集智百科 - 复杂系统|人工智能|复杂科学|复杂网络|自组织

更改

加速变化 (查看源代码)

2022年1月16日 (日) 02:55的版本

删除10,453字节 、 2022年1月16日 (日) 02:55
无编辑摘要
第43行： 第43行：  
而第二个和第三个推论，分别在导言部分和结尾部分重点讨论，主要展现的是伴随这样一个高度互联的历史而来的各种弊端。如果历史的演进确实表明，过去的事件和创新之间的是一个协同关系。那么，随着历史的演进，这些事件和创新的数量也会随之增加。因此，不断增加的事件之间的关联也会增加。这不仅会带来源源不断的创新，而且会导致创新的速度加快。伯克在这里提出了一个问题：如果创新的速度太快，创新给人们的生活带来太大的变化，以至于让绝大多数的普通人无力应对。到那时候，我们又该如何理解个人权力、自由和隐私呢？
 
而第二个和第三个推论，分别在导言部分和结尾部分重点讨论，主要展现的是伴随这样一个高度互联的历史而来的各种弊端。如果历史的演进确实表明，过去的事件和创新之间的是一个协同关系。那么，随着历史的演进，这些事件和创新的数量也会随之增加。因此，不断增加的事件之间的关联也会增加。这不仅会带来源源不断的创新，而且会导致创新的速度加快。伯克在这里提出了一个问题：如果创新的速度太快，创新给人们的生活带来太大的变化，以至于让绝大多数的普通人无力应对。到那时候，我们又该如何理解个人权力、自由和隐私呢？
   −
== Gerald Hawkins' ''Mindsteps （霍金斯的思考步骤）'' ==
+
== Gerald Hawkins' ''Mindsteps （霍金斯的认知阶梯）'' ==
 
In his book "Mindsteps to the Cosmos" (HarperCollins, August 1983), [[Gerald Hawkins|Gerald S. Hawkins]] elucidated his notion of 'mindsteps', dramatic and irreversible changes to [[paradigms]] or world views. He identified five distinct mindsteps in human history, and the technology that accompanied these "new world views": the invention of imagery, writing, mathematics, printing, the telescope, rocket, radio, TV, computer... "Each one takes the collective mind closer to reality, one stage further along in its understanding of the relation of humans to the cosmos." He noted: "The waiting period between the mindsteps is getting shorter. One can't help noticing the acceleration." Hawkins' empirical 'mindstep equation' quantified this, and gave dates for future mindsteps. The date of the next mindstep (5; the series begins at 0) is given as 2021, with two further, successively closer mindsteps in 2045 and 2051, until the limit of the series in 2053. His speculations ventured beyond the technological:
 
In his book "Mindsteps to the Cosmos" (HarperCollins, August 1983), [[Gerald Hawkins|Gerald S. Hawkins]] elucidated his notion of 'mindsteps', dramatic and irreversible changes to [[paradigms]] or world views. He identified five distinct mindsteps in human history, and the technology that accompanied these "new world views": the invention of imagery, writing, mathematics, printing, the telescope, rocket, radio, TV, computer... "Each one takes the collective mind closer to reality, one stage further along in its understanding of the relation of humans to the cosmos." He noted: "The waiting period between the mindsteps is getting shorter. One can't help noticing the acceleration." Hawkins' empirical 'mindstep equation' quantified this, and gave dates for future mindsteps. The date of the next mindstep (5; the series begins at 0) is given as 2021, with two further, successively closer mindsteps in 2045 and 2051, until the limit of the series in 2053. His speculations ventured beyond the technological:
   −
In his book "Mindsteps to the Cosmos" (HarperCollins, August 1983), Gerald S. Hawkins elucidated his notion of 'mindsteps', dramatic and irreversible changes to paradigms or world views. He identified five distinct mindsteps in human history, and the technology that accompanied these "new world views": the invention of imagery, writing, mathematics, printing, the telescope, rocket, radio, TV, computer... "Each one takes the collective mind closer to reality, one stage further along in its understanding of the relation of humans to the cosmos." He noted: "The waiting period between the mindsteps is getting shorter. One can't help noticing the acceleration." Hawkins' empirical 'mindstep equation' quantified this, and gave dates for future mindsteps. The date of the next mindstep (5; the series begins at 0) is given as 2021, with two further, successively closer mindsteps in 2045 and 2051, until the limit of the series in 2053. His speculations ventured beyond the technological:
     −
杰拉尔德 · s · 霍金斯(Gerald s. Hawkins)在他的著作《迈向宇宙》(Mindsteps to the Cosmos，HarperCollins，1983年8月)中阐明了他的“迈向宇宙”(Mindsteps)概念，即范式或世界观发生戏剧性且不可逆转的变化。他确定了人类历史上五个不同的思维步骤，以及伴随这些“新世界观”而来的技术: 图像、文字、数学、印刷术、望远镜、火箭、无线电、电视、计算机... ... “每一个都使集体思维更接近现实，在理解人类与宇宙的关系上又前进了一步。”他指出: “思维步骤之间的等待时间越来越短。人们无法不注意到它的加速度。”霍金斯的经验性思维步骤方程量化了这一点，并给出了未来思维步骤的日期。下一个思维步骤的日期(5; 系列从0开始)被设定为2021年，在2045年和2051年有两个更进一步、更接近思维步骤，直到2053年系列的极限。他的思考超越了技术层面:
+
杰拉德 · s · 霍金斯(Gerald s. Hawkins)在他的著作《通向宇宙奥秘的认知阶梯》(Mindsteps to the Cosmos，HarperCollins，1983年8月)中阐明了他的“认知阶梯”(Mindsteps)概念，即思维范式或世界观发生巨大的且不可逆转的变化。他认为人类历史上曾经历了五次“认知阶梯”式跨越，每一次认知跨越都伴随着技术的进步：图像操控能力、文字书写、数学、印刷术、望远镜、火箭、无线电、电视、计算机... ... “每一次进步都让人类整个群体的认知更接近客观存在的现实，帮助人们更好地理解人与宇宙之间的关系。”他指出: “这样的认知阶梯式的跨越所需要的时间越来越短，人们很难注意不到它正在加快。”霍金斯发明了一个经验性的方程来量化“认知阶梯”之间的时间间隔。由这个方程可以推算出人类跨越下一个认知阶梯，也就是人类历史上的第五个认知阶梯，将会发生在2021年。紧随其后的认知第六次和第七次将会发生在2045年和2051年。到2053年，人类集体的认知的能力达到极限。
    
{{quote|The mindsteps... appear to have certain things in common - a new and unfolding human perspective, related inventions in the area of memes and communications, and a long formulative waiting period before the next mindstep comes along. None of the mindsteps can be said to have been truly anticipated, and most were resisted at the early stages. In looking to the future we may equally be caught unawares. We may have to grapple with the presently inconceivable, with mind-stretching discoveries and concepts.}}
 
{{quote|The mindsteps... appear to have certain things in common - a new and unfolding human perspective, related inventions in the area of memes and communications, and a long formulative waiting period before the next mindstep comes along. None of the mindsteps can be said to have been truly anticipated, and most were resisted at the early stages. In looking to the future we may equally be caught unawares. We may have to grapple with the presently inconceivable, with mind-stretching discoveries and concepts.}}
第61行： 第60行：  
The mathematician [[Vernor Vinge]] popularized his ideas about exponentially accelerating technological change in the science fiction novel ''[[Marooned in Realtime]]'' (1986), set in a world of rapidly accelerating progress leading to the emergence of more and more sophisticated technologies separated by shorter and shorter time intervals, until a point beyond human comprehension is reached. His subsequent [[Hugo award]]-winning novel ''[[A Fire Upon the Deep]]'' (1992) starts with an imaginative description of the evolution of a [[superintelligence]] passing through exponentially accelerating developmental stages ending in a [[Transcendence (religion)|transcendent]], almost [[omnipotent]] power unfathomable by mere humans. His already mentioned influential 1993 paper on the [[technological singularity]] compactly summarizes the basic ideas.
 
The mathematician [[Vernor Vinge]] popularized his ideas about exponentially accelerating technological change in the science fiction novel ''[[Marooned in Realtime]]'' (1986), set in a world of rapidly accelerating progress leading to the emergence of more and more sophisticated technologies separated by shorter and shorter time intervals, until a point beyond human comprehension is reached. His subsequent [[Hugo award]]-winning novel ''[[A Fire Upon the Deep]]'' (1992) starts with an imaginative description of the evolution of a [[superintelligence]] passing through exponentially accelerating developmental stages ending in a [[Transcendence (religion)|transcendent]], almost [[omnipotent]] power unfathomable by mere humans. His already mentioned influential 1993 paper on the [[technological singularity]] compactly summarizes the basic ideas.
   −
The mathematician Vernor Vinge popularized his ideas about exponentially accelerating technological change in the science fiction novel Marooned in Realtime (1986), set in a world of rapidly accelerating progress leading to the emergence of more and more sophisticated technologies separated by shorter and shorter time intervals, until a point beyond human comprehension is reached. His subsequent Hugo award-winning novel A Fire Upon the Deep (1992) starts with an imaginative description of the evolution of a superintelligence passing through exponentially accelerating developmental stages ending in a transcendent, almost omnipotent power unfathomable by mere humans. His already mentioned influential 1993 paper on the technological singularity compactly summarizes the basic ideas.
+
数学家弗诺·文奇(Vernor Vinge)在科幻小说《实时放逐》(1986)中讲述了一个技术以指数级的速度突飞猛进，导致越来越多越来越复杂的新技术越来越快的速度出现在人们的生活中，直到技术的发展超越了人类理解能力的极限。随后，他在斩获雨果奖的小说《深渊之火》(1992)中，通过丰富的想象，揭开了一个超级智能文明访问正值科技暴涨，无所不能的人类文明。他在1993年发表的《技术奇点》的文章中也提纲挈领地概述了这个故事。
−
 
  −
文奇的指数加速变化数学家文奇在科幻小说《实时放逐》(1986)中推广了他关于指数加速技术变化的想法，故事发生在一个快速加速发展的世界，导致出现越来越多的复杂技术，间隔时间越来越短，直到达到一个超出人类理解的点。他随后的雨果获奖小说《深渊之火》(1992)以一个富有想象力的描述开始，描述了超级智能经过指数级加速发展阶段的进化，最终以一种超然的、几乎无所不能的、仅仅是人类无法理解的力量结束。他在1993年发表的一篇有影响力的论文《技术奇异点简明扼要地总结了基本思想。
  −
 
  −
==Kurzweil's ''The Law of Accelerating Returns''{{anchor|The Law of Accelerating Returns|Law of Accelerating Returns}}==
      
==Kurzweil's The Law of Accelerating Returns==
 
==Kurzweil's The Law of Accelerating Returns==
   −
= = 库兹韦尔加速回报定律 = =
+
= 库兹韦尔加速回报定律 =  
−
 
  −
In his 1999 book ''[[The Age of Spiritual Machines]]'', [[Ray Kurzweil]] proposed "The Law of Accelerating Returns", according to which the rate of change in a wide variety of evolutionary systems (including but not limited to the growth of technologies) tends to increase exponentially.<ref>Ray Kurzweil, ''The Age of Spiritual Machines'', Viking, 1999, [https://books.google.com/books?id=ldAGcyh0bkUC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA630#v=onepage&q&f=false p. 30] and [https://books.google.com/books?id=ldAGcyh0bkUC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA632#v=onepage&q&f=false p. 32]</ref> He gave further focus to this issue in a 2001 essay entitled "The Law of Accelerating Returns".<ref>[http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns ''The Law of Accelerating Returns'']. [[Ray Kurzweil]], March 7, 2001.</ref> In it, Kurzweil, after Moravec, argued for extending Moore's Law to describe [[exponential growth]] of diverse forms of [[technology|technological]] progress.  Whenever a technology approaches some kind of a barrier, according to Kurzweil, a new technology will be invented to allow us to cross that barrier. He cites numerous past examples of this to substantiate his assertions. He predicts that such [[paradigm shift]]s have and will continue to become increasingly common, leading to "technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history". He believes the Law of Accelerating Returns implies that a [[technological singularity]] will occur before the end of the 21st century, around 2045. The essay begins:
  −
 
  −
In his 1999 book The Age of Spiritual Machines, Ray Kurzweil proposed "The Law of Accelerating Returns", according to which the rate of change in a wide variety of evolutionary systems (including but not limited to the growth of technologies) tends to increase exponentially.Ray Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines, Viking, 1999, p. 30 and p. 32 He gave further focus to this issue in a 2001 essay entitled "The Law of Accelerating Returns".The Law of Accelerating Returns. Ray Kurzweil, March 7, 2001. In it, Kurzweil, after Moravec, argued for extending Moore's Law to describe exponential growth of diverse forms of technological progress.  Whenever a technology approaches some kind of a barrier, according to Kurzweil, a new technology will be invented to allow us to cross that barrier. He cites numerous past examples of this to substantiate his assertions. He predicts that such paradigm shifts have and will continue to become increasingly common, leading to "technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history". He believes the Law of Accelerating Returns implies that a technological singularity will occur before the end of the 21st century, around 2045. The essay begins:
     −
在1999年出版的《精神机器时代》(The Age of Spiritual Machines)一书中，雷•库兹韦尔(Ray Kurzweil)提出了“加速回报法则”(The Law of Accelerating Returns) ，根据这一法则，各种进化系统(包括但不限于技术的发展)中的变化率往往呈指数增长。Ray Kurzweil，The Age of Spiritual Machines，Viking，1999，p. 30 and p. 32 He gave further focus to this issue in a 2001“ The Law of Accelerating Returns”。加速回报定律。雷 · 库兹韦尔，2001年3月7日。在这篇文章中，继莫拉维克之后，库兹韦尔主张扩展摩尔定律来描述技术进步的各种形式的指数增长。按照库兹韦尔的说法，每当一项技术接近某种障碍时，就会有一项新技术被发明出来，使我们能够跨越这个障碍。他引用了大量过去的例子来证明他的观点。他预测，这种范式转变已经并将继续变得越来越普遍，导致“技术变革如此迅速和深刻，代表着人类历史结构的断裂”。他相信加速回报定律意味着技术奇异点将在21世纪末，也就是2045年左右出现。文章开头写道:
+
In his 1999 book ''[[The Age of Spiritual Machines]]'', [[Ray Kurzweil]] proposed "The Law of Accelerating Returns", according to which the rate of change in a wide variety of evolutionary systems (including but not limited to the growth of technologies) tends to increase exponentially.<ref name=":0">Ray Kurzweil, ''The Age of Spiritual Machines'', Viking, 1999, [https://books.google.com/books?id=ldAGcyh0bkUC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA630#v=onepage&q&f=false p. 30] and [https://books.google.com/books?id=ldAGcyh0bkUC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA632#v=onepage&q&f=false p. 32]</ref> He gave further focus to this issue in a 2001 essay entitled "The Law of Accelerating Returns".<ref name=":1">[http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns ''The Law of Accelerating Returns'']. [[Ray Kurzweil]], March 7, 2001.</ref> In it, Kurzweil, after Moravec, argued for extending Moore's Law to describe [[exponential growth]] of diverse forms of [[technology|technological]] progress.  Whenever a technology approaches some kind of a barrier, according to Kurzweil, a new technology will be invented to allow us to cross that barrier. He cites numerous past examples of this to substantiate his assertions. He predicts that such [[paradigm shift]]s have and will continue to become increasingly common, leading to "technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history". He believes the Law of Accelerating Returns implies that a [[technological singularity]] will occur before the end of the 21st century, around 2045. The essay begins:
   −
{{quote|An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense 'intuitive linear' view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century—it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). The 'returns,' such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There's even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to the Singularity—technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.}}
+
1999年，库兹韦尔(Ray Kurzweil)出版了《精神机器时代》(The Age of Spiritual Machines)，在书中他提出了“加速回报法则”(The Law of Accelerating Returns) 。这个法则描述了各种具有进化能力的系统(包括但不限于技术增长)，其发展的速度呈现出指数增长的规律。<ref name=":0" /> 2001年，库兹韦尔发表了题为《加速回报法则》的论文，专门讨论了这个问题。<ref name=":1" />  在这篇论文中，库兹韦尔采用了和莫拉维克一样的方法，把摩尔定律扩展到更加普遍性的技术发展行业。库兹韦尔认为，每当一项技术接近某种障碍时，就会有一项新技术发明问世，跨越技术障碍。他援引了大量的例子来说明他的论点。他预言这种范式转移的情况已经非常普遍了，未来会越来越明显，到某一个节点“技术变革异常迅速而深刻，人类历史将会由此断裂”。他认为，加速回报定律意味着技术奇点将在2045年左右出现。
−
 
  −
{{Multiple image
  −
| direction= vertical
  −
| image1 = PPTMooresLawai.jpg
  −
| caption1 = Moore's Law expanded to other technologies.
  −
| image2 = Moore's_Law_over_120_Years.png
  −
| caption2 = An updated version of Moore's Law over 120 Years (based on [[Ray Kurzweil|Kurzweil's]] [[c:File:PPTMooresLawai.jpg|graph]]). The 7 most recent data points are all [[Nvidia GPUs]].
  −
}}
  −
The Law of Accelerating Returns has in many ways altered public perception of [[Moore's law]]. {{citation needed|date=May 2015}} It is a common (but mistaken) belief that Moore's law makes predictions regarding all forms of technology,{{citation needed|date=May 2013}} when really it only concerns semiconductor circuits. Many [[futurist]]s still use the term "Moore's law" to describe ideas like those put forth by Moravec, Kurzweil and others.
         
The Law of Accelerating Returns has in many ways altered public perception of Moore's law.  It is a common (but mistaken) belief that Moore's law makes predictions regarding all forms of technology, when really it only concerns semiconductor circuits. Many futurists still use the term "Moore's law" to describe ideas like those put forth by Moravec, Kurzweil and others.
 
The Law of Accelerating Returns has in many ways altered public perception of Moore's law.  It is a common (but mistaken) belief that Moore's law makes predictions regarding all forms of technology, when really it only concerns semiconductor circuits. Many futurists still use the term "Moore's law" to describe ideas like those put forth by Moravec, Kurzweil and others.
   −
加速回报定律在许多方面改变了公众对摩尔定律的看法。人们普遍(但错误地)认为，摩尔定律对所有形式的技术都做出了预测，而实际上它只涉及到半导体电路。许多未来学家仍然使用“摩尔定律”来描述像莫拉维克、库兹韦尔和其他人提出的想法。
+
库兹韦尔的加速回报定律流行较广，改变了人们对摩尔定律的认识。公众误以为摩尔定律是关于各种形式的技术进展的预测规律。但摩尔定律只是对半导体集成电路的发展规律做了预测。但许多未来学家仍然用“摩尔定律”来描述莫拉维克、库兹韦尔和其他人提出的想法。
    
According to Kurzweil, since the beginning of [[evolution]], more complex life forms have been evolving exponentially faster, with shorter and shorter intervals between the emergence of radically new life forms, such as human beings, who have the capacity to engineer (i.e. intentionally design with efficiency) a new trait which replaces relatively blind evolutionary mechanisms of selection for efficiency. By extension, the rate of technical progress amongst humans has also been exponentially increasing, as we discover more effective ways to do things, we also discover more effective ways to learn, i.e. [[language]], numbers, written language, [[philosophy]], [[scientific method]], instruments of observation, tallying devices, mechanical calculators, computers, each of these major advances in our ability to account for information occur increasingly close together. Already within the past sixty years, life in the industrialized world has changed almost beyond recognition except for living memories from the first half of the 20th century. This pattern will culminate in unimaginable technological progress in the 21st century, leading to a singularity. Kurzweil elaborates on his views in his books ''The Age of Spiritual Machines'' and ''[[The Singularity Is Near]]''.
 
According to Kurzweil, since the beginning of [[evolution]], more complex life forms have been evolving exponentially faster, with shorter and shorter intervals between the emergence of radically new life forms, such as human beings, who have the capacity to engineer (i.e. intentionally design with efficiency) a new trait which replaces relatively blind evolutionary mechanisms of selection for efficiency. By extension, the rate of technical progress amongst humans has also been exponentially increasing, as we discover more effective ways to do things, we also discover more effective ways to learn, i.e. [[language]], numbers, written language, [[philosophy]], [[scientific method]], instruments of observation, tallying devices, mechanical calculators, computers, each of these major advances in our ability to account for information occur increasingly close together. Already within the past sixty years, life in the industrialized world has changed almost beyond recognition except for living memories from the first half of the 20th century. This pattern will culminate in unimaginable technological progress in the 21st century, leading to a singularity. Kurzweil elaborates on his views in his books ''The Age of Spiritual Machines'' and ''[[The Singularity Is Near]]''.
   −
According to Kurzweil, since the beginning of evolution, more complex life forms have been evolving exponentially faster, with shorter and shorter intervals between the emergence of radically new life forms, such as human beings, who have the capacity to engineer (i.e. intentionally design with efficiency) a new trait which replaces relatively blind evolutionary mechanisms of selection for efficiency. By extension, the rate of technical progress amongst humans has also been exponentially increasing, as we discover more effective ways to do things, we also discover more effective ways to learn, i.e. language, numbers, written language, philosophy, scientific method, instruments of observation, tallying devices, mechanical calculators, computers, each of these major advances in our ability to account for information occur increasingly close together. Already within the past sixty years, life in the industrialized world has changed almost beyond recognition except for living memories from the first half of the 20th century. This pattern will culminate in unimaginable technological progress in the 21st century, leading to a singularity. Kurzweil elaborates on his views in his books The Age of Spiritual Machines and The Singularity Is Near.
+
库兹韦尔说，自进化历史开端开始以来，新的复杂生命的形态就是指数级的速度在进化，演化出全新的生命形态所需要的时间越来越短。以人类为例，我们有改造环境的能力，能够有目的性地高效设计。这个新出现的生命特征，取代了相对盲目的通过进化机制来进行效率筛选。推而广之，人类技术进步的速度也在指数级增长，随着人们发明的高效的工具的增多，我们也发现了如何更有效地学习的工具：语言，数字，书写，哲学，科学方法，观察工具，计数装置，机械计算器，计算机等等。这些记录信息的工具的出现时间，越往后越短。在过去的60年里，工业化国家的生活已经发生了翻天覆地的变化，20世纪上半叶生活只存在记忆中了。在21世纪，技术进步会继续加速发展，直到达到巅峰的奇点。这些观点，库兹韦尔在《精神机器时代》和《奇点迫近》有详细阐述。
−
 
  −
据库兹韦尔说，自从进化开始以来，更复杂的生命形式以指数级的速度进化，在出现全新的生命形式之间的间隔时间越来越短，例如人类，他们有能力进行工程(即:。有意识地高效率地设计)一个新的特点，取代了相对盲目的进化机制的选择效率。推而广之，人类技术进步的速度也呈指数级增长，随着我们发现了更有效的做事方式，我们也发现了更有效的学习方式，即。语言，数字，书面语言，哲学，科学方法，观察工具，计数装置，机械计算器，计算机，我们记录信息能力的每一个重大进步，都越来越紧密地发生在一起。在过去的60年里，工业化世界的生活已经发生了翻天覆地的变化，除了20世纪上半叶的记忆。这种模式将在21世纪以难以想象的技术进步达到顶峰，导致一个奇点。库兹韦尔在他的著作《精神机器时代》和《奇点迫近阐述了他的观点。
  −
 
  −
==Limits of accelerating change==
  −
Applying a scientific approach, we will notice in natural science that it is typical that processes characterized by exponential acceleration in their initial stages go into the saturation phase. This clearly makes it possible to realize that if an increase with acceleration is observed over a certain period of time, this does not mean an endless continuation of this process. On the contrary, in many cases this means an early exit to the plateau of speed. The processes occurring in natural science allow us to suggest that the observed picture of accelerating scientific and technological progress, after some time (in physical processes, as a rule, is short) will be replaced by a slowdown and a complete stop? Despite the possible termination / attenuation of the acceleration of the progress of science and technology in the foreseeable future, progress itself, and as a result, social transformations, will not stop or even slow down - it will continue with the achieved (possibly huge) speed, which has become constant.<ref>[https://philosophyjournal.spbu.ru/article/view/3182/2943 Shestakova I.' To the Question of the Limits of Progress: Is a Singularity Possible?.]</ref>
     −
Applying a scientific approach, we will notice in natural science that it is typical that processes characterized by exponential acceleration in their initial stages go into the saturation phase. This clearly makes it possible to realize that if an increase with acceleration is observed over a certain period of time, this does not mean an endless continuation of this process. On the contrary, in many cases this means an early exit to the plateau of speed. The processes occurring in natural science allow us to suggest that the observed picture of accelerating scientific and technological progress, after some time (in physical processes, as a rule, is short) will be replaced by a slowdown and a complete stop? Despite the possible termination / attenuation of the acceleration of the progress of science and technology in the foreseeable future, progress itself, and as a result, social transformations, will not stop or even slow down - it will continue with the achieved (possibly huge) speed, which has become constant.Shestakova I.' To the Question of the Limits of Progress: Is a Singularity Possible?.
+
==Limits of accelerating change （加速变化的极限）==
 +
Applying a scientific approach, we will notice in natural science that it is typical that processes characterized by exponential acceleration in their initial stages go into the saturation phase. This clearly makes it possible to realize that if an increase with acceleration is observed over a certain period of time, this does not mean an endless continuation of this process. On the contrary, in many cases this means an early exit to the plateau of speed. The processes occurring in natural science allow us to suggest that the observed picture of accelerating scientific and technological progress, after some time (in physical processes, as a rule, is short) will be replaced by a slowdown and a complete stop? Despite the possible termination / attenuation of the acceleration of the progress of science and technology in the foreseeable future, progress itself, and as a result, social transformations, will not stop or even slow down - it will continue with the achieved (possibly huge) speed, which has become constant.<ref name=":2">[https://philosophyjournal.spbu.ru/article/view/3182/2943 Shestakova I.' To the Question of the Limits of Progress: Is a Singularity Possible?.]</ref>
   −
加速变化的极限运用科学的方法，我们将注意到在自然科学中，拥有属性指数加速在其初始阶段进入饱和阶段是很典型的。这显然使我们有可能认识到，如果在一段时间内观察到加速度的增加，这并不意味着这一过程无休止地继续下去。相反，在许多情况下，这意味着提前退出速度高原。自然科学中发生的过程使我们可以认为，观察到的加速科学和技术进步的图景，在一段时间之后(在物理过程中，通常是短暂的) ，将被减速和完全停止所取代？尽管在可预见的将来，科学和技术的加速进步可能会终止/减缓，但是进步本身，以及因此而产生的社会变革，将不会停止，甚至不会减缓——它将以已经达到的(可能是巨大的)速度继续下去，而这种速度已经不变。谢斯塔科娃一世关于进步的局限性的问题: 奇点是可能的吗。
+
如果我们用科学的方法去分析自然科学中存在的一个过程，我们不难发现，那些最初阶段表现出指数增长这一特性的过程，最后都会进入饱和的状态。也就是说，如果我们观察到一个事物在一段时间以指数级的速度增长，这并不意味着这一过程会无休止地继续下去。相反，在许多情况下，这意味着提前达到饱和。从我们在自然科学中发现的规律来看，事物在一段时间的加速增长后(在物理过程中，这个阶段往往都是短暂的)，将会减缓甚至完全停滞？尽管在可预见的将来，科学和技术的加速进步可能会减缓，终结，但人类不会停止追求进步的脚步，因此社会社会变革也会持续以目前所达到的速度继续向前。<ref name=":2" />
   −
Accelerating change may not be restricted to the [[Anthropocene]] Epoch,<ref>{{Cite journal|title=The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration|journal=The Anthropocene Review|volume=2|pages=81–98|doi=10.1177/2053019614564785|year = 2015|last1 = Steffen|first1 = Will|last2=Broadgate|first2=Wendy|last3=Deutsch|first3=Lisa|last4=Gaffney|first4=Owen|last5=Ludwig|first5=Cornelia|hdl=1885/66463|s2cid=131524600|url=https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/66463/8/01_Steffen_GREAT%20ACCELERATION_2015.pdf|hdl-access=free}}</ref> but a general and predictable developmental feature of the universe.<ref name="auto">{{Cite book| publisher = Government Printing Office, NASA SP-2009-4802| pages = 201–295| editor1 = S. J. Dick| editor2 = Mark L. Lupisella| last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = Cosmos and Culture: Cultural Evolution in a Cosmic Context| chapter = Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture.| location = Washington D.C.| date = 2009| chapter-url = http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartEvoDevoUniv2008.pdf| access-date = 2017-03-15| archive-date = 2017-01-24| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20170124023933/http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartEvoDevoUniv2008.pdf| url-status = dead}}</ref> The physical processes that generate an acceleration such as Moore's law are positive feedback loops giving rise to exponential or superexponential technological change.<ref>{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.07.006| issn = 0040-1625| volume = 78| issue = 8| pages = 1356–1364| last1 = Nagy| first1 = Béla| last2 = Farmer| first2 = J. Doyne| last3 = Trancik| first3 = Jessika E.| last4 = Gonzales| first4 = John Paul| title = Superexponential Long-Term Trends in Information Technology| journal = Technological Forecasting and Social Change| access-date = 2013-07-09| date = October 2011| url = http://www.santafe.edu/media/workingpapers/10-11-030.pdf| hdl = 1721.1/105411| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20140410202145/http://www.santafe.edu/media/workingpapers/10-11-030.pdf| archive-date = 2014-04-10| url-status = dead| hdl-access = free}}</ref> These dynamics lead to increasingly efficient and dense configurations of Space, Time, Energy, and Matter (STEM efficiency and density, or STEM "compression").<ref name="auto1">{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.actaastro.2011.11.006| issn = 0094-5765| volume = 78| pages = 55–68| last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = The Transcension Hypothesis: Sufficiently advanced civilizations invariably leave our universe, and implications for METI and SETI| journal = Acta Astronautica| url = http://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html| bibcode = 2012AcAau..78...55S| year = 2012| citeseerx = 10.1.1.695.2737| access-date = 2014-01-04| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20130922181839/http://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html| archive-date = 2013-09-22| url-status = dead}}</ref> At the physical limit, this developmental process of accelerating change leads to black hole density organizations, a conclusion also reached by studies of the ultimate physical limits of computation in the universe.<ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 406| issue = 6799| pages = 1047–1054| last = Lloyd| first = S.| title = Ultimate Physical Limits to Computation| journal = Nature| date = 2000| arxiv = quant-ph/9908043| bibcode = 2000Natur.406.1047L| doi = 10.1038/35023282| pmid = 10984064| s2cid = 75923}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Penguin Books| last = Kurzweil| first = R.| title = The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology| url = https://archive.org/details/singularityisnea00kurz_214| url-access = limited| date = 2005| page=[https://archive.org/details/singularityisnea00kurz_214/page/n361 362]}}</ref>
+
Accelerating change may not be restricted to the [[Anthropocene]] Epoch,<ref>{{Cite journal|title=The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration|journal=The Anthropocene Review|volume=2|pages=81–98|doi=10.1177/2053019614564785|year = 2015|last1 = Steffen|first1 = Will|last2=Broadgate|first2=Wendy|last3=Deutsch|first3=Lisa|last4=Gaffney|first4=Owen|last5=Ludwig|first5=Cornelia|hdl=1885/66463|s2cid=131524600|url=https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/66463/8/01_Steffen_GREAT%20ACCELERATION_2015.pdf|hdl-access=free}}</ref> but a general and predictable developmental feature of the universe.<ref name="auto">{{Cite book| publisher = Government Printing Office, NASA SP-2009-4802| pages = 201–295| editor1 = S. J. Dick| editor2 = Mark L. Lupisella| last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = Cosmos and Culture: Cultural Evolution in a Cosmic Context| chapter = Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture.| location = Washington D.C.| date = 2009| chapter-url = http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartEvoDevoUniv2008.pdf| access-date = 2017-03-15| archive-date = 2017-01-24| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20170124023933/http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartEvoDevoUniv2008.pdf| url-status = dead}}</ref> The physical processes that generate an acceleration such as Moore's law are positive feedback loops giving rise to exponential or superexponential technological change.<ref name=":3">{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.07.006| issn = 0040-1625| volume = 78| issue = 8| pages = 1356–1364| last1 = Nagy| first1 = Béla| last2 = Farmer| first2 = J. Doyne| last3 = Trancik| first3 = Jessika E.| last4 = Gonzales| first4 = John Paul| title = Superexponential Long-Term Trends in Information Technology| journal = Technological Forecasting and Social Change| access-date = 2013-07-09| date = October 2011| url = http://www.santafe.edu/media/workingpapers/10-11-030.pdf| hdl = 1721.1/105411| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20140410202145/http://www.santafe.edu/media/workingpapers/10-11-030.pdf| archive-date = 2014-04-10| url-status = dead| hdl-access = free}}</ref> These dynamics lead to increasingly efficient and dense configurations of Space, Time, Energy, and Matter (STEM efficiency and density, or STEM "compression").<ref name="auto1">{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.actaastro.2011.11.006| issn = 0094-5765| volume = 78| pages = 55–68| last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = The Transcension Hypothesis: Sufficiently advanced civilizations invariably leave our universe, and implications for METI and SETI| journal = Acta Astronautica| url = http://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html| bibcode = 2012AcAau..78...55S| year = 2012| citeseerx = 10.1.1.695.2737| access-date = 2014-01-04| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20130922181839/http://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html| archive-date = 2013-09-22| url-status = dead}}</ref> At the physical limit, this developmental process of accelerating change leads to black hole density organizations, a conclusion also reached by studies of the ultimate physical limits of computation in the universe.<ref name=":4">{{Cite journal| volume = 406| issue = 6799| pages = 1047–1054| last = Lloyd| first = S.| title = Ultimate Physical Limits to Computation| journal = Nature| date = 2000| arxiv = quant-ph/9908043| bibcode = 2000Natur.406.1047L| doi = 10.1038/35023282| pmid = 10984064| s2cid = 75923}}</ref><ref name=":5">{{Cite book| publisher = Penguin Books| last = Kurzweil| first = R.| title = The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology| url = https://archive.org/details/singularityisnea00kurz_214| url-access = limited| date = 2005| page=[https://archive.org/details/singularityisnea00kurz_214/page/n361 362]}}</ref>
   −
Accelerating change may not be restricted to the Anthropocene Epoch, but a general and predictable developmental feature of the universe. The physical processes that generate an acceleration such as Moore's law are positive feedback loops giving rise to exponential or superexponential technological change. These dynamics lead to increasingly efficient and dense configurations of Space, Time, Energy, and Matter (STEM efficiency and density, or STEM "compression"). At the physical limit, this developmental process of accelerating change leads to black hole density organizations, a conclusion also reached by studies of the ultimate physical limits of computation in the universe.
+
这种加速变化的现象可能不局限于人类世，也许这是宇宙普遍的、可预见的发展特征。<ref name="auto" /> 产生加速变化的物理过程，如摩尔定律，实质上是一个正反馈体系。<ref name=":3" /> 这样的动力机制导致了日益高效和密集的对空间、时间、能量和物质(STEM 效率和密度，STEM“压缩”)的配置。<ref name="auto1" /> 在物理世界，这种加速变化的发展过程最终会导致黑洞密度的组织。研究宇宙中物理计算的极限的研究者也得出了同样的结论。<ref name=":4" /><ref name=":5" />
   −
加速变化可能不局限于人类世时代，而是宇宙一个普遍的、可预测的发展特征。产生加速度的物理过程，如摩尔定律，是正反馈循环，引起指数或超指数的技术变革。这些动态导致了空间、时间、能量和物质(STEM 效率和密度，或 STEM“压缩”)的日益高效和密集的配置。在物理极限下，这种加速变化的发展过程导致了黑洞密度的组织，这也是对宇宙中计算的终极物理极限的研究得出的结论。
+
Applying this vision to the [[search for extraterrestrial intelligence]] leads to the idea that advanced intelligent life reconfigures itself into a black hole. Such advanced life forms would be interested in inner space, rather than outer space and interstellar expansion.<ref name=":6">{{Cite journal| issn = 0007-084X| volume = 61| issue = 7| pages = 246–254| last = Ćirković| first = Milan M.| title = Against the Empire| journal = Journal of the British Interplanetary Society| date = 2008| arxiv = 0805.1821| bibcode = 2008JBIS...61..246C}}</ref> They would thus in some way transcend reality, not be observable and it would be a solution to [[Fermi paradox|Fermi's paradox]] called the "transcension hypothesis".<ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer International Publishing| isbn = 978-3-319-13235-8 | last = Webb| first = Stephen| title = If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... Where Is Everybody?| location = Cham| series = Science and Fiction| date = 2015| pages = 203–206}}</ref><ref name="auto" /><ref name="auto1" /> Another solution is that the black holes we observe could actually be interpreted as intelligent super-civilizations feeding on stars, or "stellivores".<ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer International Publishing| isbn = 978-3-319-13235-8 | last = Webb| first = Stephen| title = If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... Where Is Everybody?| location = Cham| series = Science and Fiction| date = 2015| pages = 196–200}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.actaastro.2016.06.038| issn = 0094-5765| volume = 128| pages = 251–256| last = Vidal| first = C.| title = Stellivore extraterrestrials? Binary stars as living systems| journal = Acta Astronautica| date = 2016| bibcode = 2016AcAau.128..251V| url = https://zenodo.org/record/164853}}</ref>  
−
 
  −
Applying this vision to the [[search for extraterrestrial intelligence]] leads to the idea that advanced intelligent life reconfigures itself into a black hole. Such advanced life forms would be interested in inner space, rather than outer space and interstellar expansion.<ref>{{Cite journal| issn = 0007-084X| volume = 61| issue = 7| pages = 246–254| last = Ćirković| first = Milan M.| title = Against the Empire| journal = Journal of the British Interplanetary Society| date = 2008| arxiv = 0805.1821| bibcode = 2008JBIS...61..246C}}</ref> They would thus in some way transcend reality, not be observable and it would be a solution to [[Fermi paradox|Fermi's paradox]] called the "transcension hypothesis".<ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer International Publishing| isbn = 978-3-319-13235-8 | last = Webb| first = Stephen| title = If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... Where Is Everybody?| location = Cham| series = Science and Fiction| date = 2015| pages = 203–206}}</ref><ref name="auto"/><ref name="auto1"/> Another solution is that the black holes we observe could actually be interpreted as intelligent super-civilizations feeding on stars, or "stellivores".<ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer International Publishing| isbn = 978-3-319-13235-8 | last = Webb| first = Stephen| title = If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... Where Is Everybody?| location = Cham| series = Science and Fiction| date = 2015| pages = 196–200}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1016/j.actaastro.2016.06.038| issn = 0094-5765| volume = 128| pages = 251–256| last = Vidal| first = C.| title = Stellivore extraterrestrials? Binary stars as living systems| journal = Acta Astronautica| date = 2016| bibcode = 2016AcAau.128..251V| url = https://zenodo.org/record/164853}}</ref>  
   
This dynamics of evolution and development is an invitation to study the universe itself as evolving, developing.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.evodevouniverse.com|title=Evo Devo Universe Community|access-date=2018-04-25}}</ref> If the universe is a kind of superorganism, it may possibly tend to reproduce, naturally<ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 9| issue = 1| pages = 173–191| last = Smolin| first = Lee| title = Did the universe evolve?| journal = Classical and Quantum Gravity| date = 1992| bibcode = 1992CQGra...9..173S| doi = 10.1088/0264-9381/9/1/016}}</ref> or artificially, with intelligent life playing a role.<ref>{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1007/s10699-010-9182-y| issn = 1233-1821| volume = 15| issue = 4| pages = 369–373| last = Crane| first = Louis| title = Possible Implications of the Quantum Theory of Gravity: An Introduction to the Meduso-Anthropic Principle| journal = Foundations of Science| date = 2010| arxiv = hep-th/9402104| s2cid = 118422569}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 36| issue = 3| pages = 193–203| last = Harrison| first = E. R.| title = The Natural Selection of Universes Containing Intelligent Life| journal = Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society| date = 1995| bibcode = 1995QJRAS..36..193H}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 5| issue = 3| pages = 34–45| last = Gardner| first = J. N.| title = The Selfish Biocosm: complexity as cosmology| journal = Complexity| date = 2000| doi=10.1002/(sici)1099-0526(200001/02)5:3<34::aid-cplx7>3.0.co;2-8| bibcode = 2000Cmplx...5c..34G}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Government Printing Office, NASA SP-2009-4802| pages = 201–295| editor1 = S. J. Dick |editor2= Mark L. Lupisella | last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = Cosmos and Culture: Cultural Evolution in a Cosmic Context| chapter = Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture.| location = Washington D.C.| date = 2009}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer| isbn = 978-3-319-05061-4| last = Vidal| first = C.| title = The Beginning and the End: The Meaning of Life in a Cosmological Perspective| location = New York| date = 2014| arxiv = 1301.1648| bibcode = 2013PhDT.........2V| doi = 10.1007/978-3-319-05062-1| series = The Frontiers Collection| s2cid = 118419030| url = http://cds.cern.ch/record/1748203| type = Submitted manuscript}}</ref>
 
This dynamics of evolution and development is an invitation to study the universe itself as evolving, developing.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.evodevouniverse.com|title=Evo Devo Universe Community|access-date=2018-04-25}}</ref> If the universe is a kind of superorganism, it may possibly tend to reproduce, naturally<ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 9| issue = 1| pages = 173–191| last = Smolin| first = Lee| title = Did the universe evolve?| journal = Classical and Quantum Gravity| date = 1992| bibcode = 1992CQGra...9..173S| doi = 10.1088/0264-9381/9/1/016}}</ref> or artificially, with intelligent life playing a role.<ref>{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1007/s10699-010-9182-y| issn = 1233-1821| volume = 15| issue = 4| pages = 369–373| last = Crane| first = Louis| title = Possible Implications of the Quantum Theory of Gravity: An Introduction to the Meduso-Anthropic Principle| journal = Foundations of Science| date = 2010| arxiv = hep-th/9402104| s2cid = 118422569}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 36| issue = 3| pages = 193–203| last = Harrison| first = E. R.| title = The Natural Selection of Universes Containing Intelligent Life| journal = Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society| date = 1995| bibcode = 1995QJRAS..36..193H}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal| volume = 5| issue = 3| pages = 34–45| last = Gardner| first = J. N.| title = The Selfish Biocosm: complexity as cosmology| journal = Complexity| date = 2000| doi=10.1002/(sici)1099-0526(200001/02)5:3<34::aid-cplx7>3.0.co;2-8| bibcode = 2000Cmplx...5c..34G}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Government Printing Office, NASA SP-2009-4802| pages = 201–295| editor1 = S. J. Dick |editor2= Mark L. Lupisella | last = Smart| first = J. M.| title = Cosmos and Culture: Cultural Evolution in a Cosmic Context| chapter = Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture.| location = Washington D.C.| date = 2009}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book| publisher = Springer| isbn = 978-3-319-05061-4| last = Vidal| first = C.| title = The Beginning and the End: The Meaning of Life in a Cosmological Perspective| location = New York| date = 2014| arxiv = 1301.1648| bibcode = 2013PhDT.........2V| doi = 10.1007/978-3-319-05062-1| series = The Frontiers Collection| s2cid = 118419030| url = http://cds.cern.ch/record/1748203| type = Submitted manuscript}}</ref>
   −
Applying this vision to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence leads to the idea that advanced intelligent life reconfigures itself into a black hole. Such advanced life forms would be interested in inner space, rather than outer space and interstellar expansion. They would thus in some way transcend reality, not be observable and it would be a solution to Fermi's paradox called the "transcension hypothesis". Another solution is that the black holes we observe could actually be interpreted as intelligent super-civilizations feeding on stars, or "stellivores".
+
如果我们把这一推想运用到地外文明的搜索努力中，我们就会得到高级智能生命是以黑洞的形式存在的。这样的高级生命形态可能不会过多地关注星外空间和星际扩张，而会更加关注黑洞的内部空间。<ref name=":6" /> 因此，它们将在某种程度上超越我们所理解的现实，而隐匿于我们的观察范围之外。这个理论，被冠名为“超越假说”，很好地解开了费米悖论。除了超越假说，另一个解决方案就是假设我们观察到的黑洞实际上可以理解为是一个吞食恒星的智能超文明，或“星食动物”。这种演化发展动力学鼓励研究者将宇宙自身当做是一个不断演化和发展的超体生命。如果宇宙是某种超体生命，它可能也会自然地或借助人工进行繁殖，而生活于其间的智能生命不可或缺。
−
This dynamics of evolution and development is an invitation to study the universe itself as evolving, developing. If the universe is a kind of superorganism, it may possibly tend to reproduce, naturally or artificially, with intelligent life playing a role.
  −
 
  −
将这一观点应用于搜寻地外文明计划生命系统，导致了先进智慧生命将自身重组为黑洞的观点。这种先进的生命形式会对内部空间感兴趣，而不是外层空间和星际扩张。因此，它们将在某种程度上超越现实，不可观测，这将是一个解决费米悖论所谓的“超越假说”。另一个解决方案是，我们观察到的黑洞实际上可以被解释为以恒星为食的智能超级文明，或称为“星食动物”。这种进化和发展的动力学是一种邀请，邀请我们研究宇宙本身的进化和发展。如果宇宙是一种超有机体，那么它可能倾向于自然地或人为地繁殖，而智能生命扮演着一个角色。
      
==Other estimates==
 
==Other estimates==
 
Dramatic changes in the rate of economic growth have occurred in the past because of some technological advancement. Based on population growth, the economy doubled every 250,000 years from the [[Paleolithic]] era until the [[Neolithic Revolution]]. The new agricultural economy doubled every 900 years, a remarkable increase. In the current era, beginning with the Industrial Revolution, the world's economic output doubles every fifteen years, sixty times faster than during the agricultural era. If the rise of superhuman intelligence causes a similar revolution, argues Robin Hanson, then one would expect the economy to double at least quarterly and possibly on a weekly basis.<ref name="Hanson">{{Citation |url=http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/robotics-software/economics-of-the-singularity |title=Economics Of The Singularity |author=Robin Hanson |work=IEEE Spectrum Special Report: The Singularity |access-date=2020-04-23 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110811005825/http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/robotics-software/economics-of-the-singularity |archive-date=2011-08-11 |url-status=dead }} & [http://hanson.gmu.edu/longgrow.pdf Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes]</ref>
 
Dramatic changes in the rate of economic growth have occurred in the past because of some technological advancement. Based on population growth, the economy doubled every 250,000 years from the [[Paleolithic]] era until the [[Neolithic Revolution]]. The new agricultural economy doubled every 900 years, a remarkable increase. In the current era, beginning with the Industrial Revolution, the world's economic output doubles every fifteen years, sixty times faster than during the agricultural era. If the rise of superhuman intelligence causes a similar revolution, argues Robin Hanson, then one would expect the economy to double at least quarterly and possibly on a weekly basis.<ref name="Hanson">{{Citation |url=http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/robotics-software/economics-of-the-singularity |title=Economics Of The Singularity |author=Robin Hanson |work=IEEE Spectrum Special Report: The Singularity |access-date=2020-04-23 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110811005825/http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/robotics-software/economics-of-the-singularity |archive-date=2011-08-11 |url-status=dead }} & [http://hanson.gmu.edu/longgrow.pdf Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes]</ref>
   −
Dramatic changes in the rate of economic growth have occurred in the past because of some technological advancement. Based on population growth, the economy doubled every 250,000 years from the Paleolithic era until the Neolithic Revolution. The new agricultural economy doubled every 900 years, a remarkable increase. In the current era, beginning with the Industrial Revolution, the world's economic output doubles every fifteen years, sixty times faster than during the agricultural era. If the rise of superhuman intelligence causes a similar revolution, argues Robin Hanson, then one would expect the economy to double at least quarterly and possibly on a weekly basis. & Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes
+
在过去，技术的进步带来了巨大的经济腾飞。如果用人口增长这个指标来衡量经济水平的话，旧石器时代到新石器时代，经济每25万年翻一番。新的农业技术的出现，让经济显著增长，每900年就翻一番。在当代，从工业革命开始，世界经济总值每15年就翻一番，比农业文明时代快60倍。罗宾 · 汉森(Robin Hanson)认为，如果超级智能的增长引发一场类似的革命的话，那么经济总量可能每季度甚至每周就能翻一番。<ref name="Hanson" />
−
 
  −
过去由于某些技术进步，经济增长率发生了巨大的变化。基于人口增长，从旧石器时代到21新石器革命，经济每25万年翻一番。新农业经济每900年翻一番，是一个显著的增长。在当今时代，从工业革命开始，世界经济产出每15年翻一番，比农业时代快60倍。罗宾 · 汉森认为，如果超人智力的增长引发了一场类似的革命，那么人们就会预期经济至少每季度翻一番，甚至可能每周翻一番。长期增长作为一系列指数模式
      
In his 1981 book [[Critical Path (book)|Critical Path]], futurist and inventor [[R. Buckminster Fuller]] estimated that if we took all the knowledge that mankind had accumulated and transmitted by the year One CE as equal to one unit of information, it probably took about 1500 years (or until the sixteenth century) for that amount of knowledge to double. The next doubling of knowledge from two to four 'knowledge units' took only 250 years, until about 1750 CE. By 1900, one hundred and fifty years later, knowledge had doubled again to 8 units. The observed speed at which information doubled was getting faster and faster.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Fuller |first1=Buckminster |title=Critical Path |url=https://archive.org/details/criticalpath00full |url-access=registration |date=1981 |isbn=0312174918}}</ref>
 
In his 1981 book [[Critical Path (book)|Critical Path]], futurist and inventor [[R. Buckminster Fuller]] estimated that if we took all the knowledge that mankind had accumulated and transmitted by the year One CE as equal to one unit of information, it probably took about 1500 years (or until the sixteenth century) for that amount of knowledge to double. The next doubling of knowledge from two to four 'knowledge units' took only 250 years, until about 1750 CE. By 1900, one hundred and fifty years later, knowledge had doubled again to 8 units. The observed speed at which information doubled was getting faster and faster.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Fuller |first1=Buckminster |title=Critical Path |url=https://archive.org/details/criticalpath00full |url-access=registration |date=1981 |isbn=0312174918}}</ref>
 
In modern times, exponential knowledge progressions therefore change at an ever-increasing rate. Depending on the progression, this tends to lead toward explosive growth at some point. A simple exponential curve that represents this accelerating change phenomenon could be modeled by a [[Exponential function|doubling function]]. This fast rate of knowledge doubling leads up to the basic proposed [[hypothesis]] of the [[technological singularity]]: the rate at which technology progression surpasses human biological evolution.
 
In modern times, exponential knowledge progressions therefore change at an ever-increasing rate. Depending on the progression, this tends to lead toward explosive growth at some point. A simple exponential curve that represents this accelerating change phenomenon could be modeled by a [[Exponential function|doubling function]]. This fast rate of knowledge doubling leads up to the basic proposed [[hypothesis]] of the [[technological singularity]]: the rate at which technology progression surpasses human biological evolution.
   −
In his 1981 book Critical Path, futurist and inventor R. Buckminster Fuller estimated that if we took all the knowledge that mankind had accumulated and transmitted by the year One CE as equal to one unit of information, it probably took about 1500 years (or until the sixteenth century) for that amount of knowledge to double. The next doubling of knowledge from two to four 'knowledge units' took only 250 years, until about 1750 CE. By 1900, one hundred and fifty years later, knowledge had doubled again to 8 units. The observed speed at which information doubled was getting faster and faster.
+
在他1981年出版的《关键路径》一书中，未来学家和发明家巴克敏斯特·富勒估计，如果我们把人类在公元一年前积累和传播的所有知识当作等于一个信息单位，那么大约需要1500年(或者直到16世纪) ，这个知识量才会翻倍。接下来的知识从两个翻倍到四个知识单位只用了250年，直到公元1750年左右。到1900年，150年后，知识再次翻倍，达到8个单位。观察到的信息翻倍的速度越来越快。在现代，知识的指数级数因此以不断增长的速度变化。根据进展，这往往导致爆炸性增长在某一点。代表这种加速变化现象的简单指数曲线可以用倍增函数来模拟。这种知识快速翻倍的速度导致了技术奇异点的基本假设: 技术进步超过人类生物进化的速度。
−
In modern times, exponential knowledge progressions therefore change at an ever-increasing rate. Depending on the progression, this tends to lead toward explosive growth at some point. A simple exponential curve that represents this accelerating change phenomenon could be modeled by a doubling function. This fast rate of knowledge doubling leads up to the basic proposed hypothesis of the technological singularity: the rate at which technology progression surpasses human biological evolution.
  −
 
  −
在他1981年出版的《关键路径》一书中，未来学家和发明家巴克敏斯特·福乐估计，如果我们把人类在公元一年前积累和传播的所有知识当作等于一个信息单位，那么大约需要1500年(或者直到16世纪) ，这个知识量才会翻倍。接下来的知识从两个翻倍到四个知识单位只用了250年，直到公元1750年左右。到1900年，150年后，知识再次翻倍，达到8个单位。观察到的信息翻倍的速度越来越快。在现代，知识的指数级数因此以不断增长的速度变化。根据进展，这往往导致爆炸性增长在某一点。代表这种加速变化现象的简单指数曲线可以用倍增函数来模拟。这种知识快速翻倍的速度导致了技术奇异点的基本假设: 技术进步超过人类生物进化的速度。
      
==Criticisms==
 
==Criticisms==
 
Both [[Theodore Modis]] and Jonathan Huebner have argued—each from different perspectives—that the rate of technological innovation has not only ceased to rise, but is actually now declining.<ref name="auto2">{{Cite journal |last=Korotayev |first=Andrey |year=2018 |title=The 21st Century Singularity and its Big History Implications: A re-analysis  |journal=Journal of Big History |volume=2 |issue=3 |pages=71–118|doi=10.22339/jbh.v2i3.2320 |doi-access=free }}</ref>
 
Both [[Theodore Modis]] and Jonathan Huebner have argued—each from different perspectives—that the rate of technological innovation has not only ceased to rise, but is actually now declining.<ref name="auto2">{{Cite journal |last=Korotayev |first=Andrey |year=2018 |title=The 21st Century Singularity and its Big History Implications: A re-analysis  |journal=Journal of Big History |volume=2 |issue=3 |pages=71–118|doi=10.22339/jbh.v2i3.2320 |doi-access=free }}</ref>
   −
Both Theodore Modis and Jonathan Huebner have argued—each from different perspectives—that the rate of technological innovation has not only ceased to rise, but is actually now declining.
+
西奥多 · 莫迪斯和乔纳森 · 休布纳分别从不同的角度分析了技术革新的速度，他们认为技术创新的速度已经开始下降了。<ref name="auto2" />
−
 
  −
西奥多 · 莫迪斯和乔纳森 · 休布纳都从不同的角度认为，技术创新的速度不仅停止了上升，而且实际上正在下降。
      
==Gallery==
 
==Gallery==
地衣
12

个编辑

取自“https://wiki.swarma.org/index.php/特殊:移动版差异/28506”