体思维更接近现实，在理解人类与宇宙的关系上又前进了一步。”他指出: “思维步骤之间的等待时间越来越短。人们无法不注意到它的加速度。”霍金斯的经验性思维步骤方程量化了这一点，并给出了未来思维步骤的日期。下一个思维步骤的日期(5; 系列从0开始)被设定为2021年，在2045年和2051年有两个更进一步、更接近思维步骤，直到2053年系列的极限。他的思考超越了技术层面:
{{quote|The mindsteps... appear to have certain things in common - a new and unfolding human perspective, related inventions in the area of memes and communications, and a long formulative waiting period before the next mindstep comes along. None of the mindsteps can be said to have been truly anticipated, and most were resisted at the early stages. In looking to the future we may equally be caught unawares. We may have to grapple with the presently inconceivable, with mind-stretching discoveries and concepts.}}
[[Image:PPTMASSuseInventionsLogPRINT.jpg|thumb|right|200px|Mass use of inventions: Years until use by a quarter of US population]]
thumb|right|200px|Mass use of inventions: Years until use by a quarter of US population
大量的发明使用: 直到四分之一的美国人使用为止
==Vinge's exponentially accelerating change==
The mathematician [[Vernor Vinge]] popularized his ideas about exponentially accelerating technological change in the science fiction novel ''[[Marooned in Realtime]]'' (1986), set in a world of rapidly accelerating progress leading to the emergence of more and more sophisticated technologies separated by shorter and shorter time intervals, until a point beyond human comprehension is reached. His subsequent [[Hugo award]]-winning novel ''[[A Fire Upon the Deep]]'' (1992) starts with an imaginative description of the evolution of a [[superintelligence]] passing through exponentially accelerating developmental stages ending in a [[Transcendence (religion)|transcendent]], almost [[omnipotent]] power unfathomable by mere humans. His already mentioned influential 1993 paper on the [[technological singularity]] compactly summarizes the basic ideas.
The mathematician Vernor Vinge popularized his ideas about exponentially accelerating technological change in the science fiction novel Marooned in Realtime (1986), set in a world of rapidly accelerating progress leading to the emergence of more and more sophisticated technologies separated by shorter and shorter time intervals, until a point beyond human comprehension is reached. His subsequent Hugo award-winning novel A Fire Upon the Deep (1992) starts with an imaginative description of the evolution of a superintelligence passing through exponentially accelerating developmental stages ending in a transcendent, almost omnipotent power unfathomable by mere humans. His already mentioned influential 1993 paper on the technological singularity compactly summarizes the basic ideas.
文奇的指数加速变化数学家文奇在科幻小说《实时放逐》(1986)中推广了他关于指数加速技术变化的想法，故事发生在一个快速加速发展的世界，导致出现越来越多的复杂技术，间隔时间越来越短，直到达到一个超出人类理解的点。他随后的雨果获奖小说《深渊之火》(1992)以一个富有想象力的描述开始，描述了超级智能经过指数级加速发展阶段的进化，最终以一种超然的、几乎无所不能的、仅仅是人类无法理解的力量结束。他在1993年发表的一篇有影响力的论文《技术奇异点简明扼要地总结了基本思想。
==Kurzweil's ''The Law of Accelerating Returns''{{anchor|The Law of Accelerating Returns|Law of Accelerating Returns}}==
==Kurzweil's The Law of Accelerating Returns==
= = 库兹韦尔加速回报定律 = =
In his 1999 book ''[[The Age of Spiritual Machines]]'', [[Ray Kurzweil]] proposed "The Law of Accelerating Returns", according to which the rate of change in a wide variety of evolutionary systems (including but not limited to the growth of technologies) tends to increase exponentially.<ref>Ray Kurzweil, ''The Age of Spiritual Machines'', Viking, 1999, [https://books.google.com/books?id=ldAGcyh0bkUC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA630#v=onepage&q&f=false p. 30] and [https://books.google.com/books?id=ldAGcyh0bkUC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA632#v=onepage&q&f=false p. 32]</ref> He gave further focus to this issue in a 2001 essay entitled "The Law of Accelerating Returns".<ref>[http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns ''The Law of Accelerating Returns'']. [[Ray Kurzweil]], March 7, 2001.</ref> In it, Kurzweil, after Moravec, argued for extending Moore's Law to describe [[exponential growth]] of diverse forms of [[technology|technological]] progress. Whenever a technology approaches some kind of a barrier, according to Kurzweil, a new technology will be invented to allow us to cross that barrier. He cites numerous past examples of this to substantiate his assertions. He predicts that such [[paradigm shift]]s have and will continue to become increasingly common, leading to "technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history". He believes the Law of Accelerating Returns implies that a [[technological singularity]] will occur before the end of the 21st century, around 2045. The essay begins:
In his 1999 book The Age of Spiritual Machines, Ray Kurzweil proposed "The Law of Accelerating Returns", according to which the rate of change in a wide variety of evolutionary systems (including but not limited to the growth of technologies) tends to increase exponentially.Ray Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines, Viking, 1999, p. 30 and p. 32 He gave further focus to this issue in a 2001 essay entitled "The Law of Accelerating Returns".The Law of Accelerating Returns. Ray Kurzweil, March 7, 2001. In it, Kurzweil, after Moravec, argued for extending Moore's Law to describe exponential growth of diverse forms of technological progress. Whenever a technology approaches some kind of a barrier, according to Kurzweil, a new technology will be invented to allow us to cross that barrier. He cites numerous past examples of this to substantiate his assertions. He predicts that such paradigm shifts have and will continue to become increasingly common, leading to "technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history". He believes the Law of Accelerating Returns implies that a technological singularity will occur before the end of the 21st century, around 2045. The essay begins:
在1999年出版的《精神机器时代》(The Age of Spiritual Machines)一书中，雷•库兹韦尔(Ray Kurzweil)提出了“加速回报法则”(The Law of Accelerating Returns) ，根据这一法则，各种进化系统(包括但不限于技术的发展)中的变化率往往呈指数增长。Ray Kurzweil，The Age of Spiritual Machines，Viking，1999，p. 30 and p. 32 He gave further focus to this issue in a 2001“ The Law of Accelerating Returns”。加速回报定律。雷 · 库兹韦尔，2001年3月7日。在这篇文章中，继莫拉维克之后，库兹韦尔主张扩展摩尔定律来描述技术进步的各种形式的指数增长。按照库兹韦尔的说法，每当一项技术接近某种障碍时，就会有一项新技术被发明出来，使我们能够跨越这个障碍。他引用了大量过去的例子来证明他的观点。他预测，这种范式转变已经并将继续变得越来越普遍，导致“技术变革如此迅速和深刻，代表着人类历史结构的断裂”。他相信加速回报定律意味着技术奇异点将在21世纪末，也就是2045年左右出现。文章开头写道:
{{quote|An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense 'intuitive linear' view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century—it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). The 'returns,' such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There's even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to the Singularity—technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.}}
{{Multiple image
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| image1 = PPTMooresLawai.jpg
| caption1 = Moore's Law expanded to other technologies.
| image2 = Moore's_Law_over_120_Years.png
| caption2 = An updated version of Moore's Law over 120 Years (based on [[Ray Kurzweil|Kurzweil's]] [[c:File:PPTMooresLawai.jpg|graph]]). The 7 most recent data points are all [[Nvidia GPUs]].
}}
The Law of Accelerating Returns has in many ways altered public perception of [[Moore's law]]. {{citation needed|date=May 2015}} It is a common (but mistaken) belief that Moore's law makes predictions regarding all forms of technology,{{citation needed|date=May 2013}} when really it only concerns semiconductor circuits. Many [[futurist]]s still use the term "Moore's law" to describe ideas like those put forth by Moravec, Kurzweil and others.
The Law of Accelerating Returns has in many ways altered public perception of Moore's law. It is a common (but mistaken) belief that Moore's law makes predictions regarding all forms of technology, when really it only concerns semiconductor circuits. Many futurists still use the term "Moore's law" to describe ideas like those put forth by Moravec, Kurzweil and others.
加速回报定律在许多方面改变了公众对摩尔定律的看法。人们普遍(但错误地)认为，摩尔定律对所有形式的技术都做出了预测，而实际上它只涉及到半导体电路。许多未来学家仍然使用“摩尔定律”来描述像莫拉维克、库兹韦尔和其他人提出的想法。
According to Kurzweil, since the beginning of [[evolution]], more complex life forms have been evolving exponentially faster, with shorter and shorter intervals between the emergence of radically new life forms, such as human beings, who have the capacity to engineer (i.e. intentionally design with efficiency) a new trait which replaces relatively blind evolutionary mechanisms of selection for efficiency. By extension, the rate of technical progress amongst humans has also been exponentially increasing, as we discover more effective ways to do things, we also discover more effective ways to learn, i.e. [[language]], numbers, written language, [[philosophy]], [[scientific method]], instruments of observation, tallying devices, mechanical calculators, computers, each of these major advances in our ability to account for information occur increasingly close together. Already within the past sixty years, life in the industrialized world has changed almost beyond recognition except for living memories from the first half of the 20th century. This pattern will culminate in unimaginable technological progress in the 21st century, leading to a singularity. Kurzweil elaborates on his views in his books ''The Age of Spiritual Machines'' and ''[[The Singularity Is Near]]''.
According to Kurzweil, since the beginning of evolution, more complex life forms have been evolving exponentially faster, with shorter and shorter intervals between the emergence of radically new life forms, such as human beings, who have the capacity to engineer (i.e. intentionally design with efficiency) a new trait which replaces relatively blind evolutionary mechanisms of selection for efficiency. By extension, the rate of technical progress amongst humans has also been exponentially increasing, as we discover more effective ways to do things, we also discover more effective ways to learn, i.e. language, numbers, written language, philosophy, scientific method, instruments of observation, tallying devices, mechanical calculators, computers, each of these major advances in our ability to account for information occur increasingly close together. Already within the past sixty years, life in the industrialized world has changed almost beyond recognition except for living memories from the first half of the 20th century. This pattern will culminate in unimaginable technological progress in the 21st century, leading to a singularity. Kurzweil elaborates on his views in his books The Age of Spiritual Machines and The Singularity Is Near.
据库兹韦尔说，自从进化开始以来，更复杂的生命形式以指数级的速度进化，在出现全新的生命形式之间的间隔时间越来越短，例如人类，他们有能力进行工程(即:。有意识地高效率地设计)一个新的特点，取代了相对盲目的进化机制的选择效率。推而广之，人类技术进步的速度也呈指数级增长，随着我们发现了更有效的做事方式，我们也发现了更有效的学习方式，即。语言，数字，书面语言，哲学，科学方法，观察工具，计数装置，机械计算器，计算机，我们记录信息能力的每一个重大进步，都越来越紧密地发生在一起。在过去的60年里，工业化世界的生活已经发生了翻天覆地的变化，除了20世纪上半叶的记忆。这种模式将在21世纪以难以想象的技术进步达到顶峰，导致一个奇点。库兹韦尔在他的著作《精神机器时代》和《奇点迫近阐述了他的观点。
==Limits of accelerating change==
Applying a scientific approach, we will notice in natural science that it is typical that processes characterized by exponential acceleration in their initial stages go into the saturation phase. This clearly makes it possible to realize that if an increase with acceleration is observed over a certain period of time, this does not mean an endless continuation of this process. On the contrary, in many cases this means an early exit to the plateau of speed. The processes occurring in natural science allow us to suggest that the observed picture of accelerating scientific and technological progress, after some time (in physical processes, as a rule, is short) will be replaced by a slowdown and a complete stop? Despite the possible termination / attenuation of the acceleration of the progress of science and technology in the foreseeable future, progress itself, and as a result, social transformations, will not stop or even slow down - it will continue with the achieved (possibly huge) speed, which has become constant.<ref>[https://philosophyjournal.spbu.ru/article/view/3182/2943 Shestakova I.' To the Question of the Limits of Progress: Is a Singularity Possible?.]</ref>
Applying a scientific approach, we will notice in natural science that it is typical that processes characterized by exponential acceleration in their initial stages go into the saturation phase. This clearly makes it possible to realize that if an increase with acceleration is observed over a certain period of time, this does not mean an endless continuation of this process. On the contrary, in many cases this means an early exit to the plateau of speed. The processes occurring in natural science allow us to suggest that the observed picture of accelerating scientific and technological progress, after some time (in physical processes, as a rule, is short) will be replaced by a slowdown and a complete stop? Despite the possible termination / attenuation of the acceleration of the progress of science and technology in the foreseeable future, progress itself, and as a result, social transformations, will not stop or even slow down - it will continue with the achieved (possibly huge) speed, which has become constant.Shestakova I.' To the Question of the Limits of Progress: Is a Singularity Possible?.
加速变化的极限运用科学的方法，我们将注意到在自然科学中，拥有属性指数加速在其初始阶段进入饱和阶段是很典型的。这显然使我们有可能认识到，如果在一段时间内观察到加速度的增加，这并不意味着这一过程无休止地继续下去。相反，在许多情况下，这意味着提前退出速度高原。自然科学中发生的过程使我们可以认为，观察到的加速科学和技术进步的图景，在一段时间之后(在物理过程中，通常是短暂的) ，将被减速和完全停止所取代？尽管在可预见的将来，科学和技术的加速进步可能会终止/减缓，但是进步本身，以及因此而产生的社会变革，将不会停止，甚至不会减缓——它将以已经达到的(可能是巨大的)速度继续下去，而这种速度已经不变。谢斯塔科娃一世关于进步的局限性的问题: 奇点是可能的吗。
Accelerating change may not be restricted to the [[Anthropocene]] Epoch,<ref>{{Cite journal|title=The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration|journal=The Anthropocene Review|volume=2|pages=81–98|doi=10.1177/2053019614564785|year = 2015|last1 = Steffen|first1 = Will|last2=Broadgate|first2=Wendy|last3=Deutsch|first3=Lisa|last4=Gaffney|first4=Owen|last5=Ludwig|first5=Cornelia|hdl=1885/66463|s2cid=131524600|url=https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/66463/8/01_Steffen_GREAT%20ACCELERATION_2015.pdf|hdl-access=free}}</ref> but a general and predictable developmental feature of the universe.<ref name="auto">{{Cite book| publisher = Government Printing Office, NASA SP-2009-4802| pages = 201–295| editor1 = S. J. Dick| editor2 = Mark L. Lupisella| last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = Cosmos and Culture: Cultural Evolution in a Cosmic Context| chapter = Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture.| location = Washington D.C.| date = 2009| chapter-url = http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartEvoDevoUniv2008.pdf| access-date = 2017-03-15| archive-date = 2017-01-24| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20170124023933/http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartEvoDevoUniv2008.pdf| url-status = dead}}</ref> The physical processes that generate an acceleration such as Moore's law are positive feedback loops giving rise to exponential or superexponential technological change.<ref>{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.07.006| issn = 0040-1625| volume = 78| issue = 8| pages = 1356–1364| last1 = Nagy| first1 = Béla| last2 = Farmer| first2 = J. Doyne| last3 = Trancik| first3 = Jessika E.| last4 = Gonzales| first4 = John Paul| title = Superexponential Long-Term Trends in Information Technology| journal = Technological Forecasting and Social Change| access-date = 2013-07-09| date = October 2011| url = http://www.santafe.edu/media/workingpapers/10-11-030.pdf| hdl = 1721.1/105411| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20140410202145/http://www.santafe.edu/media/workingpapers/10-11-030.pdf| archive-date = 2014-04-10| url-status = dead| hdl-access = free}}</ref> These dynamics lead to increasingly efficient and dense configurations of Space, Time, Energy, and Matter (STEM efficiency and density, or STEM "compression").<ref name="auto1">{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.actaastro.2011.11.006| issn = 0094-5765| volume = 78| pages = 55–68| last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = The Transcension Hypothesis: Sufficiently advanced civilizations invariably leave our universe, and implications for METI and SETI| journal = Acta Astronautica| url = http://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html| bibcode = 2012AcAau..78...55S| year = 2012| citeseerx = 10.1.1.695.2737| access-date = 2014-01-04| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20130922181839/http://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html| archive-date = 2013-09-22| url-status = dead}}</ref> At the physical limit, this developmental process of accelerating change leads to black hole density organizations, a conclusion also reached by studies of the ultimate physical limits of computation in the universe.<ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 406| issue = 6799| pages = 1047–1054| last = Lloyd| first = S.| title = Ultimate Physical Limits to Computation| journal = Nature| date = 2000| arxiv = quant-ph/9908043| bibcode = 2000Natur.406.1047L| doi = 10.1038/35023282| pmid = 10984064| s2cid = 75923}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Penguin Books| last = Kurzweil| first = R.| title = The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology| url = https://archive.org/details/singularityisnea00kurz_214| url-access = limited| date = 2005| page=[https://archive.org/details/singularityisnea00kurz_214/page/n361 362]}}</ref>
Accelerating change may not be restricted to the Anthropocene Epoch, but a general and predictable developmental feature of the universe. The physical processes that generate an acceleration such as Moore's law are positive feedback loops giving rise to exponential or superexponential technological change. These dynamics lead to increasingly efficient and dense configurations of Space, Time, Energy, and Matter (STEM efficiency and density, or STEM "compression"). At the physical limit, this developmental process of accelerating change leads to black hole density organizations, a conclusion also reached by studies of the ultimate physical limits of computation in the universe.
加速变化可能不局限于人类世时代，而是宇宙一个普遍的、可预测的发展特征。产生加速度的物理过程，如摩尔定律，是正反馈循环，引起指数或超指数的技术变革。这些动态导致了空间、时间、能量和物质(STEM 效率和密度，或 STEM“压缩”)的日益高效和密集的配置。在物理极限下，这种加速变化的发展过程导致了黑洞密度的组织，这也是对宇宙中计算的终极物理极限的研究得出的结论。
Applying this vision to the [[search for extraterrestrial intelligence]] leads to the idea that advanced intelligent life reconfigures itself into a black hole. Such advanced life forms would be interested in inner space, rather than outer space and interstellar expansion.<ref>{{Cite journal| issn = 0007-084X| volume = 61| issue = 7| pages = 246–254| last = Ćirković| first = Milan M.| title = Against the Empire| journal = Journal of the British Interplanetary Society| date = 2008| arxiv = 0805.1821| bibcode = 2008JBIS...61..246C}}</ref> They would thus in some way transcend reality, not be observable and it would be a solution to [[Fermi paradox|Fermi's paradox]] called the "transcension hypothesis".<ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer International Publishing| isbn = 978-3-319-13235-8 | last = Webb| first = Stephen| title = If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... Where Is Everybody?| location = Cham| series = Science and Fiction| date = 2015| pages = 203–206}}</ref><ref name="auto"/><ref name="auto1"/> Another solution is that the black holes we observe could actually be interpreted as intelligent super-civilizations feeding on stars, or "stellivores".<ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer International Publishing| isbn = 978-3-319-13235-8 | last = Webb| first = Stephen| title = If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... Where Is Everybody?| location = Cham| series = Science and Fiction| date = 2015| pages = 196–200}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.actaastro.2016.06.038| issn = 0094-5765| volume = 128| pages = 251–256| last = Vidal| first = C.| title = Stellivore extraterrestrials? Binary stars as living systems| journal = Acta Astronautica| date = 2016| bibcode = 2016AcAau.128..251V| url = https://zenodo.org/record/164853}}</ref>
This dynamics of evolution and development is an invitation to study the universe itself as evolving, developing.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.evodevouniverse.com|title=Evo Devo Universe Community|access-date=2018-04-25}}</ref> If the universe is a kind of superorganism, it may possibly tend to reproduce, naturally<ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 9| issue = 1| pages = 173–191| last = Smolin| first = Lee| title = Did the universe evolve?| journal = Classical and Quantum Gravity| date = 1992| bibcode = 1992CQGra...9..173S| doi = 10.1088/0264-9381/9/1/016}}</ref> or artificially, with intelligent life playing a role.<ref>{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1007/s10699-010-9182-y| issn = 1233-1821| volume = 15| issue = 4| pages = 369–373| last = Crane| first = Louis| title = Possible Implications of the Quantum Theory of Gravity: An Introduction to the Meduso-Anthropic Principle| journal = Foundations of Science| date = 2010| arxiv = hep-th/9402104| s2cid = 118422569}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 36| issue = 3| pages = 193–203| last = Harrison| first = E. R.| title = The Natural Selection of Universes Containing Intelligent Life| journal = Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society| date = 1995| bibcode = 1995QJRAS..36..193H}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 5| issue = 3| pages = 34–45| last = Gardner| first = J. N.| title = The Selfish Biocosm: complexity as cosmology| journal = Complexity| date = 2000| doi=10.1002/(sici)1099-0526(200001/02)5:3<34::aid-cplx7>3.0.co;2-8| bibcode = 2000Cmplx...5c..34G}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Government Printing Office, NASA SP-2009-4802| pages = 201–295| editor1 = S. J. Dick |editor2= Mark L. Lupisella | last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = Cosmos and Culture: Cultural Evolution in a Cosmic Context| chapter = Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture.| location = Washington D.C.| date = 2009}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer| isbn = 978-3-319-05061-4| last = Vidal| first = C.| title = The Beginning and the End: The Meaning of Life in a Cosmological Perspective| location = New York| date = 2014| arxiv = 1301.1648| bibcode = 2013PhDT.........2V| doi = 10.1007/978-3-319-05062-1| series = The Frontiers Collection| s2cid = 118419030| url = http://cds.cern.ch/record/1748203| type = Submitted manuscript}}</ref>
Applying this vision to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence leads to the idea that advanced intelligent life reconfigures itself into a black hole. Such advanced life forms would be interested in inner space, rather than outer space and interstellar expansion. They would thus in some way transcend reality, not be observable and it would be a solution to Fermi's paradox called the "transcension hypothesis". Another solution is that the black holes we observe could actually be interpreted as intelligent super-civilizations feeding on stars, or "stellivores".
This dynamics of evolution and development is an invitation to study the universe itself as evolving, developing. If the universe is a kind of superorganism, it may possibly tend to reproduce, naturally or artificially, with intelligent life playing a role.
将这一观点应用于搜寻地外文明计划生命系统，导致了先进智慧生命将自身重组为黑洞的观点。这种先进的生命形式会对内部空间感兴趣，而不是外层空间和星际扩张。因此，它们将在某种程度上超越现实，不可观测，这将是一个解决费米悖论所谓的“超越假说”。另一个解决方案是，我们观察到的黑洞实际上可以被解释为以恒星为食的智能超级文明，或称为“星食动物”。这种进化和发展的动力学是一种邀请，邀请我们研究宇宙本身的进化和发展。如果宇宙是一种超有机体，那么它可能倾向于自然地或人为地繁殖，而智能生命扮演着一个角色。
==Other estimates==
Dramatic changes in the rate of economic growth have occurred in the past because of some technological advancement. Based on population growth, the economy doubled every 250,000 years from the [[Paleolithic]] era until the [[Neolithic Revolution]]. The new agricultural economy doubled every 900 years, a remarkable increase. In the current era, beginning with the Industrial Revolution, the world's economic output doubles every fifteen years, sixty times faster than during the agricultural era. If the rise of superhuman intelligence causes a similar revolution, argues Robin Hanson, then one would expect the economy to double at least quarterly and possibly on a weekly basis.<ref name="Hanson">{{Citation |url=http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/robotics-software/economics-of-the-singularity |title=Economics Of The Singularity |author=Robin Hanson |work=IEEE Spectrum Special Report: The Singularity |access-date=2020-04-23 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110811005825/http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/robotics-software/economics-of-the-singularity |archive-date=2011-08-11 |url-status=dead }} & [http://hanson.gmu.edu/longgrow.pdf Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes]</ref>
Dramatic changes in the rate of economic growth have occurred in the past because of some technological advancement. Based on population growth, the economy doubled every 250,000 years from the Paleolithic era until the Neolithic Revolution. The new agricultural economy doubled every 900 years, a remarkable increase. In the current era, beginning with the Industrial Revolution, the world's economic output doubles every fifteen years, sixty times faster than during the agricultural era. If the rise of superhuman intelligence causes a similar revolution, argues Robin Hanson, then one would expect the economy to double at least quarterly and possibly on a weekly basis. & Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes
过去由于某些技术进步，经济增长率发生了巨大的变化。基于人口增长，从旧石器时代到21新石器革命，经济每25万年翻一番。新农业经济每900年翻一番，是一个显著的增长。在当今时代，从工业革命开始，世界经济产出每15年翻一番，比农业时代快60倍。罗宾 · 汉森认为，如果超人智力的增长引发了一场类似的革命，那么人们就会预期经济至少每季度翻一番，甚至可能每周翻一番。长期增长作为一系列指数模式
In his 1981 book [[Critical Path (book)|Critical Path]], futurist and inventor [[R. Buckminster Fuller]] estimated that if we took all the knowledge that mankind had accumulated and transmitted by the year One CE as equal to one unit of information, it probably took about 1500 years (or until the sixteenth century) for that amount of knowledge to double. The next doubling of knowledge from two to four 'knowledge units' took only 250 years, until about 1750 CE. By 1900, one hundred and fifty years later, knowledge had doubled again to 8 units. The observed speed at which information doubled was getting faster and faster.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Fuller |first1=Buckminster |title=Critical Path |url=https://archive.org/details/criticalpath00full |url-access=registration |date=1981 |isbn=0312174918}}</ref>
In modern times, exponential knowledge progressions therefore change at an ever-increasing rate. Depending on the progression, this tends to lead toward explosive growth at some point. A simple exponential curve that represents this accelerating change phenomenon could be modeled by a [[Exponential function|doubling function]]. This fast rate of knowledge doubling leads up to the basic proposed [[hypothesis]] of the [[technological singularity]]: the rate at which technology progression surpasses human biological evolution.
In his 1981 book Critical Path, futurist and inventor R. Buckminster Fuller estimated that if we took all the knowledge that mankind had accumulated and transmitted by the year One CE as equal to one unit of information, it probably took about 1500 years (or until the sixteenth century) for that amount of knowledge to double. The next doubling of knowledge from two to four 'knowledge units' took only 250 years, until about 1750 CE. By 1900, one hundred and fifty years later, knowledge had doubled again to 8 units. The observed speed at which information doubled was getting faster and faster.
In modern times, exponential knowledge progressions therefore change at an ever-increasing rate. Depending on the progression, this tends to lead toward explosive growth at some point. A simple exponential curve that represents this accelerating change phenomenon could be modeled by a doubling function. This fast rate of knowledge doubling leads up to the basic proposed hypothesis of the technological singularity: the rate at which technology progression surpasses human biological evolution.
在他1981年出版的《关键路径》一书中，未来学家和发明家巴克敏斯特·福乐估计，如果我们把人类在公元一年前积累和传播的所有知识当作等于一个信息单位，那么大约需要1500年(或者直到16世纪) ，这个知识量才会翻倍。接下来的知识从两个翻倍到四个知识单位只用了250年，直到公元1750年左右。到1900年，150年后，知识再次翻倍，达到8个单位。观察到的信息翻倍的速度越来越快。在现代，知识的指数级数因此以不断增长的速度变化。根据进展，这往往导致爆炸性增长在某一点。代表这种加速变化现象的简单指数曲线可以用倍增函数来模拟。这种知识快速翻倍的速度导致了技术奇异点的基本假设: 技术进步超过人类生物进化的速度。
==Criticisms==
Both [[Theodore Modis]] and Jonathan Huebner have argued—each from different perspectives—that the rate of technological innovation has not only ceased to rise, but is actually now declining.<ref name="auto2">{{Cite journal |last=Korotayev |first=Andrey |year=2018 |title=The 21st Century Singularity and its Big History Implications: A re-analysis |journal=Journal of Big History |volume=2 |issue=3 |pages=71–118|doi=10.22339/jbh.v2i3.2320 |doi-access=free }}</ref>
Both Theodore Modis and Jonathan Huebner have argued—each from different perspectives—that the rate of technological innovation has not only ceased to rise, but is actually now declining.
西奥多 · 莫迪斯和乔纳森 · 休布纳都从不同的角度认为，技术创新的速度不仅停止了上升，而且实际上正在下降。
==Gallery==
Kurzweil created the following graphs to illustrate his beliefs concerning and his justification for his Law of Accelerating Returns.
<gallery>
Image:PPTExponentialGrowthof Computing.jpg|Computer power grows exponentially
Image:PPTSuperComputersPRINT.jpg|Exponential growth in [[supercomputer]] power
</gallery>
Kurzweil created the following graphs to illustrate his beliefs concerning and his justification for his Law of Accelerating Returns.
Image:PPTExponentialGrowthof Computing.jpg|Computer power grows exponentially
Image:PPTSuperComputersPRINT.jpg|Exponential growth in supercomputer power
库兹韦尔创作了下列图表来说明他对加速返回定律的看法和理由。图片来源: pptexponentialgrowthofcomputing.jpg | 计算机能力呈指数增长图片来源: PPTSuperComputersPRINT.jpg | 指数增长
==See also==
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* {{annotated link|Accelerando|''Accelerando''}}
* {{annotated link|Accelerationism}}
* {{annotated link|Diminishing returns}}
* {{annotated link|Future Shock|''Future Shock''}}
* {{annotated link|Logarithmic timeline}}
* {{annotated link|Novelty theory}}
* {{annotated link|Simulated reality}}
* {{annotated link|Zimmerman's law}}
{{div col end}}
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==See also==
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==Notes==
{{Reflist|30em}}
==References==
*TechCast Article Series, Al Leedahl, [https://web.archive.org/web/20110304064527/http://www.techcast.org/Upload/PDFs/633427424769769211_TCAlLeedahl-AcceleratingChange.pdf Accelerating Change]
*[http://edurss.ru/cgi-bin/db.pl?cp=&page=Book&id=53185&lang=en&blang=en&list=Found History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies]. Edited by [[Peter Turchin]], [[Leonid Grinin]], [[Andrey Korotayev]], and Victor C. de Munck. Moscow: KomKniga, 2006. {{ISBN|5-484-01002-0}}
*Kurzweil, Ray (2001), [https://web.archive.org/web/20070517200550/http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=%2Farticles%2Fart0134.html Essay: The Law of Accelerating Returns]
* {{cite book |author-link=Francis Heylighen |last=Heylighen |first=Francis |date=2007 |chapter=Accelerating socio-technological evolution: from ephemeralization and stigmergy to the Global Brain |chapter-url=http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/Papers/AcceleratingEvolution.pdf |editor1-link=George Modelski |editor1-first=George |editor1-last=Modelski |editor2-first=Tessaleno |editor2-last=Devezas |editor3-first=William |editor3-last=Thompson |title=Globalization as evolutionary process: Modeling global change |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=JHKTAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA284 |place=London | publisher=Routledge | series=Rethinking Globalizations |isbn=978-0-415-77361-4 |pages=284–335}} {{ISBN|978-1-135-97764-1}}.
==Further reading==
* Link, Stefan J. ''Forging Global Fordism: Nazi Germany, Soviet Russia, and the Contest over the Industrial Order'' (2020) [https://www.amazon.com/Forging-Global-Fordism-Germany-Industrial/dp/0691177546/ excerpt]
*TechCast Article Series, Al Leedahl, Accelerating Change
*History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies. Edited by Peter Turchin, Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev, and Victor C. de Munck. Moscow: KomKniga, 2006.
*Kurzweil, Ray (2001), Essay: The Law of Accelerating Returns
* .
* Link, Stefan J. Forging Global Fordism: Nazi Germany, Soviet Russia, and the Contest over the Industrial Order (2020) excerpt
历史与数学: 复杂社会的历史动力与发展。编辑: Peter Turchin，Leonid Grinin，安德烈·科罗塔耶夫，Victor c. de Munck。莫斯科: KomKniga，2006年。
* 库兹韦尔，雷(2001) ，论文: 加速回报法则
* 。= = 进一步阅读 = = =
* Link，Stefan j。锻造全球福特主义: 纳粹德国，苏联，争夺工业秩序(2020年)摘录
==External links==
* [https://web.archive.org/web/20110304064527/http://www.techcast.org/Upload/PDFs/633427424769769211_TCAlLeedahl-AcceleratingChange.pdf Accelerating Change], TechCast Article Series, Al Leedahl.
* [http://www.kurzweilai.net/ Kurzweil's official site]
* [https://web.archive.org/web/20100619033859/http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1 The Law of Accelerating Returns] by [[Ray Kurzweil]]
* [http://www.idsia.ch/~juergen/history.html Is History Converging? Again?] by [[Juergen Schmidhuber]]: singularity predictions as a side-effect of memory compression?
* [http://repositories.cdlib.org/imbs/socdyn/wp/wp6/ Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends]
* [http://tqe.quaker.org/2005/TQE117-EN-RoyalMail.html The Royal Mail Coach: Metaphor for a Changing World]
* Accelerating Change, TechCast Article Series, Al Leedahl.
* Kurzweil's official site
* The Law of Accelerating Returns by Ray Kurzweil
* Is History Converging? Again? by Juergen Schmidhuber: singularity predictions as a side-effect of memory compression?
* Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends
* The Royal Mail Coach: Metaphor for a Changing World
= = = 外部链接 = =
* 加速变革，TechCast 文章系列，Al Leedahl。
* 库兹韦尔的官方网站
* 加速回报法则作者: 雷 · 库兹韦尔
* 历史在融合吗？又来了？奇点预测是记忆压缩的副作用吗？
* 世俗周期与千禧潮流
* 皇家邮政教练: 变化世界的隐喻
{{emerging technologies|topics=yes}}
[[Category:Evolution]]
[[Category:Futures studies]]
[[Category:Social change]]
[[Category:History of technology]]
[[Category:Sociological theories]]
[[Category:Technological change]]
[[Category:Theories of history]]
Category:Evolution
Category:Futures studies
Category:Social change
Category:History of technology
Category:Sociological theories
Category:Technological change
Category:Theories of history
范畴: 进化范畴: 期货研究范畴: 社会变革范畴: 技术史范畴: 社会学理论范畴: 技术变革范畴: 历史理论
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<small>This page was moved from [[wikipedia:en:Accelerating change]]. Its edit history can be viewed at [[加速变化/edithistory]]</small></noinclude>
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